Assisted dying bill: This is how MPs plan to vote
The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.
MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.
There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.
That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.
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It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.
Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.
Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.
How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.
There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.
So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.
This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.
So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.
There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.
Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.
This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.
Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.
In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.
“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”
Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home
David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?
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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill
What could make the difference?
Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.
But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.
Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.
The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.
MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill
More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.
In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.
They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.
Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.
He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.
Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA
Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.
In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.
As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.
But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.
A 53-year-old man has been charged after a car was driven into a crowd at Liverpool FC’s trophy parade.
Paul Doyle, from the West Derby area of Liverpool, has been charged with seven offences, Merseyside Police said.
The businessman, who is a father-of-three, is accused of two counts of unlawful and malicious wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm, and two counts of causing unlawful and malicious grievous bodily harm with intent to cause grievous bodily harm.
Paul Doyle
Doyle is also accused of two counts of attempted unlawful and malicious grievous bodily harm with intent to cause grievous bodily harm, and one count of dangerous driving.
He is due to appear before Liverpool Magistrates Court on Friday.
The charges relate to six people, including two children. A wounding charge and an attempted grievous bodily harm charge relate to a child.
A police car was outside Doyle’s four-bedroom detached family home in the West Derby area on Thursday morning.
According to his social media, he has travelled extensively including Japan, Fiji, India and Australia. Doyle has posted pictures of himself competing in triathlons, and climbing Mount Kilimanjaro.
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New Liverpool incident footage
Thousands of fans were gathered in Liverpool city centre on Monday to celebrate the Premier League champions’ title win when a car struck a crowd on Water Street.
Police said a total of 79 people were injured in the incident, with the youngest aged nine, and the oldest being a 78-year-old.
Seven people remain in hospital in a stable condition.
Forensic officers at the scene in Water Street. Pic: PA
‘Huge volume of evidence’
Chief crown prosecutor for the CPS Mersey-Cheshire, Sarah Hammond, told a news conference on Thursday that the investigation was at an early stage and a “huge volume of evidence” was being reviewed.
“This includes multiple pieces of video footage and numerous witness statements. It is important to ensure that every victim gets the justice they deserve.
“The charges will be kept under review as the investigation progresses.”
Police ‘working tirelessly’
Also at the briefing where the charges were announced was Assistant Chief Constable of Merseyside Police, Jenny Sims, who said: “I fully understand how this incident has left us all shocked and saddened, and I know many will continue to have concerns and questions.
“Our detectives are working tirelessly, with diligence and professionalism, to seek the answer to all of those questions. When we are able to, we will provide further information.”
The youngest victim injured in the Liverpool parade crash on Monday is nine years old, police have said.
They added that the oldest is 78, with all 79 people injured understood to be British. Seven remain in hospital in a stable condition.
Merseyside Police declined to say what drug the 53-year-old man arrested over the incident is alleged to have taken.
“We wouldn’t go into this detail at this stage of the investigation,” the force said.
Police at the scene in Liverpool. Pic: AP
Forensic officers in Water Street. Pic: PA
Police are still questioning the driver and were granted further time to do so on Wednesday.
Officers have until Thursday evening to question the man from West Derby.
He is in custody on suspicion of attempted murder, dangerous driving and drug driving.
Police believe the car which struck pedestrians was able to follow an ambulance crew attending to someone suffering a heart attack after a road block was temporarily lifted.
Hundreds of thousands of Liverpool fans had turned out to celebrate their team’s Premier League title when the incident unfolded on Water Street just after 6pm on Monday.
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‘My boy in his pram, got bounced’
‘The best day of my life turned into worst’
Sky News interviewed a lifelong Liverpool fan who said his five-month-old son was “bounced” 15ft (4.6m) in his pram after they were hit by the vehicle.
The child was not counted in the police’s injury tally.
Daniel Eveson, 36, also said his partner had been driven over.
“The best day of my life turned into [the] worst,” Mr Eveson said.
He added: “Me and my partner were flat on the roof, on the bonnet… we were just both trying to hold on for dear life with Ted next to us.
“And my partner went under the wheels of the car, of the front of the car, and it rolled over her leg, and I just bounced off to the side, but my boy and his pram got bounced totally in the opposite direction – about 15ft down the road.”
Read more:
How the parade crash unfolded
Police given more time to question Liverpool suspect
Why police released ‘unprecedented’ details
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer travelled to Liverpool to meet with police chiefs and the local metro mayor.
He said he was being kept informed of developments, adding: “The scenes on Monday were just awful, to see how incredible joy at an amazing achievement turned to horror in a moment.”
Messages of support have been sent to the people of Liverpool, including from the King who said: “I know that the strength of community spirit for which your city is renowned will be a comfort and support to those in need.”
The Prince and Princess of Wales said they were “deeply saddened” by the incident.
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