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Climate change, the crisis in the Middle East, the continuing war in Ukraine, combating global poverty.

All of these are critical issues for Britain and beyond; all of them up for discussions at the G20 summit in Rio de Janeiro this week, and all of them very much in limbo as the world awaits the arrival of president-elect Donald Trump to the White House.

Because while US President Joe Biden used Nato, the G7 and the G20, as forums to try to find consensus on some of the most pressing issues facing the West, his successor is likely to take a rather different approach. And that begs the question going into Rio 2024 about what can really be achieved in Mr Biden’s final act before the new show rolls into town.

On the flight over to Rio de Janeiro, our prime minister acted as a leader all too aware of it as he implored fellow leaders to “shore up support for Ukraine” even as the consensus around standing united against Vladimir Putin appears to be fracturing and the Russian president looks emboldened.

“We need to double down on shoring up our support for Ukraine and that’s top of my agenda for the G20,” he told us in the huddle on the plane. “There’s got to be full support for as long as it takes.”

But the election of Mr Trump to the White House is already shifting that narrative, with the incoming president clear he’s going to end the war. His new secretary of state previously voted against pouring more military aid into the embattled country.

Mr Trump has yet to say how he intends to end this war, but allies are already blinking. In recent days, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has spoken with Mr Putin for the first time in two years to the dismay of the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who described the call as “opening Pandora’s Box”.

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Ukraine anger over Putin-Scholz call

Sir Keir for his part says he has “no plans’ to speak to Putin as the 1,000th day of this conflict comes into view. But as unity amongst allies in isolating Mr Putin appears to be fracturing, the Russian leader is emboldened: on Saturday night Moscow launched one of the largest air attacks on Ukraine yet.

All of this is a reminder of the massive implications, be it on trade or global conflicts, that a Trump White House will have, and the world will be watching to see how much ‘Trump proofing’ allies look to embark upon in the coming days in Rio, be that trying to strike up economic ties with countries such as China or offering more practical help for Ukraine.

Both Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron want to use this summit to persuade Mr Biden to allow Mr Zelenskyy to fire Storm Shadow missiles deep into Russian territory, having failed to win this argument with the president during their meeting at the White House in mid-September. Starmer has previously said it should be up to Ukraine how it uses weapons supplied by allies, as long as it remains within international law and for the purposes of defence.

“I am going to make shoring up support for Ukraine top of my agenda as we go into the G20,” said Sir Keir when asked about pressing for the use of such weaponry.

“I think it’s important we double down and give Ukraine the support that it needs for as long as it needs it. Obviously, I’m not going to get into discussing capabilities. You wouldn’t expect me to do that.”

Ukraine war latest: Russia sending ‘clear message to Washington’

But even as allies try to persuade the outgoing president on one issue where consensus is breaking down, the prospect of the newcomer is creating other waves on climate change and taxation too. Argentine President Javier Milei, a close ally of Trump, is threatening to block a joint communique set to be endorsed by G20 leaders over opposition to the taxation of the super-rich, while consensus on climate finance is also struggling to find common ground, according to the Financial Times.

Russia's President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump are seen during the G20 summit in Buenos Aires, Argentina November 30, 2018. REUTERS/Marcos Brindicci
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Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are seen during the G20 summit in 2018. Pic: Reuters

Where the prime minister has found common ground with Mr Trump is on their respective domestic priorities: economic growth and border control.

So you will be hearing a lot from the prime minister over the next couple of days about tie-ups and talks with big economic partners – be that China, Brazil or Indonesia – as Starmer pursues his growth agenda, and tackling small boats, with the government drawing up plans for a series of “Italian-style” deals with several countries in an attempt to stop 1000s of illegal migrants from making the journey to the UK.

Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has struck financial deals with Tunisia and Libya to get them to do more to stop small-boat crossings, with some success and now the UK is in talks with Kurdistan, semi-autonomous region in Iraq, Turkey and Vietnam over “cooperation and security deals” which No 10 hope to sign next year.

The prime minister refused on Sunday to comment on specific deals as he stressed that tackling the small boats crisis would come from a combination of going after the smuggling gangs, trying to “stop people leaving in the first place” and returning illegal migrants where possible.

“I don’t think this is an area where we should just do one thing. We have got to do everything that we can,” he said, stressing that the government had returned 9,400 people since coming into office.

But with the British economy’s rebound from recession slowing down sharply in the third quarter of the year, and small boat crossings already at a record 32,947, the Prime Minister has a hugely difficult task.

Team Trump: Who is in, and who is out?

Add the incoming Trump presidency into the mix and his challenges are likely to be greater still when it comes to crucial issues from Ukraine to climate change, and global trade. But what Trump has given him at least is greater clarity on what he needs to do to try to buck the political headwinds from the US to the continent, and win another term as a centre left incumbent.

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One year since Durov’s arrest: What’s happened and what’s ahead?

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One year since Durov’s arrest: What’s happened and what’s ahead?

One year since Durov’s arrest: What’s happened and what’s ahead?

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov was arrested one year ago and has since then been required to stay in France while under investigation.

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The future of crypto in the Asia-Middle East corridor lies in permissioned scale

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The future of crypto in the Asia-Middle East corridor lies in permissioned scale

The future of crypto in the Asia-Middle East corridor lies in permissioned scale

As Asia and the Middle East lead crypto adoption, success no longer comes from avoiding regulation, but mastering compliance to unlock true scale.

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Laws to largely abolish use of short prison sentences to be introduced within weeks

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Laws to largely abolish use of short prison sentences to be introduced within weeks

New laws to reduce the use of short prison sentences and toughen up community punishments are expected to be introduced within weeks.

Ministers are expected to introduce the new legislation to the Commons after the summer recess.

The changes will abolish most short-term prison sentences and introduce an earned release scheme, based on a model used in Texas, where prisoners who demonstrate good behaviour can be freed earlier – while those who disobey prison rules are detained for longer.

This will include some prisoners jailed for violent offences, although those convicted of the most dangerous crimes and for terrorism will be excluded.

Shabana Mahmood (left) was said to be impressed by the system in place in Texan prisons. Pic: PA
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Shabana Mahmood (left) was said to be impressed by the system in place in Texan prisons. Pic: PA

The new bill will introduce many of the changes recommended by the independent sentencing review, carried out by former Conservative justice minister David Gauke earlier this year. It represents one of the largest overhauls of sentencing in a generation and marks a cornerstone of the government’s effort to reduce the size of the prison population in England and Wales.

As well as reducing the use of short custodial sentences, the changes will also toughen up community sentences, introducing a wider range of punishments for those serving time outside of prison. This could include bans on going to stadiums to watch sports or music events, as well as restrictions on visiting pubs, and the wider use of drug testing.

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Becky Johnson speaks with Daniel, a former convict, who was released early after prisons reached capacity.

Other punishments could include driving and travel bans, as well as restriction zones – confining them to certain areas. Some of these can already be imposed for certain crimes, but the new laws will mean that these could be handed down by a judge for any offence.

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Under the legislation, which it is understood will be introduced in September, prison sentences of 12 months or less will be scrapped, except for in exceptional circumstances such as domestic abuse cases. Meanwhile, the length of suspended sentences – where an offender is not sent to prison immediately unless they commit a further crime – will be extended from two years to three.

The justice secretary is believed to have been inspired by the earned release scheme during a visit to the States, where she learned about the model being used in Texas to cut crime and bring their prison population under control.

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England is on course to run out of prison places for adult men by November, the Justice Secretary has warned.

Shabana Mahmood said that criminals who break the rules “must be punished” and that those serving their sentences in the community “must have their freedom restricted there, too”.

She added: “Rightly, the public expect the government to do everything in its power to keep Britain safe, and that’s what we’re doing.”

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Justice added: “This government inherited a prison system days away from collapse.

“That is why we are building 14,000 more prison places, with 2,500 already delivered, but we know we can’t build our way out of this crisis.

“Without further action, we will run out of prison places in months, courts would halt trials and the police [would] cancel arrests. That is why we are overhauling sentencing to make sure we always have the prison places needed to keep the country safe.”

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