Syria’s rebel offensive: A setback for the regime, or the start of a major escalation?
It had appeared to be a conflict frozen in time, but the operation launched with blistering speed by Syrian opposition fighters has turned all of that upside down.
It is also a potent reminder of the complexity of the Syrian conflict.
What was a stalemate has revealed that the regime of President Bashar al Assad may very well be standing on clay feet.
Whether the rebel push continues its momentum and transforms into a wider offensive remains to be seen – but its significance politically and militarily is immense.
Aleppo was once the country’s largest city and was a key battleground in the civil war – it has also been a stronghold for the regime.
Rebels stand in front of University of Aleppo. Pic: Reuters
What’s happening now is a major blow to the government as it shows how fragile its grip on power has become.
It also demonstrates that the rebels have the determination and the military capability to challenge regime authority in key strategic areas.
The rebels comprise many different groups who’ve fought against the regime since the start of the Syrian uprising.
Among them, the biggest is Hayat Tahrir al Sham, which controls most of the north-western territory held by the opposition.
Opposition forces take control of areas outside Aleppo. Pic: AP
The group was linked to the terrorist group al Qaeda but has renounced those ties.
Much of the video that’s emerging is reminiscent of the violent uprising against the Assad dictatorship in 2011 – descending into a bloodbath from the so-called ‘Arab Spring’.
Officially, the offensive was launched as a way of stopping regime air strikes on opposition-held territory.
It may be that the rebels themselves are surprised by the lack of government resistance and how successful they’ve been in the space of three short days.
The Syrian government has portrayed what’s happening as a “large-scale terrorist attack” and has vowed to reverse the losses.
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Syrian rebels take flag from monument
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There are of course wider questions as to why this is happening now?
President Assad would most likely have lost the war had he not been bailed out by the Russian air force and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, as well as a tapestry of militant groups – including Hezbollah.
Russia is struggling for resource in Ukraine and has diverted its air force from the Syrian theatre.
Iran and its proxies have been battered by Israel after they tried to exploit the carnage of the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel.
With these forces not as strong as they were, there’s been a chink in the regime’s armour and the rebels it would seem have seen their chance and not let the opportunity escape.
The question now is whether the opposition fighters will be able to remain on the front foot and consolidate their position and perhaps even launch further attacks on centres of power.
At the moment, the situation remains highly volatile and uncertain.
The advance certainly challenges the established order, but it is still far from clear whether this is a setback for the regime, or the start of a major phase of escalation.
The twin threats of climate change and Russian malign activity in the Arctic must be taken “deadly seriously,” David Lammy has warned.
Sky News joined him on the furthest reaching tour of the Arctic by a British foreign secretary.
We travelled to Svalbard – a Norwegian archipelago that is the most northern settled land on Earth, 400 miles from the North Pole.
It is at the heart of an Arctic region facing growing geopolitical tension and feeling the brunt of climate change.
Mr Lammy told us the geopolitics of the region must be taken “deadly seriously” due to climate change and “the threats we’re seeing from Russia”.
We witnessed the direct impact of climate change along Svalbard’s coastline and inland waterways. There is less ice, we were told, compared to the past.
David Lammy and Norway’s Foreign Minister Barth Eide view the melting Blomstrandbreen glacier. Pic: PA
The melting ice is opening up the Arctic and allowing Russia more freedom to manoeuvre.
“We do see Russia’s shadow fleet using these waters,” Mr Lammy said. “We do see increased activity from submarines with nuclear capability under our waters and we do see hybrid sabotage of undersea cables at this time.”
In Tromso, further south, the foreign secretary was briefed by Norwegian military commanders.
The foreign secretary visiting SvalSat, a satellite ground station which monitors climate in Svalbard. Pic: PA
Vice Admiral Rune Andersen, the Chief of Norwegian Joint Headquarters, told Sky News the Russian threat was explicit.
“Russia has stated that they are in confrontation with the West and are utilising a lot of hybrid methods to undermine Western security,” he said.
But it’s not just Vladimir Putin they’re worried about. Norwegian observers are concerned by US president Donald Trump’s strange relationship with the Russian leader too.
Norwegian observers are concerned about the Russian leader – and Trump being ‘too soft’ on him. Pic: AP
Karsten Friis, a Norwegian defence and security analyst, told Sky News: “If he’s too soft on Putin, if he is kind of normalising relations with Russia, I wouldn’t be surprised.
“I would expect Russia to push us, to test us, to push borders, to see what we can do as Europeans.”
Changes in the Arctic mean new challenges for the NATO military alliance – including stepping up activity to deter threats, most of all from Russia.
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In Iceland, we toured a NATO airbase with the foreign secretary.
There, he said maintaining robust presence in the Arctic was essential for western security.
“Let’s be clear, in this challenging geopolitical moment the high north and the Arctic is a heavily contested arena and we should be under no doubt that NATO and the UK need to protect it for our own national security.”
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This is also about distracting Russia, drawing away resources that could have been used in the war in Ukraine and deterring it in the future.
Because the more Arctic opens up, the more this once pristine wilderness is becoming the arena of national rivalry and potentially conflict.
World
‘What did they do to be burned and bombed?’: Charity calls on UK to offer Gaza children life-saving treatment
A British charity has written to the prime minister and foreign secretary, urging them to allow seriously ill children from Gaza into the UK to receive life-saving medical treatment.
Warning: This article contains images readers may find distressing
The co-founder of Project Pure Hope told Sky News it was way past the time for words.
“Now, we need action,” Omar Dinn said.
He’s identified two children inside Gaza who urgently need help and is appealing to the UK government to issue visas as a matter of urgency.
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Britain has taken only two patients from Gaza for medical treatment in 20 months of Israeli bombardment.
Children are among the bulk of the casualties in Gaza
“Most of the people affected by this catastrophe that’s unfolding in Gaza are children,” he continued. “And children are the most vulnerable.
“They have nothing to do with the politics, and we really just need to see them for what they are.
“They are children, just like my children, just like everybody’s children in this country – and we have the ability to help them.”
Sky News has been sent video blogs from British surgeons working in Gaza right now which show the conditions and difficulties they’re working under.
They prepare for potential immediate evacuation whilst facing long lists, mainly of children, needing life-saving emergency treatment day after day.
Dr Victoria Rose is a British surgeon working in southern Gaza’s last remaining hospital
Dr Victoria Rose told us: “Every time I come, I say it’s really bad, but this is on a completely different scale now. It’s mass casualties. It’s utter carnage.
“We are incapable of getting through this volume. We don’t have the personnel. We don’t have the medical supplies. And we really don’t have the facilities.
“We are the last standing hospital in the south of Gaza. We really are on our knees now.”
One of her patients is three-year-old Hatem, who was badly burned when an Israeli airstrike hit the family apartment.
Karam, aged one, has a birth defect that could be easily fixed with surgery
His pregnant mother and father were both killed, leaving him an orphan. He has 35 percent burns on his small body.
“It’s a massive burn for a little guy like this,” Dr Rose says. “He’s so adorable. His eyelids are burnt. His hands are burnt. His feet are burnt.”
Hatem’s grandfather barely leaves his hospital bedside. Hatem Senior told us: “What did these children do wrong to suffer such injuries? To be burned and bombed? We ask God to grant them healing.”
Hatem Senior
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The second child identified by the charity is Karam, who, aged one, is trying to survive in a tent in deeply unhygienic surroundings with a protruding intestine.
He’s suffering from a birth defect called Hirschsprung disease, which could be easily operated on with the right skills and equipment – unavailable to him in Gaza right now.
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Karam, aged one, has a birth defect that could be easily fixed with surgery
Karam’s mother Manal told our Gaza camera crew: “No matter how much I describe how much my son is suffering, I wouldn’t be able to describe it enough. I swear I am constantly crying.”
Children are among the bulk of casualties – some 16,000 have been killed, according to the latest figures from local health officials – and make up the majority of those being operated on, according to the British surgical team on the ground.
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