What to look out for in Ireland’s general election – with counting underway
Counting is under way in Ireland’s general election.
But unlike the UK, it will take more than a few hours for all 174 seats to be filled – and much longer for a government to be formed.
Here’s three things you should look out for as the votes are being counted.
A first preference vote for Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonlad as ballot papers are counted at RDS Simmonscourt, Dublin. Pic: PA
1. The main parties’ race to 88
That’s the number needed for a majority in Ireland‘s lower house of parliament, the Dail.
But the three largest parties – Fianna Fail (FF), Fine Gael (FG) and Sinn Finn (SF) – have not fielded enough candidates to reach this, so they will be on the hunt for coalition partners.
In the last election, FF won 38 seats, SF picked up 37 and FG won 35 with much the same support that Friday’s exit poll suggests.
Ballots being counted this morning. Pic: PA
Count verifiers look on as counting takes place in Dublin. Pic: PA
The centre-right Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, who ruled in the last government with the Green Party, have vowed not to enter a coalition with the left-wing Sinn Fein.
So if the exit poll closely mirrors the final result, a FF-FG coalition looks likely – along with another party or independent candidates.
Explainer: How Ireland’s election voting system works
But if Sinn Fein translates their support into significantly more seats than they picked up last time, it would put the party in a stronger negotiating position – and Mary Lou McDonald could still have an outside chance of becoming Ireland’s first female taoiseach.
2. How the smaller parties fare
Ireland’s electoral system – proportional representation by single transferable vote – means smaller parties pick up more seats than their UK counterparts.
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Meet Ireland’s first-time voters
On the left, there is Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens – all on between 4% and 6% in the exit poll – as well as the People Before Profit-Solidarity alliance.
On the right, there is SF breakaway party Aontu and several newly formed far-right parties, the largest of which is Independent Ireland.
Read more: How Trump looms over Ireland’s election
At least one of these groups is likely to form a government with FF and FG – depending on how many seats they pick up.
3. How the independent candidates perform
A quirk of Ireland’s electoral system is the high number of independent candidates.
The exit poll put independents at 14.6% – meaning they are likely to win a significant number of seats. In 2020, independent candidates picked up 19 seats with 12.2% of the vote.
It’s likely that a three-party coalition will still fall short of reaching the 88-seat threshold for a majority, so support from independents will become important.
In 2016, nine independents were members of the Fine Gael-led minority government, with three holding ministerial posts.
The independents come from across the ideological spectrum and often focus on hyper-local issues.
World
Ukraine war: 14 killed as Russian missile and drone attacks strike Kyiv – including American citizen
Russian missile and drone attacks have killed 14 people in Kyiv overnight, according to Ukrainian officials.
A 62-year-old US citizen who suffered shrapnel wounds is among the dead.
At least 99 others were wounded in strikes that hollowed out a residential building and destroyed dozens of apartments.
Pic: AP
Emergency workers were at the scene to rescue people from under the rubble.
Images show a firefighter was among those hurt, with injured residents evacuated from their homes.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the attack as “one of the most terrifying attacks on Kyiv” – and said Russian forces had fired 440 drones and 32 missiles as civilians slept in their homes.
“[Putin] wants the war to go on,” he said. “It is troubling when the powerful of this world turn a blind eye to it.”
Pic: AP
Ukraine’s interior minister, Ihor Klymenko, said 27 locations across the capital have been hit – including educational institutions and critical infrastructure.
He claimed the attack, in the early hours of Tuesday morning, was one of the largest on the capital since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Drones swarmed over the city, with an air raid alert remaining in force for seven hours.
One person was killed and 17 others injured as a result of separate Russian drone strikes in the port city of Odesa.
Pic: Reuters
It comes as the G7 summit in Canada continues, which Ukraine’s leader is expected to attend.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy was due to hold talks with Donald Trump – but the president has announced he is unexpectedly returning to Washington because of tensions in the Middle East.
Ukraine’s foreign minister says Moscow’s decision to attack Kyiv during the summit is a signal of disrespect to the US.
Moscow has launched a record number of drones and missiles in recent weeks, and says the attacks are in retaliation for a Ukrainian operation that targeted warplanes in airbases deep within Russian territory.
Kyiv’s mayor Vitali Klitschko says fires broke out in two of the city’s districts as a result of debris from drones shot down by the nation’s air defences.
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Pic: AP
On X, Ukraine’s foreign ministry wrote: “Russia’s campaign of terror against civilians continues. Its war against Ukraine escalates with increased brutality.
“The only way to stop Russia is tighter pressure – through sanctions, more defence support for Ukraine, and limiting Russia’s ability to keep sowing war.”
Olena Lapyshnak, who lived in one of the destroyed buildings, said: “It’s horrible, it’s scary, in one moment there is no life. I can only curse the Russians, that’s all I can say. They shouldn’t exist in this world.”
World
Israeli tank shelling kills 51 people waiting for aid in Khan Younis, Hamas-run health ministry says
Israeli tank shellfire has killed at least 51 Palestinians in Khan Younis, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza.
Hundreds of others have been injured, with “dozens of critical cases” arriving at a medical complex.
It is feared that the number of fatalities will rise.
Pic: Reuters
The strikes took place as people waited for United Nations and commercial aid trucks in the southern Gaza city.
Witnesses said that Israeli forces carried out an airstrike on a nearby home before opening fire toward the crowd.
“Emergency, intensive care, and operating rooms are experiencing severe overcrowding,” a statement said.
Officials say medical staff “are operating with limited supplies of life-saving medicines” – with the ministry renewing an “urgent appeal” to increase aid.
Pic: Reuters
Hours earlier, Donald Trump had joined other G7 leaders to call for a “de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza”.
The Israeli military is yet to comment on this incident.
On Monday, Gaza’s health ministry said at least 34 people were shot dead near food distribution centres.
This was the highest reported daily total since Israel and US-backed aid centres opened last month, with thousands of Palestinians moving through Israeli military-controlled areas to reach them.
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