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Nikola stock sinks to a 52-week low, a NHTSA complaint claiming the fuel cell shuts down unpredictably, and one of hydrogen’s early adopters remains unconvinced. Is it time for Nikola to throw in the towel on hydrogen?

William Hall’s Coyote Container company made headlines earlier this year, when it became the first company to successfully complete a 400-mile delivery in a Nikola Tre semi truck powered by a hydrogen fuel cell.

Hall, Managing Member and Founder of Coyote Container, drove the hydrogen Nikola over the hilly, 400-mile route that took the truck and its 17.7 ton trailer through California’s Altamont Pass and Grapevine Canyon on the I-5 interstate between the Port of Oakland and the Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach. The trip seemed like a ringing endorsement for the hydrogen-powered trucks. Nearly a year later, though, William seems to have soured on the early adopter experience, specifically citing higher-than-anticipated operating costs, fuel costs, weight limitations, and warranty concerns.

Coyote Container’s Nikola

Coyote Container completes historic trip in fuel cell truck
Image via Coyote Container.

“The truck costs five to ten times that of a standard Class 8 drayage [truck],” Hall told Clean Trucking. “On top of that, you pay five to ten times the Federal Excise Tax (FET) and local sales tax, [which comes to] roughly 22%. If you add the 10% reserve not covered by any voucher program, you are at 32%. Thirty-two percent of $500,000 is $160,000 for the trucker to somehow pay [out of pocket].”

Coyote Container isn’t alone in expressing concerns about the practicality of hydrogen trucks in general, but there are concerns about Nikola’s hydrogen semi truck, in particular.

In an official NHTSA complaint made against one Nikola HFCEV, the truck experienced five roadside propulsion outages resulting in three towings and two instances where the truck had to limp home on battery power. The failure was unpredictable, cutting off power while the vehicle showed between 20 and 140 miles left of FC range.

The first such incident happened with about 900 miles on the truck’s odometer, while the most recent occurred at 28,340 miles. You can read more about the Nikola NHTSA complaint, below – or just read Hall’s summary of the situation, in his own words: I have dealt with more tow trucks in the last 10 months than in my entire 62 years on this Earth.

NHTSA ID Nu. 11621826

Screencap; via NHTSA.

While no recall has been issued for the above issue yet, the company has been no stranger to recalls in the past, and may be sensitive about issuing another one as its stock reaches a new 52-week low (more on that in a minute).

Regardless, the company issued a technical service bulletin (TSB) on October 29th, just 13 days after the official NHTSA complaint was filed.

The TSB itself mentions that, “a coolant fitting may come loose due to excess tension on a coolant line. Extension of the hose returns the tension to an appropriate level,” but while it’s unclear whether or not the TSB is intended to address the propulsion system, what is clear is that the TSB impacts VINs 001-266 – effectively all of the Nikola hydrogen semis currently on the road (as of September 30, Nikola reported selling 235 hydrogen semis).

And as for what it costs to fill up one of those 266 hydrogen semis? Hall says it’s impossible to tell. “No one will tell you what the H2 fuel costs,” he said. “This is because it’s being subsidized by the truck manufacturers by artificially raising truck pricing. This is a severe market distortion.”

Hall also said the added weight of the truck’s hydrogen system, compared to a conventional semi, was also hurting his ability to operate the trucks. “A Nikola Tre FCEV weighs 27,000 pounds versus my heaviest [diesel] sleeper weighing 19,400 pounds,” he told Clean Trucking, in that same interview. “Most drayage trucks weigh between 16,000 to 18,000 pounds. Shippers max out cargo whenever they can, so I have to constantly switch to a diesel in order to be road legal.”

A higher GVWR rating for ZEV trucks, especially on drayage facilities and on off-highway routes with lower relative speeds, could help mitigate that issue without adding excessive risk at highway speeds.

That won’t happen overnight, however, and Hall is losing patience.

The Coyote Container founder took to LinkedIn to vent. There, he shared some thoughts on a Seeking Alpha article calling Nikola a, “strong sell.” Hall wrote, “I have experienced an amazing amount of warranty repair down time in the last 14 weeks only making five of my weekly trips from Oakland to Long Beach. Dealing with battery failures and fuel cell shutdowns.”

Dave Baiocchi, General Manager of ETHERO Truck + Energy (the selling dealer), chose to respond to Hall publicly, writing in defense of Nikola, “I think it’s fair to say that as an extremely early adopter of this technology, and with one of the first units off the assembly line this truck has served you well.”

Nikola recently celebrated the production of its 300th hydrogen semi truck at the company’s Coolidge, Arizona facility. Nikola’s third-quarter net revenue reached $25.2 million, falling short of Wall Street estimates of $37.2 million. The miss was blamed on the unexpected costs associated with the repurchasing of 20 battery-electric Nikola Tre trucks in October.

Electrek’s Take

Nikola-CEO-Q2
Nikola Tre; via Nikola.

Despite what might be perceived as the negative tone of this article, I want Nikola to succeed. I want to see a new American truck company figure out a way to succeed, and a way to continue to grow. That said, having proxy arguments with your customers about very real, very concerning issues on social media – and through your dealers – isn’t the way to do that.

We (I) reached out to Nikola staff through both email and LinkedIn on Tuesday regarding these facts and other (as yet) unsubstantiated rumors about its 2025 FCHEV production plans, but received no response as of EOD, Friday, when this story went live.

SOURCES | IMAGES: Fuel Cell Works, NHTSA, Clean Trucking, Investing, Electric-Vehicles.com, Seeking Alpha, and Coyote Container, via William Hall (links throughout the article).

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Tesla extends its ‘one-time’ FSD transfer scheme once again, will ‘play it by ear’

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Tesla extends its 'one-time' FSD transfer scheme once again, will 'play it by ear'

Tesla will continue to extend its “one-time” FSD transfer scheme for at least another quarter, according to CEO Elon Musk at today’s Tesla shareholder meeting.

Tesla’s shareholder meeting is underway, and the big headline is that shareholders have enthusiastically voted against their own interests, diluting their own voting rights and handing more control of the company to the one person on Earth currently negatively affecting its business the most, CEO Elon Musk.

At the end of the meeting, Tesla hosted a Q&A session with shareholders in attendance, and one of them asked a question we’ve heard before: whether Tesla owners who purchased Tesla’s Full Self-Driving software, which still has not been delivered despite the first purchases happening almost a decade ago at this point, would be able to transfer the licenses to that undelivered software if they choose to buy a new Tesla vehicle.

So far, Tesla’s official policy has been that owners must purchase FSD with each new vehicle they buy, and can’t transfer the licenses between them. However, it did offer a “one-time” exception to that rule for a two month period in 2023. After that, Tesla owners would never be allowed to transfer their FSD license again.

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Well, except for the next time that Tesla allowed it. Then the next time. Then Tesla saying no, it won’t come back. Then it came back.

And now, it’s still active, having started in April.

So, the question was perhaps a little out of date. The program hasn’t just been active for a single quarter this time, but for the last half-year. There is no listed end date on Tesla’s website.

Nevertheless, Musk answered the question thusly:

We have done that a few times. I guess we could extend it again. Alright, we’ll extend it for at least another quarter, and then play it by ear after that.

This in fact seems like a limitation as compared to the current status of the program, since it is active with no end date at the moment. Musk mentioning that it might only last for another quarter suggests it may end earlier than Tesla’s website language currently suggests.

However, it’s been apparent all along that this is more of a way to stoke demand, hoping to get current owners to purchase FSD on new cars, so Tesla can hold on to the up to $15,000 it charged those owners for undelivered software.

Musk has continually stated, for more than a decade, that FSD is right around the corner. Consumers were led to believe that their FSD systems would be active soon, with Musk often stating it would be released by “next year.” Musk said that owners would be able to make money by running a robotaxi service, and that their cars would be “appreciating assets” because of it – and now Tesla is making revenue like that, but you can’t.

The years have come and went, and many cars are either out of service, getting old and reaching time for replacement, or owners have been scared away by Musk’s disgusting and high-profile political actions which have included sympathizing with Nazis.

Those owners who have moved on will seemingly never get back their investment into the false promises that Musk advanced, but it only makes sense that owners who do want to retain their license and move it to a new vehicle should be able to do so. Tesla sold software, the software still isn’t working, and people should be able to enjoy that software for a reasonable amount of time if they bought it.

And yet, Tesla continues jerking its most loyal owners around, those who have held strong through the incredible brand damage Musk is doing, and suggesting that the right thing to do is only available as a limited opportunity – trying to nickel and dime the most loyal owners into buying new cars earlier than they would have planned, with the specter of having to re-purchase FSD if they didn’t do so.

That said, there are several current cases in court covering the issue of Tesla’s false advertising regarding FSD. So this issue might be solved for the company by outside forces eventually anyway. But it would have been better if Tesla just did the right thing to begin with – which it continually resists doing.


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Tesla delays ‘flying’ Roadster demo to April Fools’ Day, production to 2027/28

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Tesla delays 'flying' Roadster demo to April Fools' Day, production to 2027/28

Tesla CEO Elon Musk pushed back the dates for a demo of the next-gen Tesla Roadster, which he has said will be able to “fly” and suggested that it might not even be a car at all.

Tesla has been teasing the existence of a future, high-performance sportscar model for years now. Originally it was unveiled in 2017 for a 2020 release, but has been repeatedly pushed back, with another delay today.

Just last week, Musk said that a demo was coming at the end of the year of the Roadster, and that it would be perhaps the most exciting demo of any product ever. Musk also stated that the Roadster will have more tech than all James Bond vehicles combined

Today, he was asked a question at Tesla’s shareholder meeting about the status of that project (including whether the “James Bond” tech would make it to other Teslas – to which Musk responded “um, no”). Here’s the full answer regarding the product’s unveiling:

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The product unveil of the Roadster 2, which will be very different than what we’ve shown previously, that demo event will be April 1 of next year. I have some deniability because I can say I was just kidding. But we are actually tentatively aiming for April 1, for what I think will be the most exciting, whether it works or not, demo of any product. And then I guess production is probably about 12-18 months after that. I think production is about a year or so after that.

When the questioner seemed to respond with disbelief with that answer (who ever thought that this car could ever possibly be delayed?!), Musk answered:

Well, I can’t give away secrets, but you won’t be disappointed.

Musk also said, during the meeting, that owners of Founders’ Series reservations, which represent a $250,000 loan given to Tesla for the last 8 years, would all be invited to the demo.

This new timeline represents yet another delay for the oftdelayed vehicle. The most recent official announcement suggested it would go into production this year, though Musk has waffled on that.

So, this official announcement puts us back to a timeline of April 1 for the reveal, which is a delay of at least 3 months from when it was supposed to occur as of last week, and production starting (not cars hitting the road) at least in April 2027, or at late as potentially October 2027. If we take the higher end of that range, then the Roadster is likely to only be available in 2028, 11 years after its first unveiling and 8 years after original estimates.

That said, it’s not much of a surprise that the Roadster would be delayed again. Just last week, we saw a new job listing for the Roadster, looking for a “concept development” engineer. That’s a fairly early part of the production process, and even makes it seem like a 2027 release could be optimistic.

In the interim, several other high-performance electric cars have appeared to give the “hard-core smack down” to gas-powered cars that Musk promised.

We’ve seen records set by the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra, built by a smartphone company from concept to production in just a couple years. We’ve seen the Rimac Nevera R get to 186mph faster than a Bugatti Chiron Super Sport. We’ve seen the Lotus Evija X, which set the third-fastest Nurburgring lap ever, only beaten by two one-off, track-only, purpose-built racecars (one of which is a hybrid, the other is electric). And we’ve seen the BYD Yangwang U9 Xtreme become the fastest production car ever at 308(!!!) miles per hour.

These are milestones that the Roadster might have been able to take a shot at, but time has passed it by, and others have stepped in in the Roadster’s absence.

But maybe that doesn’t matter, because Musk’s comments today suggest the Roadster might not be what we expected.

All along, it has been assumed that the Roadster will be something like the original version unveiled in 2017. But today, Musk said it will be “very different than what we’ve shown previously.” We don’t know what those differences entail – whether it just means the car will have new tech, or if it will be a completely different style of car.

We can imagine that anyone who gave Tesla a $250,000 loan for ten years might be bothered by ending up with a totally different bill of goods than they put their money down for, though, so we hope the plan is to at least keep it a sportscar.

There are some questions about whether these technologies Musk has mentioned will be on the car, though, and if they will be helpful for anything other than a demo if so.

Recently, Tesla patented a “fan car” system which would enhance grip. It’s actually a pretty cool patent, with interesting improvements over previous implementations of the same idea.

But it is decidedly not a “flying car.” In fact, being able to fly would not actually help sportscar performance, and would actually hurt it. Sportscars are typically looking to maximize downforce in the most efficient manner, in order to enhance grip, but to fly, one must create “upforce,” which isn’t a term anyone uses because it creates no actual performance benefit.

So, while it is highly expected that the Roadster demo might be able to “fly,” we hope that doesn’t make it to production on a sportscar, as that’s more of a parlor trick and would take performance benefits away from where they would be more useful – like having a fan car system, or directional jets to increase lateral acceleration, rather than useless upwards acceleration.


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Elon Musk says Tesla FSD will allow ‘texting and driving’ in ‘a month or two’

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Tesla extends its 'one-time' FSD transfer scheme once again, will 'play it by ear'

Elon Musk announced today that Tesla will enable its electric vehicle owners with (Supervised) Full Self-Driving (FSD) to “text and drive” in “a month or two,” without explaining how they will get around the clear laws that prohibit that.

As recently as a few months ago, Musk was again claiming that Tesla would finally deliver its long-promised “unsupervised self-driving” to consumer vehicles by the end of the year – something he has done every year for the last 6 years and never delivered.

The latest timeline is less than 2 months away.

At Tesla’s shareholders meeting today, Musk updated his timeline – now saying Tesla is a “few months away” from unsupervised FSD – potentially pushing it into 2026.

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He also added that Tesla is “almost” ready to allow “texting and driving’ on FSD and said he expects Tesla to enable it within “a month or two.”

However, the CEO didn’t elaborate on how Tesla plans to enable that.

Texting and driving is illegal in most jurisdictions, including the US. There are significant fines and legal penalties if caught. To “allow that”, Tesla would need to take responsibility for the consumer vehicles when FSD is driving, which would mean the previously promised “unsupervised self-driving” or SAE levels 3 to 5 autonomous driving.

There are several legal and regulatory steps Tesla must take to make it happen, and so far, there’s no evidence that the automaker has embarked on that journey.

So far, Tesla has limited itself to pilot projects with internal fleets to offer ride-hailing services with in-car supervisors where regulations allow.

Musk said that Tesla will “look at the data” before allowing texting and driving.

Tesla has notoriously never released any relevant data regarding the safety of its autonomous driving features.

The automaker does release a quarterly “Autopilot safety report”, which consists of Tesla releasing the miles driven between crashes for Tesla vehicles with Autopilot features turned on, and comparing that with the miles driven by vehicles with Autopilot technology with the features not turned on, as well as the US average mileage between crashes.

There are three major problems with these reports:

  • Methodology is self‑reported. Tesla counts only crashes that trigger an airbag or restraint; minor bumps are excluded, and raw crash counts or VMT are not disclosed.
  • Road type bias. Autopilot is mainly used on limited‑access highways—already the safest roads—while the federal baseline blends all road classes. Meaning there are more crashes per mile on city streets than highways.
  • Driver mix & fleet age. Tesla drivers skew newer‑vehicle, higher‑income, and tech‑enthusiast; these demographics typically crash less.

For the first time today, Tesla appears to have separated the Autopilot and FSD mileage, which gives us a little more data, but it still has many of the same problems listed above:

The main issue is that this data doesn’t prove that FSD crashes once every 4.92 million miles, but that human plus FSD crashes every 4.92 million miles based on Tesla’s own definition of a crash.

In comparison, we have official data from Tesla’s Robotaxi program in Austin, which is supposedly more advanced than FSD, showing a crash every 62,500 miles. That’s also with a safety supervisor on board, preventing more crashes.

Electrek’s Take

Another false promise and false hope to keep Tesla owners and shareholders going for a few more months.

You can’t just “allow texting and driving”. Laws are preventing that. Musk must mean Tesla officially making FSD a level 3 to 4 autonomous driving system and taking responsibility for it when active.

So far, in the US, only Mercedes-Benz has that capacity for stretches of highways in California and Nevada under SAE level 3 autonomy.

I feel like there are so many things that need to happen before that.

First off, logically, Tesla removing its in-car supervisors in its robotaxi service in Austin should come way sooner. Then, it should be able to demonstrate that they don’t crash every few tens of thousands of miles, which is the case right now with supervisors preventing further crashes.

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