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Business reaction to the budget is the “biggest issue” facing the Bank of England, according to its governor – while he also contemplates the impact of Donald Trump’s looming return to the White House.  

Andrew Bailey told an event the future was clouded by domestic and global “uncertainty”, making it difficult to predict the effect on the UK economy, particularly around inflation.

He was speaking at the Financial Times’ Global Boardroom just a fortnight before the Bank is due to make its next interest rate decision.

The prospects for a third cut this year are grim, with financial markets betting there will be no change.

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All the mood music coming from Mr Bailey and his fellow rate-setters over the past few weeks has been cautionary, with the bulk of public commentary talking of the need for a “gradual” approach.

The Bank is worried by a recent surge in inflation that has taken the rate back above its 2% target.

Forecasts suggest it will keep going up in the coming months, towards 3% from 2.3% currently, amid renewed pressure from energy and services costs.

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Inflation expected to rise, Bank of England says in November

Another headwind is the pace of wage growth which, the Bank fears, will stoke inflation by boosting demand in the economy.

Mr Bailey said it was not yet clear what effect the hike to employer National Insurance contributions, announced in the budget and set to take effect in April, would have.

“I think the biggest issue now in the immediate future is the response to the National Insurance change; how companies balance the mixture of prices, wages, the level of employment, what is taken on margin, is an important judgement for us,” he said.

The budget raised employers’ National Insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points to 15% and also lowered the threshold for when firms start paying to £5,000 from £9,100 per year.

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Businesses have responded by claiming it will hit wage settlements, investment and jobs.

They have also warned that the cost increases will be passed on to customers, potentially stoking inflation.

The retail sector alone says it faces an additional £7bn burden in 2025 from the changes while hospitality expects a £3.5bn hit. Both are major employers.

While weaker pay settlements could help the Bank bring down borrowing costs through interest rate cuts, policymakers will be worried about the threat of higher prices in shops, bars and restaurants.

Mr Bailey said the Bank had laid out a “range of options” analysing the potential economic impact, “some of which would imply greater inflation and some of which would imply less inflation”.

“So there is uncertainty there and we need to see how the evidence evolves,” he said.

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The other global pressure he spoke about was the impact of the Trump presidency from late January.

The governor said the Bank was analysing the possible effects of threatened trade policies on the UK.

Mr Trump has warned of tariffs covering all US imports as part of his agenda to protect US industry and jobs.

Mr Bailey said of such a scenario that it clearly “moves trading prices but it also depends on how other countries react to them, and how exchange rates react to them as well”.

He did not disagree, in an FT interview, that further interest rate cuts could be expected next year.

Financial markets are expecting up to four, barring any further shocks.

Mr Bailey described the process of falling inflation as being “well embedded”.

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Direct cost of Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack which impacted UK economic growth revealed

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Direct cost of Jaguar Land Rover cyber attack which impacted UK economic growth revealed

The cyber attack on Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which halted production for nearly six weeks at its sites, cost the company roughly £200m, it has been revealed.

Latest accounts released on Friday showed “cyber-related costs” were £196m, which does not include the fall in sales.

Profits took a nose dive, falling from nearly £400m (£398m) a year ago to a loss of £485m in the three months to the end of September.

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Revenues dropped nearly 25% and the effects may continue as the manufacturing halt could slow sales in the final three months of the year, executives said.

The impact of the shutdown also hit factories across the car-making supply chain.

Slowing the UK economy

The production pause was a large contributor to a contraction in UK economic growth in September, official figures showed.

Had car output not fallen 28.6%, the UK economy would have grown by 0.1% during the month. Instead, it fell by 0.1%.

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How cyber attack ‘effectively hacked GDP’

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Reacting to JLR’s impact on the GDP contraction, its chief financial officer, Richard Molyneux, said it was “interesting to hear” and it “goes to reinforce” that JLR is really important in the UK economy.

The company, he said, is the “biggest exporter of goods in the entire country” and the effect on GDP “is a reflection of the success JLR has had in past years”.

Recovery

The company said operations were “pretty much back running as normal” and plants were “at or approaching capacity”.

Production of all luxury vehicles resumed.

Investigations are underway into the attack, with law enforcement in “many jurisdictions” involved, the company said.

When asked about the cause of the hack and the hackers, JLR said it was not in a position to answer questions due to the live investigation.

A run of attacks

The manufacturer was just one of a number of major companies to be seriously impacted by cyber criminals in recent months.

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High street retailer Marks and Spencer estimated the cost of its IT outage was roughly £136m. The sum only covers the cost of immediate incident systems response and recovery, as well as specialist legal and professional services support.

The Co-Op and Harrods also suffered service disruption caused by cyber attacks.

Four people were arrested by police investigating the incidents.

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Telegraph future in limbo again as RedBird abandons £500m deal

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Telegraph future in limbo again as RedBird abandons £500m deal

The future ownership of the Daily Telegraph has been plunged back into crisis after RedBird Capital Partners abandoned its proposed £500m takeover.

Sky News has learnt that a consortium led by RedBird and including the UAE-based investor IMI has formally withdrawn its offer to buy the right-leaning newspaper titles.

In a statement issued to Sky News, a RedBird Capital Partners spokesman confirmed: “RedBird has today withdrawn its bid for the Telegraph Media Group.

“We remain fully confident that the Telegraph and its world-class team have a bright future ahead of them and we will work hard to help secure a solution which is in the best interests of employees and readers.”

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The move comes nearly two-and-a-half years after the Telegraph’s future was plunged into doubt when its lenders seized control from the Barclay family, its long-standing proprietors.

RedBird IMI then extended financing which gave it a call option to own the newspapers, but its original proposal was thwarted by objections to foreign state ownership of British national newspapers.

A new deal was then stitched together which included funding from Daily Mail owner Lord Rothermere and Sir Leonard Blavatnik, the billionaire owner of sports streaming platform DAZN.

Under that deal, Abu Dhabi-based IMI would have taken a 15% stake in Telegraph Media Group.

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In recent weeks, RedBird principal Gerry Cardinale had reiterated his desire to own the titles despite apparently having been angered by reporting by Telegraph journalists which explored links between RedBird and Chinese state influences.

Unrest from the Telegraph newsroom is said to have been one of the main factors in RedBird’s decision to withdraw its offer.

The collapse of the deal means a further auction of the titles is now likely to take place in the new year.

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Budget 2025: Starmer and Reeves ditch plans to raise income tax

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Budget 2025: Starmer and Reeves ditch plans to raise income tax

Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves have scrapped plans to break their manifesto pledge and raise income tax rates in a massive U-turn less than two weeks from the budget.

The decision, first reported in the Financial Times, comes after a bruising few days which has brought about a change of heart in Downing Street.

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I understand Downing Street has backed down amid fears about the backlash from disgruntled MPs and voters.

The Treasury and Number 10 declined to comment.

The decision is a massive about-turn. In a news conference last week, the chancellor appeared to pave the way for manifesto-breaking tax rises in the budget on 26 November.

She spoke of difficult choices and insisted she could neither increase borrowing nor cut spending in order to stabilise the economy, telling the public “everyone has to play their part”.

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‘Aren’t you making a mockery of voters?’

The decision to backtrack was communicated to the Office for Budget Responsibility on Wednesday in a submission of “major measures”, according to the Financial Times.

The chancellor will now have to fill an estimated £30bn black hole with a series of narrower tax-raising measures and is also expected to freeze income tax thresholds for another two years beyond 2028, which should raise about £8bn.

Tory shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith said: “We’ve had the longest ever run-up to a budget, damaging the economy with uncertainty, and yet – with just days to go – it is clear there is chaos in No 10 and No 11.”

How did we get here?

For weeks, the government has been working up options to break the manifesto pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance or VAT on working people.

I was told only this week the option being worked up was to do a combination of tax rises and action on the two-child benefit cap in order for the prime minister to be able to argue that in breaking his manifesto pledges, he is trying his hardest to protect the poorest in society and those “working people” he has spoken of so endlessly.

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Ed Conway on the chancellor’s options

But days ago, officials and ministers were working on a proposal to lift the basic rate of income tax – perhaps by 2p – and then simultaneously cut national insurance contributions for those on the basic rate of income tax (those who earn up to £50,000 a year).

That way the chancellor can raise several billion in tax from those with the “broadest shoulders” – higher-rate taxpayers and pensioners or landlords, while also trying to protect “working people” earning salaries under £50,000 a year.

The chancellor was also going to take action on the two-child benefit cap in response to growing demand from the party to take action on child poverty. It is unclear whether those plans will now be shelved given the U-turn on income tax.

A rough week for the PM

The change of plan comes after the prime minister found himself engulfed in a leadership crisis after his allies warned rivals that he would fight any attempted post-budget coup.

It triggered a briefing war between Wes Streeting and anonymous Starmer allies attacking the health secretary as the chief traitor.

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The prime minister has since apologised to Mr Streeting, who I am told does not want to press for sackings in No 10 in the wake of the briefings against him.

But the saga has further damaged Sir Keir and increased concerns among MPs about his suitability to lead Labour into the next general election.

Insiders clearly concluded that the ill mood in the party, coupled with the recent hits to the PM’s political capital, makes manifesto-breaking tax rises simply too risky right now.

But it also adds to a sense of chaos, given the chancellor publicly pitch-rolled tax rises in last week’s news conference.

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