China is looking to challenge the U.S. in artificial intelligence. China’s tech giants have launched their own AI models.
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China’s race to develop smarter-than-human artificial intelligence may put it ahead of the U.S., but such ground-breaking technology could also risk lessening the stronghold that the ruling Communist Party has over the world’s second-largest economy.
That’s the view of prominent AI scientist Max Tegmark, who told CNBC artificial general intelligence (AGI) is closer than we think and the narrative of a geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China racing to build the smartest AI is a “suicide race.”
While there is no singular definition of AGI, it is broadly taken to refer to AI that can outsmart humans.
Applications like ChatGPT — that allow users to prompt a chatbot for answers — have exploded in popularity. But many AI companies are racing to develop the next level, with AI that has human-level intelligence.
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, has said that AGI could be achieved by 2025. While there are other major names in the tech sector who also think AGI is close, many others think true AGI is still very far away.
As well as competition between technology companies, there is also the geopolitical battle taking place between the U.S. and China for dominance in realms from AI to chips. While this is often portrayed as a race to be first to the latest technology, Tegmark said this is not the right framing.
“I think of this battle, this geopolitical battle to build AGI first as a ‘hopium war’,” Tegmark told CNBC in an interview last month. ” I call it the ‘hopium war’ because it’s fueled by … delusional hope that we can control AGI.”
Tegmark is the president of the Future of Life Institute, a thinktank which penned a letter last year calling for AI labs to pause the development of advanced AI systems. The letter was signed by major tech names including Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Tegmark’s concern is that AI is advancing rapidly with very few guardrails in place, and no way to control it should it begin to outsmart humans.
“We are much closer to building AGI than figuring out how to control it. And that means that the AGI race is not an arms race, it’s a suicide race,” Tegmark said.
Is China worried about AGI?
China has little incentive to build AGI, according to Tegmark. The AI scientist recalled a story in which Elon Musk told him about a “high level meeting” the Tesla boss had with Chinese government officials in early 2023. Musk said to the Chinese government that if AGI is built, China “will not be controlled by the Communist Party, but by the super intelligence,” Tegmark said.
“[Musk] got a very strong reaction. Some of them, really hadn’t thought about that, and with less than a month from that, China came out with their first AI regulations,” Tegmark said, referencing new regulation governing generative AI.
China’s ministry of foreign affairs was not immediately available for comment on the anecdote. CNBC also contacted Tesla for a response from Musk.
“The U.S. doesn’t need to convince China to not build AGI. Even if the U.S. didn’t exist, the Chinese government would have an incentive to not build it because they want to be in control,” Tegmark said.
“[The] last thing they want is to lose that control.”
China’s approach to AI
AI is a strategic priority for the Chinese government. The country’s biggest firms such as Alibaba, Huawei and Tencent have been developing their own AI models. The capabilities of those models are also advancing.
China was also among the first countries in the world to bring in regulation around various aspects of AI. The country’s internet is heavily censored and any information that appears to go against Beijing’s ideology is blocked. OpenAI’s ChatGPT is banned and it is well-noted that chatbots in China won’t answer questions related to politics and topics deemed sensitive by the Communist Party.
The country’s approach to AI is therefore an attempt to push innovation while also balancing its own interests. When it comes to AGI, China is likely to pursue a similar approach, according to analysts.
“I would not count on China to limit its own AI capabilities due to fears that such technologies would threaten Party rule. Similar predictions were made about the internet, they all proved to be false,” Kendra Schaefer, a partner at consultancy Trivium China,” told CNBC.
“China will attempt to dominate AGI while creating a techno-regulatory apparatus that limits what AGI is permitted to do domestically.”
U.S.-China AI battle
Despite Tegmark’s view that the the race to build AGI is a “hopium war,” geopoltiics remains front and center between the U.S. and China when it comes to development of the technology.
“Right now, China is viewing AI through a dual-lens: geopolitical power and domestic growth,” said Abishur Prakash, founder and geopolitical strategist at Toronto-based strategy advisory firm, The Geopolitical Business.
“With AI, China hopes to shift the balance of power around the globe, like creating a new export model. And, in parallel, China wants to power its economy in new ways, from government efficiency to business applications,” Prakash told CNBC.
The U.S. has pursued a policy of attempting to restrict China’s access to key technologies, mainly semiconductors like those designed by Nvidia, that are required to train more advanced AI models. China has responded by attempting to build its homegrown chip industry.
Will the U.S. and China partner on AI rules?
Technologists have warned of some of the risks and dangers when AGI does finally arrive. One theory is that without guardrails, AI will be able to improve itself and design new systems independently.
Tegmark believes that any such risks will be realized by both the U.S. and China, which will force both countries’ governments to individually come up with rules around AI safety.
“So my optimistic path forward is the U.S. and China unilaterally impose national safety standards to prevent their own companies from doing harm and building uncontrollable AGI, not to appease the rivals superpowers, but just to protect themselves,” Tegmark said.
“After that happens though, there’s this really interesting stage where the U.S. and China will be like, wait, how can we guarantee that North Korea doesn’t build AGI or someone else? And then the U.S. and China have an incentive now to push the rest of the world to join them into an AGI moratorium.”
Indeed, governments are already trying to work together to figure out how to create regulations and frameworks around AI. Last year, the U.K. hosted an AI safety summit, which the U.S. and China were both in attendance, to discuss potential guardrails around the technology.
But regulation and rules around AI are currently fragmented. This year, the European Union enacted the AI Act, the first major law globally governing the technology. China has its own set of rules, while many other countries have not yet moved to create any regulation.
Tegmark’s hope of co-ordination around AI safety is echoed by others.
“When the dangers of competition are greater than the rewards, nations will ideally be motivated to come together and mutually self-regulate,” Trivium China’s Schaefer said.
“Indeed, some Chinese policymakers have advocated for getting out ahead of that potential issue and establishing an international governance body under the UN – similar to the International Atomic Energy Agency – so there is desire on Beijing’s side to establish a global governance body,” she said.
An electric air taxi by Joby Aviation flies near the Downtown Manhattan Heliport in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 12, 2023.
Roselle Chen | Reuters
Air taxi maker Joby Aviation in a new lawsuit accused competitor Archer Aviation of using stolen information by a former employee to “one-up” a partnership deal with a real estate developer.
“This is corporate espionage, planned and premeditated,” Joby said in the lawsuit filed Wednesday in a California Superior Court in Santa Cruz, where the company is based.
Archer and Joby did not immediately respond to CNBC’s request for comment.
The lawsuit alleges that former U.S. state and local policy lead, George Kivork, downloaded dozens of files and sent some content to his personal email two days before he resigned in July to take a job at Archer, which had recruited him.
By August, Joby said a partner that worked with Kivork said it had been approached by Archer with a “more lucrative deal.” Joby alleges that the eVTOL rival’s understanding of “highly confidential” details helped it leverage negotiations.
Joby also said the developer attempted to terminate the agreement, citing a breach of confidentiality.
Read more CNBC tech news
Kivork refused to return the files when Joby approached him after conducting an investigation, according to the suit. The company also said Archer denied wrongdoing, and would not disclose how it learned about the terms of the agreement or provide results from an internal investigation it allegedly undertook.
The lawsuit comes during a busy period for electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technology as companies race to gain Federal Aviation Administration certification to start flying commercially. ‘
Joby argued in the complaint that it’s “imperative” to protect Joby’s work “from this type of espionage” to promote the sector’s success and ensure fair competition.
Last week, Joby said it completed its first test flight for a hybrid aircraft it’s working on with defense contractor L3Harris. This month, Amazon-backed Beta Technologies, another electric flight company, also went public on the New York Stock Exchange.
Joby shares have more than doubled over the last year, while Archer is up about 68%.
In August 2023, Archer settled a previous legal dispute with Boeing-owned Wisk Aero over the alleged theft of trade secrets. As part of the deal, Archer agreed to use Wisk as its autonomous tech partner.
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Markets : There was an ugly reversal in the market Thursday. Stocks soared for most of the morning in reaction to Nvidia ‘s strong quarter, bullish outlook on AI spending, and pushback that customers weren’t generating a sufficient return on their investment. Nvidia shares climbed as high as $196 on Thursday — a roughly 5% gain — and its gravitational pull helped lift other technology and AI-adjacent industrial stocks. The market’s gains pushed the S & P 500 into positive territory for the week. However, around 11 a.m. ET, the market began to fall rapidly, with technology and industrial names leading the decline. Nvidia gave up all of its gains and dropped 2%. Bitcoin hit its lowest level since late April. Notable defensive stocks like consumer staples held onto their gains, though. That resilience reinforces our decision to diversify further, which we did earlier this week , by adding Procter & Gamble to the portfolio. The S & P 500’s decline has pushed the index back toward the lows of its recent downturn, marking a roughly 5% pullback from its high. It remains to be seen whether Thursday’s reversal is a sign of investors continuing to retreat from risk assets or simply a retest of the recent downdraft. But Nvidia’s earnings report gave zero indication of a slowdown in demand for AI compute. Interest rate cut: Expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee’s next meeting in December continue to fluctuate. One month ago, a rate cut seemed like a sure thing with a 98.8% probability, according to the CME FedWatch Tool . But the odds dropped to about 50% a week ago after a slew of hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve members. On Wednesday, the odds of a cut plummeted to 30% after the release of the October Fed minutes, which showed that the central bank was hesitant to lower rates again this year. But after the long-delayed September jobs data finally came out Thursday, the probability of a 25-basis-point reduction jumped to 40%. Although the economy added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double the forecasted figure, the unemployment rate ticked higher. The Fed is in a bind, trying to balance a softening labor market against the risk that a rate cut could reignite inflation. Up next: Gap, Ross Stores , Intuit , and Veeva Systems report after the closing bell. BJ’s Wholesale Club will post results Friday morning. On the economic data side, tomorrow we’ll get November’s S & P Global Flash PMI for Manufacturing and Services, along with the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
Bitcoin dropped on Thursday to levels not seen in more than six months, as investors appeared to pull back exposure to riskier assets and weighed the prospects of another Federal Reserve rate cut next month.
The flagship digital currency fell to as low as $86,325.81, its lowest level since April 21. It last traded at $86,690.11.
The release of stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs data raised questions about whether the central bank would lower its benchmark overnight rate. The U.S. economy added 119,000 in September, well above the 50,000 economists polled by Dow Jones expected.
That report sent the probability of a December rate cut to around 40%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Bitcoin’s pullback formed part of a broader cryptocurrency market decline. XRP was last down 2.3% on the day, and is below $2.00, while ether shed more than 3% to trade well below $3,000. Dogecoin was unchanged.
The world’s oldest crypto also led stocks lower, even after a blockbuster Nvidia earnings report. Traders who are heavily invested in AI-related stocks tend to also hold bitcoin, linking the two trades.
Bitcoin’s price has largely slid since a rash of cascading liquidations of highly leveraged crypto positions in early October.