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The economy remained in reverse gear during October, according to official figures covering the month ahead of the government’s first budget.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said output fell 0.1% following the 0.1% decline recorded for the previous month.

It marked the first time since the COVID pandemic that the economy had shrunk for two consecutive months.

The figures showed zero growth in the powerhouse services sector, with manufacturing and construction declining at a pace of 0.6% and 0.4% respectively.

Economists had expected a positive headline figure.

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The data adds to the picture of a far more jittery economy during the second half of the year, in the wake of the general election.

Critics blame the government, accusing Sir Keir Starmer and his chancellor Rachel Reeves of a spectacular, early, own goal that spooked the public and businesses alike.

After three weeks in office, both warned of a “tough” budget to come on 30 October due to an inherited “£22bn black hole” in the public finances that a snap Treasury review had uncovered.

There has been strong evidence since then of a hit to sentiment as a result of the warning in data covering things like consumer spending and wage awards.

SLOWING ECONOMY MAY BOLSTER PACE OF RATE CUTS



Gurpreet Narwan

Business and economics correspondent

@gurpreetnarwan

The economy is now 0.1% smaller than it was before Labour came to power.

It’s been almost six months but the new government is yet to deliver on its promise to turbocharge economic growth.

The chancellor will today urge the public to be patient with her. The message will be: It will take a lot longer than six months to revive an economy that has been stagnating for a decade.

How confident should we be in her plan? On the one hand, falling inflation and interest rates should provide a more fertile environment for consumer spending and business investment.

The government’s plan to increase public investment should also boost demand in the economy and, if successful, lead to longer term sustained growth.

Yet, there are a number of risks. A big increase in business taxes next year will weigh on employment and growth.

Pubs, restaurants and retailers are already stagnating and that was before they reacted to the budget, which at the end of the month slapped them with a big increase in employers’ national insurance contributions..

The latest figures show output in consumer-facing services fell by 0.6% in October 2024, following growth of 0.4% in September 2024. Manufacturing also shrank by 0.6% as, across the economy, businesses went in ‘wait and see’ mode ahead of the budget. The risk is they didn’t like what they saw in the budget.

Then there is Trump and the risk of tariffs. Britain could escape the worst of the cross hairs but we will have to wait and see. If things go against us, it’s very possible that the Bank of England could soon start worrying more about weak growth than inflation, possibly a prelude – as we’ve seen in Europe – to a faster pace of interest rate cuts.

The economy, which had been the fastest-growing in the G7 between January and June, grew by 0.1% during the third quarter of the year.

Economists had been expecting a similar performance in the final three months of 2024 following a budget that largely spared working people additional pain but put businesses and those of wealthier means on the hook for extra taxes.

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CBI chief’s approach to budget tax shock

Business has since accused the chancellor of hurting the very working people she wants to protect as measures, such as higher employer National Insurance contributions, will only lead to weaker pay growth, fewer jobs and higher prices as additional costs are passed on.

Employers also argue that the extra tax burden, along with tougher employee rights legislation, will hurt investment at a time when Labour has prioritised growth in the economy.

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HMV owner slams budget ‘burden’

Ms Reeves said the figures were “disappointing”, but defended the budget.

She said: “We have put public finances back on a stable footing, capped the rate of corporation tax at the lowest level in the G7, established a £70bn National Wealth Fund to drive growth in our towns and cities, launched a 10-year infrastructure strategy and are creating pension mega funds to boost investment in British businesses, infrastructure and clean energy.”

The chancellor added: “We are determined to deliver economic growth as higher growth means increased living standards for everyone, everywhere.”

Mel Stride, the shadow chancellor, said: “It is no wonder businesses are sounding the alarm.

“This fall in growth shows the stark impact of the chancellor’s decisions and continually talking down the economy.”

He went on to say that Labour was left “the fastest growing economy in the G7”, adding: “Because of their decisions, growth is now under serious pressure.

“The impact will be felt by families through higher taxes, fewer jobs, higher prices and higher interest rates.”

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The government has shifted the growth emphasis to the public sector through a jump in investment in services such as the NHS.

Ms Reeves is borrowing more to help fund that and insists the budget was a one-off to help fix pressing problems that were unfunded by her predecessor.

The Bank of England has said that the reaction of business to the budget tax hikes is its main area of concern when judging the prospects for inflation and economic growth.

Financial markets are expecting four interest rate cuts next year but no change when policymakers meet for the final time in 2024 next week.

Commenting on today’s figures Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said: “October activity was held back by uncertainty ahead of the budget, with consumer and business confidence near recent lows.

“The fourth quarter could see a weaker pace of growth, as businesses come to terms with the higher tax burden announced at the budget as well as rising geopolitical uncertainties.

“Nevertheless, we expect higher public spending to lift GDP growth next year, with lower interest rates providing some boost to private sector demand.”

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Rent prices reach record high in England

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Rent prices reach record high in England

English rent prices have reached another record high, growing by close to 10% in the past year, official figures show.

The typical private rental price in England rose 9.3% in the year up to November, costing £116 more than 12 months earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

English renters paid an average of £1,362 last month – a steep increase from the 8.8% hike seen a month earlier.

UK rent rises were not far behind, growing 9.1% across the year, just below the record-high annual rise of 9.2% in March.

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Londoners saw the biggest rent raises. In the capital, rent bills were up 11.6%, bypassing the previous record high.

Cheaper housing could be found in Scotland and Wales during the period. Their mean monthly rents were £980, up 6.5% and £772, 8.0% higher respectively.

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Data for Northern Ireland is only available up to September, during which period rents rose 9%.

Analysis by Sky News found most people in the UK were renters and mortgage holders were in the minority.

Rent increasing disproportionately

Rent increases far surpass house price rises, mortgage rates and the overall rate of inflation.

People remortgaging at the end of November could secure a typical five-year fixed deal for 5.28% or a two-year fixed deal for 5.52%.

Meanwhile, the consumer price index measure of inflation stood at 2.6%.

Also published on Wednesday were average house prices, which were far below rent increases.

Average UK house prices rose 3.4% in the year to October 2024. In England, house prices are up 3%, in Wales 4% and in Scotland 5.5%, the ONS said.

Why are prices rising?

The increase comes due to there being more renters than rental properties available, the National Residential Landlords Association (NRLA) said.

“The biggest pressure on rents remains a chronic shortage of housing to meet demand,” NLRA’s policy director Chris Norris said.

“According to Savills up to one million new homes to rent will be needed by 2031 to meet growing demand. Despite this, government data shows that one in three landlords are now planning to sell properties they rent out over the next two years.”

London Renters Union has been contacted for comment.

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Spending calculator: Which prices are rising and falling fastest?

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Spending calculator: Which prices are rising and falling fastest?

Inflation has risen for the second month in a row to 2.6% in November.

Today’s percentage is above the Bank of England’s 2% target and marks an increase from October, when inflation climbed to 2.3% after three months of decline.

This is due to the higher cost of clothing, petrol and diesel, compared to last year, the ONS said.

But how does all of this affect the cost of groceries, clothing and leisure activities? Use our calculator to find out.

Which prices are increasing fastest?

Olive oil was the item with the largest price increase, with prices for 500ml to one litre rising from £7.22 to £9.21, an increase of 28%.

Olive oil has consistently had high price increases and experts have put that price rise down primarily to poor olive yields due to last year’s heatwaves in southern Europe.

However, they expect a significantly better harvest in the 2024-25 season, thanks to significant rainfall in Spain. The harvest could be double the size of last year’s, which may lead to lower prices in the coming months.

With Christmas fast approaching, many festive staples are seeing price increases, with carrots and potatoes up by nearly a fifth. On the drinks front, a 70cl bottle of cream liqueur has risen by 4%, but there’s good news for Champagne lovers with a bottle now costing 0.5% less.

Food and drink products are responsible for seven of the 10 biggest increases since last year.

Of non-food items, hair gel increased the most, by a fifth from £3.33 to £4.11.

Top five price rises:

• Olive oil (500ml-1litre): up 28%, £7.22 to £9.21
• Iceberg lettuce (each): up 24%, 80p to 99p
• Hair gel (150-200ml): up 23%, £3.33 to £4.11
• Hand rolling tobacco pack (30g): up 22%, £20.46 to £24.97
• Plums (per kg): up 20%, £2.91 to £3.48

Overall, 50 of the 156 types of food and drink tracked by the ONS have actually become cheaper since last year.

Crumpet lovers have reason to celebrate-prices for a pack of 6-9 crumpets have dropped by 8%, along with some dairy-free spread to top them with.

Overall, 142 out of the 444 products in our database are cheaper than they were 12 months ago.

Top food price decreases:

• Pulses (390-420g): down 12%, 76p to 67p
• Frozen prawns (per kg): down 9%, £18.87 to £17.20
• Canned tomatoes (390-400g): down 8%, 72p to 66p
• Dairy free spread/margarine (450-500g): down 8%, £2.17 to £1.99
• Crumpets (pack of 6-9): down 8%, £1.00 to 92p

Of non-supermarket items, kerosene has been the biggest price faller – by a more than a fifth.

What is the effect of long-term inflation?

The price changes described above compare the cost of items to where they were a year ago.

However, inflation has now been at high levels for an extended period of time.

The war in Ukraine, COVID, Brexit, and other supply chain pressures have all contributed to spiralling costs in recent years.

Inflation reached a 40-year high of 11.1% in October 2022.

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While the headline inflation figure has come down markedly, any amount of inflation means that prices are still rising, and building on already inflated costs.

We’ve compared the costs of shopping items with what they were three years ago to see what the cumulative impact of inflation has been.

The biggest price rise for groceries over that time has been for olive oil (500ml to one litre), which has increased nearly two-and-a-half times (146%), from £3.74 to £9.21 in the past three years.

Iceberg lettuce is up by four-fifths, with one costing 99p now compared with 54p in October 2021.

Use our calculator to see how much prices in your shopping basket have risen in total since three years ago.

Who is worst affected?

Richard Lim, chief executive of Retail Economics, says: “It’s the least affluent households that are going to see much higher rates of inflation as they spend more of their income on food and energy.”

We’ll continue to update our spending calculator over the coming months so you can see how you’ll be affected.

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Methodology

The ONS collects these prices by visiting thousands of shops across the country and noting down the prices of specific items. There are upwards of 100,000 prices published every month, from more than 600 products.

The items that form the “official shopping basket” change each year to reflect how the purchasing habits of the population have changed. For example in March 2021, after a year of the pandemic, hand gel, loungewear bottoms and dumbbells were added, while canteen-bought sandwiches were among the items removed.

Where there aren’t the exact equivalent items available at a survey shop, ONS officials pick the best alternative and note that they’ve done this so it’s weighted correctly when the averages are worked out.

Shops are weighted as well, so the price in a major chain supermarket will have a greater impact on the average than an independent corner shop.

We will be updating these figures each month while the cost of living crisis continues.

During the pandemic, more of the survey was carried out over the phone and work is ongoing to digitise the system to be able to take in more price points by getting data from supermarket receipts, rather than making personal visits.


Data journalists: Daniel Dunford, Amy Borrett, Ben van der Merwe, Joely Santa Cruz and Saywah Mahmood
Interactive: Ganesh Rao
Design: Phoebe Rowe, Brian Gillingham


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open-source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Inflation rises for second month in a row

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Inflation rises for second month in a row

Inflation has risen for the second month in a row, according to official figures.

The overall rate of price rises – as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) – grew by 2.6% in November, a significant rise.

It’s a further move away from the Bank of England‘s target 2% inflation rate after the rate ticked up to 2.3% in October, the first increase in three months.

 

This is due to the higher cost of clothing, petrol and diesel, compared to last year, the ONS said.

Costlier tobacco products elevated through higher tobacco duty announced in the October budget also contributed.

Acting to slow price rises were plane tickets, which had the largest drop in the month since records began.

While the main measure of inflation, CPI, was as economists expected, other measures were lower than forecast.

A look behind the headline figure

Another important measure of inflation watched by the rate-setters at the Bank is core inflation, which measures price rises but excludes food and energy costs as they’re liable to sharply fall or rise.

Core inflation rose to 3.5%, less than the 3.6% anticipated by economists polled by Reuters.

Similarly, services inflation, which is impacted by rising wages, remained at 5% despite a forecast rise.

While the 2.6% figure was expected by economists, it is above the 2.4% rate the Bank had predicted.

What does it mean for interest rates?

Borrowing costs were already deemed unlikely to be changed by the Bank at their next meeting on Thursday.

But the likelihood of a February interest rate cut is now higher. Traders are pricing in a 53% chance of a drop at the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting after next.

Before this morning’s inflation announcement that was a 48% chance.

In response to the data Chancellor Rachel Reeves said: “Today’s figures are a reminder that for too long the economy has not worked for working people”.

“At the budget we protected [working people’s] payslips with no rise in their national insurance, income tax or VAT, boosted the national living wage by £1,400 and froze fuel duty.

“Since we arrived real wages have grown at their fastest in three years. That’s an extra £20 a week after inflation. But I know there is more to do.”

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