SEATTLE — Dustin Wolf has faced a number of questions over the last seven years:
Is he really that good? Can a smaller goalie be trusted when every team wants a bigger option in net? Can he replicate his WHL success in the AHL? Can his AHL success be parlayed into giving the Calgary Flames a franchise goalie to win games and get into the playoffs?
Wolf now faces another question: Could he or someone else in this season’s rookie class become the first goalie in more than a decade to win the Calder Trophy?
“I had no idea,” Wolf said of the 15-year gap since the last Calder-winning goalie. “But you know what? My job is to try to stop as many pucks as I can and try to help the team win games. If the extra stuff comes along with that, then, it’s just an extra bonus.”
Steve Mason was the last goalie to win the Calder, in the 2008-09 season. Mason went 33-20-7 with a 2.27 goals-against average and a .916 save percentage, playing a crucial role in the Columbus Blue Jackets making the playoffs. Since then, the Calder has been a forward-centric award, with 11 of the last 15 winners being a center or a winger.
The Calder has been historically dominated by forwards. There are 62 forwards who have won the award, which was introduced during the 1932-33 season. By comparison, just 16 goalies have won. Yet the current 15-year gap since Mason won it is the longest gap. The previous long goalie-free streak was 12 years, from 1972 to 1984.
In the time since Mason won the Calder, the conversation surrounding goaltending continues to evolve.
There are more data points and metrics beyond traditional statistics that can be used to evaluate their performances. More front offices continue to use tandems rather than the conventional approach of one goalie playing more than 60 games. After having some drafts in the early 2000s that saw as many as four go in the first round, there are fewer goalies who are first-round picks. Even the economics around goalies is in flux, with teams investing anywhere between $1.8 million in cap space to $14.5 million.
Now there’s another talking point around the sport when it comes to goalies: Why hasn’t one won the Calder in 15 years?
“It’s really hard. You don’t see too many rookie goalies come in and just light it up right away,” 2022 Calder Trophy winner and Colorado Avalanche defenseman Cale Makar said. “You have to be set up in the right position. A lot of times rookie goalies don’t play on teams with the best defense and that doesn’t support their stats. I think there’s a lot of aspects that go into it.”
ESPN SPOKE TO an agent with clients who have won the Calder and/or were finalists, along with an experienced Calder voter, an NHL goalie coach and two Calder winners in former NHL goalie Andrew Raycroft and Makar.
They each provided various reasons for the current gap. Although, there was one common theme among the group: rookie goalies are at a major disadvantage when it comes to winning the public attention battle.
“I think a lot of it too is what you are going up against,” one NHL goaltending coach said. “That’s only going to make it harder for a goalie. Everybody right now is anticipating that players like Macklin Celebrini, Matvei Michkov, Will Smith — those high-end guys have been hyped going into the NHL and for good reason because they are great hockey players. You talk about those guys and you bring Dustin Wolf into the conversation. How much better does [Wolf] have to be?”
Following hockey prospects isn’t like following football recruiting. Collegiate and junior hockey broadcasts aren’t as easily accessible, and it’s even more difficult to watch prospects playing in Europe. In contrast, Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has received attention since getting his first scholarship offer in 2017 as a 16-year-old.
Bedard was long touted as the NHL’s next great generational talent. The 2023 draft was known as “The Bedard Draft” after he scored 100 points in his first full WHL season and followed up with 71 goals and 143 points entering his draft season. He also helped Canada to consecutive gold medal finishes at the IIHF World Junior Championships. He was then drafted by an Original Six team, and debuted just months after being drafted No. 1 in 2023.
Faber, a second-round pick in 2020, played for the United States National Team Development Program and at collegiate blue blood University of Minnesota, and was a two-time Big 10 Defensive Player of the Year before guiding the Gophers to the national title game. He also won gold for the United States at the WJC, and was a U.S. Olympian before playing for his hometown team in a state that’s considered to be synonymous with hockey.
Hughes, the No. 4 pick in 2021, was a standout in a family of standouts as his older brothers, Jack and Quinn, were also first-round picks. The youngest Hughes brother played for the USNTDP and a collegiate blueblood in the University of Michigan. Hughes was a two-time All-American who averaged more than a point per game as a sophomore. He helped the Wolverines reach consecutive Frozen Fours, and was in the NHL after two NCAA seasons.
As rookies, they maintained high profiles: Bedard was a top-line center who led the Blackhawks in several categories and was tied for first in goals. Faber played all 82 games in a top-pairing role, and was given copious power-play and short-handed minutes. Hughes was a top-four option who led the Devils in ice time, and was first among the team’s defensemen across several offensive categories.
Goaltenders are often presented with a different path when it comes to development, exposure and how long it takes to reach the NHL.
Between 2000 and 2009, 22 goalies were selected in the first round, including Rick DiPietro and Marc-Andre Fleury going No. 1. Since 2010, there have been only nine who went in the first round, with the highest going 11th. None of the goalies from the 2023 and 2024 draft classes have reached the NHL. There have been only 12 goaltenders who have played at least one NHL game since being selected in the 2020, 2021 and 2022 drafts.
One goalie who had a slightly quicker path to the NHL, with a higher profile, was Devon Levi. A seventh-round pick in 2020, Levi’s stock soared after his performances led Canada to finish second in 2021 at the WJC. He led Northeastern to a Hockey East regular-season title. Levi signed with the Buffalo Sabres after two college seasons, and went 5-2 in the final stretch of the 2022-23 season.
He was set up as a Calder contender in the same season as Bedard, Faber and Hughes — only to struggle throughout a 2023-24 campaign that led to him getting demoted to the AHL.
“I think there is something to be said that in this world of accelerated everything that kids who don’t play in the AHL are given more consideration for the Calder,” the agent said. “But the guys who have been up and down in the minors might have sort of gone through some of the rookie challenges in people’s minds.”
Raycroft, who won the Calder back in 2003-04, said it’s not just the visibility that No. 1 picks such as Bedard and Celebrini have received over the years that’s different. Those No. 1 picks are being used differently compared to when he played.
In Raycroft’s era, No. 1 picks such as Joe Thornton weren’t immediately trusted with top-line minutes or first-team power-play opportunities. With front offices now placing an emphasis on providing chances to their younger players, it’s allowing those elite prospects the chance to make an immediate impact.
Bedard proved he was a top-line center. During Beniers’ first full season with the Kraken, he was also a top-six center that was second in goals, fourth in assists and fourth in points for a playoff team. Detroit Red Wings defenseman Moritz Seider, who won the Calder in 2022, emerged as a top-four option that led the team in ice time, assists and power-play points, and was one of three Red Wings to play all 82 games.
With young goalies, it’s a bit more complicated.
“That’s the biggest difference first and foremost. From the goaltending side of it, they bring up goalies a lot differently now,” Raycroft said. “Even Wolf played in the NHL last season — he was able to get some games. Someone like [Carolina Hurricanes goalie Pyotr] Kochetkov had his rookie of the year opportunity eaten up because he played over parts of two or three seasons.”
THE KOCHETKOV SITUATION might be one of the strongest examples of what makes the current Calder landscape challenging for goalies.
Kochetkov played twice during the 2021-22 season, with injuries opening the door for him to get more playing time in 2022-23 before he was sent back to the AHL. In 2023-24, Kochetkov was firmly entrenched as part of the Hurricanes’ plans. He started 40 games for a playoff team, and won 23 of them while having a 2.33 GAA along with a .911 save percentage.
Kochetkov was named to the All-Rookie Team, while finishing fourth in Calder voting.
“He had a winning record. His save percentage was not in the top three, but he was in the top three in GAA,” the goalie coach said. “But when you look at the big picture? He had 20-plus wins and I don’t know which one [voters] look at the most.”
The Calder is voted upon by the Professional Hockey Writers Association. The longtime voter said they use several items to evaluate skaters such as point production, ice time, role, special teams usage and shots because, “it indicates stick on puck and you are controlling the game.”
The voter said they’d have no problem voting for a goalie — with some caveats.
“If a goaltender took a mediocre team to the playoffs but played 44 games, I’d have a hard time casting my vote,” the voter explained. “But if he played 55 or 58 games, had a low GAA, a high save percentage and was in the top 5 in the league in those categories? They did something that was truly special — I’d have no problem casting a vote for them.”
Last season, there were only 10 goalies overall who played more than 55 games. Two of them were in the top five in GAA among those with more than 25 games, and only one goalie was in the top five in save percentage among those with more than 25 games.
The only goalie in the entire NHL who checked all of those boxes was Winnipeg Jets star Connor Hellebuyck, who won his second Vezina Trophy.
Faber, by comparison, was the only defenseman or forward of last season’s rookie class to finish in the top 10 of a major traditional statistical category. He was sixth in average ice time.
By that voter’s logic, does it appear that there’s a double standard for rookie goalies? Especially at a time in which more teams are moving toward tandems — and only four rookie goalies since 2010 have played in more than 55 games throughout a single season?
“I do feel like the bar has to be higher for a goalie,” the voter said. “I also think that’s going to make it harder for voters now. Goalies don’t play as many games anymore. With the league going to the 1A or 1B strategy, you rarely see a goaltender get over 55 games.”
BACK TO THE original question: Could any of this year’s rookie goaltenders end the Calder drought?
Dustin Wolf was a seventh-round pick who shattered expectations at every level before reaching the NHL, which makes him one of the higher-profile rookies of this particular class — and rookie goalies in recent history.
That allowed him to enter his first full rookie season under a spotlight. Playing a role in the Flames winning four straight games to start the 2024-25 season also helped. Although the Flames have since cooled, they remain a team that could emerge as a long-term challenger in the Western Conference wild-card race.
“He plays an eye-appealing style with his athleticism, and I think that could help him as opposed to being just a big blocker,” the agent said. “He’s going to have some highlight-reel saves, and I think that could help him too.”
While Wolf entered this season as the most well-known rookie goaltender, he’s part of a rookie class that could have more than one netminder in position to present a strong Calder case at season’s end.
Injuries and inconsistencies have led to the Avalanche trudging to a 8-8-0 start, with five of their wins coming when Justus Annunen has been in net. Annunen was a third-round pick in 2019, and has provided a sense of consistency that has been vital with the Avs weathering the first month without a handful of their top-nine forwards. The 2022 Stanley Cup champions are expected to reach the playoffs for what would be an eighth straight season, and Annunen may well be a critical part of that outcome.
Through the first month, Joel Blomqvist appears to have provided the Pittsburgh Penguins with a strong option in net as they also seek stability. The Penguins entered November allowing the most goals per game in the NHL. Through seven starts, the second-round pick from 2020 is averaging 29.5 saves per game, posting a .904 save percentage for a team that’s also in the top five in the most scoring chances allowed per 60 minutes, most shots allowed per 60 and most high-danger scoring chances allowed per 60, according to Natural Stat Trick. The Pens are one point outside of wild-card position in the East.
So could Annunen, Blomqvist or Wolf emerge to become one of the finalists in a Calder race that includes Celebrini, Michkov, Smith, Cutter Gauthier, Lane Hutson and Logan Stankoven?
Or does the streak extend to a not-so-sweet 16 years since a goalie won the Calder?
“One of these goaltenders who becomes a starter at Christmas and carries the team down the stretch and wins a division would help,” Raycroft said. “Not just being a wild-card team. That is prerequisite No. 1 to be in the mix for being the Rookie of the Year as a goaltender. Numbers will fall into place. I don’t think you can give it to a guy who is not on a playoff team.”
Some of the most dynamic home run hitters in baseball will be taking aim at the Truist Park stands on Monday (8 p.m. ET on ESPN) in one of the most anticipated events of the summer.
While the prospect of a back-to-back champion is out of the picture — 2024 winner Teoscar Hernandez is not a part of this year’s field — a number of exciting stars will be taking the field, including Atlanta’s own Matt Olson, who replacedRonald Acuna Jr. just three days before the event. Will Olson make a run in front of his home crowd? Will Cal Raleigh show off the power that led to 38 home runs in the first half? Or will one of the younger participants take the title?
We have your one-stop shop for everything Derby related, from predictions to live updates once we get underway to analysis and takeaways at the night’s end.
Who is going to win the Derby and who will be the runner-up?
Jeff Passan: Raleigh. His swing is perfect for the Derby: He leads MLB this season in both pull percentage and fly ball percentage, so it’s not as if he needs to recalibrate it to succeed. He has also become a prolific hitter from the right side this season — 16 home runs in 102 at-bats — and his ability to switch between right- and left-handed pitching offers a potential advantage. No switch-hitter (or catcher for that matter) has won a Home Run Derby. The Big Dumper is primed to be the first, beating Buxton in the finals.
Alden Gonzalez: Cruz. He might be wildly inconsistent at this point in his career, but he is perfect for the Derby — young enough to possess the stamina required for a taxing event that could become exhausting in the Atlanta heat; left-handed, in a ballpark where the ball carries out better to right field; and, most importantly, capable of hitting balls at incomprehensible velocities. Raleigh will put on a good show from both sides of the plate but will come in second.
Buster Olney: Olson. He is effectively pinch-hitting for Acuna, and because he received word in the past 72 hours of his participation, he hasn’t had the practice rounds that the other competitors have been going through. But he’s the only person in this group who has done the Derby before, which means he has experienced the accelerated pace, adrenaline and push of the crowd.
His pitcher, Eddie Perez, knows something about performing in a full stadium in Atlanta. And, as Olson acknowledged in a conversation Sunday, the park generally favors left-handed hitters because of the larger distances that right-handed hitters must cover in left field.
Jesse Rogers: Olson. Home-field advantage will mean something this year as hitting in 90-plus degree heat and humidity will be an extra challenge in Atlanta. Olson understands that and can pace himself accordingly. Plus, he was a late addition. He has got nothing to lose. He’ll outlast the young bucks in the field. And I’m not putting Raleigh any lower than second — his first half screams that he’ll be in the finals against Olson.
Jorge Castillo: Wood. His mammoth power isn’t disputed — he can jack baseballs to all fields. But the slight defect in his power package is that he doesn’t hit the ball in the air nearly as often as a typical slugger. Wood ranks 126th out of 155 qualified hitters across the majors in fly ball percentage. And he still has swatted 24 home runs this season. So, in an event where he’s going to do everything he can to lift baseballs, hitting fly balls won’t be an issue, and Wood is going to show off that gigantic power en route to a victory over Cruz in the finals.
Who will hit the longest home run of the night — and how far?
Passan: Cruz hits the ball harder than anyone in baseball history. He’s the choice here, at 493 feet.
Gonzalez: If you exclude the Coors Field version, there have been just six Statcast-era Derby home runs that have traveled 497-plus feet. They were compiled by two men: Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. James Wood — all 6-foot-7, 234 pounds of him — will become the third.
Olney: James Wood has the easy Stanton- and Judge-type power, and he will clear the Chophouse with the longest homer. Let’s say 497 feet.
Rogers: Hopefully he doesn’t injure himself doing it, but Buxton will break out his massive strength and crush a ball at least 505 feet. I don’t see him advancing far in the event, but for one swing, he’ll own the night.
Castillo: Cruz hits baseballs hard and far. He’ll crush a few bombs, and one will reach an even 500 feet.
Who is the one slugger fans will know much better after the Derby?
Passan: Buxton capped his first half with a cycle on Saturday, and he’ll carry that into the Derby, where he will remind the world why he was baseball’s No. 1 prospect in 2015. Buxton’s talent has never been in question, just his health. And with his body feeling right, he has the opportunity to put on a show fans won’t soon forget.
Olney: Caminero isn’t a big name and wasn’t a high-end prospect like Wood was earlier in his career. Just 3½ years ago, Caminero was dealt to the Rays by the Cleveland Guardians in a relatively minor November trade for pitcher Tobias Myers. But since then, he has refined his ability to cover inside pitches and is blossoming this year into a player with ridiculous power. He won’t win the Derby, but he’ll open some eyes.
What’s the one moment we’ll all be talking about long after this Derby ends?
Gonzalez: The incredible distances and velocities that will be reached, particularly by Wood, Cruz, Caminero, Raleigh and Buxton. The hot, humid weather at Truist Park will only aid the mind-blowing power that will be on display Monday night.
Rogers: The exhaustion on the hitter’s faces, swinging for home run after home run in the heat and humidity of Hot-lanta!
Castillo: Cruz’s 500-foot blast and a bunch of other lasers he hits in the first two rounds before running out of gas in the finals.
Tampa Bay Rays owner Stu Sternberg has agreed in principle to a $1.7 billion deal to sell the franchise to a group led by a Florida-based developer Patrick Zalupski, according to a report from The Athletic.
The deal is reportedly expected to be closed as early as September and will keep the franchise in the area, with Zalupski, a homebuilder in Jacksonville, having a strong preference to land in Tampa rather than St. Petersburg.
Sternberg bought the Rays in 2004 for $200 million.
According to Zalupski’s online bio, he is the founder, president and CEO of Dream Finders Homes. The company was founded in December 2008 and closed on 27 homes in Jacksonville the following year. Now, with an expanded footprint to many parts of the United States, Dream Finders has closed on more than 31,100 homes since its founding.
He also is a member of the board of trustees at the University of Florida.
The new ownership group also reportedly includes Bill Cosgrove, the CEO of Union Home Mortgage, and Ken Babby, owner of the Akron RubberDucks and Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp, both minor-league teams.
A year ago, Sternberg had a deal in place to build a new stadium in the Historic Gas Plant District, a reimagined recreational, retail and residential district in St. Petersburg to replace Tropicana Field.
However, after Hurricane Milton shredded the roof of the stadium last October, forcing the Rays into temporary quarters, Sternberg changed his tune, saying the team would have to bear excess costs that were not in the budget.
“After careful deliberation, we have concluded we cannot move forward with the new ballpark and development project at this moment,” Sternberg said in a statement in March. “A series of events beginning in October that no one could have anticipated led to this difficult decision.”
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and some other owners began in March to privately push Sternberg to sell the franchise, The Athletic reported.
It is unclear what Zalupski’s group, if it ultimately goes through with the purchase and is approved by MLB owners, will do for a permanent stadium.
The Rays are playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, located at the site of the New York Yankees‘ spring training facility and home of their Single-A Tampa Tarpons.
ATLANTA — Shohei Ohtani will bat leadoff as the designated hitter for the National League in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game at Truist Park, and the Los Angeles Dodgers star will be followed in the batting order by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. of the host Atlanta Braves.
Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes will start his second straight All-Star Game, Major League Baseball announced last week. Detroit Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal will make his first All-Star start for the American League.
“I think when you’re talking about the game, where it’s at, these two guys … are guys that you can root for, are super talented, are going to be faces of this game for years to come,” Roberts said.
Ohtani led off for the AL in the 2021 All-Star Game, when the two-way sensation also was the AL’s starting pitcher. He hit leadoff in 2022, then was the No. 2 hitter for the AL in 2023 and for the NL last year after leaving the Los Angeles Angels for the Dodgers.
Skenes and Skubal are Nos. 1-2 in average four-seam fastball velocity among those with 1,500 or more pitches this season, Skenes at 98.2 mph and Skubal at 97.6 mph, according to MLB Statcast.
A 23-year-old right-hander, Skenes is 4-8 despite a major league-best 2.01 ERA for the Pirates, who are last in the NL Central. The 2024 NL Rookie of the Year has 131 strikeouts and 30 walks in 131 innings.
Skubal, a 28-year-old left-hander, is the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. He is 10-3 with a 2.23 ERA, striking out 153 and walking 16 in 121 innings.