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The first vote on the assisted dying bill is not only hugely consequential, it’s also hugely unpredictable and even as the vote draws near it still feels like it could go either way.

MPs will debate the bill, brought forward by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater, in parliament today before they get a free vote on the legislation.

There are a few reasons why the potential outcome of the vote is difficult to predict. Firstly, the last Commons vote on this issue was back in 2015. It was also a Private Members’ Bill and a free vote, that was defeated by 331 to 119 – 199 MPs didn’t vote and one abstained.

That may seem like a useful starting point to predict future results but there has been an unprecedented turnover of MPs since then.

Politics latest: Starmer blames Tories for ‘open borders’

It was less than a decade ago but over two-thirds of those MPs from 2015 are no longer in parliament. This means there’s no voting record that can help us out this time round.

Secondly, it’s a free vote so we can’t, as we usually would, look to the political parties to work out the numbers.

Every single one of the 650 MPs must make up their minds for themselves and they have all taken a slightly different approach to the process.

How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying
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How MPs have told Sky News they will vote on assisted dying

Some came out straight away and declared their position publicly. Some took their time and have only decided in the last few days, putting out statements on social media platforms.

There are also those who prefer to keep it to themselves, and some who are genuinely still undecided and will be until they walk through the voting lobbies.

So, to get a sense of what could happen, at Sky News we have been monitoring declarations as well as reaching out to every MP personally.

This has given us, on the eve of the second reading, an informative but still incomplete picture.

So far we have confirmed that 181 MPs will vote for the bill, while 148 say they will vote against, and 300 are either undecided or haven’t revealed their decision.

There are also 20 MPs that won’t vote – the SNP because the changes won’t apply in Scotland, Sinn Fein who don’t sit in Westminster, and the Speaker and Deputy Speakers.

Of those who will vote but whose position is still unknown, about two-thirds are Labour MPs – a big chunk of those are brand new.

This is the deciding cohort, who just a few months into their roles will make a life-or-death decision that will influence generations to come – no pressure.

Ms Leadbeater has said she hopes parliament will “show itself at its best” by voting in favour of the bill.

In a statement on Thursday night, she said: “I hope this parliament will also be remembered for this major social reform that gives people autonomy over the end of their lives and puts right an injustice that has been left on the statute books for far too long.

“People will be looking in on parliament as it debates this important change to the law – a change that, when we most need it, could bring comfort to any one of us or to somebody we love.”

Read more on assisted dying:
Analysis: Bill could be wrecked by dirty tricks
Five stories that bring the assisted dying debate home

David Cameron comes out in support of bill
How MPs are making up their minds
What does the bill propose?

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Lord Cameron to support assisted dying bill

What could make the difference?

Most MPs tell us they have been poring over the legislation line-by-line and listening intently to their constituents.

But beyond that, there are external factors that will no doubt have influenced their thinking.

Public opinion will be high on the list, with the latest YouGov poll – one of many – showing an overwhelming majority (73%) of the public are in favour of a change in the law.

The other will be how Cabinet ministers vote, with many high profile and respected names, Ed Miliband and Hilary Benn among them, coming out in favour.

This is how MPs spend their first day in parliament
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MPs will vote in the House of Commons on the bill

More controversial though are those who oppose the bill.

In particular, the Health Secretary Wes Streeting and the Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood have made the news with their views.

They will both have to take a leading role in implementing the legislation if it passes.

Mr Streeting shocked Westminster when he revealed he had changed his mind after voting for the 2015 version.

He also ruffled feathers among colleagues when he appeared to breach the etiquette around free votes, by repeatedly raising concerns around extra pressures on the NHS and making the case for improving palliative care instead.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting delivering a keynote speech on the second day of the 2024 NHS Providers conference and exhibition, at the ACC Liverpool. Picture date: Wednesday November 13, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS NHS. Photo credit should read: Peter Byrne/PA Wire
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting changed his mind on the issue. Pic: PA

Mr Streeting’s position and approach have made the bill’s supporters nervous that new MPs will fall in behind him.

In contrast, other big beasts – the prime minister, the chancellor and the foreign secretary – remain silent on which way they will go, aware that their opinions could sway the result.

As it stands, after all the number crunching, it looks likely that this landmark legislation will pass the second reading.

But with so many unknowns, both sides will feel that even at this late stage, it’s still impossible to call.

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Congressional letter summons Andrew Mountbatten Windsor to US to explain Epstein links

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Congressional letter summons Andrew Mountbatten Windsor to US to explain Epstein links

The US Congress has written to Andrew Mountbatten Windsor requesting an interview with him in connection with his “long-standing friendship” with paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said it is investigating the late financier’s “sex trafficking operations”.

It told Andrew: “The committee is seeking to uncover the identities of Mr Epstein’s co-conspirators and enablers, and to understand the full extent of his criminal operations.

“Well-documented allegations against you, along with your long-standing friendship with Mr Epstein, indicate that you may possess knowledge of his activities relevant to our investigation.

“In the interest of justice for the victims of Jeffrey Epstein, we request that you co-operate with the committee’s investigation by sitting for a transcribed interview with the committee.”

Read the letter in full

The congressional committee wants to understand any 'activities' relevant to its Epstein investigation. PA file pic
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The congressional committee wants to understand any ‘activities’ relevant to its Epstein investigation. PA file pic

Virginia Giuffre, who died in April, accused Andrew of sexually assaulting her after being introduced by Epstein. Andrew has always vehemently denied her accusations.

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The letter to the former prince, is addressed to Royal Lodge, Windsor Great Park, the home he agreed last week to leave, when he was stripped of his royal titles.

It outlines his “close relationship” with Epstein and references a recently revealed 2011 email exchange in which Andrew told him “we are in this together”.

And it says the committee has identified “financial records containing notations such as ‘massage for Andrew’ that raise serious questions”.

Read more:
Andrew’s fall from grace
Can William escape Andrew questions in Brazil?

The committee said Andrew’s links to Epstein “further confirms our suspicion that you may have valuable information about the crimes committed by Mr Epstein and his co-conspirators”.

The letter, signed by 16 members of Congress, requested Andrew responds by 20 November.

It came as the King officially stripped his disgraced brother of both his HRH style and his prince title.

The move followed the publication Ms Giuffre’s posthumous memoirs, and the US government’s release of documents from the paedophile’s estate.

Ms Giuffre alleged she was forced to have sex with Andrew three times – once at convicted sex trafficker Ghislaine Maxwell’s home in London, once in Epstein’s address in Manhattan, and once on the disgraced financier’s private island, Little St James.

The incident at Maxwell’s home allegedly occurred when Ms Giuffre was 17 years old.

Epstein took his own life in a New York prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking and conspiracy charges.

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Congress requests Andrew explain Jeffrey Epstein friendship – read letter in full

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Congress requests Andrew explain Jeffrey Epstein friendship - read letter in full

Andrew Mountbatten Windsor has been summoned by Congress to answer questions about his friendship with Jeffrey Epstein.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform said it is investigating the late financier’s “sex trafficking operations”.

Andrew’s friendship with the paedophile has come under intense scrutiny in recent years and has led to him being stripped of his titles and made to leave his accommodation at Royal Lodge on the Windsor estate.

The memoir of Virginia Giuffre, one of Epstein’s victims, was posthumously published last month and in it she alleged she had sex with Andrew three times while she was a teenager.

Andrew paid a settlement to Ms Giuffre in 2022 and has always denied wrongdoing. He has previously resisted calls to be summoned to the US.

Here is the letter in full:

We write to seek your cooperation in the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform’s (Committee) investigation into Jeffrey Epstein’s sex trafficking operations. The Committee is seeking to uncover the identities of Mr. Epstein’s co-conspirators and enablers and to understand the full extent of his criminal operations.

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Well-documented allegations against you, along with your long-standing friendship with Mr. Epstein, indicate that you may possess knowledge of his activities relevant to our investigation. In the interest of justice for the victims of Jeffrey Epstein, we request that you cooperate with the Committee’s investigation by sitting for a transcribed interview with the Committee.

It has been publicly reported that your friendship with Mr. Epstein began in 1999 and that you remained close through and after his 2008 conviction for procuring minors for prostitution.

It has also been reported that you traveled with Mr. Epstein to his New York residence, the Queen’s residence at Balmoral, and to Mr. Epstein’s private island in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where you have been accused of abusing minors.

This close relationship with Mr. Epstein, coupled with the recently revealed 2011 email exchange in which you wrote to him “we are in this together,” further confirms our suspicion that you may have valuable information about the crimes committed by Mr. Epstein and his co-conspirators.

As you are well aware, Virginia Roberts Giuffre made several allegations that you abused her when she was just 17 years old.

In her 2021 lawsuit, Ms. Giuffre alleged that she was forcibly “lent out” to you for sexual purposes on three separate occasions. In addition to these allegations, flight logs document several instances in which you were a passenger on Mr. Epstein’s plane between 1999 and 2006, while his criminal activities were ongoing.

In response to a subpoena issued to the Epstein estate, the Committee has identified financial records containing notations such as “massage for Andrew” that raise serious questions regarding the nature of your relationship with Mr. Epstein and related financial transactions.

In her posthumous memoir, Ms. Giuffre expressed a fear of retaliation if she made allegations against you, and writes that the settlement agreement you executed with her restricted her to one-year gag order designed to protect the Crown’s reputation.

Recent reporting confirms those fears, as law enforcement authorities in the United Kingdom have launched an investigation into allegations that you asked your personal protection officer to “dig up dirt” for a smear campaign against Ms. Giuffre in 2011.

This fear of retaliation has been a persistent obstacle to many of those who were victimized in their fight for justice. In addition to Mr. Epstein’s crimes, we are investigating any such efforts to silence, intimidate, or threaten victims, and are interested in any avenues that may further shed light on these activities.

Given these recent events and the appalling allegations that have come to light from Ms. Giuffre’s memoir and other reliable sources, the Committee requests that you make yourself available for a transcribed interview with the Committee and provide insight into the crimes of Jeffrey Epstein’s co-conspirators.

Due to the urgency and gravity of this matter, we ask that you provide a response to the Committee’s interest by November 20, 2025.

The Committee on Oversight and Government Reform is the principal oversight committee of the House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X. If you have any questions about this request, please contact Committee Democratic staff at (202) 225-5051. Thank you for your prompt attention to this request.

The letter is signed by 16 members of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.

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‘Significant hooliganism’ within Maccabi Tel Aviv fan base is reason for Aston Villa match ban

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'Significant hooliganism' within Maccabi Tel Aviv fan base is reason for Aston Villa match ban

Police have revealed to Sky News they banned Maccabi Tel Aviv fans from Aston Villa due to “significant levels of hooliganism” in the fan base jeopardising safety around the match – rather than threats to visiting Israelis.

This is the first time a West Midlands Police chief has publicly explained the intelligence behind the decision that was angrily opposed by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

The revelation to us comes after MPs on the Home Affairs Committee this week asked for police to explain the decision.

Excluding Israeli fans was portrayed by the government as antisemitic by turning part of Birmingham into a no-go zone for Thursday night’s Europa League match.

“We are simply trying to make decisions based on community safety, driven by the intelligence that was available to us and our assessment of the risk that was coming from admitting travelling fans,” Chief Superintendent Tom Joyce told Sky News.

“I’m aware there’s a lot of commentary around the threat to the [Maccabi] fans being the reason for the decision. To be clear, that was not the primary driver. That was a consideration.

“We have intelligence and information that says that there is a section of Maccabi fans, not all Maccabi fans, but a section who engage in quite significant levels of hooliganism.

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“What is probably quite unique in these circumstances is where as often hooligans will clash with other hooligans and it will be contained within the football fan base.

“We’ve had examples where a section of Maccabi fans were targeting people not involved in football matches, and certainly we had an incident in Amsterdam last year which has informed some of our decision-making.

“So it is exclusively a decision we made on the basis of the behaviour of a sub-section of Maccabi fans, but all the reaction that could occur obviously formed part of that as well.”

Maccabi’s match at Ajax last year saw attacks on Israeli fans condemned as antisemitic, leading to five people being convicted.

But there was also violence from supporters of the Israeli league champions, with anti-Arab chants.

Maccabi chief executive Jack Angelides on Wednesday said in a Sky News interview there were “blatant falsehoods” spread about the Amsterdam incident and complained about a lack of clarity over the ban from West Midlands Police.

“We are absolutely not saying that in Amsterdam that the only fans causing trouble were the Maccabi fans,” said Chief Superintendent Joyce.

“But what we were very clearly told is that they played a part in causing trouble particularly a day before the match.

“That absolutely resulted in following day there being attacks on Maccabi fans.

“So it wasn’t all one way, but… escalating violence as a consequence is what we were trying to prevent here in Birmingham.”

More than 700 police officers were being deployed for the match from around 10 forces across the country, with pro-Palestinian protests demanding a ban on Israeli teams from European football over the war in Gaza.

Ahead of the game anti-Israeli signs appeared on lampposts, including ones saying “Zionists not welcome” – a reference to those backing the existence of the Jewish state of Israel.

Asked about the phrase, Chief Superintendent Joyce said: “Our understanding is that they don’t quite contravene hate crime, but they’re acceptable as a matter of judgement.

“We’ve taken legal advice on whether it crosses the threshold to be a hate crime and our understanding is that it does not. And as with many of these things, there is often a question of degree at which something becomes lawful to unlawful and it’s a fine judgement.”

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