Fresh from Donald Trump’s victory party at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, it is an emboldened Nigel Farage who meets us at his latest Reform conference in Newport, South Wales.
“What a win!” He chirps, as the cameras are set up.
To be clear: Nigel Farage is not on the brink of becoming the next British prime minister, but there are undoubtedly parallels between the Reform leader and the US president-elect.
Both men are trying to tap into disillusioned “left behind” voters, both men are cutting through in rural communities and former industry heartlands. There are red MAGA hats on show at the Reform conference on Friday.
He is undeniably testy. “How much time does Keir Starmer spend in his constituency?” he shoots back, when I ask about missed budget votes while he was in the US.
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I remind him he is not yet prime minister.
“I have bought a house in Clacton! What more do you want!”
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Behind the scenes though, someone close to Mr Farage tells me he is struggling with the balance of being a constituency MP, leading Reform and pre-agreed (paid) commitments in the US.
“I honour the commitments, they were already there” he tells me, “I’ve taken far less on for next year”.
Image: Nigel Farage at the Reform UK Welsh Conference at the Celtic Manor hotel in Newport. Pic: PA
After our interview, a source close to him said: “Nigel has been to Clacton more than 10 times since being elected. Has kept his promise to have a property in the constituency. Writes a weekly column for the Clacton Gazette (10 weeks in a row). And is having two further visits next week.”
Another interesting, and at times uncomfortable, part of the interview is when I ask about Donald Trump’s position on Ukraine.
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But in truth it is not Mr Farage’s foreign, but his domestic policy that is what has brought people here on Friday.
The NHS, cost of living and immigration are the issues that come up again and again, and people here think the Reform leader has the answers: “He is just different,” one member says.
The Reform party clearly spots an opportunity in Wales. It won 16.9% of the vote share here, and launched its manifesto (or what it calls its “contract”) in Merthyr Tydfil.
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Despite winning no seats, they received a greater share of the vote than the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru.
Mr Farage’s team tell me he could win “20-plus” seats at the Senedd elections in 2026.
The elections for the Welsh parliament are part of Reform’s masterplan, a spring board for more coverage and ultimately more power.
After the interviews he bounces up for his seat and heads out to address the conference rally. The thousand or so members here can’t contain their excitement: for all the warm up acts, they’ve come here for one man.
In the confines of the Newport conference hall, Nigel Farage is preaching to the choir. His base has always been solid, whether he can really replicate something similar to Trump’s success is a very different question.
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Another hint that tax rises are coming in this autumn’s budget has been given by a senior minister.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander was asked if Sir Keir Starmer and the rest of the cabinet had discussed hiking taxes in the wake of the government’s failed welfare reforms, which were shot down by their own MPs.
Trevor Phillips asked specifically if tax rises were discussed among the cabinet last week – including on an away day on Friday.
Tax increases were not discussed “directly”, Ms Alexander said, but ministers were “cognisant” of the challenges facing them.
Asked what this means, Ms Alexander added: “I think your viewers would be surprised if we didn’t recognise that at the budget, the chancellor will need to look at the OBR forecast that is given to her and will make decisions in line with the fiscal rules that she has set out.
“We made a commitment in our manifesto not to be putting up taxes on people on modest incomes, working people. We have stuck to that.”
Ms Alexander said she wouldn’t comment directly on taxes and the budget at this point, adding: “So, the chancellor will set her budget. I’m not going to sit in a TV studio today and speculate on what the contents of that budget might be.
“When it comes to taxation, fairness is going to be our guiding principle.”
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Afterwards, shadow home secretary Chris Philp told Phillips: “That sounds to me like a barely disguised reference to tax rises coming in the autumn.”
He then went on to repeat the Conservative attack lines that Labour are “crashing the economy”.
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10:43
Chris Philp also criticsed the government’s migration deal with France
Mr Philp then attacked the prime minister as “weak” for being unable to get his welfare reforms through the Commons.
Discussions about potential tax rises have come to the fore after the government had to gut its welfare reforms.
Sir Keir had wanted to change Personal Independence Payments (PIP), but a large Labour rebellion forced him to axe the changes.
With the savings from these proposed changes – around £5bn – already worked into the government’s sums, they will now need to find the money somewhere else.
The general belief is that this will take the form of tax rises, rather than spending cuts, with more money needed for military spending commitments, as well as other areas of priority for the government, such as the NHS.