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Business reaction to the budget is the “biggest issue” facing the Bank of England, according to its governor – while he also contemplates the impact of Donald Trump’s looming return to the White House.  

Andrew Bailey told an event the future was clouded by domestic and global “uncertainty”, making it difficult to predict the effect on the UK economy, particularly around inflation.

He was speaking at the Financial Times’ Global Boardroom just a fortnight before the Bank is due to make its next interest rate decision.

The prospects for a third cut this year are grim, with financial markets betting there will be no change.

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All the mood music coming from Mr Bailey and his fellow rate-setters over the past few weeks has been cautionary, with the bulk of public commentary talking of the need for a “gradual” approach.

The Bank is worried by a recent surge in inflation that has taken the rate back above its 2% target.

Forecasts suggest it will keep going up in the coming months, towards 3% from 2.3% currently, amid renewed pressure from energy and services costs.

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Another headwind is the pace of wage growth which, the Bank fears, will stoke inflation by boosting demand in the economy.

Mr Bailey said it was not yet clear what effect the hike to employer National Insurance contributions, announced in the budget and set to take effect in April, would have.

“I think the biggest issue now in the immediate future is the response to the National Insurance change; how companies balance the mixture of prices, wages, the level of employment, what is taken on margin, is an important judgement for us,” he said.

The budget raised employers’ National Insurance contributions by 1.2 percentage points to 15% and also lowered the threshold for when firms start paying to £5,000 from £9,100 per year.

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Businesses have responded by claiming it will hit wage settlements, investment and jobs.

They have also warned that the cost increases will be passed on to customers, potentially stoking inflation.

The retail sector alone says it faces an additional £7bn burden in 2025 from the changes while hospitality expects a £3.5bn hit. Both are major employers.

While weaker pay settlements could help the Bank bring down borrowing costs through interest rate cuts, policymakers will be worried about the threat of higher prices in shops, bars and restaurants.

Mr Bailey said the Bank had laid out a “range of options” analysing the potential economic impact, “some of which would imply greater inflation and some of which would imply less inflation”.

“So there is uncertainty there and we need to see how the evidence evolves,” he said.

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The other global pressure he spoke about was the impact of the Trump presidency from late January.

The governor said the Bank was analysing the possible effects of threatened trade policies on the UK.

Mr Trump has warned of tariffs covering all US imports as part of his agenda to protect US industry and jobs.

Mr Bailey said of such a scenario that it clearly “moves trading prices but it also depends on how other countries react to them, and how exchange rates react to them as well”.

He did not disagree, in an FT interview, that further interest rate cuts could be expected next year.

Financial markets are expecting up to four, barring any further shocks.

Mr Bailey described the process of falling inflation as being “well embedded”.

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Sainsburys profits top £1bn after closing all cafes and cutting 3,000 jobs

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Sainsburys profits top £1bn after closing all cafes and cutting 3,000 jobs

Annual profits at the UK’s second biggest supermarket, Sainsbury’s, have reached £1bn.

The supermarket chain reported that sales and profits grew over the year to March.

It also comes after Sainsbury’s announced in January plans to close of all of its in-store cafes and the loss of 3,000 jobs.

But the high profits are not expected to increase, according to Sainsbury’s, which warned of heightened competition as a supermarket price war heats up.

Tesco too warned of “intensification of competition” last week, as Asda’s executive chairman earlier this year committed to foregoing profits in favour of price cuts.

Sainsbury’s said it had spent £1bn lowering prices, leading to a “record-breaking year in grocery”, its highest market share gain in more than a decade, as more people chose Sainsbury’s for their main shop.

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It’s the second most popular supermarket with market share of ahead of Asda but below Tesco, according to latest industry figures from market research company Kantar.

In the same year, the supermarket announced plans to cut more than 3,000 jobs and the closure of its remaining 61 in-store cafes as well as hot food, patisserie, and pizza counters, to save money in a “challenging cost environment”.

This financial year, profits are forecast to be around £1bn again, in line with the £1.036bn in retail underlying operating profit announced today for the year ended in March.

The grocer has been a vocal critic of the government’s increase in employer national insurance contributions and said in January it would incur an additional £140m as a result of the hike.

Higher national insurance bills are not captured by the annual results published on Thursday, as they only took effect in April, outside of the 2024 to 2025 financial year.

Supermarkets gearing up for a price war and not bulking profits further could be good news for prices of shelves, according to online investment planner AJ Bell’s investment director Russ Mould.

“The main winners in a price war would ultimately be shoppers”, he said.

“Like Tesco, Sainsbury’s wants to equip itself to protect its competitive position, hence its guidance for flat profit in the coming year as it looks to offer customers value for money.”

There has been, however, a warning from Sainsbury’s that higher national insurance contributions will bring costs up for consumers.

News shops are planned in “key target locations”, Sainsbury’s results said, which, along with further openings, “provides a unique opportunity to drive further market share gains”.

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US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn new restrictions on China exports

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US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn new restrictions on China exports

US stock markets suffered more significant losses on Wednesday, with stocks in leading AI chipmakers slumping after firms said new restrictions on exports to China would cost them billions.

Nvidia fell 6.87% – and was at one point down 10% – after revealing it would now need a US government licence to sell its H20 chip.

Rival chipmaker AMD slumped 7.35% after it predicted a $800m (£604m) charge due to its MI308 also needing a licence.

Dutch firm ASML, which makes hardware essential to chip manufacturing, fell more than 5% after it missed order expectations and said US tariffs created uncertainty.

The losses filtered into the tech-dominated Nasdaq index, which recovered slightly to end 3% down, while the larger S&P 500 fell 2.2%.

A board above the trading floor of the New York Stock Exchange, shows the closing number for the Dow Jones industrial average Wednesday, April 16, 2025. (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
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Pic: AP

Such losses would have been among the worst in years were it not for the turmoil over recent weeks.

It comes as China remains the focus of Donald Trump’s tariff regime, with both countries imposing tit-for-tat charges of over 100% on imports.

The US commerce department said in a statement it was “committed to acting on the president’s directive to safeguard our national and economic security”.

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Nvidia’s bespoke China chip is already deliberately less powerful than products sold elsewhere after intervention from the previous Biden administration.

However, the Trump government is worried the H20 and others could still be used to build a supercomputer in China, threatening national security and US dominance in AI.

Nvidia said the move would cost it around $5.5bn (£4.1bn) and the licensing requirement would be in place for the “indefinite future”.

Nvidia’s recently announced a $500bn (£378bn) investment to build infrastructure in America – something Mr Trump heralded as a victory in his mission to boost US manufacturing.

However, it appears to have been too little to stave off the new restrictions.

Pressure has also come from the Democrats, with senator Elizabeth Warren writing to the commerce secretary and urging him to limit chip sales to China.

Meanwhile, the head of US central bank also warned on Wednesday that US tariffs could slow the economy and raise inflation more than expected.

Jerome Powell said the bank would need more time to decide on lowering interest rates.

“The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated,” he said.

“The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”

Predictions of a recession in the US have risen significantly since the president revealed details of the import taxes a few weeks ago.

However, he subsequently paused the higher rates for 90 days to allow for negotiations.

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

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Inflation surprisingly continues to fall but expect an April rebound due to across-the-board bill hikes

Inflation fell more than expected and for the second month in a row, official figures show.

The consumer price index (CPI) measure of inflation fell to 2.6% in March, down from 2.8% in February and 3% in January, according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data.

It means prices are rising at the slowest pace since December and closest to the Bank of England’s 2% target.

 

The rate is also lower than expected by economists polled by Reuters, who anticipated inflation of 2.7%.

But the drop is likely to be short-lived as a raft of bill rises kicked in at the start of April.

Energy, water, and council tax bills rose throughout the UK at the start of this month.

Why did inflation fall?

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It was a fall in fuel costs, thanks to lower oil prices that led to the surprise drop, combined with the unchanged food price rise.

The price of games, toys and hobbies, as well as data processing equipment, all fell.

These drops counteracted a “strong” rise in the price of clothes, the ONS said.

The late timing of Easter also meant comparing March 2024 – as the ONS does with its annual inflation rise figure – with March 2025 isn’t comparing like with like.

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Easter and the associated school break bring things like higher airfares and hotel costs, something that was not seen last month as the feast takes place in April this year.

What does this mean for interest rates?

All measures of inflation fell, in a boost to the Bank of England as they mull interest rate cuts.

A key way of assessing price rises, core inflation, which excludes volatile price items like fuel and food, dropped to 3.4%.

It’s closely watched by the rate setters at the Bank of England, who meet next month and are widely expected to make borrowing less expensive by bringing interest rates down to 4.25%.

Another important measure – services inflation – dropped to 4.7% from 5% in February. As a predominantly services-based economy, a drop in that rate is good news for central bankers and households.

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Inflation data, combined with the fact job vacancies are at pre-pandemic levels for the first time since 2021, has meant traders are now expecting four interest rate cuts this year, which would bring the base interest rate to 3.5% by December.

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