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“We are in unchartered territory.”

Sir John Curtice understands polling like few others, but you do not have to be an expert to see the Labour government has had a rough start.

It’s been less than five months since Sir Keir Starmer’s landslide election victory and already two-thirds of Britons say they feel worse off.

That’s according to a new poll from Ipsos, the latest survey to assess public opinion of the new occupants of Downing Street.

And while the prime minister’s favourability rating plummets, Nigel Farage’s is on the rise.

Ipsos favorability towards politicians
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Ipsos favorability towards politicians

“We have never previously had a government starting with quite as low a share of the vote Labour got in July,” Sir John tells Sky News, referring to the party’s 174-seat majority despite a modest vote share of just 33.7%

“It’s also difficult to find a government that has slipped as much in the polls as this government has so quickly.”

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Labour are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

While “the Conservative party is not that popular”, we are in a new world of multi-party politics where “people have plenty of options, Reform UK is gaining traction”, Sir John adds.

It’s an “unprecedented situation”, and against it Labour face two fundamental difficulties – a leader who “hasn’t got a particularly strong political antenna” and a party “that doesn’t do narrative”.

“Voters are looking for them to fix the country,” Sir John says.

“Inevitably, they can’t in a matter of three to four months but they don’t have a positive narrative to explain why they have done what they have done.

“Their only argument is the Tories hid things and it’s worse than we thought. That’s a debatable proposition.”

But how detrimental is bad polling early on, and is it possible to shift the dial once a perception sets in?

‘They have certainly got time’

According to Keiran Pedley, director of UK Politics at Ipsos, “there’s not a hard and fast rule”.

Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.
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Two in five people feel worse off since Labour got elected.

He says: “If you look at past prime ministers, there are some that start at a certain level, and they fall gradually over time, and they lose an election or get replaced, like Rishi Sunak or Theresa May.

“But there are other examples where it’s not as linear – Margaret Thatcher, Tony Blair, David Cameron, their popularity ebbed and flowed.”

To some degree, this was all circumstantial. Thatcher was bolstered by the Falklands War, for example, while the perceived weaknesses of then Labour leader Ed Miliband helped Cameron bounce back from his austerity-hit approval ratings to win the 2015 election.

“These things are all relative to how competently the opposition are seen as well,” Mr Pedley says.

“Given Labour are not six months into what might be a five-year term they have certainly got time.”

‘Public is giving Labour a chance’

Indeed, some Labour insiders are not fazed by the polls, hoping the public will stick with them over time as they start to feel the benefits of the government’s longer-term pledges like growing the economy and investing in the NHS.

According to Luke Tryl, director of thinktank More in Common, there is evidence the public is giving them some grace on this front.

The polling might be grim, but in focus groups, he says people seem willing to “give them the benefit of the doubt”.

He said: “They will say ‘I am not that happy with what they have done so far, but I am willing to give them a chance’.”

That does not mean being complacent, however.

Mr Tryl says the next election is likely to come down to three metrics: Do people think the weekly shop is more affordable, can people get a GP appointment more easily, have the small boats stopped or at least reduced?

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Mr Tryl says Labour will want to start making some progress on those issues long before voters next go to the polls – perhaps even within a year – or else the mood against the party could “crystalise”.

“They could find themselves in a situation like Joe Biden, who actually had lots of popular policy but [by the election campaign], the mood had crystallised against him, it was too late.”

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How the polls ‘got the US election wrong’

‘Learn lessons from America’

James Matthewson, a Labour spokesman during the Jeremy Corbyn era, also urged Starmer to learn lessons from across the Atlantic.

He believes the prime minister “absolutely can turn things around”, but that requires “defining what a centre-left government should look like”.

“They cannot look like the same old establishment. They need to look sensible and moderate but at the same time show they are different.”

That’s not an easy task he admits, and one Starmer’s predecessor, Mr Corbyn, failed to pull off with his huge fiscal spending programme that was rejected at the 2019 election.

Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris reacts as she delivers remarks, conceding 2024 U.S. presidential election to President-elect Donald Trump, at Howard University in Washington, U.S., November 6, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
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Labour need to learn from the Democrats’ losses, say pollsters

With even less room for manoeuvre on public spending than then, Mr Matthewson says Labour need to define their values with policies that are bold and socially progressive – but don’t cost the earth.

“The private school tax policy is a clear example of this kind of thing,” he says. “Most people don’t send their kids to private schools, and most people like that. It’s a thing of values.”

Drug reform and democratic reform are other areas Labour could tap into to distinguish themselves from the Tories, he adds – warning Mr Farage will be “emboldened” by Donald Trump’s victory, and that poses a huge risk at the next UK election.

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100 days of Starmer

Their “core narrative”, he says, is “there is a left-wing establishment ruling the world”.

“It’s nonsense, but it’s the narrative that works. And the more you look like that, the more you’re trying to be responsible and fill the shoes of the previous government, the more you fall into that trap.”

Can Labour bounce back?

Of course, while Mr Biden had four years, Mr Starmer has five – so for now at least, time is indeed on his side.

As Sir John reminds us, there’s only really one event a leader cannot recover from – which Liz Truss knows all too well.

“If you preside over a market crisis, it’s game over – you are dead,” he says.

“Other than that, it’s delivery, delivery, delivery.”

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Starmer says former Tory ministers have ‘serious questions to answer’ over Afghan data breach

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Starmer says former Tory ministers have 'serious questions to answer' over Afghan data breach

Sir Keir Starmer has said former Tory ministers have “serious questions to answer” about how the names of Afghans who worked with UK forces were exposed.

Nearly 7,000 Afghan nationals are being relocated to the UK after their names were accidentally sent in an email in February 2022, when Boris Johnson was prime minister, but the leak was only discovered by the British military in August 2023, when Rishi Sunak was PM.

A super-injunction, preventing the reporting of the mistake, was imposed that year in an attempt to prevent the Taliban from finding out about the leak.

The Conservative government at the time then started transporting thousands of Afghans to the UK in secret as they were in danger.

On Tuesday, the injunction was lifted.

Politics latest: Starmer hammered over unexpected inflation rise

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Victim of Afghan data breach speaks to Sky

Kicking off Prime Minister’s Questions, Sir Keir said: “Ministers who served under the party opposite have serious questions to answer about how this was ever allowed to happen.

“The chair of the defence committee has indicated that he intends to hold further inquiries.

“I welcome that and hope that those who are in office at the time will welcome that scrutiny.”

The data breach saw a defence official accidentally release details of almost 19,000 people seeking to flee Afghanistan after the return of the Taliban.

Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch avoided mentioning the data breach, but Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey said it was “shocking” how it had been kept secret for three years.

Sir Ed said the prime minister will have the Lib Dems’ support if he decides to pursue a public inquiry.

Mr Healey’s Tory predecessor, Sir Ben Wallace, said he makes “no apology” for applying for the initial four-month injunction and insisted it was “not a cover-up”.

The scheme, which had been kept under wraps until yesterday, has so far cost hundreds of millions of pounds.

However, the total cost to the taxpayer of existing schemes to assist Afghans who are deemed eligible for British support, as well as the additional cost from the breach, will come to at least £6bn.

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Afghans being relocated after data breach

Earlier, Defence Secretary John Healey told Sky News he is “deeply uncomfortable” with the government using a super-injunction to keep the massive data breach hidden.

He said: “I’m really deeply uncomfortable with the idea that a government applies for a super-injunction.

“If there are any [other] super-injunctions in place, I just have to tell you – I don’t know about them. I haven’t been read into them.

“The important thing here now is that we’ve closed the scheme.”

Mr Healey was informed of the breach while in opposition, and earlier this year he commissioned a review that led to the injunction being lifted.

He said “accountability starts now” and added Labour had to deal with the risks, court papers, intelligence assessments and different schemes when they came to power last summer before they could lift the injunction.

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Inflation jumps to 3.6% on fuel and food price pressures

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Inflation jumps to 3.6% on fuel and food price pressures

The rate of inflation has risen by more than expected on the back of fuel and food price pressures, according to official figures which have prompted accusations of an own goal for the chancellor.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a 3.6% level for the 12 months to June – a pace not seen since January last year.

That was up from the 3.4% rate seen the previous month. Economists had expected no change.

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ONS acting chief economist Richard Heys said: “Inflation ticked up in June driven mainly by motor fuel prices which fell only slightly, compared with a much larger decrease at this time last year.

“Food price inflation has increased for the third consecutive month to its highest annual rate since February of last year. However, it remains well below the peak seen in early 2023.”

A key driver of food inflation has been meat prices.

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Beef, in particular, has shot up in cost – by more than 30% over the past year – according to Association of Independent Meat Suppliers data reported by FarmingUK.

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Beef has seen the biggest percentage increase in meat costs. Pic: PA

High global demand alongside raised production costs have been blamed.

But Kris Hamer, director of insight at the British Retail Consortium, said: “While inflation has risen steadily over the last year, food inflation has seen a much more pronounced increase.

“Despite fierce competition between retailers, the ongoing impact of the last budget and poor harvests caused by the extreme weather have resulted in prices for consumers rising.”

It marked a clear claim that tax rises imposed on employers by Rachel Reeves from April have helped stoke inflation.

Balwinder Dhoot, director of sustainability and growth at the Food and Drink Federation, said: “The pressure on food and drink manufacturers continues to build. With many key ingredients like chocolate, butter, coffee, beef, and lamb, climbing in price – alongside high energy and labour expenses – these rising costs are gradually making their way into the prices shoppers pay at the tills.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves said of the data: “I know working people are still struggling with the cost of living. That is why we have already taken action by increasing the national minimum wage for three million workers, rolling out free breakfast clubs in every primary school and extending the £3 bus fare cap.

“But there is more to do and I’m determined we deliver on our Plan for Change to put more money into people’s pockets.”

The wider ONS data is a timely reminder of the squeeze on living standards still being felt by many households – largely since the end of the COVID pandemic and subsequent energy-driven cost of living crisis.

Record rental costs alongside elevated borrowing costs – the latter a result of the Bank of England’s action to help keep a lid on inflation – have added to the burden on family budgets.

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Is the cost of living crisis over?

Most are still reeling from the effects of high energy bills.

The cost of gas and electricity is among the reasons why the pace of price growth for many goods and services remains above a level the Bank would ideally like to see.

Added to that is the toll placed on finances by wider hikes to bills. April saw those for water, council tax and many other essentials rise at an inflation-busting rate.

The inflation figures, along with employment data due tomorrow, are the last before the Bank of England is due to make its next interest rate decision on 7 August.

The vast majority of financial market participants, and many economists, expect a quarter point cut to 4%.

That forecast is largely based on the fact that wider economic data is suggesting a slowdown in both economic growth and the labour market – twin headaches for a chancellor gunning for growth and juggling hugely squeezed public finances.

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Professor Joe Nellis, economic adviser at the advisory firm MHA, said of the ONS data: “This is a reminder that while price rises have slowed from the highs of 2021-23, the battle against inflation is far from over and there is no return to normality yet – especially for many households who are still feeling the squeeze on essentials such as food, energy, and services.

“However, while the Bank of England is expected to take a cautious approach to interest rate policy, we still expect a cut in interest rates when the Monetary Policy Committee next votes on 7th August.

“Despite inflation at 3.6% remaining above the official 2% target, a softening labour market – slowing wage growth and decreasing job vacancies – means that the MPC will predict inflation to begin falling as we head into the new year, justifying the lowering of interest rates.”

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‘My family is finished’: Afghan man in UK military data breach says he feels betrayed

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'My family is finished': Afghan man in UK military data breach says he feels betrayed

An Afghan man who worked for the British military has told Sky News he feels betrayed and has “completely lost (his) mind” after his identity was part of a massive data breach.

He told The World with Yalda Hakim about the moment he discovered he was among thousands of Afghans whose personal details were revealed, putting him at risk of reprisals from the Taliban.

The man, who spoke anonymously to Sky News from Afghanistan, says he worked with British forces for more than 10 years.

But now, he regrets working alongside those troops, who were first deployed to Afghanistan in 2001.

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Afghans being relocated after data breach

“I have done everything for the British forces … I regret that – why (did) I put my family in danger because of that? Is this justice?

“We work for them, for [the] British, we help them. So now we are left behind, right now. And from today, I don’t know about my future.”

He described receiving an email warning him that his details had been revealed.

He said: “When I saw this one story… I completely lost my mind. I just thought… about my future… my family’s.

“I’ve got two kids. All my family are… in danger. Right now… I’m just completely lost.”

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The mistake by the Ministry of Defence in early 2022 ranks among the worst security breaches in modern British history because of the cost and risk posed to the lives of thousands of Afghans.

On Tuesday, a court order – preventing the media reporting details of a secret relocation programme – was lifted.

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British soldiers wait to be transported to a base in the provincial capital Lashkar Gar in Camp Bastion, Helmand, February 5, 2010. REUTERS/Baris Atayman (AFGHANISTAN - Tags: MILITARY POLITICS CONFLICT)
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Reuters file pic

Defence Secretary John Healey said about 6,900 Afghans and their family members have been relocated or were on their way to the UK under the previously secret scheme.

He said no one else from Afghanistan would be offered asylum, after a government review found little evidence of intent from the Taliban to seek retribution.

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

But the anonymous Afghan man who spoke to Sky News disputed this. He claimed the Taliban, who returned to power in 2021, were actively seeking people who worked with British forces.

“My family is finished,” he said. “I request… kindly request from the British government… the King… please evacuate us.

“Maybe tomorrow we will not be anymore. Please, please help us.”

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