Connect with us

Published

on

It was easy to wonder if there might be a little bit of a hangover this season. Mike Norvell weathered a strange, stair-stepping climb to greatness with Florida State — his Seminoles went 3-10 in his first 13 games, then 9-6 in the next 15, then won 19 in a row — but endured one of the most gut-wrenching season finishes you’ll ever see. First, the unbeaten Noles were snubbed out of a spot in the final four-team College Football Playoff; then, with a number of starters having either opted out or opted for season-ending surgery, they got completely humiliated 63-3 by Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

Norvell said all the proper things in spring ball, and despite 14 new starters, his reputation for finding difference-makers in the transfer portal got FSU ranked 10th in the preseason AP poll. But instead of a hangover, or a slow start, his Noles have completely no-showed in 2024.

Florida State’s win percentage has fallen by 82.9 percentage points at the moment, from 0.929 to 0.100. In the history of top-division college football, there have been 14,788 teams; only three have had their win percentage fall by more than that, and two played during World War I: 1917 Colorado State (from 6-0-1 to 0-7-1), 1919 Colorado Mines (from 4-0 to 0-4-2) and 2012 Southern Miss (from 12-2 to 0-12). The Seminoles are likely to finish 2-10, beating Charleston Southern this coming weekend and then losing to rival Florida. Those results would drop them to merely the eighth-largest win percentage collapse ever, behind four more teams from 1950 or earlier.

If you prefer advanced stats, FSU has also cratered by that measure: The Seminoles finished ninth in SP+ last season but are currently 92nd. In terms of percentile ratings, they’ve fallen from 94.1% to 33.0%. Granted, there’s still a sliver of friendly preseason projections impacting the current ratings, so the Noles could fall even further over the last couple of games, but that 61.1% drop is still the 40th largest on record and the fourth largest of the 2000s behind 2018 Louisville (from 87.8% to 15.1%), 2012 Southern Miss (from 73.1% to 4.5%) and 2009 Ball State (from 75.6% to 12.5%).

Like FSU with Jordan Travis, all three of those 21st century peers lost star quarterbacks from breakthrough teams — Southern Miss lost Conference USA-winning Austin Davis, Ball State lost Nate Davis and Louisville lost Heisman winner Lamar Jackson — and both BSU (Brady Hoke) and Southern Miss (Larry Fedora) had lost their respective head coaches to bigger jobs. Louisville, meanwhile, ended the Bobby Petrino era 10 games into 2018, as his Cardinals kept getting worse and worse.

Norvell isn’t a first-year coach, and by all accounts it appears he will keep his job into 2025, even if it has required the jettisoning of assistants. I like turning to the history books to get an idea for what might happen in the future, but this one’s tricky: When a team collapses with this level of force, it’s usually at either the start or end of a coach’s tenure (or, in the case of Southern Miss’ Ellis Johnson in 2012, both).

Acknowledging both the uniqueness of the coaching situation and the severity of the fall, however, I did find 10 reasonably decent comps. Here are 10 postwar, major-conference teams (or major independents) that (a) collapsed by at least 50.0% in terms of both SP+ percentile rating and win percentage, (b) did so with a coach that was not in his first season and (c) kept that coach for the following season. How long did it take each program to rebound? Did it happen under the same coach? Let’s take a look.


1946 Oklahoma State

Head coach: Jim Lookabaugh (eighth year)

Change in record: from 9-0 to 3-7-1

Change in SP+ ranking: from seventh to 82nd

What happened: Like Mike Gundy, Lookabaugh was a former OSU player who thrived as the Cowboys’ head coach. In 1944-45, they went 17-1, winning a Cotton Bowl and a Sugar Bowl and claiming a share of the 1945 national title. But in the postwar years, his program fell back to where it was prewar. Following their collapse in 1946, they went 3-7 again in 1947 before rebounding to go 6-4 with a Delta Bowl bid — they lost 20-0 to William & Mary — in 1948. Following a 4-4-2 season in 1949, Lookabaugh retired and moved into real estate.

The Cowboys’ next good season: 1953. Jennings Whitworth led the Pokes to a 7-3 campaign and parlayed that into the Alabama job a year later.


1956 Notre Dame

Head coach: Terry Brennan (third year)

Change in record: from 8-2 to 2-8

Change in SP+ ranking: from 12th to 84th

What happened: A star halfback for Notre Dame in the postwar years, Brennan was rushed into the head-coaching role at age 25 following Frank Leahy’s health-related retirement. He steered the ship well for a while, going 17-3 in 1954-55, but things fell apart during a massive youth movement in 1956 (albeit one in which Paul Hornung still won the Heisman). The growing pains produced improvement in the coming years, and Notre Dame was talented enough to end Oklahoma’s famed 47-game winning streak with a 7-0 upset in 1957 and finish 10th in the AP poll. But for the most part, the Irish were merely solid in 1957-58, beating poor teams, mostly losing to good ones and going 13-7 overall. Brennan was fired with a 32-18 record and replaced by NFL coach Joe Kuharich, who went just 17-23.

The Fighting Irish’s next good season: 1964. Granted, 1957 was pretty good under Brennan, but the Irish were mediocre for quite a few years under Kuharich and Hugh Devore before first-year coach Ara Parseghian engineered a 9-1 charge and No. 3 AP finish in 1964. They would win the national title two years later.


1960 SMU

Head coach: Bill Meek (fourth year)

Change in record: from 5-4-1 to 0-9-1

Change in SP+ ranking: from 34th to 91st

What happened: After landing his first head-coaching job at age 30, Bill Meek was 36 when he took over at SMU in 1957, with the team less than a decade removed from back-to-back top-10 finishes. Led by Dandy Don Meredith’s passing, the Mustangs finished 18th in the AP poll in 1958, and they began 1959 ranked fourth. But they went just 5-4-1 against a brutal schedule (they were 1-4 against ranked opponents), then totally collapsed in 1960 following Meredith’s graduation.

Meek stayed for 1961 but went just 2-7-1 and moved on to front office roles with the Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys. SMU replaced him with Hayden Fry.

The Mustangs’ next good season: 1966. Fry’s tenure began with four straight losing seasons, but he brought the Mustangs back to the Cotton Bowl, with a No. 10 AP finish, in Year 5.


1961 Illinois

Head coach: Pete Elliott (second year)

Change in record: from 5-4 to 0-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 36th to 103rd

What happened: An All-America quarterback at Michigan, Elliott led Cal to the Rose Bowl in 1958 before returning to the Big Ten to succeed Ray Eliot in 1960. Eliot had gone just 32-35-5 since a Rose Bowl bid in 1951, and Elliott went just 5-4 in his first season before an absolute collapse in Year 2. He was building something, though. After going just 2-7 in 1962, a talented Illini squad led by All-Americans Dick Butkus and Archie Sutton charged to 8-1-1 and won the Rose Bowl. They were above .500 in 1964 and ’65, too, but Elliott resigned in 1967 when Illinois became embroiled in a slush fund scandal.

The Illini’s next good season: 1963. The Illini beat two top-five teams (Northwestern and Michigan State) and topped Washington 17-7 in the Rose Bowl. This collapse actually had a happy ending of sorts. As long as you ignore that whole “slush fund” thing.


1985 Boston College

Head coach: Jack Bicknell (fifth year)

Change in record: from 10-2 to 4-8

Change in SP+ ranking: from 11th to 62nd

What happened: We’ve heard a lot about the “Flutie effect” through the years, where a school that enjoys sudden football success sees a burst of notoriety, higher application rates and so on. The initial effects of losing Flutie, however, weren’t great for Boston College. Following Flutie’s Heisman run and BC’s 10-win campaign and top-five finish in 1984, the Eagles quickly fell back to earth with poor Shawn Halloran behind center in 1985. After a wobbly 3-3 start, they lost five in a row and finished 4-8.

BC began 1986 in poor form again, starting just 1-3, but Halloran and the Eagles won eight straight from there, eventually beating Georgia 27-24 in the Hall of Fame Bowl.

The Eagles’ next good season: 1986. The rebound was swift. It was also short-lived. Bicknell would average just 3.5 wins over the next four seasons and, in 1991, he moved on to become head coach of the World League of American Football’s Barcelona Dragons, and in 1992-93 the Eagles surged briefly under Tom Coughlin.


1991 Louisville

Head coach: Howard Schnellenberger (seventh year)

Change in record: from 10-1-1 to 2-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 32nd to 103rd

What happened: I’m including Louisville here even though there was nothing “major” about the Cardinals program before Schnellenberger got a hold of it. They had finished ranked only once — they went 9-1 under Lee Corso in 1972 and finished 18th as part of the Missouri Valley — but finished under .500 every year from 1979-87. After going 14-8 under Schnellenberger in 1988-89, however, they charged to 10-1-1 and walloped No. 25 Alabama 34-7 in the Fiesta Bowl. It was a miraculous building job, but with quarterback Browning Nagle off to the pros and replacement Jeff Brohm injured early in the season, the Cardinals fell apart in 1991. They would rebound to 5-6 with a healthy Brohm in 1992, then broke through the following season.

The Cardinals’ next good season: 1993. Brohm threw for 2,626 yards (a good number for the day), and the Cardinals upset No. 23 Arizona State as part of a 7-1 start. They capped a 9-3 season with an 18-7 comeback win over Michigan State in the Liberty Bowl. Schellenberger would leave for Oklahoma a year later.


1998 Washington State

Head coach: Mike Price (10th year)

Change in record: from 10-2 to 3-8

Change in SP+ ranking: from 14th to 71st

What happened: Mike Price built a cyclical power in Pullman. The Cougars would slowly grow as a roster core matured, break through with a certain level of experience and then start over again. However, following the success of quarterback Ryan Leaf & Co. in 1997 — Wazzu won 10 games, reached the Rose Bowl for just the second time and finished in the AP top 10 for the first time — it took a little while to put the pieces back together. The Cougs went just 10-24 from 1998-2000. But Price’s next awesome quarterback, Jason Gesser, led a charge starting in 2001.

The Cougars’ next good season: 2001. The Cougs started 7-0, lost only to Oregon and Washington, both ranked, and beat Purdue 33-27 in the Sun Bowl. Both Gesser and Wazzu would raise their game further the next year, winning 10 games, reaching the Rose Bowl and finishing in the AP top 10 for the second of three straight seasons. (The third season would take place without Price, who left for an ill-fated stint at Alabama.)


2007 Notre Dame

Head coach: Charlie Weis (third year)

Change in record: from 10-3 to 3-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 26th to 87th

What happened: Congratulations to Notre Dame, the only team to show up on this list twice.

Following an impeccable 19-4 start as Irish head coach, Charlie Weis’ second season finished in disappointing fashion with blowout losses against both No. 3 USC and No. 4 LSU. Notre Dame lost eight offensive starters, including quarterback Brady Quinn (who was replaced by true freshman Jimmy Clausen), and Weis replaced defensive coordinator Rick Minter with Corwin Brown. The result: a historic collapse.

Like 2024 FSU, Notre Dame began the season 1-9, a run that included the Irish’s first loss to Navy since 1963. Notre Dame lost to three ranked opponents by a combined 96-24, and late-season wins over dire Duke and Stanford teams only redeemed things so much. They would improve in the following seasons, but only to 7-6 and 6-6, and Weis was dumped at the end of 2009.

The Fighting Irish’s next good season: 2012. Brian Kelly replaced Weis and went 8-5 in each of his first two seasons before an experienced squad, led by a strong offensive line and all-world linebacker Manti Te’o, went 12-0 in the regular season and reached the BCS championship game. It was the first of four top-10 seasons for Kelly in South Bend.


2021 Northwestern

Head coach: Pat Fitzgerald (16th year)

Change in record: from 7-2 to 3-9

Change in SP+ ranking: from 31st to 101st

What happened: Like Mike Price, Pat Fitzgerald succeeded in cycles. Between 2011 and 2019, Northwestern combined four losing records with four seasons of nine or more wins, and they likely would have won nine or more with a full season’s work in the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season too. They went 6-1 and qualified for the Big Ten championship game, where they led Ohio State late in the third quarter before succumbing 22-10. A Citrus Bowl win capped the school’s first top-10 finish in 25 years.

In 2021, however, the Wildcats entered the season with the nation’s lowest returning production. It showed. The defense went from great to decent, and the offense went from below average to horrendous. NU would go just 4-20 over the next two seasons, then Fitzgerald was fired for off-field reasons.

The Wildcats’ next good season: 2023. It didn’t turn out to be a sustainable recipe — Northwestern is right back to 4-6 this season with only a 5% chance of winning out to reach bowl eligibility, per SP+ — but under interim coach David Braun, the Wildcats went 6-2 in one-score finishes to reach 8-5 overall. That’s not as good as Fitzgerald’s best years, but it was still a seven-win improvement over the previous season.


2021 Indiana

Head coach: Tom Allen (fifth year)

Change in record: from 6-2 to 2-10

Change in SP+ ranking: from 18th to 94th

What happened: After an 8-5 campaign in 2019, their best season in 26 years, Tom Allen’s Hoosiers took another step forward in 2020, going 6-1 in the COVID-abbreviated regular season, losing only a tight game against unbeaten Ohio State and technically earning a spot in the Big Ten championship game before an emergency rule change left them out.

Michael Penix Jr. was brilliant until tearing his ACL in the sixth game, and the Hoosiers finished the season with a bowl loss against Ole Miss. Penix returned in 2021, but he was rusty and inconsistent, and he suffered another season-ending injury in early October. After a 2-2 start, Indiana lost eight straight games. Allen could never right the ship, going just 7-17 in 2022-23, his last two seasons in charge.

The Hoosiers’ next good season: 2024. A coaching change (to Curt Cignetti) and a roster flip have completely reversed IU’s fortunes. The Hoosiers are 10-0 for the first time; they are a modern turnaround story in terms of just how much you can change in a short amount of time. (The changes aren’t guaranteed to work — just ask 2024 Florida State — but there are new opportunities on the table now.)


Obviously an exercise like this is more anecdotal than scientific. Both collapses and rebounds are potentially easier, for better or worse, in an era with greater roster flexibility and potential turnover, and just because it took Hayden Fry a while to get SMU going again in the 1960s doesn’t necessarily mean much for Mike Norvell.

Still, from the old “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme” perspective, it is perhaps noteworthy that of the 10 teams above, only one rebounded immediately (1986 Boston College), but six had bounced back within three years, including six of the seven most recent examples. Only four of those six rapid rebounds happened with the same coach in charge, and each of the two examples from this decade turned around immediately with a new coach. Even Louisville, which crumbled so thoroughly to the ground in Bobby Petrino’s final season, bounced straight back to 8-5 the next season under Scott Satterfield.

Florida State probably isn’t going to be this horrendously awful for long, in other words. It was almost impossible for this to happen once — this genuinely is one of the greatest collapses this very old sport has ever seen — and it probably won’t happen again. But the odds of a full rebound under Norvell aren’t great either. He will bring new assistants and, most likely, another large transfer class to Tallahassee in 2025, but the collapse exposed a level of fragility within the program that might eventually require a head-coaching change to completely fix.

Continue Reading

Sports

Umpire hit in face by line drive at Mets-Twins

Published

on

By

Umpire hit in face by line drive at Mets-Twins

MINNEAPOLIS — Veteran umpire Hunter Wendelstedt had to leave the game in Minnesota on Wednesday after he was struck in the face behind first base by a line drive foul ball.

Wendelstedt instantly hit the ground after he took a direct hit from the line smash off the bat of New York Mets center fielder Tyrone Taylor in the seventh inning. Both Taylor and Twins right-hander Louis Varland winced immediately after seeing where the ball hit Wendelstedt, who is in his 28th major league season as an umpire.

The 53-year-old Wendelstedt was down for a minute while being tended to by Twins medical staff and was able to slowly walk off on his own, pressing a towel against the left side of his head. Second base umpire Adam Hamari moved to first on the three-man crew for the remainder of the game.

Continue Reading

Sports

Braves’ Strider goes 5 in return; Blue Jays fan 19

Published

on

By

Braves' Strider goes 5 in return; Blue Jays fan 19

TORONTO — Atlanta Braves right-hander Spencer Strider allowed two runs and five hits in five-plus innings in his return to the mound against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday afternoon.

Making his first big league appearance in 376 days because of surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, Strider struck out five, walked one and hit a batter in the 3-1 loss. He threw 97 pitches, 58 for strikes.

Blue Jays right-hander Chris Bassitt (2-0) struck out a season-high 10 and allowed three hits — all singles — as Toronto set a single-game, nine-inning record with 19 strikeouts. Bassitt lowered his ERA to 0.77 through four starts.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had two of the five hits off Strider, including an RBI single in the third inning and a solo home run into the second deck on a full-count slider in the sixth. The homer — a 412-foot drive — was Guerrero’s first of the season.

Strider followed that by walking Anthony Santander, and Braves manager Brian Snitker immediately replaced Strider with left-hander Dylan Lee.

Strider struck out Bo Bichette on three pitches to begin the game. His hardest pitch was a 98 mph fastball to Guerrero in the first.

Strider struck out Myles Straw to strand runners at second and third to end the second.

The Braves activated Strider off the injured list Wednesday morning and optioned right-handed reliever Zach Thompson to Triple-A.

Strider struck out 13 in 5⅓ innings in a dominant rehab start at Triple-A last Thursday, allowing one run and three hits. He threw 90 pitches, 62 for strikes and reached 97 mph with his fastball.

The Braves are off to a slow start, and the return of Strider could provide a big lift. He went 20-5 with a 3.86 ERA in 2023, finishing with a major league-best 281 strikeouts in 186⅔ innings and placing fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting.

Strider, 26, last appeared in the majors on April 5, 2024, against the Diamondbacks in Atlanta. He made two starts last season before undergoing surgery.

Continue Reading

Sports

The complicated life of a modern ace: How Paul Skenes has navigated it all by looking inward

Published

on

By

The complicated life of a modern ace: How Paul Skenes has navigated it all by looking inward

THE WORLD IS loud and fast and demanding, and to combat this, Paul Skenes forages for silence. He relishes the moments where the chaos gives way to blissful nothingness, just him and dead air. Right now, they are fewer and farther between than they’ve ever been in the past decade — a decade spent working toward this moment, when he is arguably the best pitcher in the world and inarguably the most internet-famous, which is the sort of thing that tends to put a damper on his quest for quiet.

“You can’t master the noise until you master the silence,” Skenes says. A coach told him that this offseason, and it spoke to Skenes, whose mastery of his first season in Major League Baseball — and a two-month stretch in which he went from top prospect to All-Star Game starting pitcher — set him on a path that only upped his daily dose of cacophony. He had been enjoying partaking in sound-free workouts, a far cry from the weightlifting sessions in Pittsburgh’s weight room — a petri dish of decibels and testosterone, suffused with grunts and clanks, ringed with TVs whose visual clamor complements the music thumping out of speakers, a lizard-brained heavenscape.

As fast as Skenes throws a baseball — last summer, it was a half-mile per hour faster than any starter in the game’s century-and-a-half-long history — he thinks slowly, methodically. There are things he wants to do — real, substantive things. He seeks silence because in it he finds clarity. About how to extract the very best from his gilded right arm — but also about who he is and who he aspires to be.

“The times that I’ll figure stuff out is when I’m just sitting and not doing anything,” Skenes says. “I’ll figure some stuff out, on the mound or talking to people, but there will be times where I’m just sitting or lying in bed or something like that. Silence. And there’s nothing else to do but think. I wonder — and I’m not comparing myself to him by any stretch — but Newton discovered gravity because he was sitting under a tree and an apple fell. You figure stuff out because you’re sitting in silence. Compartmentalizing stuff, thinking about the game, doing a debrief of myself. That’s how I’ll get pitch grips. Just sitting around and imagining the feel of the baseball and like, oh, I’m going to try that. It works or it doesn’t work. If you do that enough, you’re going to figure stuff out.”

The irony of this exercise is that the more Skenes figures out on the mound, the shriller his world will get. As Skenes embarks on his first full season in MLB, he’s learning what comes with the commodification of an athlete. Alongside the demand for peak performance come requests for his time and his autograph, pictures taken by gawking fans and GQ photographers. He is pitcher and pitchman. His teammates sometimes wonder whether it’s too much too soon — when they’re not needling him for it.

“You guys doing an interview about our savior?” one said this spring as a reporter queried two others about Skenes. They were, in fact, though the 22-year-old Skenes is far more than just the player Pittsburgh is praying can liberate its woebegone baseball franchise from the dregs of the sport. He is a generational pitcher for a generation that doesn’t pitch like all the previous ones — but he is also still just a kid trying to navigate his way through a universe not built for him. He is happy to forgo the convenience of an apartment adjacent to the stadium for a soundless drive to the suburbs that feels almost meditative. He can ponder the questions he would like to answer — not the ones proffered by others. For instance: In this life so antithetical to the one he thought he would be living, who, exactly, is he?

“It’s funny,” Skenes says. “When you start thinking about stuff like this, you find that you don’t know a whole lot more than you thought while also learning about yourself. I know myself a lot better — and, in some ways, a lot less.”


IN JANUARY 2023 — six months after he’d left the only place he ever wanted to go, seven months before he started a career he never imagined he’d have — Skenes was chatting with LSU baseball coach Wes Johnson about the year ahead. The previous summer, he had transferred to the SEC power from the Air Force Academy, where he had played catcher and pitched. For all of Skenes’ power as a hitter, Johnson wasn’t interested in developing another Shohei Ohtani. This was big-time college baseball, and after a fall semester that for Skenes consisted of online courses and eight or nine hours a day of training for baseball, Johnson, the former pitching coach for the Minnesota Twins, understood before most the implications of Skenes’ move.

“For the next two to three years, you will have a new normal every single day,” Johnson said.

Growing up, there were no conversations about the pressures of major league stardom in Skenes’ household. His father, Craig, was a biochemistry major who works in the eye medication industry and topped out in JV baseball. His mother, Karen, teaches AP chemistry and was in the marching band. Skenes was not allowed to touch a baseball after school until he finished his homework.

“It was never the big leagues really,” Skenes says. “It was ‘Be a good person, do your homework, go to church’ and all that. There’s nothing in my family that says that, yeah, this guy was born to be a big leaguer.”

Skenes’ parents told him to find what he loved and work really hard at it, which had led him to the Air Force. Skenes found comfort in the academy’s structure and rigor; the academy embodied his values of discipline and routine and responsibility. Skenes wanted to fly fighter jets and took deep pride in being an airman. That’s why Skenes cried when he decided, at the behest of his coaches, to leave for LSU after his sophomore year: He’d found what he’d loved and worked really hard at it and gotten it, only for something else to find him and cajole him away.

A big SEC school didn’t feel like Skenes’ speed — not the random public approaches, not the fanfare, not the Geaux Tigers of it all — but he understood why he needed to be there. He is a nerd who happened to stand 6-foot-6, weigh 260 pounds and throw a baseball with more skill than anyone in the country, and to turtle from that would be wasteful. The Air Force years had prepared him for the transition, and he ingratiated himself in Baton Rouge with a Sahara-dry sense of humor. Skenes would regularly walk around the clubhouse, stop at each teammate’s locker and rib him: “I worked harder than you today.” It was in jest, but it was also the truth, and when teammate Cade Beloso recounted the practice to ESPN’s broadcast team during LSU’s run to a College World Series title in 2023, Skenes recalls, “I’m like, dude, everybody thinks I’m a douche now. So there is still some of that. I still am that way, just not with everybody.”

He grappled with his identity at LSU, a California kid dropped into the bayou and forced to find his way. Meeting Livvy Dunne only compounded his need to adapt. An LSU gymnast with an innate talent for making social media content that bewitched Gen Z, Dunne was introduced to Skenes by mutual friends and she was immediately smitten. If LSU raised a magnifying glass over Skenes’ life and career — he’d gone from a fringe first-round pick to the top of draft boards on the strength of a junior season in which he struck out 209 in 122⅔ innings — Dunne brought the Hubble telescope. He didn’t even have Instagram or TikTok on his phone.

“I’m not perfect by any means, but I think that you can get yourself in trouble really quickly now because if you do anything, someone’s filming it,” Skenes says. “It takes a whole lot more energy to go out anywhere and pretend to be someone else than it does to go out and just be yourself. If being yourself doesn’t get you in trouble, then great. So that’s kind of the life that I think I was geared to live just based on the whole path coming up.

“I don’t think anything’s really changed. When I look at famous people or celebrities, I see a lot of the time people that do whatever they can because they think they can do whatever they can. Why is that? We’re all people. What has gotten you there? What has gotten you to being famous, to being a movie star? Whatever it is, you’re very good at what you do. So why change? I respect the people that don’t change a whole lot more than the other people that are, ‘Hey, I’m a celebrity.'”

Going with the first overall pick tested his willingness to stand by that ethos. Every pitch he threw invited more eyeballs, his rapid ascent to Pittsburgh an inevitability. The Pirates are a proud franchise hamstrung by an owner, Bob Nutting, fundamentally opposed to using his wealth to bridge the game’s inherent inequity. Skenes was their golden ticket, the best pitching prospect in more than a decade, and the excitement for his arrival at LSU paled compared to what greeted him May 11, when the Pirates summoned him to the big leagues. He was Pittsburgh’s, yes, but everyone in the baseball ecosystem wanted a piece of Skenes.

Over the next two months and 11 starts, he so thoroughly dominated hitters that he earned the start for the National League in the All-Star Game. His only inning included showdowns with Juan Soto (a seven-pitch walk that ended on a 100 mph fastball painted on the inside corner but not called a strike) and Aaron Judge (a first-pitch groundout on a 99 mph challenge fastball). He rushed home to spend the rest of the break with Dunne and settle back into a life he was learning to enjoy.

Skenes’ first season could not have gone much better. He threw 133 innings, struck out more than five hitters for every one he walked and posted a 1.96 ERA. The last rookie to start at least 20 games with a sub-2.00 ERA was Scott Perry in 1918, the tail end of the dead ball era. When Hall of Famer Cal Ripken Jr. announced Skenes as NL Rookie of the Year winner, Dunne broke into a wide smile and rejoiced as Skenes sat stone-faced before mustering a toothless grin. Memelords pounced instantaneously and Skenes was immortalized as the picture of utter disinterest.

Which is fine by him. He was proud, but pride can manifest itself in manifold ways, and if LSU and his first big league season taught Skenes anything, it’s that he is not beholden to external whims and expectations. He’s going to figure out who he is his way. And that starts with seeking out the people whose opinions do matter to him.


IN THE FIRST inning of a July game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Skenes left the Pirates’ dugout and beelined into the bowels of Chase Field. Randy Johnson had just been inducted as an inaugural member of the Diamondbacks Hall of Fame, and Skenes was not going to miss the opportunity to shake his hand and pick his brain.

For someone as polished and proficient as Skenes, he remains fundamentally curious. However exceptional his aptitude to pitch might be, he’s still enough of a neophyte that he’s got oodles to absorb, and he’s humble enough to know what he doesn’t know. Skenes is not shy about trying to learn, and over the past year he has sought advice from a wide array of players whose careers he would love to emulate.

Johnson’s would have ended 20 years earlier than his 2009 retirement had he not done the same. Like Skenes, he was an otherworldly talent. Unlike Skenes, he needed almost a decade to tame it. Johnson didn’t find success until Hall of Famers Nolan Ryan and Steve Carlton, as well as pitching guru Tom House, advised him. So he was glad to talk with Skenes and try to offer a sliver of the assistance he’d been afforded. First, though, he had a question.

“It all depends on what you’re looking for,” Johnson said. “Are you looking for a good game, a good season or a good career?”

Skenes’ answer was a no-brainer: a good career. The no-selling of his Rookie of the Year win is a perfect example. It’s an award. It’s nice. It’s also the reflection of a single great season among the many more he anticipates having. For Skenes, the goal is game-to-game excellence and longevity, the hallmarks of true greatness. Johnson fears that the modern usage of starting pitchers inhibits players’ ability to marry the two.

Over the past 25 years, the number of 100-plus-pitch games in MLB has dipped from 2,391 to 635 last season. There were 1,297 starts of 110 or more pitches in 2000 and 33 last year. Skenes — and Johnson — believe some of today’s starting pitchers are capable of more. For a pitcher like Skenes to be limited by strictures based more in fear of injury than data that supports their implementation gnaws at Johnson, who regularly ran up high pitch counts before retiring at 46.

The second a career begins, Johnson told Skenes, it is marching toward its end, and the truly special players use the time in between to defy expectations and limitations. If Skenes is as good as everyone believes — “He’s where I’m at six or seven years after I found my mechanics,” Johnson says — then he will either convince the Pirates to remove the restrictor plate or eventually find a team that will. Which is why Johnson’s ultimate advice to him was simple: “This is your career.”

“It will be a mental mission for him,” Johnson says. “I understood throughout the course of my career that if I can talk myself through a game, I will realize my mission. I trained myself to put me in those positions for success, get me through that. I know the pitchers can do these things I talk about, but they’re not allowed to. And that, to me, is mind-boggling. It makes no sense to me. You’re not going to see a pitcher grow mentally or physically if you take him out of situations.”

Longevity was on the mind of another subject from whom Skenes sought advice. When the Pirates went to New York last year, Skenes met with Gerrit Cole in the outfield at Yankee Stadium. Cole is perhaps the best modern analog for Skenes: born and raised in Southern California, big-bodied hard thrower. Both went to college and then were drafted No. 1 by the Pirates; both are thoughtful, diligent, dedicated. Amid the de-emphasis of starting pitching, Cole blossomed into the exception, a head-of-the-rotation stalwart on a Hall of Fame track who made at least 30 starts in seven seasons before undergoing season-ending elbow surgery this spring.

Unlike Johnson, who is now 61, Cole speaks the language of a modern pitcher. He is fluent in Trackman data, the benefit of good sleep habits and the influence diet can have on success.

“In the true pursuit of maximum human performance, these tools are providing an avenue for people to achieve that quicker,” Cole said earlier this month. “With the avenue out there to reach those maximum potentials quicker, the industry demands — the teams demand — almost a higher level of performance and, to a certain extent, an unsustainable level of performance. We’ve used the technology to maximize human performance. We haven’t used the technology quite well enough to maximize human sustainability.”

Cole is acutely aware of this. After more than 2,000 innings and 339 career starts, his right elbow blew out during spring training and will sideline him for the remainder of 2025. The correlation between fastball velocity and higher risk of arm injuries is established to the point that most in the industry regard it as causative. Johnson was the exception, not the rule, and Skenes knows enough math to know the fool’s errand of banking on outlier outcomes.

“My focus is on volume and durability,” Cole continued. “In order to give myself a chance to pitch for a long time to pitch for championship-contending teams, I have to be healthy. There’s a lot of incentives — as a competitor, financial — to make durability and sustainability the main goal.

“Skenes has the foundation to match that — and exceed it. He’s got more horsepower than me. He’s asking better questions early — questions about diet and sleep. He’s asking questions about mechanics. He’s tracking his throws. He has his own process with people that he surrounds himself with that are not only looking out for his performance right now but his performance long term. That’s important for guys to have advocates in their corner, not looking out just for this year. It’s really tough to find the right people.”

With Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer on the precipice of retirement, and Cole and Zack Wheeler in their mid-30s, a baton-passing is afoot. Because Skenes is best positioned to be the one grabbing it, Cole says, his advice runs the gamut. They spoke about pitching game theory, and Cole pointed out that the approach of Verlander, with whom he was teammates in Houston, runs counter to the max-effort philosophies espoused by starters who know that regardless of their ability to go deep into games, they’re not throwing much more than 100 pitches anyway.

Piece by piece, Skenes learns from those who have been what he intends to be. Pitchers, old and young, fill in some blanks, but he looks beyond the players who share his craft, too. He plans to spend more time talking with Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks’ star outfielder he met on a Zoom call for a rookie immersion program, and ask him: “What do you have that I need?” He reads books like “Relentless” and “Winning” by Michael Jordan’s longtime trainer, Tim Grover, and “Talent Is Overrated,” which has particular appeal for someone whose talent didn’t manage to attract draft interest from a single team out of high school despite playing in arguably the most talent-rich area in America.

“I don’t know if I’m going to get anything out of talking to anybody,” Skenes says, but at the same time he sees no harm in asking. Considering how much the game asks him to give, he’s owed a rebalancing.


THE FIRST TIME Toronto Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt met Skenes, he introduced himself with a proposition: “I’m gonna nominate you for the union board.”

The executive subcommittee of the Major League Baseball Players Association consists of eight players who help guide the union, particularly during collective bargaining. And with the current basic agreement set to expire following the 2026 season, labor discord has left people across the sport fearful of an extended work stoppage. The board is expected to wield even more power in the next round of negotiations, so the eight members are paramount in helping shape the game’s future.

Bassitt knew Skenes by reputation: that he was thoughtful, even-tempered, judicious — the kind of guy whose poker face on the mound would translate to a board room. He knows, too, the history of the union, that it’s at its strongest when the game’s most influential players serve as voices during the bargaining process. With the encouragement of veteran starter Nick Pivetta and former executive board head Andrew Miller, Skenes accepted his nomination and became the youngest player ever selected to the executive subcommittee.

“If we’re thinking about the future of the game,” Skenes says, “I think it’d be stupid to not have someone at least my age in there.”

Labor work is taxing. The game’s best players today often avoid the hassle. It did not have to be Skenes. But he harkened back to his years at the Air Force Academy in which cadets are taught the PITO model of leadership: personal, interpersonal, team and organization. In their first year, they focus on personal responsibility. Year 2 calls for them to take responsibility for another cadet. Skenes left before experiencing of team and organizational leadership at the academy, but the principles he learned apply enough that he felt a duty to serve as a voice for more than 1,200 other big leaguers, even if his service time pales compared to many of theirs.

The union and its rank and file are far from the only ones in the baseball world leaning on Skenes. MLB has struggled for years to create stars, and Skenes entered the big leagues with a Q score higher than 99% of players. Dunne’s presence alone invites a younger generation reared on the idea that baseball is boring to reconsider. Going forward, every marketing campaign MLB launches is almost guaranteed to include four players. One plays in Los Angeles (Ohtani). Two are in New York (Judge and Soto). The fourth resides in Pittsburgh.

More than anyone, the Pirates and their forlorn fan base regard Skenes as the fulcrum of their rebirth. They last won a division championship in 1992, when Barry Bonds still wore black and yellow. Their most recent playoff appearance was 2015, the last of three consecutive seasons with a wild-card spot (and losing the single game) when Cole was pitching for the franchise. Since then, they’ve finished fourth or fifth in the National League Central the past eight years and currently occupy the basement.

Nutting’s frugality hamstrings the Pirates perpetually. Never have they carried a nine-figure payroll. (This year’s on Opening Day: $91.3 million.) Since he bought the team in 2007, it has been in the bottom five 14 of 18 seasons. The Pirates’ revenue, according to Forbes, is almost identical to that of the Arizona Diamondbacks (2025 Opening Day payroll: $188.5 million), Minnesota Twins ($147.4 million), Kansas City Royals ($131.6 million), Washington Nationals ($115.6 million) and Cincinnati Reds ($114.5 million). Other owners privately peg Nutting as among the game’s worst.

Which only reinforces the fear among Pirates fans that Skenes is bound to follow Cole out the door via trade within a few years of his debut, lest the team lose him following the 2029 season to free agency. Rooting for the Pirates is among the cruelest fates in sports, with the combination of unserious owner and revenue disparities leaving general manager Ben Cherington to crank up a player-development machine in hopes of competing. Their free agent signings this winter were longtime Pirate Andrew McCutchen, left-hander Andrew Heaney, outfielder Tommy Pham, second baseman Adam Frazier and left-handed relievers Caleb Ferguson and Tim Mayza, all on one-year deals totaling $19.95 million. The last multiyear free agent contract Nutting handed out was to Ivan Nova in 2016.

“We’re going to create it from within the locker room, and it’s not going to be an ownership thing,” Skenes says. “Having a group of fans that are putting some pressure on the ownership and Ben and all that — it’s not a bad thing, but we have to go out there and do it. I kind of feel like we owe it to the city.”

Skenes had never been to Pittsburgh before he was drafted. “I do love it,” he said, and those who know him confirm Skenes’ sincerity. He wants nothing more at this point in his career than for his roommate and close friend Jared Jones, who’s on the injured list with elbow issues, to get healthy, and for Bubba Chandler, the Triple-A right-hander who’s topping out at 102 mph, to arrive, and for the Pirates’ farm system to churn out position players as regularly as it does pitchers. A couple more bats, a few relief arms, a free agent signing that’s more than a short-term plug, and you can squint and see a contender.

So much is out of Skenes’ control, though. All he can do is be the best version of himself. And bit by bit, he’s figuring out what that looks like.


SKENES IS ALWAYS looking for new ways to occupy himself when he’s away from the mound. In the back of his truck lays a compound bow. He shot it all of four times before abandoning it. In his bedroom sits a guitar gathering dust, $200 down the drain. He’s getting into golf these days, but he’s not sure it’s going to last.

“I get bored easily,” Skenes says. “I had a coach tell me that, and I was like, ‘I don’t think so. I think you’re wrong.’ And I’ve been thinking about that lately, and I think he’s right, because I’ve tried plenty of different hobbies and none of them have stuck.”

Similarly, Skenes wonders if the places his mind goes during his periods of silence are a function of boredom with baseball. “Not in a bad way,” he clarifies, but in the manner that behooves a player — that “there’s always something to be better at.”

In his most recent start Monday — a typical Skenes outing in which he allowed one earned run, struck out six and didn’t walk anyone over six innings — he threw six pitches: four-seam fastball, splinker, slider, sweeper, changeup, and curveball and splinker, the hybrid sinker-splitter he throws in the mid-90s to devastating effect. He toyed around with a cutter and two-seam fastball during spring training and could break them out at any moment. He waited until the fourth or fifth week of his season at LSU to unleash his curveball.

“I absolutely don’t believe that just because it’s the season, all right, this is what you got,” he says. “There’s no difference between spring training and the regular season in terms of getting better every day.”

This is his career, Skenes says, echoing Johnson, and he’s learning that he must wrangle control of it. He needs to chat with others who are what he wants to be, and he needs to find the silence to find himself, and he needs to set stratospheric expectations. Of all the aphorisms Skenes repeats, his favorite might be one he read in a book: “How you do anything is how you do everything.”

“There’s no option to not do the work that I need to do,” Skenes says. “… If I didn’t want to get in the cold tub a couple years ago or whatever it is, I wouldn’t. Now I do know whether I want to do it or not, it’s a nonnegotiable.”

If he keeps doing the work, Skenes believes, everything is there for the taking. The wins will come, and the success will follow, and the search for advice will give way to the dispensing of it. In the same way his training at the Air Force Academy readied him to handle the pressure cooker at LSU, it’s likewise destined to propel him into a role as leader and elder statesman in baseball.

For now, though, Skenes is trying to focus on today, tomorrow, this week. Even if the clock on his career is ticking, the hour hand has barely moved, and he doesn’t want this charmed life to fly by without taking the time to appreciate it. Earlier this spring, Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin asked Skenes: “What motivates you?”

Skenes considered the question and gave variations on the same answer: winning and getting better every day. Winning a baseball game is in his hands once every fifth day. But those are not the only wins within his control. Hard work is a win. Learning is a win. Leading is a win. Growing is a win. And in a life that’s only getting louder and faster and more demanding, silence is the sort of win that will help remind him who he is.

Continue Reading

Trending