Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire unlikely to last, says former UK spy chief Richard Dearlove
The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is unlikely to last in the long term, according to a former British spy chief.
Sir Richard Dearlove – who ran MI6 between 1999 and 2004 – explained his concerns with the recently announced deal in an interview on the Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge.
As well as the situation in the Middle East, Sir Richard told Sophy that Europe is in a “war situation” with Russia, rather than a pre-war one, and that he believes the deal to hand the Chagos Islands to Mauritius will collapse.
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The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah came into force in the early hours of the morning on Wednesday local time.
Since it began, people have been streaming back into the southern regions of Lebanon as Israel begins to withdraw its forces.
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Ceasefire day one: What happened?
Sir Richard says the deal is a “retreaded agreement from 2006” which was meant to keep Hezbollah separate from Israel’s northern border with Lebanon.
This was supposed to be moderated by the UN and the Lebanese army, but over time “did absolutely nothing”, he added.
Instead, the former intelligence chief says the ceasefire suits both sides for the time being, as Israel has pushed Hezbollah away from the northern border – at least “in the short to medium term”.
He added: “The Israelis must know how much of the infrastructure of Hezbollah they’ve taken down.
“I mean, they haven’t taken it down completely, but maybe the Lebanese state can reassert some of its authority as the government of Lebanon and keep Hezbollah to an extent under control.
“We just have to wait and see what happens.”
Sir Richard went on to tell Sophy that the conflict has left Iran – which backs Hezbollah – “more exposed” as layers of its anti-Israel proxies have been removed.
This could lead to a more “direct confrontational situation” if Iran were to launch another attack on Israel.
Read more:
Will the ceasefire last?
Israel imposes curfew in Lebanon
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Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire explained
‘I think it’s an actual war’
On the Ukraine war, Sir Richard said the UK government needs to “face up to the fact that the Russians think they’re in a state of war with us”.
The former top spook said the situation is an “actual war”.
He said: “We have to face up to the fact that the Russians think they’re in a state of war with us.
“Donald Tusk [the Polish prime minister] has referred to it as a pre-war situation. I think he’s wrong. I think it’s an actual war.”
“Now, that doesn’t mean in the Russian mind, the military conflict, but it means hybrid conflict or different types of conflict in different arenas of interest.”
Sir Richard says he’s always believed it’s important to have a dialogue with “one’s opponents or enemies” – saying this is especially key during a “contained conflict” in Europe which has the potential to spill over.
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On the Chagos Islands – which the UK has agreed to hand over to Mauritius – the ex-MI6 chief said he believes “it won’t go through”.
Sir Richard says Marco Rubio – Donald Trump’s nomination for secretary of state, the US’s top foreign minister – believes Mauritius is too close diplomatically to China.
“I mean, I very much hope that Rubio and Trump shoot this agreement down. I mean, the Chagos Islands are strategically, really important,” he said.
Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, marks their 50th birthday amid a year of rising institutional and geopolitical adoption of the world’s first cryptocurrency.
The identity of Nakamoto remains one of the biggest mysteries in crypto, with speculation ranging from cryptographers like Adam Back and Nick Szabo to broader theories involving government intelligence agencies.
While Nakamoto’s identity remains anonymous, the Bitcoin (BTC) creator is believed to have turned 50 on April 5 based on details shared in the past.
According to archived data from his P2P Foundation profile, Nakamoto once claimed to be a 37-year-old man living in Japan and listed his birthdate as April 5, 1975.
Source: Web.archive.org
Nakamoto’s anonymity has played a vital role in maintaining the decentralized nature of the Bitcoin network, which has no central authority or leadership.
The Bitcoin wallet associated with Nakamoto, which holds over 1 million BTC, has laid dormant for more than 16 years despite BTC rising from $0 to an all-time high above $109,000 in January.
Satoshi Nakamoto statue in Lugano, Switzerland. Source: Cointelegraph
Nakamoto’s 50th birthday comes nearly a month after US President Donald Trump signed an executive order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Asset Stockpile, marking the first major step toward integrating Bitcoin into the US financial system.
Related: Bitcoin at 16: From experiment to trillion-dollar asset
Nakamoto’s legacy: a “cornerstone of economic sovereignty”
“At 50, Nakamoto’s legacy is no longer just code; it’s a cornerstone of economic sovereignty,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.
“Bitcoin’s reserve status signals trust in its scarcity and resilience,” Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:
“What’s fascinating is the timing. Fifty feels symbolic — half a century of life, mirrored by Bitcoin’s journey from a white paper to a trillion-dollar asset. Nakamoto’s vision of trustless, peer-to-peer money has outgrown its cypherpunk roots, entering the halls of power.”
However, lingering questions about Nakamoto remain unanswered, including whether they still hold the keys to their wallet, which is “a fortune now tied to US policy,” Lian said.
Related: Bitcoin’s next catalyst: End of $36T US debt ceiling suspension
Is Satoshi Nakamoto wealthier than Bill Gates?
In February, Arkham Intelligence published findings that attribute 1.096 million BTC — then valued at more than $108 billion — to Nakamoto. That would place him above Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates on the global wealth rankings, according to data shared by Coinbase director Conor Grogan.
Satoshi’s new addresses. Source: Conor Grogan
If accurate, this would make Nakamoto the world’s 16th richest person.
Despite the growing interest in Nakamoto’s identity and holdings, his early decision to remain anonymous and inactive has helped preserve Bitcoin’s decentralized ethos — a principle that continues to define the cryptocurrency to this day.
Magazine: 10 crypto theories that missed as badly as ‘Peter Todd is Satoshi’
The United States stock market lost more in value over the April 4 trading day than the entire cryptocurrency market is worth, as fears over US President Donald Trump’s tariffs continue to ramp up.
On April 4, the US stock market lost $3.25 trillion — around $570 billion more than the entire crypto market’s $2.68 trillion valuation at the time of publication.
Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market”
Among the Magnificent-7 stocks, Tesla (TSLA) led the losses on the day with a 10.42% drop, followed by Nvidia (NVDA) down 7.36% and Apple (AAPL) falling 7.29%, according to TradingView data.
The significant decline across the board signals that the Nasdaq 100 is now “in a bear market” after falling 6% across the trading day, trading resource account The Kobeissi Letter said in an April 4 X post. This is the largest daily decline since March 16, 2020.
“US stocks have now erased a massive -$11 TRILLION since February 19 with recession odds ABOVE 60%,” it added. The Kobessi Letter said Trump’s April 2 tariff announcement was “historic” and if the tariffs continue, a recession will be “impossible to avoid.”
Source: Anthony Scaramucci
On April 2, Trump signed an executive order establishing reciprocal tariffs on trading partners and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports from all countries.
Trump said the reciprocal tariffs will be roughly half the rate US trading partners impose on American goods.
Related: Bitcoin bulls defend $80K support as ‘World War 3 of trade wars’ crushes US stocks
Meanwhile, the crypto industry has pointed out that while the stock market continues to decline, Bitcoin (BTC) remains stronger than most expected.
Crypto trader Plan Markus pointed out in an April 4 X post that while the entire stock market “is tanking,” Bitcoin is holding.
Source: Jeff Dorman
Even some crypto skeptics have pointed out the contrast between Bitcoin’s performance and the US stock market during the recent period of macro uncertainty.
Stock market commentator Dividend Hero told his 203,200 X followers that he has “hated on Bitcoin in the past, but seeing it not tank while the stock market does is very interesting to me.”
Meanwhile, technical trader Urkel said Bitcoin “doesn’t appear to care one bit about tariff wars and markets tanking.” Bitcoin is trading at $83,749 at the time of publication, down 0.16% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
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