The fall of Assad in Syria creates a security vacuum – and may give Donald Trump little choice but to play a role

Published

7 months ago

December 8, 2024

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The lightning collapse of Bashar al Assad’s regime in Syria exposes the brittleness of even the most brutal dictatorship when under pressure, but it also creates a security vacuum that carries great risk.

Once the scenes of rebel euphoria subside on the streets, much will rest on the powerful group, Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), which led the charge into Damascus overnight.

Previously linked to al Qaeda, this Sunni Islamist militant faction is viewed as a terrorist organisation by many Western powers, including the UK.

But the movement has sought to distance itself from its extremist roots and instead emphasise a commitment to tolerance of minorities.

Read more: Latest updates from Syria

Now, having achieved such stunning success over the past few days, its leader Abu Mohammed al Jolani faces the even bigger task of uniting a country that has been divided by civil war for more than 13 years.

The Assad regime, which comes from Syria’s minority Alawite sect of Shia Islam, inflicted terrible violence on its people, in particular during the first years of the uprising that began in 2011 – and including the use of chemical weapons.

Bringing those responsible to justice without resorting to violent retribution will be a key, though hugely difficult, test for whether a transition of power led by HTS can be relatively peaceful.

Even with the best intentions of the HTS leadership, though, Syria has become a breeding ground for Sunni Islamist terrorism – and this threat could grow.

Any security vacuum will be exploited by Islamic State – which formed a caliphate across swathes of Syria and Iraq during the early years of the civil war – and by al Qaeda.

Putin must be in crisis mode

Then there is the question of Mr Assad’s foreign backers, primarily Russia and Iran.

Vladimir Putin must surely be in crisis mode following the sudden vanquishing of an ally he had previously successfully propped up when rebel groups first challenged his grip on power.

Russia has two strategic military facilities on Syria’s Mediterranean coast – the Tartus naval base and the Hmeimim airbase in Latakia province.

Both will be under threat unless the Kremlin is able to cut some hasty deal with Syria’s emerging powerbrokers – though such a move would surely be near-on impossible given Moscow’s part in supporting the violence carried out previously by Mr Assad’s army.

The dramatic transformation in the reality on the ground will be felt even more starkly by Iran, whose forces have similarly been instrumental in supporting the regime, both through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces in Lebanon.

Syria has been a key part of an axis of influence cultivated by the IRGC over decades and has been an important site for smuggling weapons to Tehran’s proxy forces across the region.

Turkey could emerge as an important ally

Other regional powers will also be rapidly reassessing their approach to Damascus.

Turkey, which shares a border with Syria, will be an interesting nation to watch.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s government has long strongly opposed Mr Assad and has been an important backer for a number of rebel groupings that helped to oust him.

It means Ankara could well emerge as an important ally to the new Syrian leadership.

Trump may be left with little choice

The United States, which has been supporting a Kurdish rebel group in the northeast of Syria, has been unusually muted during the past week of unprecedented change.

President elect Donald Trump has been clear he does not see a role for Washington in the crisis.

But should the situation descend into escalating bloodshed once again, he may have little choice.

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Why hastily declared ceasefires tend to be fragile

Published

1 day ago

June 24, 2025

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Why hastily declared ceasefires tend to be fragile

Ceasefires that are suddenly declared tend to be pretty fragile.

Stable ceasefires usually require a lot of preparation so that everyone on both sides knows what is supposed to happen, and – more importantly – when.

And they normally agree on how it will be monitored so one side cannot seize a quick advantage by breaking it suddenly.

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Without such preparations, and sometimes even with them, ceasefires will tend to be breached – perhaps by accident, perhaps because one side does not exercise full control over its own forces, perhaps as a result of false alarms, or even because a third party – a guerrilla group or a militia, say – choose that moment to launch an attack of their own.

The important question is whether a ceasefire breach is just random and unfortunate, or else deliberate and systemic – where someone is actively trying to break it.

Either way, ceasefires have to be politically reinforced all the time if they are to hold.

All sides may need to rededicate themselves to it at regular intervals, mainly because, as genuine enemies, they won’t trust each other and will remain naturally suspicious at every twitch and utterance from the other side.

This is where an external power like the United States plays a critical part.

If enemies like Israel and Iran naturally distrust each other and need little incentive to “hit back” in some way at every provocation, it will take US pressure to make them abide by a ceasefire that may be breaking down.

Appeals to good nature are hardly relevant in this respect. An external arbiter has to make the continuance of a ceasefire a matter of hard national interest to both sides.

And that often requires as much bullying as persuasion. It may be true that “blessed are the peacemakers”.

World

Five key takeaways from Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s interview with Sky News

Published

1 day ago

June 24, 2025

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Five key takeaways from Volodymyr Zelenskyy's interview with Sky News

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has given a wide-ranging interview to Sky News in which he was asked about the prospect of Russia attacking NATO, whether he would cede land as part of a peace deal and how to force Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table.

The Ukrainian president spoke to chief presenter Mark Austin.

Here are the five key takeaways from their discussion.

NATO ‘at risk of attack’

Mr Zelenskyy said plans for NATO members to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 are “very slow” and warned Russia could attack a NATO country within five years to test the alliance.

“We believe that, starting from 2030, Putin can have significantly greater capabilities,” he said. “Today, Ukraine is holding him up, he has no time to drill the army.”

But while Mr Zelenskyy conceded his ambition to join NATO “isn’t possible now”, he asserted long term “NATO needs Ukrainians”.

US support ‘may be reduced’

Asked about his views on the Israel-Iran conflict, and the impact of a wider Middle East war on Ukraine, Mr Zelenskyy accepted the “political focus is changing”.

“This means that aid from partners, above all from the United States, may be reduced,” he said.

“He [Putin] will increase strikes against us to use this opportunity, to use the fact that America’s focus is changing over to the Middle East.”

On the subject of Mr Putin’s close relationship with Iran, which has supplied Russia with attack drones, Mr Zelenskyy said: “The Russians will feel the advantage on the battlefield and it will be difficult for us.”

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Trump and Putin ‘will never be friends’

Mr Zelenskyy was sceptical about Mr Putin’s relationship with Donald Trump.

“I truly don’t know what relationship Trump has with Putin… but I am confident that President Trump understands that Ukrainians are allies to America, and the real existential enemy of America is Russia.

“They may be short-term partners, but they will never be friends.”

On his relationship with Mr Trump, Mr Zelenskyy was asked about whether he felt bullied by the US president during their spat in the Oval Office.

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“I believe I conducted myself honestly. I really wanted America to be a strong partner… and to be honest, I was counting on that,” he said.

In a sign of potential frustration, the Ukrainian president added: “Indeed, there were things that don’t bring us closer to ending the war. There were some media… standing around us… talking about some small things like my suit. It’s not the main thing.”

Putin and peace talks

Mr Zelenskyy was clear he supported both a ceasefire and peace talks, adding that he would enter negotiations to understand “if real compromises are possible and if there is a real way to end the war”.

But he avoided directly saying whether he would be willing to surrender four annexed regions of Ukraine, as part of any peace deal.

“I don’t believe that he [Putin] is interested in these four regions. He wants to occupy Ukraine. Putin wants more,” he said.

“Putin is counting on a slow occupation of Ukraine, the reduction in European support and America standing back from this war completely… plus the removal of sanctions.

“But I think the strategy should be as follows: Pressure on Putin with political sanctions, with long-range weapons… to force him to the negotiating table.”

Russia ‘using UK tech for missiles’

On Monday, Mr Zelenskyy met Sir Keir Starmer and agreed to share battlefield technology, boosting Ukraine’s drone production, which Mr Zelenskyy described as a “strong step forward”.

But he also spoke about the failure to limit Russia’s access to crucial technology being used in military hardware.

He said “components for missiles and drones” from countries “including the UK” were being used by Russian companies who were not subject to sanctions.

“It is vitally important for us, and we’re handing these lists [of Russian companies] over to our partners and asking them to apply sanctions. Otherwise, the Russians will have missiles,” he added.

World

At least 25 people killed after Israeli forces open fire near aid trucks in Gaza, witnesses say

Published

1 day ago

June 24, 2025

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At least 25 people killed after Israeli forces open fire near aid trucks in Gaza, witnesses say

At least 25 people have been killed after Israeli forces opened fire towards people waiting for aid trucks in Gaza, according to witnesses and hospitals.

The Awda hospital in the Nuseirat refugee camp, which received the victims, said the Palestinians were waiting for the trucks on a road south of Wadi Gaza.

Witnesses told the Associated Press (AP) news agency Israeli forces opened fire as people were advancing to be close to the approaching trucks.

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The Awda hospital said another 146 Palestinians were wounded. Among them were 62 in a critical condition, who were transferred to other hospitals in central Gaza, it added.

In the central town of Deir al-Balah, the Al Aqsa Martyrs hospital said it received the bodies of six people who were killed in the same incident.

“It was a massacre,” one witness, Ahmed Halawa, said.

He said tanks and drones fired at people, “even as we were fleeing – many people were either martyred or wounded”.

Another witness, Hossam Abu Shahada, said drones were flying over the area, watching the crowds. Then there was gunfire from tanks and drones, leaving a “chaotic and bloody” scene as people attempted to escape.

He said he saw at least three people lying on the ground motionless and many others wounded as he fled.

The Israeli military did not immediately comment on the reports.

Philippe Lazzarini, the head of the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, described the aid delivery mechanism in Gaza as “an abomination that humiliates and degrades desperate people”.

He added: “It is a death trap, costing more lives than it saves.”

A spokesperson for the UN’s Human Rights Office said: “The weaponisation of food for civilians, in addition to restricting or preventing their access to life-sustaining services, constitutes a war crime and, under certain circumstances, may constitute elements of other crimes under international law.”

Around 56,000 Palestinians have been killed during the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, according to the territory’s Hamas-run health ministry. The ministry says more than half of the dead were women and children, but does not distinguish between civilians and militants in its count.

The war began after Hamas attacked Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants stormed across the border and killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took another 251 hostages. Most of the hostages have been released in ceasefire agreements.