The UK’s cost of living crisis hangover is facing fresh pressure from the Israel-Iran conflict and growing tensions across the Middle East.

Whenever the region, particularly a major oil-producing country, is embroiled in some kind of fracas, the potential consequences are first seen in global oil prices.

The Middle East accounts for a third of world output.

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Iran’s share of the total is only about 3%, but it is the second-largest supplier of natural gas.

Add to that its control of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route, and you can understand why any military action involving Iran has huge implications for the global economy at a time when a US-inspired global trade war is already playing out.

What’s happened to oil prices?

Global oil prices jumped by up to 13% on Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict ramped up.

It was the biggest one-day leap seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which gave birth to the energy-driven cost-of-living crisis.

From lows of $64 (£47) a barrel for Brent crude, the international benchmark, earlier this month, the cost is currently 15% higher.

Iran ships all its oil to China because of Western sanctions, so the world’s second-largest economy would have the most to lose in the event of disruption.

Should that happen, China would need to replace that oil by buying elsewhere on the international market, threatening higher prices.

How are natural gas prices holding up?

UK day-ahead prices are 15% up over the past week alone.

Europe is more dependent on Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) these days because of sanctions against Russia.

The UK is particularly exposed due to the fact that we have low storage capacity and rely so much on gas-fired power to keep the lights on and for heating.

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The day-ahead price, measured in pence per therm (I won’t go into that), is at 93p on Monday.

It sounds rather meaningless until you compare it with the price seen less than a week ago – 81p.

The higher sum was last seen over the winter – when demand is at its strongest.

What are the risks to these prices?

Market experts say Brent crude would easily exceed $100 (£74) a barrel in the event of any Iranian threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz – the 30-mile wide shipping lane controlled by both Iran and Oman.

While Iran has a history of disrupting trade, analysts believe it will not want to risk its oil and gas income through any blockade.

What do these price increases mean for the UK?

There are implications for the whole economy at a time when the chancellor can least afford it, as she bets big on public sector-led growth for the economy.

We can expect higher oil, gas and fuel costs to be passed on down supply chains – from the refinery and factory – to the end user, consumers. It could affect anything from foodstuffs to even fake tan.

Increases at the pumps are usually the first to appear – probably within the next 10 days. Prices are always quick to rise and slow to reflect easing wholesale costs.

Energy bills will also take in the gas spike, particularly if the wholesale price rises are sustained.

The energy price cap from September – and new fixed-term price deals – will first reflect these increases.

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How does this all play out in the coming months?

So much depends on events ahead.

But energy price rises are an inflation risk and a potential threat to future interest rate cuts.

While LSEG data shows financial markets continuing to expect a further two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, the rate-setting committee will be reluctant to cut if the pace of price growth is led higher than had been expected.

At a time when employers are grappling with higher taxes and minimum pay thresholds, and consumers a surge in bills following the ‘awful April’ hikes to council tax, water and other essentials, a fresh energy-linked inflation spike is the last thing anyone needs.

The cost of rural crime in Wales is at its highest in more than a decade, a new report has revealed.

Last year, rural crime cost an estimated £2.8m in Wales, according to insurance provider NFU Mutual.

That’s an 18% increase on the previous year, with Wales the only UK nation to have seen a rise.

For farmers like Caryl Davies, that makes their work harder.

The 21-year-old farms on a beef and sheep farm in Pembrokeshire.

She told Sky News that having the quad bike stolen from her family farm last August had made them feel “really unsafe at home”.

The fact it happened in such a rural area was a “really big shock” for Ms Davies and her family.

“We’d rely on the bike day in day out, to look after our cows and sheep, and it’s had a really negative impact on us,” she said.

The cost of replacing a bike exactly like theirs would be “close to £10,000”.

“They’re a really expensive piece of kit, but you can’t be without them, especially in these rural areas where we’ve got the mountain and maybe places that aren’t very accessible,” she added.

“The bike is totally crucial for our day-to-day running of the farm.”

The incident was caught on camera in the calving shed, but the Davies family have since invested in an enhanced CCTV system. That comes at an additional cost.

“For some farmers, this is spare money that we haven’t really got,” Ms Davies added.

“Farming is hard enough as it is, without people stealing your things and having to spend this extra money on making your home farm safe.”

The total cost of rural crime across the UK has fallen since 2023 – down from £52.8m to £44.1m.

Quad bike and All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) remained the top target for thieves during the past year, NFU Mutual’s figures show.

James Bourne farms in Pontypool, Torfaen, and claims to have had over 200 sheep stolen from common land adjoining his farm over a four-year period.

The 32-year-old told Sky News that losing sheep from his herd was a “big hit” on his business as well as the young family he is trying to support.

“The way agriculture is at the moment anyway, we’re struggling to make ends meet, and any profit that is in it is obviously being taken from me,” he said.

“So I really need to try and find out and get to the bottom of where they’re going because obviously it’s an ongoing issue.”

Andrew Chalk, from NFU Mutual, told Sky News that while there had been a “significant drop” across the UK, there were “worrying signs”.

“In Wales, especially, rural crime’s gone up which just shows that organised criminals are looking for ways to target the countryside again and again,” he said.

“What we’ve found increasingly is that organised criminals are targeting certain areas of the countryside, so they’re hitting multiple farms in one night.

“They’re raiding them, they’re moving away to another area and then hitting multiple farms there. So it is hugely concerning.”

Mr Chalk said NFU Mutual had also heard reports of criminals using drones and other equipment to “look at the lay of the land”.

“What it does show is that organised criminals are always going to find new ways to target rural crime and that’s why we need to be on top of it and to work together to actually disrupt them,” he added.

Police forces in Wales say they are aware of the “significant impact” that rural crimes have on those affected.

A Dyfed-Powys Police spokesperson said the force had acquired new technology to help combat rural crime, including “advanced DNA asset-marking kits” and hopes to “empower farmers with effective tools and advice”.

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The spokesperson acknowledged the difficulty of patrolling the entire police force area, “given the huge area” it has to cover, and thanked rural communities for their “continuing vigilance and for reporting any suspicious activity”.

Temporary Chief Superintendent Jason White, from Gwent Police, said the force would be “increasing resources” within the rural crime team throughout this financial year and urged anyone in a rural area who believes they have been a victim of crime to get in touch.

Harrods is preparing to take legal action against the estate of its former owner, Mohamed al-Fayed, as the multimillion-pound legal bill for compensating his sexual abuse victims continues to escalate.

Sky News has learnt that the Knightsbridge department store, which has been owned by a Qatari sovereign wealth fund since 2010, plans to file a so-called passing-over application in the High Court as early as next week.

The intention of the application is to secure the removal of Mr al-Fayed‘s estate’s current executors, and replace them with professional executors to administer it instead.

Professional executors would be expected to investigate the assets and liabilities of the estate, while Harrods insiders claimed that the current executors – thought to be close family members of the deceased billionaire – had “ignored” correspondence from its lawyers.

Sources close to Harrods said the passing-over application paved the way for it to potentially seek to recover substantial sums from the estate of the Egyptian tycoon as it contends with a compensation bill likely to run to tens of millions of pounds.

In a statement issued to Sky News on Saturday, a Harrods spokesperson said: “We are considering legal options that would ensure that no doors are closed on any future action and that a route to compensation and accountability from the Fayed estate remains open to all.”

Mr al-Fayed is believed to have raped or sexually abused hundreds of women during his 25-year tenure as the owner of Harrods.

He died in 2023, since when a torrent of details of his abuse have been made public by many of his victims.

Earlier this year, Sky News revealed details of the compensation scheme designed by Harrods to award six-figure sums to women he abused.

In a form outlining the details of the Harrods redress scheme overseen by MPL Legal, which is advising the department store, it referred to the potential “for Harrods to recover compensation paid out under this Scheme from Mohamed Fayed’s estate”.

“You are not obliged to assist with any such claim for recovery,” the form told potential claimants.

“However, if you would be willing to assist Harrods including potentially by giving evidence against Fayed’s estate, please indicate below.”

This weekend, there appeared to be confusion about the legal representation of Mr al-Fayed’s estate.

In March, the BBC reported that Fladgate, a UK-based law firm, was representing it in an article which said that women who worked for him as nannies and private air stewards were preparing to file legal claims against the estate.

This weekend, however, a spokesman for Fladgate declined to comment on whether it was acting for Mr al-Fayed’s estate, citing confidentiality restrictions.

A source close to the law firm, meanwhile, insisted that it was not acting for the estate.

KP Law, another law firm acting for some al-Fayed abuse survivors, has criticised the Harrods-orchestrated process, but has itself faced questions over proposals to take up to 25% of compensation awards in exchange for handling their cases.

Harrods insiders said there was a growing risk that Mr al-Fayed’s estate would not be responsibly administered given that the second anniversary of his death was now approaching.

They added that as well as Harrods itself seeking contribution for compensation paid out for Mr al-Fayed’s abuse, its legal action would also potentially open way for survivors to claim directly against the estate.

Victims with no direct connection to Harrods are not eligible for any compensation through the store’s own redress scheme.

Even if Harrods’ passing-over application was approved by the High Court, any financial recovery for the department store would be subject to a number of additional legal steps, sources said.

“The passing-over action would achieve the goals of acknowledgement and accountability from the estate for survivors who don’t have the resource to undertake a passing-over application themselves,” an insider said this weekend.