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A series of iPhone 16s on display inside the Apple store at Tun Razak Exchange in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, on Sept. 20, 2024.

Annice Lyn | Getty Images News | Getty Images

One of the first things Steve Jobs did when he returned to Apple in 1997 was simplify Apple’s product lineup. At the time that meant four computers: Two laptops and two desktops, each in a pro and consumer version. 

“If we had four great products, that’s all we need,” Jobs said at a product launch in 1998.

Three decades later, Apple’s product lineup is much broader. The company in 2024 launched four iPads, four MacBooks, two desktop Macs, one Vision Pro headset, two Apple Watch models and three kinds of AirPods. But when it comes to iPhones, four remains the magic number. 

That’s how many iPhones the company has released each year since 2020, and in September, it released the iPhone 16, the iPhone 16 Plus, the iPhone 16 Pro and the iPhone 16 Pro Max.

Apple introduced the four-phone lineup because historically the company’s iPhone sales have seen the strongest growth when it expanded the lineup. If Apple can show growth from the four new phones it releases each year without them cannibalizing one another, that gives the company its best chance to see iPhone sales grow meaningfully for the first time since 2022.

The company doesn’t give sales figures for its individual products, and overall iPhone sales for fiscal 2024 came in at $201.18 billion. That’s relatively flat going back to 2022. 

Unfortunately for Jobs’ company, not all of the iPhones are equally popular. 

Every year since 2020, one of the new iPhone models has lagged its siblings in sales. This year it’s the iPhone 16 Plus, which lands in the middle of the lineup. At $899 in the U.S., it’s more expensive than the baseline iPhone 16 but cheaper than the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, which have better screens.

DSCC, a research firm focused on the smartphone display industry with estimates derived from the panel supply chain, has picked up on this trend. The shares of the Pro and Pro Max phones have been rising on an annual basis while the Plus model declined from about 21% of total Apple screen orders in 2022 to 10% in 2023, according to DSCC’s data for annual panel procurement through October. While it recovered somewhat to 16% this year, it’s still the lowest volume out of the company’s new iPhones, according to DSCC.

“They’re still really struggling with this fourth model,” DSCC founder Ross Young said.

Other data shows the Plus lagging, too. The iPhone 16 Plus accounted for 4% of overall iPhone sales in the U.S. in the third quarter while both the Pro and Pro Max each accounted for 6% of sales, according to survey findings by Consumer Intelligence Research Partners. The regular 16 accounted for 4%, too, although early cycle iPhone sales are heavily weighted toward early adopters and the Pro models, according to CIRP.

The metric only includes a few weeks of the latest model sales in the third quarter, but the 2024 findings are in line with last year’s, where the 15 Plus accounted for 3% of total sales about a month after launch.

Apple’s iPhone 15, iPhone 15 Pro and iPhone 15 Pro Max took the top three spots, respectively, in Counterpoint’s data for the best-selling individual smartphone models around the world in the third quarter of 2024. The Plus model didn’t make the top 10 list.

The Mini and Plus failures

Apple’s Series 16 iPhones are seen on display at the Apple Store, Regent Street on September 20, 2024 in London, England. 

Peter Nicholls | Getty Images News | Getty Images

When the iPhone was introduced in 2007 there was one new model per year. The lineup has expanded quite a bit since then, while Apple keeps older models on store shelves as budget options.

In 2014, Apple introduced the iPhone 6 Plus, the first time iPhone came in two sizes, which led to three straight quarters of growth of over 27% in 2015. After Apple released the iPhone X in 2017, raising the price of the highest-end phone and creating a three-model lineup, the company saw three straight quarters of growth of more than 15%.

After Apple moved to a four-phone lineup in 2020, growth surged, hitting 54% in one quarter, although that was partially boosted by the pandemic. But since then, iPhone sales have been basically flat.

When the company introduced the iPhone Mini in 2020, it was the lowest-cost new iPhone at the time, at $699. 

Apple kept the same strategy in place in 2021, hoping that the vocal minority of consumers that had previously demanded smaller phones would flock to the device. It didn’t work, and Apple no longer sells a device with a 5.4-inch screen.

By 2022, Apple shifted its approach and introduced the iPhone 14 Plus, which had the same chip and features as the company’s entry level iPhone 14 but a larger screen. That mirrored Apple’s successful strategy from 2014. Apple boosted its panel procurement for the iPhone 14 Plus up to 21% of the total screens it ordered that cycle, according to DSCC.

But the Plus strategy didn’t work as well as it had before. 

Is Air next?

The new iPhone 16 Pro model is available at an Apple store in Bangkok, Thailand, on September 20, 2024. Apple now makes available to consumers its new lineup of iPhone 16 models, which are the iPhone 16, Plus, Pro, and Pro Max. 

Anusak Laowilas | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Looking ahead, Apple is keeping its four iPhones strategy in place, but it may change the approach it takes to finding a successful fourth model for its 2025 lineup.

Instead of a fourth Mini model at the low end of the lineup or a Plus in the middle, Apple may introduce an Air model at the top of the lineup. An Air offering could be distinguished by a lighter-weight device and a higher starting price, according to an August report by Bloomberg News.

Despite giving it a higher price tag, Apple may have to make a trade-off on the Air device by limiting it to one camera, due to the lighter weight and a slimmer design. Apple’s current high-end phones, the Pro and Pro Max, have three big cameras that add photographic capabilities but also add weight. DSCC’s Young said he expects the screen size of the Air to come in at 6.55 inches, between this year’s Pro and Pro Max sizes.

A new high-end phone could make sense for Apple. In recent years, the Max models have outperformed the lower-end models in sales, suggesting there is stronger demand for more powerful and feature-packed phones at the top of Apple’s lineup than there is for lower-cost models.

In October, Apple signaled that the company had enough stock of the iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus to meet demand but that the more expensive Pro and Pro Max were still in short supply.

Outside the U.S., Apple’s more expensive models have shown more growth in recent years. In the first three weeks of iPhone 16 sales in China, the 16 Pro and Pro Max models were up 44% compared with last year’s high-end models.

Model preferences also vary across regions, Counterpoint analyst Varun Mishra told CNBC.

“In China, the Pro series is performing well, as consumers there tend to favour the Pro models,” Mishra said in an email. “In India, the Pro series is strong, partly due to a lower launch price compared to last year, thanks to local manufacturing.”

Apple has previously released thinner, lighter models of its existing products in order to raise prices and push the limits of its engineering. In 2008, Apple introduced the MacBook Air, which it marketed by saying that it was thin enough to fit in an envelope. At first, it was more expensive than Apple’s other Macs, starting at $1,799, but over the years, MacBook Air has become Apple’s entry-level laptop.

In 2013, the company did the same thing with its iPad, introducing an iPad Air, with a thinner design, although it was Apple’s flagship new iPad model released that year. Apple now uses the iPad Air as the middle option in its iPad lineup.

For Apple, a shift from Plus to Air could mean more iPhone sales, especially if the new model is priced higher than the other iPhones, which could help Apple expand its margin and continue the recent trend of a higher average iPhone selling price. It could also help focus Apple’s early adopters and fans on one single high-end iPhone model.

“Next year they’re going to try something different,” Young said.

WATCH: The iPhone 16 upgrade can be a multiyear cycle, says BofA’s Wamsi Mohan

The iPhone 16 upgrade can be a multi-year cycle, says BofA’s Wamsi Mohan

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WikiLeaks whistleblower Chelsea Manning says censorship is still ‘a dominant threat’

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WikiLeaks whistleblower Chelsea Manning says censorship is still 'a dominant threat'

Chelsea Manning: Censorship still a dominant threat

Former U.S. Army intelligence analyst Chelsea Manning says censorship is still “a dominant threat,” advocating for a more decentralized internet to help better protect individuals online.

Her comments come amid ongoing tension linked to online safety rules, with some tech executives recently seeking to push back over content moderation concerns.

Speaking to CNBC’s Karen Tso at the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, Portugal, on Wednesday, Manning said that one way to ensure online privacy could be “decentralized identification,” which gives individuals the ability to control their own data.

“Censorship is a dominant threat. I think that it is a question of who’s doing the censoring, and what the purpose is — and also censorship in the 21st century is more about whether or not you’re boosted through like an algorithm, and how the fine-tuning of that seems to work,” Manning said.

“I think that social media and the monopolies of social media have sort of gotten us used to the fact that certain things that drive engagement will be attractive,” she added.

“One of the ways that we can sort of countervail that is to go back to the more decentralized and distribute the internet of the early ’90s, but make that available to more people.”

Nym Technologies Chief Security Officer Chelsea Manning at a press conference held with Nym Technologies CEO Harry Halpin in the Media Village to present NymVPN during the second day of Web Summit on November 13, 2024 in Lisbon, Portugal. 

Horacio Villalobos | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Asked how tech companies could make money in such a scenario, Manning said there would have to be “a better social contract” put in place to determine how information is shared and accessed.

“One of the things about distributed or decentralized identification is that through encryption you’re able to sort of check the box yourself, instead of having to depend on the company to provide you with a check box or an accept here, you’re making that decision from a technical perspective,” Manning said.

‘No longer secrecy versus transparency’

Manning, who works as a security consultant at Nym Technologies, a company that specializes in online privacy and security, was convicted of espionage and other charges at a court-martial in 2013 for leaking a trove of secret military files to online media publisher WikiLeaks.

She was sentenced to 35 years in prison, but was later released in 2017, when former U.S. President Barack Obama commuted her sentence.

Asked to what extent the environment has changed for whistleblowers today, Manning said, “We’re at an interesting time because information is everywhere. We have more information than ever.”

She added, “Countries and governments no longer seem to invest the same amount of time and effort in hiding information and keeping secrets. What countries seem to be doing now is they seem to be spending more time and energy spreading misinformation and disinformation.”

Manning said the challenge for whistleblowers now is to sort through the information to understand what is verifiable and authentic.

“It’s no longer secrecy versus transparency,” she added.

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SoftBank-backed fintech Zopa aims to double profit this year as it eyes 2025 current account launch

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SoftBank-backed fintech Zopa aims to double profit this year as it eyes 2025 current account launch

Jaidev Janardana, CEO of U.K. digital bank Zopa.

Zopa

LISBON, Portugal — British online lender Zopa is on track to double profits and increase annual revenue by more than a third this year amid bumper demand for its banking services, the company’s CEO told CNBC.

Zopa posted revenues of £222 million ($281.7 million) in 2023 and is expecting to cross the £300 million revenue milestone this year — that would mark a 35% annual jump.

The 2024 estimates are based on unaudited internal figures.

The firm also says it is on track to increase pre-tax profits twofold in 2024, after hitting £15.8 million last year.

Zopa, a regulated bank that is backed by Japanese giant SoftBank, has plans to venture into the world of current accounts next year as it looks to focus more on new products.

The company currently offers credit cards, personal loans and savings accounts that it offers through a mobile app — similar to other digital banks such as Monzo and Revolut which don’t operate physical branches.

“The business is doing really well. In 2024, we’ve hit or exceeded the plans across all metrics,” CEO Jaidev Janardana told CNBC in an interview Wednesday.

He said the strong performance is coming off the back of gradually improving sentiment in the U.K. economy, where Zopa operates exclusively.

Commenting on Britain’s macroeconomic conditions, Janardana said, “While it has been a rough few years, in terms of consumers, they have continued to feel the pain slightly less this year than last year.”

The market is “still tight,” he noted, adding that fintech offerings such as Zopa’s — which typically provide higher savings rates than high-street banks — become “more important” during such times.

“The proposition has become more relevant, and while it’s tight for customers, we have had to be much more constrained in terms of who we can lend to,” he said, adding that Zopa has still been able to grow despite that.

A big priority for the business going forward is product, Janardana said. The firm is developing a current account product which would allow users to spend and manage their money more easily, in a similar fashion to mainstream banking providers like HSBC and Barclays, as well as fintech upstarts such as Monzo.

What leaders are saying about AI at one of Europe's biggest tech shows

“We believe that there is more that the consumer can have in the current account space,” Janardana said. “We expect that we will launch our current account with the general public sometime next year.”

Janardana said consumers can expect a “slick” experience from Zopa’s current account offering, including the ability to view and manage multiple account bank accounts from one interface and access to competitive savings rates.

IPO ‘not top of mind’

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It’s ‘liquidity, stupid’: VCs say tech investing is tough amid IPO lull and ‘nuts’ AI hype

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It's 'liquidity, stupid': VCs say tech investing is tough amid IPO lull and 'nuts' AI hype

Edith Yeung, general partner at Race Capital, and Larry Aschebrook, founder and managing partner of G Squared, speak during a CNBC-moderated panel at Web Summit 2024 in Lisbon, Portugal.

Rita Franca | Nurphoto | Getty Images

LISBON, Portugal — It’s a tough time for the venture capital industry right now as a dearth of blockbuster initial public offerings and M&A activity has sucked liquidity from the market, while buzzy artificial intelligence startups dominate attention.

At the Web Summit tech conference in Lisbon, two venture investors — whose portfolios include the likes of multibillion-dollar AI startups Databricks Anthropic and Groq — said things have become much more difficult as they’re unable to cash out of some of their long-term bets.

“In the U.S., when you talk about the presidential election, it’s the economy stupid. And in the VC world, it’s really all about liquidity stupid,” Edith Yeung, general partner at Race Capital, an early-stage VC firm based in Silicon Valley, said in a CNBC-moderated panel earlier this week.

Liquidity is the holy grail for VCs, startup founders and early employees as it gives them a chance to realize gains — or, if things turn south, losses — on their investments.

When a VC makes an equity investment and the value of their stake increases, it’s only a gain on paper. But when a startup IPOs or sells to another company, their equity stake gets converted into hard cash — enabling them to make new investments.

Yeung said the lack of IPOs over the last couple of years had created a “really tough” environment for venture capital.

At the same, however, there’s been a rush from investors to get into buzzy AI firms.

“What’s really crazy is in the last few years, OpenAI’s domination has really been determined by Big Techs, the Microsofts of the world,” said Yeung, referring to ChatGPT-creator OpenAI’s seismic $157 billion valuation. OpenAI is backed by Microsoft, which has made a multibillion-dollar investment in the firm.

‘The IPO market is not happening’

Larry Aschebrook, founder and managing partner at late-stage VC firm G Squared, agreed that the hunt for liquidity is getting harder — even though the likes of OpenAI are seeing blockbuster funding rounds, which he called “a bit nuts.”

“You have funds and founders and employees searching for liquidity because the IPO market is not happening. And then you have funding rounds taking place of generational types of businesses,” Aschebrook said on the panel.

As important as these deals are, Aschebrook suggested they aren’t helping investors because even more money is getting tied up in illiquid, privately owned shares. G Squared itself an early backer of Anthropic, a foundational AI model startup competing with Microsoft-backed OpenAI.

Using a cooking analogy, Aschebrook suggested that venture capitalists are being starved of lucrative share sales which would lead to them realizing returns. “If you want to cook some dinner, you better sell some stock, ” he added.

Looking for opportunities beyond OpenAI

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