College Football Playoff 2024: First round first look
The debut of the 12-team College Football Playoff is upon us, and after the field was finalized Sunday, we are now just days away from arguably the best part of this new format: the first-round games.
If one were to hand-pick four locations for the first-ever on-campus playoff games, you’d be hard-pressed to select a more entertaining and fitting set of venues. From Happy Valley to South Bend to the Horseshoe in Columbus and DKR in Austin, fans of blue bloods, playoff stalwarts and first timers will flock to some of the best environments in the sport for four compelling matchups.
The eight teams who find themselves here, in need of not three but four wins to secure the sport’s ultimate prize, are an intriguing combination of programs. Several began the year with title aspirations; others did not. Some may have lost hope along the way, but thanks to this new playoff format, they now have a chance to prove their worth once again on the field.
Here’s a first look at those first-round matchups. — Paolo Uggetti
Jump to:
Indiana at Notre Dame
SMU at Penn State
Clemson at Texas
Tennessee at Ohio State
When: Dec. 20, 8 p.m. ET. TV: ABC/ESPN
Key player: Kurtis Rourke has been one of the top quarterbacks in the country in his first and final season with the Hoosiers. The Ohio transfer from Canada ranks third in the country with a QBR of 85.7, trailing only likely Heisman finalists Cam Ward (88.0) and Dillon Gabriel (85.6) Rourke has completed 70% of his passes and thrown 27 touchdowns with only four interceptions. He now has more than 10,000 passing yards in his career. Rourke struggled in Indiana’s lone loss at Ohio State, passing for just 68 yards with only eight completions. But he bounced right back in the regular-season finale, tossing six touchdowns in a 66-0 victory over Purdue.
X factor: After earning freshman All-America honors, D’Angelo Ponds followed coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison and became a first-team All-Big Ten cornerback in his first season for the Hoosiers. Ponds picked off two passes, including one 67 yards for a touchdown, in Indiana’s key 31-17 win over Washington in late October. Ponds also broke up a pass that was intercepted at Ohio State, which helped keep the Hoosiers in the game through halftime. Indiana needs Ponds to be opportunistic in South Bend.
How Indiana wins: The Hoosiers have been one of the best turnover teams in the country, ranking fifth nationally with a turnover margin of 15. Problem is, Notre Dame is tied for second with a turnover margin of 16. Can Indiana force the Irish into mistakes on their home field? Rourke has to take care of the ball, as he has all year. But the Hoosiers are going to have to come up with big plays defensively to ramp up the pressure on Notre Dame. The Irish have yet to commit a turnover in the red zone this season. Getting a red zone turnover would be huge for Indiana to hang around in just its second matchup against Notre Dame since 1958. — Jake Trotter
Key player: Quarterback Riley Leonard hasn’t put up huge passing numbers this season, but the Notre Dame passing game has grown as the season has progressed. He has thrown 11 of his 16 touchdown passes in the Irish’s past five games and has thrown only two interceptions during that span. Leonard’s ability to run (721 yards and 14 touchdowns) is a big part of his repertoire. He also has four rushing touchdowns in his past five games. One of the big differences, though, is that he has not been as quick to tuck the ball and run any time he feels pressure and has instead been more patient in finding open receivers. Leonard, who transferred from Duke and spent the winter and spring recovering from ankle surgery, has seen his command of the Notre Dame offense improve. He was hampered by some inaccuracy earlier in the season but uses his entire collection of playmakers and spreads the ball around. Eight different players have 20 or more targets this season for Notre Dame in its passing game, and nine different players have caught touchdown passes in the past five games.
X factor: Without question, one of the keys for Notre Dame if it’s going to make a deep playoff run is the health of senior defensive tackle Howard Cross III. A preseason All-American, Cross missed the last month of the regular season with a left ankle injury. He should be a lot closer to full speed for the start of the playoff and gives the Irish a disrupter in the middle of that defensive line and a guy who has played a lot of football at a high level. Notre Dame’s defensive line instantly becomes more formidable with the 6-1, 288-pound Cross in the lineup. He hasn’t played since injuring his ankle during the Florida State game on Nov. 9 and still ranks second on the team in tackles for loss (5.5) and sacks (four).
How Notre Dame wins: Notre Dame hasn’t had a close game since beating Louisville 31-24 at home back on Sept. 28. The home-field advantage should be a major factor for the Irish, and getting ahead early in the game would only make it more difficult on Indiana, which has scored 40 or more points in eight of its 12 games this season. Playing with the lead would allow Notre Dame to play its style of offense, with Leonard keeping Indiana off balance using a blend of running and passing. The Irish have thrown it more than 30 times in a game only twice all season, and one of those times came in the 16-14 loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. So shortening the game, putting together sustained drives and keeping the Hoosiers’ explosive offense off the field is the best pathway for the Irish to advance. — Chris Low
When: Dec. 21, noon ET. TV: TNT/Max
1:46
SMU’s Rhett Lashlee ready to prepare to face Penn State
SMU head coach Rhett Lashlee explains what it was like waiting to find out if his team had made the College Football Playoff.
Key player: Ever since coach Rhett Lashlee decided to go with quarterback Kevin Jennings as the starter in Week 4, the Mustangs offense has been on a different level. The 34-31 loss to Clemson in the ACC championship game was his first defeat as a starter. Despite two early turnovers — a lost fumble and an interception — he led the Mustangs all the way back to tie the game with 16 seconds left before losing on the final play. Jennings threw for 304 yards against the Tigers — his fourth 300-yard passing game. But what opposing coaches rave about is his ability to make off-schedule plays and the rhythm he has with his receivers, particularly when he scrambles outside the pocket.
X factor: If there is one area that Lashlee upgraded in SMU’s move from Group of 5 to Power 4 it is the defensive front and it has paid off dividends — particularly with a group of transfers he got from Miami. Multiple ACC coaches pointed to Jared Harrison-Hunte as the difference-maker on the interior of the SMU defensive line. In the regular season, Harrison-Hunte had 35 tackles, six tackles for loss and five sacks and was an All-ACC first-team selection. As with anything, controlling the line of scrimmage is hugely important. In the ACC championship game, the Mustangs held Clemson to 64 yards rushing, and Harrison-Hunte had two tackles for loss and a sack.
How SMU wins: The Mustangs have to avoid what happened at the start of the ACC championship game — putting itself in an early hole because of turnovers and penalties. They have been one of the most opportunistic teams in the country but in the loss to Clemson, SMU finished minus-2 in the turnover department. SMU also needs to find a way to play better on its offensive line to have any chance, and that might require rolling Jennings out just a little bit more to avoid the type of rush the Penn State front presents. SMU might not be a ground-and-pound type of team, but it does have an electric back in Brashard Smith to set the tone. — Andrea Adelson
Key player: Tyler Warren has been a dominant, all-around force for the Nittany Lions. The surefire All-America tight end has six receiving touchdowns, four rushing touchdowns and even one passing touchdown. He’s the go-to playmaker for an improved Penn State offense that ranked 25th nationally, averaging almost 34 points per game. The Nittany Lions are at their best when they get Warren involved throughout the game. Getting their top tackle-breaker the ball will be paramount for Penn State to find an offense groove against an SMU defense that ranks 76th nationally in passing yards allowed after the catch.
X factor: Abdul Carter can wreck offenses for the Nittany Lions. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, who is a projected first-round pick in the upcoming NFL draft, has 10 sacks and two forced fumbles. Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel said before the Big Ten championship, that you have to know where Carter at all times. The Ponies gave up just 15 sacks all season. Penn State can’t allow dual-threat SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings to sit in the pocket and make plays with his arm or legs like he has all season.
How Penn State wins: After the Big Ten championship game, Penn State coach James Franklin joked that he was looking forward to hosting a playoff game in “16 inches of snow.” Regardless of whether it snows, the wintery conditions and home field of Beaver Stadium should be a massive advantage over SMU, which rolled through the ACC regular season without playing in an overly hostile environment. If the Nittany Lions can jump on SMU early and get its crowd into the game, they should be able to cruise through to the quarterfinals of what was a relatively favorable overall playoff draw. — Trotter
When: Dec. 21, 4 p.m. ET. TV: TNT/Max
2:09
How does Steve Sarkisian feel about Texas’ CFP draw?
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian reacts to his team’s matchup vs. Clemson in the College Football Playoff.
Key player: It has been a fascinating year watching quarterback Cade Klubnik and his development. The stats say he has emerged as a top-tier passer, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 yards, 33 touchdowns and five interceptions. His long touchdown run against Pitt helped them win that game — and may be the low-key reason the Tigers are locked into the CFP. Without that win over the Panthers, they would have lost a head-to-head tiebreaker with Miami and been left out of the ACC championship game and the 12-team field. But there are also times this season when the offense stalls — the same way it did in the third quarter of the ACC championship game against SMU. The same way it did late against South Carolina at the end of the regular season. But in his two ACC championship game appearances, Klubnik has thrown for five combined touchdowns and zero interceptions. He rises to the occasion in the postseason. Now we will see what he does in his first playoff appearance.
X factor: For the Clemson offense to find the consistency it wants, the Tigers need running back Phil Mafah to be playing well. Mafah has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has hampered him over the last month of the season, curtailing his production. Now, with backup Jay Haynes seemingly out after being carted off in the ACC championship game with an injury — the burden of the run game will once again fall to Mafah, who has not had a 100-yard rushing game since the first weekend in November. Having two weeks off before playing again will certainly be a huge help as the Tigers prepare for their playoff opponent.
How Clemson wins: Look at the way Georgia has beaten Texas in two games this year. This is going to have to be the best defensive performance of the season for the Tigers to have any shot. That means playing better against the run, but it also means making sure the pressure is on up front. One player to watch is defensive end T.J. Parker, who has been outstanding in the second half of the season. — Adelson
Key player: Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers battled through oblique and ankle injuries this season. When Ewers was healthy, he was pretty good, completing 66.2% of his attempts for 2,665 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions. However, Texas’ offensive line struggled to protect him in two losses against Georgia. He was sacked five times and had two turnovers in a 30-15 loss to the Bulldogs at home on Oct. 19. Then he was sacked six times and threw two picks in a 22-19 loss in overtime against Georgia in Saturday’s SEC championship game. If Texas is going to reach its potential in the CFP, the offensive line has to give Ewers enough time to get the ball to Matthew Golden and DeAndre Moore Jr., and Ewers has to make better decisions.
X factor: Texas’ defense is a big reason it advanced to the SEC championship game in its first season in the league, and safety Andrew Mukuba was a key addition through the transfer portal. The Austin native spent three seasons at Clemson before returning to his hometown school. He has 52 tackles, four tackles for loss, four interceptions, five pass breakups and one forced fumble this season. Mukuba nearly delivered the biggest play of the SEC championship game when he leveled Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton on a designed run in overtime, but Stockton was somehow able to hold onto the ball. Mukuba can turn momentum with a game-changing play on defense.
How Texas wins: The Longhorns will advance to the CFP quarterfinals if they get back to relying on the ground game and running over opponents. Texas ran for 251 yards in a 31-14 win over Kentucky and 243 in a 17-7 victory at Texas A&M. In their loss to Georgia in Atlanta, however, the Longhorns had only 31 yards on 28 attempts (they lost 27 yards on six sacks). Ewers threw the ball 46 times. Texas all but abandoned the running game inside the Bulldogs’ 30-yard line. Star left tackle Kelvin Banks Jr. missed the game with a sprained left ankle, but he should be good to go after a couple of weeks’ rest. — Mark Schlabach
When: Dec. 21, 8 p.m. ET. TV: ABC/ESPN
1:07
Ryan Day moving forward after Michigan loss
Ohio State coach Ryan Day explains the importance of moving on from the Michigan loss and getting ready for the College Football Playoff.
Key player: Much of the attention in the offseason centered around quarterback Nico Iamaleava and Tennessee’s passing game, but running back Dylan Sampson has been the centerpiece of the Vols’ offense. Coach Josh Heupel has always had a good running game. Tennessee has averaged at least 200 yards per game on the ground in all four of his seasons, but Sampson has carried the Vols’ offense at times this season. His 22 rushing touchdowns are a school record in a season, and he ranks sixth nationally with an SEC-leading 1,485 rushing yards. Sampson is also plenty motivated. He was snubbed in the Doak Walker Award voting for the top running back in the country and didn’t even make the list of finalists. The 5-foot-11, 201-pound junior was as durable as he was consistent. He had 10 100-yard rushing games and lost only 24 yards in 256 rushing attempts. He’s one of those backs who’s always getting a few more yards than it looks like he should and was at his best against SEC competition this season with 1,058 yards in eight games.
X factor: Tennessee struck gold in the transfer portal when it landed cornerback Jermod McCoy from Oregon State. A true sophomore, McCoy has made an already deep and talented Tennessee defensive line even more effective with his ability to match up with the other team’s best receiver and keep him at bay, which will be critical against Ohio State’s collection of talented wideouts. McCoy is tied for the SEC lead with four interceptions. He also has nine pass breakups and is a sure tackler for a cornerback. He’s third on Tennessee’s team with 39 total tackles. What McCoy does best is make plays in key situations, like helping the Vols’ defense get off the field on third down or changing the complexion of a game with a timely breakup. It’s always nice to have a security blanket in the defensive backfield when you’re playing against offenses that can strike quickly.
How Tennessee wins: At the top of the list is playing better and with more poise on the road. The Vols have been lights-out at home under Heupel but have been unable to consistently deliver their A-game (or even B-game) in true road environments, particularly against better teams. That obviously has to change in Columbus, especially with it being a night game. The depth and talent in Tennessee’s defensive line should be key in this game, and creating some short fields for the offense by forcing turnovers would help take some of the pressure off Iamaleava, who played some of his best football the past few games. But here’s another test against a quality team. He accounted for just nine touchdowns and turned the ball over six times in eight SEC games. He certainly doesn’t have to go win this game by himself, but hitting some explosive plays in the passing game — which means the protection has to be strong and receivers need to get open — will be the difference for the Vols as they go against an Ohio State defense that is second nationally in yards per play allowed (4.1). — Low
Key player: Jeremiah Smith is one of the most electric true freshman wide receivers in recent college football history. The Big Ten Freshman and Receiver of the Year shattered Ohio State’s true freshman receiving records set by Cris Carter in 1984. Even on a talented Ohio State offense stacked with other playmakers, Smith has stood out, especially with his acrobatic, one-handed touchdown grabs. The Buckeyes went away from Smith in the stunning 13-10 loss to Michigan, as he received just two targets — and only one catch for three yards — after halftime. They need to go back to him early and often against Tennessee if they’re to rebound from the demoralizing Michigan defeat and make a playoff run.
X factor: Through Ohio State’s first 11 games, quarterback Will Howard — a Kansas State senior transfer — was everything the Buckeyes could’ve hoped for. But against Michigan, Howard struggled, as the Buckeyes failed to score in the second half of a game for the first time in 13 years. Howard still ranks sixth nationally with a QBR of 83.0. But he will have to be much sharper — and, most especially, limit the big mistakes and costly turnovers — if the Buckeyes are going to put the Michigan loss in the past and contend for a national championship.
How Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes have the talent to go on a run and win the national championship. Had they not lost to Michigan, they might have won the Big Ten and earned the top overall seed. Instead, Ohio State dropped a fourth straight game to the Wolverines, putting enormous pressure on coach Ryan Day and Ohio State’s veteran players to rebound and play up to their potential. Ohio State can bypass an elite Tennessee defensive line through the air with its talented wideouts. But the Buckeyes can’t fall into the trap of sticking with the running game if it’s not working, like they did against the Wolverines. — Trotter
Brian Snitker, who guided the Braves to the 2021 World Series championship, will not return as manager after Atlanta failed to make the postseason for the first time since 2017.
The Braves announced the end of Snitker’s 10-year run as manager Wednesday, adding that he will remain with the organization in an advisory role in 2026.
Snitker informed the Braves of his decision Tuesday, sources told ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
Snitker, whose contract expired after this season, has been with the Braves organization in some capacity as a player, coach and manager since 1977.
He was named interim replacement to then-Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez in May 2016 and was elevated to the permanent role before the start of the 2017 season.
“I’ve teetered on the fence [about retirement],” Snitker said after the Braves’ final game on Sept. 28. “I’ve never been through this before. I wasn’t sure how to navigate it. I’ve talked to a lot of people who have been through it who got some good advice. I’ve just tried to stay in the moment and focus on today … As we’re sitting here right now, I still feel good.”
The Braves went 76-86 this season, finishing fourth in the National League East and ending a streak of seven consecutive postseason appearances. That run included six straight NL East titles from 2018-2023 and the franchise’s first World Series victory since 1995.
Braves general manager and president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos said on Sept. 8 that Snitker, 69, will be a “Brave for life” but did not go into detail about the manager’s future.
Snitker said he was encouraged by Atlanta’s play in the final month-plus of the season, which included a 10-game winning streak from Sept. 14 to Sept. 23.
The Braves went 811-668 in their eight-plus seasons under Snitker.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
Who is ready for some more MLB playoff action?
After the first day of the wild-card round featured close wins by the Detroit Tigers, San Diego Padres and Boston Red Sox, it’s time for the first potential elimination day of the 2025 postseason.
Who will stay alive and who will be sent packing?
We’ve got you covered with pregame lineups, keys to forcing Game 3, sights and sounds from the ballparks, and postgame takeaways as each Day 2 matchup ends.
Key links: Megapreview | Day 1 lessons | Bracket | Schedule
Jump to a matchup:
DET-CLE | SD-CHC | BOS-NYY | CIN-LAD
1 p.m. ET on ESPN
Tigers lead 1-0
Game 2 starters: Casey Mize vs. Tanner Bibee
What the Guardians need to do to force Game 3: Figure out a way to score some runs. Hey, at least they won’t be facing Tarik Skubal. The Guardians’ best bet is to have Jose Ramirez or Kyle Manzardo run into something, as Mize can be vulnerable to the home run at times (21 allowed in 149 innings). But maybe Cleveland can get Mize to run up his count and force AJ Hinch to go a little earlier than he would like to a Detroit bullpen that was shaky in September (2-8, 4.58 ERA) and especially struggled in close games. — David Schoenfield
Lineups
Tigers
1. Parker Meadows (L) CF
2. Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
3. Kerry Carpenter (L) DH
4. Spencer Torkelson (R) 1B
5. Riley Greene (L) LF
6. Wenceel Perez (S) RF
7. Dillon Dingler (R) C
8. Zach McKinstry (L) 3B
9. Javier Baez (R) SS
Guardians
1. Steven Kwan (L) LF
2. George Valera (L) RF
3. Jose Ramirez (S) 3B
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) DH
5. Bo Naylor (L) C
6. Gabriel Arias (R) SS
7. Chase DeLauter (L) CF
8. CJ Kayfus (L) 1B
9. Brayan Rocchio (S) 2B
3 p.m. ET on ABC
Cubs lead 1-0
Game 2 starters: Dylan Cease vs. Andrew Kittredge
What the Padres need to do to force Game 3: As dominant as the Cubs’ bullpen looked in Game 1, that suggests the Padres will need to take an early lead and hand the game to their bullpen while ahead. And that means getting a strong effort from Cease. But his home/away splits were pretty dramatic this year: Cease went 7-3 with a 3.61 ERA at home and 1-9 with a 5.58 ERA on the road. That ERA difference might be a little misleading, as his secondary stats are similar, other than a dip in his strikeout rate (12.2 K’s per nine at home, 10.8 on the road). Given the must-win nature for the Padres, Mike Shildt will have a quick hook anyway. But the Padres probably will need at least four innings from Cease — and probably with 0 or 1 in the runs allowed column. — Schoenfield
Lineups
Padres
TBD
Cubs
TBD
6 p.m. ET on ESPN
Red Sox lead 1-0
Game 2 starters: Brayan Bello vs. Carlos Rodon
What the Yankees need to do to force Game 3: The Yankees need Rodón to pitch deep into Game 3. For as well as Max Fried pitched in Game 1, the Yankees’ bullpen immediately imploded upon his exit, and the offense couldn’t recover against Garrett Crochet and Aroldis Chapman. The best way to avoid another letdown by the bullpen is to minimize its impact on the game, which would allow the group to rest up for a do-or-die Game 3. — Jorge Castillo
Lineups
Red Sox
TBD
Yankees
TBD
9 p.m. ET on ESPN
Dodgers lead 1-0
Game 2 starters: Zack Littell vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
What the Reds need to do to force Game 3: Well, not allowing five home runs is a good start. Look, this is going to be a difficult game against Yamamoto, who allowed just three runs over his final five starts of the regular season. The best hope for the Reds is a performance where Yamamoto struggles with his control, which rarely occurs but did happen in one September start when he walked six batters. That would lead to a high pitch count and a relatively early exit, allowing the Reds to get into the Dodgers’ bullpen — a unit that was certainly an issue for L.A. throughout the season and didn’t distinguish itself in the late innings of Game 1. — Schoenfield
Lineups
Reds
TBD
Dodgers
TBD
Sports
World Series Drought-Buster Watch: Which MLB playoff teams could end longest runs without titles?
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David Schoenfield
Mathematical probability, in a perfectly equitable distribution of championships, means each MLB team would win a World Series once every 30 years. That is not the world we live in, of course, so many franchises have experienced long title droughts that have stretched into multiple decades. There is even one that has never appeared in the Fall Classic.
That establishes a super fun element to this year’s postseason. We have seven playoff teams who have gone longer than 30 years since their last World Series championship — including the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres, who have never won, and the Seattle Mariners, who have still never reached the World Series 48 years into their franchise history.
Maybe, just maybe, some team’s long-suffering fans will experience that euphoria of winning the final game of the season.
Yes, it’s the year of the World Series Drought-Buster Watch. Let’s look at those seven franchises, what went wrong through the years, and why this may finally be The Year.
Last World Series title: 1948
Last World Series appearance: 2016 (lost to the Cubs in seven games).
Closest call since then: Lost the 2024 ALCS to the Yankees in five games.
Three painful postseason moments:
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Led Game 7 of the 1997 World Series against the Marlins 2-1 in the ninth inning, but the Marlins tied the score off closer Jose Mesa. In the bottom of the 11th, second baseman Tony Fernandez let a slow grounder hit by Florida’s Craig Counsell go under his glove for an error, setting up Edgar Renteria’s walk-off hit.
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In Game 7 of the 2016 World Series against the Cubs, Rajai Davis’ three-run homer in the eighth miraculously tied the score, but the Cubs scored twice in the top of the 10th. Davis’ two-out single in the bottom of the inning made it 8-7, but Cleveland was left with light-hitting Michael Martinez at the plate with two outs and the World Series on the line. Terry Francona had inserted Martinez in the ninth inning to get a better outfield arm in the game when the Cubs got a runner to third base. Martinez hit a slow bouncer to third base to end the game.
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The best Cleveland team ever, the 1995 squad with one of the greatest lineups of all time, loses the clinching Game 6 of the World Series 1-0 to Atlanta while registering just one hit with the only run of the game coming on a David Justice home run off reliever Jim Poole.
Why they haven’t won: Can’t win the big game.
No franchise has suffered more postseason agony, at least since the Red Sox broke through in 2004.Though the Cleveland franchise was certainly dreadful for most of the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s, it has been consistently competitive since 1995, making the postseason 15 times and ranking sixth in overall wins during that span.
But the Guardians are 2-8 in winner-take-all games, winning the first of those in the 1997 ALDS and beating the Tigers in Game 5 of last year’s ALDS, but losing eight in a row in between. Along the way, they blew:
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A 2-0 lead in the 1999 ALDS, losing the final two games to Boston by scores of 23-7 and 12-8.
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A 2-1 lead to Seattle in the 2001 ALDS.
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A 3-1 lead to Boston in the 2007 ALCS, losing the final three games 7-1, 12-2 and 11-2.
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A 3-1 lead in the 2016 World Series, losing the final two games at home.
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A 2-0 lead to the Yankees in the 2017 ALDS.
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A 2-1 lead to the Yankees in the 2022 ALDS.
In those six series, they had 16 chances to close out a series and went 0-16.
Why this could be the year: Cleveland has certainly had better and more glamorous teams than this one. Indeed, with a negative run differential on the season, this is one of the weakest teams ever to make the postseason. The Guardians struggle to score runs. But they can pitch — and the pitching is peaking at the right time. In going 18-4 to close out the regular season, they allowed just 45 runs in 22 games, allowing two or fewer runs in 17 of those.
This team also doesn’t have the burden of expectations like those superstar-laden squads of the late ’90s, or even the 2016 and 2017 squads, which won 94 and 102 games, respectively. On the other hand, if we look at the teams who broke long World Series droughts in the past 20 years, they were all powerhouse clubs: the 2004 Red Sox (98 wins), the 2005 White Sox (99 wins), the 2016 Cubs (103 wins), the 2017 Astros (101 wins). Even the 2023 Rangers, while essentially a one-year fluke and winners of just 90 games, still posted a run differential of plus-165.
But in this year of unpredictability, maybe it’s simply Cleveland’s year.
Milwaukee Brewers
Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1969, moved to Milwaukee in 1970).
Last World Series appearance: 1982 (lost to the Cardinals in seven games).
Closest call since then: Lost the 2018 NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games.
Three painful postseason moments:
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Leading 3-1 in the bottom of the sixth inning in Game 7 of the 1982 World Series, the Cardinals load the bases with one out. Keith Hernandez hits a two-run single off Bob McClure and George Hendrick follows with a go-ahead single as the Cardinals go on to a 6-3 win. Brewers fans will always wonder what the outcome might have been if Hall of Fame reliever Rollie Fingers, who got injured in September, had not missed the World Series.
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Pete Alonso‘s three-run, go-ahead home run in the ninth inning off Devin Williams in last year’s Game 3 of the wild-card series.
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Leading the Nationals 3-1 in the bottom of the eighth of the 2019 wild-card game, Josh Hader loads the bases with a hit batter, single and walk. With two outs, Juan Soto singles to right field and rookie Trent Grisham overruns the ball, allowing all three runners to score.
Why they haven’t won: Lack of offense has led to early playoff exits.
For a long time, the Brewers were just bad. They didn’t have a winning season from 1993 to 2006. Current owner Mark Attanasio bought the team from the Selig family in 2005, however, and after a breakthrough season in 2008, the Brewers have mostly been competitive since, despite the challenges of playing in MLB’s smallest market. The Prince Fielder-Ryan Braun teams were built around offense, but the teams under managers Craig Counsell and now Pat Murphy have centered more on pitching, defense, speed and doing the little things well.
While Christian Yelich was an MVP in 2018 and runner-up in 2019, the recent teams have often lacked one true offensive star to anchor the lineup. That’s one reason the Brewers have had trouble scoring enough runs in the postseason, and that has led to losses in that 2019 wild-card game and wild-card series in 2020, 2023 and 2024. They were in the NLDS in 2021, but scored just six runs in four games, including two shutouts. Overall, the Brewers have gone 2-10 in the playoffs since 2019 entering this year and have hit just .229/.290/.351.
Why this could be the year: Even though the Brewers still don’t have that superstar hitter and rank below average in home runs, this is a deep, good offensive team. Only the Yankees and Dodgers scored more runs during the regular season. Only the Blue Jays struck out less among the playoff teams. And the Brewers do have guys who can hit home runs: Yelich has had his best power season since 2019; Brice Turang has slugged over .500 in the second half; Jackson Chourio can hit it out; and William Contreras hit nine home runs in August, so if he gets hot at the right time, he can help carry a lineup.
The Brewers also earned the No. 1 overall seed and have played well at home, with a 51-29 record. That could be a nice advantage. And even without the injured Trevor Megill, this is a strong bullpen with hard-throwing Abner Uribe capable of closing down leads. The Brewers had the best record for a reason: They’ve quieted skeptics and have remained the most consistent team all season long.
San Diego Padres
Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1969).
Last World Series appearance: 1998 (lost to the Yankees in four games).
Closest call since then: Lost the 2022 NLCS to the Phillies in five games.
Three painful postseason moments:
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Game 1 of the 1998 World Series is tied 5-5 with two outs and the bases loaded in the bottom of the seventh. Mark Langston appears to strike out Tino Martinez on a 2-2 fastball right at the knees, but umpire Rich Garcia calls it a ball. Martinez belts the next pitch for a grand slam.
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Trying to stay alive in the 2022 NLCS and send the series back to San Diego, the Padres lead the Phillies 3-2 in the bottom of the eighth. With a runner on first, Bryce Harper fouls off three fastballs from Robert Suarez, spits on a changeup, then belts a 99 mph heater over the fence in left field for the series-winning home run.
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Up two games to one in last year’s NLDS against the hated Dodgers, the Padres are shut out in the final two games. The final 19 batters in Game 5 are retired in order as the Dodgers win the series clincher 2-0.
Why they haven’t won: Until the late Peter Seidler became chairman, the Padres never had owners completely invested in winning. Since 2020 they’ve tried hard to get over the hump — but haven’t.
The Padres’ tormented history has featured periodic bouts of success — a surprise World Series team in 1984 and another in 1998 — but mostly a lot of losing. Under Tom Werner, there was the infamous teardown in 1993 when an order to reduce payroll resulted in the trades of Fred McGriff and Gary Sheffield. From 2007 through 2019, they made the playoffs, finishing over .500 just two of those years. But a rebuild in the late 2010s combined with an infusion of cash under Seidler has led to fun and competitive teams since 2020, with big crowds and now four playoff appearances in six years.
In two of those three years, they’ve met their archrival Dodgers, beating them in the 2022 NLDS, but losing in 2020 and then last year’s frustrating NLDS. The Padres’ offense seems to go cold at the wrong time — Manny Machado has not been a great postseason hitter for them and Juan Soto didn’t have a good one in his one postseason with the Padres in 2022 (and Fernando Tatis Jr. was out that season).
Why this could be the year: Bullpen, bullpen, bullpen. The Padres have perhaps the best one in the majors, even without injured All-Star Jason Adam. Suarez and Mason Miller provide a late-game pair of flamethrowers, Adrian Morejon is one of the best lefty relievers in the game, Jeremiah Estrada is a strikeout machine. and there is more depth beyond those four. Nick Pivetta had a terrific year to lead the rotation, and Dylan Cease, despite a down year, has the strikeout stuff that could play well in October.
The question: Can they hit enough home runs to score enough runs? A.J. Preller did improve the offense with the trade deadline acquisitions of Ramon Laureano (who is out with a fractured finger), Ryan O’Hearn and Freddy Fermin, but the Padres are still just 12th in OPS and 18th in home runs since then. We have to factor Petco Park into those numbers a bit, but the Padres will need their stars — Machado and Tatis — to step up. If they do, the bullpen can do the rest.
Seattle Mariners
Last World Series title: None (franchise debuted in 1977).
Last World Series appearance: None.
Closest call: Lost the 1995 ALCS to Cleveland and the 2000 ALCS to the Yankees, both in six games. Also lost the 2001 ALCS in five games. Were up 2-1 in the 1995 ALCS against Cleveland, but a powerful Mariners lineup got shut out twice in the final three games.
Three painful postseason moments:
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Leading 1-0 and looking to tie the 2001 ALCS against the Yankees at two games apiece, New York’s Bernie Williams ties the game with an eighth-inning home run off Arthur Rhodes, and Alfonso Soriano hits a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth off Kazuhiro Sasaki.
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Rhodes again. In Game 6 of the 2000 ALCS, the Mariners are leading the Yankees 4-3 in the seventh when David Justice blasts a three-run homer off Rhodes and sends Yankee Stadium into a deafening roar.
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Back in the playoffs in 2022 for the first time since 2001, the Mariners lead the Astros 7-3 in the eighth inning in the division series. Alex Bregman hits a two-run homer in the eighth. With two on and two outs in the bottom of the ninth, manager Scott Servais summons starter Robbie Ray out of the bullpen to face Yordan Alvarez. Wrong decision. Alvarez blasts a game-winning three-run homer.
Why they haven’t won: Bad offenses and, for the longest time, bad drafting. And just missing the playoffs.
The Mariners couldn’t win in the mid-to-late ’90s despite a roster that featured Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Alex Rodriguez and Edgar Martinez. Then came the miracle season of 2001, when they won a record 116 games with only Martinez still on the roster. Then came the long playoff drought, from 2002 to 2021. Those teams were marked mostly by inept offense: They once finished last in the AL in runs four straight seasons. In 2010, they traded for Cliff Lee and went all-in on pitching and defense. ESPN The Magazine put them on its cover. They lost 101 games.
Jerry Dipoto was hired as GM after the 2015 season and began turning things around. He drafted Logan Gilbert and George Kirby in the first round in 2018 and 2019, Cal Raleigh was a third-round pick in 2018, Bryan Woo was a sixth-round pick in 2021. The organization signed Julio Rodriguez in 2017. Since 2021, the Mariners have had five straight winning seasons and are seventh in the majors in wins — but this is only their second playoff appearance, having just missed in 2021, 2023 and 2024.
Why this could be the year: With Raleigh’s historic campaign leading the way, this is the best offense the Mariners have had in 25 years, with their highest wRC+ since 2001. Dipoto’s deadline trades for Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez created one of the best one-through-nine groups in the majors. They ranked third in the majors in home runs, and Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena and Naylor (!) each stole 30 bases. The Mariners’ bullpen isn’t super deep but the late-game foursome of Andres Munoz, Matt Brash, Eduard Bazardo and Gabe Speier has been reliable.
As that stretch of 17 wins in 18 games in September showed, the starting pitching might finally be living up to the preseason expectations following a stellar 2024 season. The concern is Woo’s health. Seattle’s best starter all season with 15 wins and a 2.97 ERA, Woo left his final start with inflammation in his pectoral muscle. The Mariners still have Gilbert, Kirby and Luis Castillo, but if the only franchise never to reach a World Series is to get there, a healthy Woo feels necessary.
Last World Series title: 1984
Last World Series appearance: 2012 (lost to the Giants in four games).
Closest call since then: Lost the 2013 ALCS to the Red Sox in six games.
Three painful postseason moments:
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Leading 5-1 against the Red Sox in Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS and looking to go up two games to none in the series, David Ortiz ties the game in the eighth inning with a two-out, first-pitch grand slam off Joaquin Benoit, a play that sees Tigers right fielder Torii Hunter take a tumble over the wall and into the bullpen area at Fenway Park. The Red Sox walk it off the next inning with the help of an error and wild pitch.
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Game 6 of the same series, the Tigers are leading 2-1 in the seventh inning of Game 6 when Jose Iglesias makes another critical error. Jose Veras enters to face Shane Victorino, who belts a grand slam.
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Game 5 of last year’s ALDS against Cleveland, score tied 1-1 in the fifth, Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal serves up, yes, a grand slam to Lane Thomas.
Why they haven’t won: Couldn’t get it done with the Justin Verlander/Miguel Cabrera/Max Scherzer teams.
The Tigers had two long dry spells of ineptitude since that last championship in 1984. From 1994 to 2005, they suffered 12 consecutive losing seasons, including years with 106, 109 and 119 losses. From 2017 to 2023, it was seven straight losing seasons, including a 114-loss year in 2019.
Between those bad spells, however, were teams featuring the three future Hall of Famers. The Tigers made four straight postseasons from 2011 to 2014 but couldn’t get over the top. Dave Dombrowski’s teams were always top-heavy in stars but lacking in depth — and, usually, it was the bullpen that would bite the Tigers in the playoffs. Then Scherzer left as a free agent, Cabrera battled injuries and stopped hitting and Verlander was prematurely traded in 2017 with minimal return. The Tigers entered a rebuilding period that finally resulted in the franchise’s first playoff appearance in a decade in 2024.
Why this could be the year: The end of the regular season certainly doesn’t inspire much confidence after the Tigers went 7-17 in September and blew a 10-game lead to lose the division title. They just need to find their first-half mojo when they had the best record in the majors on July 6. It helps to have an ace like Skubal who can carry the rotation, and A.J. Hinch still has the same versatile roster he deployed so successfully for most of the season. Many believe Hinch is the best in-game manager in the business, and maybe that will be the difference-maker in a wide-open postseason.
Last World Series title: 1990
Last World Series appearance: 1990 (beat the A’s in four games).
Closest call since then: Lost the 1995 NLCS to the Braves in four games.
Three painful postseason moments:
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In Game 1 of the 2012 NLDS against the Giants, Reds ace Johnny Cueto leaves his start after eight pitches with a back injury. The Reds lose the game and, minus Cueto the rest of the series, lose in five games.
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In Game 5 of that series, the Reds are trailing 6-3 but rallying with two on and nobody out in the bottom of the sixth. But Ryan Hanigan strikes out looking on a 3-2 pitch and, with the runners moving, Jay Bruce is thrown out trying to steal third. Rally over. The Reds lose 6-4.
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In Game 1 of the 1995 NLCS, Pete Schourek is trying to finish off a shutout, leading 1-0 heading into the top of the ninth against Atlanta. The Braves tie it up, however, and win in 11 innings. The Braves win Game 2 in extra innings as well and go on to a four-game sweep.
Why they haven’t won: Bad owners … and one very bad trade.
The Reds were competitive throughout the 1990s and won 96 games in 1999, the year Carl Lindner bought the team from Marge Schott, although they lost a tiebreaker game to the Mets and missed the playoffs. That offseason, GM Jim Bowden pulled off one of the biggest blockbusters in MLB history, acquiring Ken Griffey Jr. from the Mariners.
The trade turned out to be a disaster. Griffey had trouble staying healthy and wasn’t very productive while chewing up a large chunk of the payroll. The Reds had a losing season every year from 2001 to 2009. Bob Castellini purchased the team in 2005, and a new wave of young players led by Joey Votto, and with manager Dusty Baker at the helm, made the playoffs three times in four seasons, including two National League Central titles. The Reds’ payroll climbed as high as 11th in the majors in 2014 but that didn’t last long. By 2016, the Reds were back to 28th in payroll and losing 94 games.
The Reds rarely spend money in free agency. When they signed Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos for $64 million each in 2020, it was the first time they had ever signed a free agent for more than $50 million. By 2022, they were back to cutting payroll. Without an owner willing to go the extra mile, the Reds have found it difficult to make the playoffs — let alone win it all.
Why this could be the year: Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Andrew Abbott. The Reds don’t score a lot of runs but they have a chance to prevent them. That young rotation trio is reminiscent of the 2003 Florida Marlins, a wild-card team that rode a young rotation to a World Series title, with Greene taking on the role of Josh Beckett, as the hard-throwing ace of the staff and ability to blow away an opponent in any given game. The Marlins also had a 20-year-old rookie named Miguel Cabrera who was batting cleanup by the World Series. The Reds have 21-year-old rookie in Sal Stewart, who has played just 18 games but has already spent some time batting cleanup.
And don’t overlook Terry Francona. He has been here before. He knows how to manage in the postseason, with the necessary urgency and the ability to get players to believe in themselves. He won’t be afraid, for example, to use rookie righty Chase Burns as a high-leverage option out of the bullpen, even though Burns has just 43 innings in the majors and even spent most of short time in the majors as a starter.
Last World Series title: 1993
Last World Series appearance: 1993 (beat the Phillies in six games).
Closest call since then: Lost the 2015 ALCS in six games to Kansas City. Also lost the 2016 ALCS, in five games, to Cleveland.
Three painful postseason moments:
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Game 6 of the 2015 ALCS is tied in the eighth when Kansas City’s Lorenzo Cain draws a leadoff walk. Eric Hosmer then singles to right field with Cain heading to third, and when Jose Bautista throws the ball into second base, Cain keeps on sprinting home for the winning run in a 4-3 victory.
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In Game 2 of that series, the Blue Jays lead 3-0 in the seventh but manager John Gibbons leaves in a tiring David Price to give up five hits and five runs.
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The Blue Jays blow an 8-2 lead at home in Game 2 of the 2022 wild-card series against Seattle. The winning runs come up when J.P. Crawford clears the bases with a bloop double to center field as a diving George Springer collides with Bo Bichette.
Why they haven’t won: A tough division and the bats going dry in October.
After back-to-back World Series titles in ’92 and ’93, the Blue Jays went 20 years without a playoff appearance even though they were rarely bad in that period. They just couldn’t beat the Yankees and Red Sox or, later, the Rays and Orioles. They finally broke through and won the American League East in 2015 with the Josh Donaldson/Jose Bautista team that scored 127 more runs than any other AL team. They lost to the Royals in the ALCS that year and to Cleveland in 2016 — when the Jays scored just eight runs in five games. Remember when Cleveland had to start an obscure minor leaguer named Ryan Merritt, who had started one game in the majors, in Game 5 because they had no other starters? He tossed 4⅔ shutout innings.
In recent years, the Blue Jays went 0-6 in wild-card series in 2020, 2022 and 2023, scoring three runs in 2020, getting shut out once in 2022, and scoring one run in two games against the Twins in 2023. Entering 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has hit .136 in six playoff games (no home runs, one RBI) and Bichette .273 with the same no home runs and one RBI.
Why this could be the year: This is a better Blue Jays club than those last three playoff teams. They have home-field advantage throughout the AL bracket and went 54-27 at home. Since May 27, only the Brewers have a better record, and they do things that work in postseason baseball: They play good defense and they had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors. Kevin Gausman and Shane Bieber give them a strong 1-2 punch and rookie Trey Yesavage could be a huge secret weapon, either as a starter or reliever, despite just 14 innings in the majors. Plus, Guerrero and Bichette (if he’s healthy) are due to finally do something in October.
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