Sir Keir Starmer faces another first-time challenge this week.
Still just months into the job, the prime minister will be delivering his first speech to the annual Lord Mayor’s Banquet in the City of London on Monday.
It will be a rare chance to see the Labour leader in white tie and tailcoat in the glistening historical setting of Guildhall, surrounded by the rich and powerful. Unless of course, Sir Keir follows his Labour predecessor Gordon Brown and tries to dress down.
Sir Keir is bound to dwell on the economy, the poor inheritance he believes he has received from the Conservatives, and his determination to stay the course set in the recent budget.
By convention, however, the prime minister’s Guildhall speech focuses on foreign policy and Britain’s place in the world.
The grandees in the dining hall, and the waiting world beyond it, will be listening out for how Sir Keir’s thoughts are shaping up since his election victory and after the crash course in international diplomacy he has undertaken in very uncertain times.
Foreign affairs matter for PMs – and the UK
The UK did “take back control” with the Brexit referendum vote. This country is now an independent entity outside the big power blocks of the United States, the European Union, China and Russia, and unaffiliated with the rest of the world in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America.
The UK must try to navigate a successful future for itself at a time when there is a widespread populist impulse to put national interests first ahead of any multinational obligations.
The new prime minister has been an easy target for all the time he has spent travelling abroad. The critics who suggest he should have stayed at home need to say which of the official engagements he should have cancelled.
Do they really think he should have abandoned the UK’s place at the top table for meetings of the United Nations, the G7 summit of Western democracies, the G20 gathering of the world’s biggest economies or COP29 on climate change?
Are they saying he wasted his time forging inaugural bilateral contacts with key allies including presidents like Macron, Biden, Trump, Zelenskyy, and Scholz.
Debutant prime ministers are often surprised by the amount of time they have to spend on foreign affairs. As they become more experienced, most of them realise it is one of the most important aspects of heading a government.
Diplomacy also has attractions for them personally. It is an area of policy where they deal with equals, other foreign leaders, and can take decisions – at the most extreme staying in and out of wars – without having to manoeuvre around colleagues and parliament at home.
Most cabinet ministers and MPs are rightly preoccupied with domestic issues such as health, education and welfare. This leaves a prime minister and their advisers plenty of leeway for exercising statecraft.
Envoys matter almost as much as the top job
The personal relationships prime ministers and their envoys develop with their foreign counterparts can have a significant impact on the national interest.
Non-elected officials or representatives, operating in so-called “back channels”, are likely to matter more and have more direct influence than in other policy areas.
Consuelo Thiers, a political psychologist at the University of Edinburgh, studies leadership approaches to international relations.
She believes: “Starmer’s personality is characterised by a high belief in his ability to control events, a strong need for power, and a complex approach to decision-making.”
So far he has moved deliberatively, gaining experience and avoiding black-and-white positions. He is also slowly assembling a team of advisers which seems to hark back to the New Labour government of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
The top appointment is Jonathan Powell as national security adviser. Powell was Tony Blair’s chief of staff throughout his decade in power. He was a risk-taking participant in the backchannels which resulted in the 1998 Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. Before that, he was a career British diplomat, serving in Washington DC.
Starmer previously hired Powell on a one-off basis to negotiate a settlement over the future of the Chagos Islands. That agreement handed sovereignty over the islands to Mauritius but kept access for 99 years to the Diego Garcia military base for US forces.
But the deal is now in danger of unravelling because of elections in the US and Mauritius. Weeks before he officially starts being national security adviser, Powell is shuttling between capitals again trying to find a compromise.
Marco Rubio, the US president-elect’s nominee for secretary of state, has said the arrangement would “provide an opportunity for communist China to gain valuable intelligence on our naval support facility”.
Meanwhile, the new Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam also wants to review the deal.
The Islands will only be the first example of the big power rivalries between US and Chinese interests which Powell will have to grapple with on Starmer’s behalf.
The UK’s other essential relationship is with Europe.
Starmer has reaffirmed that there will be no return to freedom of movement, the single market or a customs union with the EU.
But, unlike his Conservative predecessors, he has energetically pursued warmed relations with European and EU leaders.
Where the Conservatives set up a Department for Exiting the EU, Starmer has established an EU directorate in the Cabinet Office, separate from the Foreign Office, under the minister Nick Thomas-Symonds.
The government is now advertising for a senior official to reset relations with Brussels. Michael Ellam, who moved with Gordon Brown from the Treasury to Number 10, is expected to get the job, according to The Financial Times. Ellam is a veteran heavyweight civil servant with many connections in the EU having worked as chair of the EU financial services committee during the UK’s membership.
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Olly Robbins and Antonia Romeo, the two front runners to become the next cabinet secretary, also both have significant foreign policy experience, in Brussels and New York respectively, although Starmer may choose one of the two other domestic-focussed civil servants from the four-person shortlist.
His newly appointed director of policy in Downing Street is Liz Lloyd. She was Powell’s deputy in the Blair government and has since worked as an international investor and banker in Africa.
It’s less likely, but some have been advising the prime minister to take up Nigel Farage’s offer to be a linkman to the Donald Trump administration.
As he looks out across the candelabras of Guildhall on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer may only hint at his worldview in the reassuring knowledge that he is quietly putting together a reliable team who will watch his back and look out for the national interest in the unavoidable backchannels of diplomacy.
A real-life drama is unfolding just outside Hollywood. Ferocious wildfires have ballooned at an “alarming speed”, in just a matter of hours. Why?
What caused the California wildfires?
There are currently three wildfires torching southern California. The causes of all three are still being investigated.
The majority (85%) of all forest fires across the United States are started by humans, either deliberately or accidentally, according to the US Forest Service.
But there is a difference between what ignites a wildfire and what allows it to spread.
However these fires were sparked, other factors have fuelled them, making them spread quickly and leaving people less time to prepare or flee.
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1:35
LA residents face ‘long and scary night ahead’
What are Santa Ana winds?
So-called Santa Ana winds are extreme, dry winds that are common in LA in colder winter months.
The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection warned strong Santa Ana winds and low humidity are whipping up “extreme wildfire risks”.
Winds have already topped 60mph and could reach 100mph in mountains and foothills – including in areas that have barely had any rain for months.
It has been too windy to launch firefighting aircraft, further hampering efforts to tackle the blazes.
These north-easterly winds blow from the interior of Southern California towards the coast, picking up speed as they squeeze through mountain ranges that border the urban area around the coast.
They blow in the opposite direction to the normal onshore flow that carries moist air from the Pacific Ocean into the area.
The lack of humidity in the air parches vegetation, making it more flammable once a fire is started.
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Wildfires spread as state of emergency declared
The ‘atmospheric blow-dryer’ effect
The winds create an “atmospheric blow-dryer” effect that will “dry things out even further”, said Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).
The longer the extreme wind persists, the drier the vegetation will become, he said.
“So some of the strongest winds will be at the beginning of the event, but some of the driest vegetation will actually come at the end, and so the reality is that there’s going to be a very long period of high fire risk.”
What role has climate change played?
California governor Gavin Newsom said fire season has become “year-round in the state of California” despite the state not “traditionally” seeing fires at this time of year – apparently alluding to the impact of climate change.
Scientists will need time to assess the role of climate change in these fires, which could range from drying out the land to actually decreasing wind speeds.
But broadly we know that climate change is increasing the hot, dry weather in the US that parches vegetation, thereby creating the fuel for wildfires – that’s according to scientists at World Weather Attribution.
But human activities, such as forest management and ignition sources, are also important factors that dictate how a fire spreads, WWA said.
Southern California has experienced a particularly hot summer, followed by almost no rain during what should be the wet season, said Professor Alex Hall, also from UCLA.
“And all of this comes on the heels of two very rainy years, which means there is plenty of fuel for potential wildfires.
“These intense winds have the potential to turn a small spark into a conflagration that eats up thousands of acres with alarming speed – a dynamic that is only intensifying with the warmer temperatures of a changing climate.”
The flames from a fire that broke out yesterday evening near a nature reserve in the inland foothills northeast of LA spread so quickly that staff at a care home had to push residents in wheelchairs and hospital beds down the street to a car park.
A billowing cloud of black smoke loomed over the main shopping street with its fancy restaurants and designer shops, threatening to destroy what many here consider to be their slice of paradise.
It is a reminder of the destructive power of this sort of weather.
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1:02
Martha Kelner reports from Pacific Palisades
Reza, a lifelong resident of Pacific Palisades, was evacuating with what belongings he could fit in his SUV.
“This is surreal, this is unbelievable,” he said.
“I’ve lived here all my life but this is like nothing I’ve ever seen before. This is the worst of the worst.
“I’ve never seen it with these winds, we just keep praying that the direction changes. But if the direction changes it’s to the detriment of somebody else, that’s the horrible part about it all.”
January is not normally wildfire season, but these are not ordinary circumstances, the blazes being propelled by the strongest winds in southern California for more than a decade, fuelled by drought conditions.
Authorities are warning that the winds will grow stronger overnight, meaning that conditions will likely worsen before they get better.
Police and the fire department went door to door, urging people to evacuate or risk losing their lives.
On the main road out of town, there was gridlock traffic, with some abandoning their cars to flee on foot.
On Mount Holyoake Avenue, Liz Lerner, an 84-year-old with congestive heart failure, was on her driveway and visibly panicked.
“I don’t drive, and I’m by myself,” she said.
“I have no relatives, I’m 100% alone and I don’t know what to do. My father built this house in 1949, this is my family home and this is the end. I’ve never seen anything like this.”
Around the corner, another man was hosing down his multi-million dollar home in a bid to save his property from the fire bounding towards it from a nearby canyon.
“I can’t decide whether to evacuate or stay and carry on hosing down my house,” he said.
“It’s hard to know which way the flames are heading.”
Other blazes were breaking out across LA with firefighting planes grounded because of winds which are growing stronger by the hour.
More homes, neighbourhoods and lives are under threat from this perfect and petrifying storm.
Soldiers working within the UK’s special forces discussed concerns that Afghans who posed no threat were being murdered in raids against suspected Taliban insurgents, an inquiry has been told.
One soldier, who was reading operational reports of SAS actions, said in an email in 2011 that they feared that UK special forces seemed “beyond reproach”, with “a golden pass allowing them to get away with murder”.
Another soldier said they were aware of rumours of special forces soldiers using “dropped weapons” – which were munitions allegedly placed next to targets to give the impression they were armed when they were shot.
It was also suggested that the act was known as a “Mr Wolf” – supposedly a reference to the fixer “Winston Wolfe” from the film Pulp Fiction.
The claims come from hundreds of pages of documents detailing evidence given to a public inquiry into alleged war crimes committed by British special forces soldiers in Afghanistan between 2010 and 2013.
The independent inquiry was ordered by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) after the BBC reported claims that SAS soldiers from one squadron had killed 54 people in suspicious circumstances during the war in Afghanistan more than a decade ago.
The inquiry is examining a number of night-time raids carried out by British forces from mid-2010 to mid-2013.
On Wednesday, it released evidence from seven UK special forces (UKSF) witnesses who gave their evidence in secretfor national security reasons and cannot be named.
None of the soldiers who gave evidence to the inquiry, which opened in 2023, said they had witnessed any such behaviour themselves.
‘Fighting age males’
One of the soldiers, known only as N1799, told the inquiry they had raised concerns in 2011 about a unit referred to as UKSF1 after having a conversation about its operations with one of its members on a training course.
“During these operations it was said that ‘all fighting age males are killed’ on target regardless of the threat they posed, this included those not holding weapons,” their witness statement said.
“It was also indicated that ‘fighting age males’ were being executed on target, inside compounds, using a variety of methods after they had been restrained. In one case it was mentioned a pillow was put over the head of an individual before being killed with a pistol.”
The soldier said he was also informed that weapons were being “dropped” next to victims “to give the impression that a deceased individual had been armed when shot”, the inquiry heard.
Such a dropped weapon was colloquially known as a “Mr Wolf”, but N1799 stated he had “no idea at all” where the term came from.
Counsel to the inquiry Oliver Glasgow KC asked: “When you heard it described as a ‘Mr Wolf’, was that used by one person or by more than one person or can you not remember?”
N1799 replied: “At least two or three people.”
Mr Glasgow continued: “Have you seen the film Pulp Fiction by Quentin Tarantino, where the individual who introduces himself as Mr Wolf says ‘I’m Mr Wolf and I’m here to solve problems’? Do you remember that?
The witness said: “No, I don’t.”
Mr Glasgow said: “Well, it is probably not essential viewing for anyone, but that particular individual in that film, he acts to clear up problems and to make crimes go away, does he not?”
N1799 responded: “Right. I had not put two and two together.”
The inquiry heard that N1799 escalated their concerns to other senior officers who took them seriously.
But, questioned by Mr Glasgow on whether they had any concerns for their own personal wellbeing after making allegations, the witness said: “I did then and I still do now.”
‘Mud-slinging’
Another officer, referred to as N2107, emailed colleagues expressing his disbelief at summaries of operations which suggested detained suspects had been allowed back into compounds where they were then said to have picked up weapons and attempted to attack the unit.
Meanwhile, a special forces commanding officer told the inquiry he believed reporting allegations of murder to his counterpart in another unit may have been seen as “mud-slinging”.
He said there was an “at times fractious and competitive” relationship between his unit and the accused unit.
In one of the hearings, he was asked whether he thought about reporting the allegations to his direct counterpart within the unit, but said it was a “deliberate act” to report up rather than sideway as it may be seen as “mud-slinging”.
British military police have previously conducted several inquiries into allegations of misconduct by forces in Afghanistan, including those made against the SAS.
However, the MoD has said none found enough evidence for prosecutions.
The inquiry’s aim is to ascertain whether there was credible information of extra-judicial killings, whether investigations by the military police years later into N1799’s concerns were properly conducted, and if unlawful killings were covered up.