A film set location, a big budget production, an audience bussed in – the prime minister’s Plan for Change speech had all the hallmarks of big campaign moments past when Sir Keir Starmer used the event to launch his “first steps’ set of promises – from cutting NHS waiting lists and setting up a new border command to tackle small boats – and his election-winning manifesto.
Thursday was an attempt to change that with six measurable milestones now set up so you, Whitehall and the cabinet, are all crystal clear about where they are heading.
Some of them are a departure from manifesto pledges, others are not.
Some of them are genuinely ambitious, others less so.
The manifesto promise to have the fastest growing economy in the G7 is now an “aim” while the new milestone is to “raise living standards in every part of the United Kingdom, so working people have more money in their pockets” is a new target.
The idea is to make the pledge more “human” but the PM wouldn’t say how much he wanted to raise living standards – and household disposable income is already set to rise by the end of this parliament.
Then on opportunity for all, in the run-up to the election the government promised to recruit 6,500 more teachers to improve teaching in state secondaries.
Now the milestone they are asking to be measured on is a promise that 75% of five-year-olds are ready to learn in England when they start school against 67% today.
There is a new milestone to fast-track planning decisions on at least 150 major economic infrastructure projects.
There is a milestone to put a named bobby back on the beat in every neighbourhood, while the pledge to halve violence against women and girls has not been marked up as a milestone.
‘Hold the government’s feet to the fire’
Why are they doing it now and to what end?
At its heart this is an attempt to give voters clear targets on which they can, to quote Starmer himself, “hold the government’s feet to the fire”.
But it felt a bit like a rag bag of measures in which some past promises were pushed aside and others pumped up.
The 1.5 million housing target, the pledge to return to the NHS standard of 92% of patients being seen for elective treatment in 18 weeks, the commitment to green power by 2030 are all ambitious.
But things that are perhaps too risky or hard to meet have been dropped.
The migration question
One of the biggest omissions in the milestones was migration.
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2:07
Where’s immigration in PM’s milestones?
This surprised me, not least because the prime minister had said clearly that the economy and borders were his two main priorities in government and a clear concern for voters.
But instead of making it one of his milestone measures, for which the public can hold him accountable, the PM said securing borders was one of the “foundations” of his government.
There is no metric on which to measure him beyond net migration coming down from record levels of 800,000 plus in the past couple of years.
Perhaps he could have been more ambitious in setting a target to hit in terms of cutting legal migration or small boat crossings.
Perhaps he could have committed to a deportation figure – something that Harriet Harman suggested he might have done on our episode of Electoral Dysfunction this week.
But I suspect, in the end, Number 10 decided it was too risky to try to set targets.
‘The tepid bath of managed decline’
But with a disaffected electorate, high levels of scepticism, and a Reform party playing into that anti-politics sentiment, Starmer knows he must galvanise his government to try to deliver tangibles before the next election, and this speech will perhaps be looked back on as one aimed as much at Whitehall as it was you, the voter.
He explicitly challenged the British state to deliver in this speech saying his Plan for Change was “the most ambitious plan for government in a generation” and would require a “change to the nature of governing itself” as he called on the state to become more dynamic, decisive, innovate, embracing of technology and artificial intelligence.
“Make no mistake, this plan will land on desks across Whitehall with the heavy thud of a gauntlet being thrown down, a demand given the urgency of our times,” he told his audience as he fired a warning shot to Whitehall.
“I do think there are too many people in Whitehall who are comfortable in the tepid bath of managed decline. Had forgotten, to paraphrase JFK, that you choose change not because it’s easy, but because it’s hard.”
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Starmer and his team know that without galvanising Whitehall and setting clear navigation through this mission and now measurable milestones, delivery will be hard.
The plan is for stock takes on the missions and milestones in order to hold mandarins accountable.
On the back of Starmer’s milestones speech will come another from cabinet minister Pat McFadden on civil service reform.
At the election, Starmer ran on a platform of promising change.
Five months later, eyeing a sharp fall in opinion poll ratings, he is offering a concrete plan for change.
For now voters seemed tuned out, with the pledges and targets being thrown at them failing to stick.
I don’t think Starmer or his team expect those polls to turn around any time soon.
But they are adamant that if they can fulfil promises to build more homes and better infrastructure, cut NHS waiting lists, lift living standards, and give people a sense of greater security on their streets, they can turn the tide on the tsunami of cynicism they face.
Starmer might not be the best storyteller, but in the end he’ll likely be judged not on the flourish or rhetoric, but on whether he can actually deliver.
Reform UK now has more members than the Conservative Party and is “the real opposition” according to Nigel Farage, while Kemi Badenoch has called his numbers “fake”.
According to a digital counter on the party’s website, Reform UK had gone past 131,690 members – the amount the Conservative Party declared before its leadership election in the autumn – just before midday on Boxing Day.
Mr Farage, party leader and MP for Clacton-on-Sea, hailed the “historic moment” and said on X: “The youngest political party in British politics has just overtaken the oldest political party in the world. Reform UK are now the real opposition.”
But Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch accused the party of issuing misleading figures: “Manipulating your own supporters at Xmas eh, Nigel?. It’s not real. It’s a fake… [the website has been] coded to tick up automatically.”
Posting on X, she added that the Tories had “gained thousands of new members since the leadership election”.
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Reform UK also shared a video of the membership tracker being projected on to the Conservative Party headquarters in London overnight.
Zia Yusuf, party chairman, also said “history has been made today” and that the Tories’ “centuries-long stranglehold on the centre-right of British politics” has “finally been broken”.
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Mr Farage hit back at Ms Badenoch, who strongly contested Reform UK’s figures. He claimed to have proof and posted a screenshot of an online register reportedly showing ‘active memberships’.
“We understand you are bitter, upset and angry that we are now the second biggest party in British politics, and that the Conservative brand is dying under your leadership. However, this not an excuse to accuse us of committing fraud,” he wrote on X.
Mr Yusuf added to the debate by appearing to goad Ms Badenoch about an audit: “We will gladly invite a Big 4 audit firm to verify our membership numbers on the basis that you do the same.”
The Conservative party membership figure – shared after Kemi Badenoch was announced as the new leader on 2 November – was the lowest on record and a drop from the 2022 leadership contest, when there were around 172,000 members.
In response, a Conservative Party spokesman said: “Reform has delivered a Labour Government that has cruelly cut winter fuel payments for 10 million pensioners, put the future of family farming and food security at risk, and launched a devastating raid on jobs which will leave working people paying the price.
“A vote for Reform this coming May is a vote for a Labour council – only the Conservatives can stop this.”
According to research from the House of Commons Library, there is no uniformly recognised definition of party membership and no established method or body to monitor the number of members each political group has.
Reform UK was also originally set up as a limited company, but Mr Farage said he would change the party’s structure to be member-owned in September.