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DALLAS — The enormity of Juan Soto‘s contract — stretching 15 years and guaranteeing $765 million, not a penny of which is deferred — brought an initial jolt to Major League Baseball’s winter meetings on Sunday night. It was monumental and far-reaching, but it was also an outlier, given the uniqueness of landing one of history’s greatest hitters in his mid-20s. As the days passed, subsequent transactions took place and the offseason began to round into form, a more revealing trend emerged at the sprawling Hilton hotel that hosted baseball’s annual gathering earlier this week.

A prominent agent expressed it succinctly on Tuesday night, in the middle of an emptying lobby after a dizzying round of transactions.

“Man,” he said, “starting pitchers are getting paid.”

Hours earlier, Max Fried signed an eight-year, $218 million deal with the New York Yankees, blowing away the most reputable projections. Later, Nathan Eovaldi secured a three-year, $75 million contract to return to the Texas Rangers, more than doubling the guarantee of his prior deal in his mid-30s. And just a day prior, Alex Cobb, a 37-year-old who made three starts while dealing with a litany of injuries last season, cost the Detroit Tigers $15 million on a one-year deal — a sign that it wasn’t just the top starters getting paid, but the innings-eaters and the reclamation projects, too, age be damned.

Fried, Eovaldi and Cobb followed a path that had already been laid out by the likes of Blake Snell (five years, $182 million with the Los Angeles Dodgers), Luis Severino (three years, $67 million with the Athletics) and Matthew Boyd (two years, $29 million with the Chicago Cubs). All of them did better than expected. All of them triggered a fundamental question:

Why, at a time when starting pitchers have never been counted on less, are they more expensive than ever?

Executives, agents and coaches surveyed in the 72 hours that encompassed baseball’s winter meetings brought up an assortment of theories.

One general manager noted that starting pitchers who can consistently tackle five to six innings and 160 or so over the course of a six-month season aren’t any less important, even in an era of heavy bullpen usage — they’re simply more rare, triggering the type of demand that can escalate prices. Another pointed to the impact of big-market teams chasing top-tier free agents and how that has affected those below them. Another pointed specifically to the New York Mets, who handed Soto a record-breaking contract but might have set a tone in a different way — by signing Frankie Montas earlier this month to a two-year, $34 million deal that was viewed in some circles as an overpay.

But most of the conversations came back to the rapid rate of arm injuries that have plagued the industry and made teams hyper-paranoid about their starting pitching depth.

These days, even more so than before, enough is never enough.

“Teams used to feel good if they could go into a season with, I’d say, seven or eight guys they can count on to start games at the major league level, at least in some capacity,” said one front office executive. “Now that number is like 11.”

The approach taken by two of the sport’s most successful franchises illustrates that.

The Yankees already boasted a solid fivesome of Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón, Luis Gil, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt — but Fried was their obvious pivot after missing out on Soto, enough to cross a $200 million threshold few foresaw for the soon-to-be-31-year-old left-hander. The Dodgers, who beat the Yankees in the World Series, were set to return a rotation composed of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Shohei Ohtani, Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, while backed by a pitching pipeline that has become the envy of the sport — and yet they zeroed in on Snell at the onset of the offseason.

“I know that as a team, we’ve felt it more acutely,” said Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes, whose club suffered through an array of pitching injuries in 2024. “You feel like you have depth coming in, and sometimes it maintains and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s a little scary of an unknown.”

The increase in pitcher injuries has been raising alarm bells for the better part of a decade, but a presentation at this week’s winter meetings placed that in a new light. The sport’s 30 managers gathered in a conference room on Wednesday morning as MLB officials guided them through key findings from a yearlong study of pitcher injuries that involved input from more than 200 experts in a variety of roles. One of the slides showed that surgeries to repair damaged ulnar collateral ligaments at the minor league level had basically doubled over the past 10 years. Not only are current major league pitchers breaking down, so is the foundation behind them.

Said one manager in attendance: “It was stunning.”

The trade market hadn’t reached full tilt by the time most of the industry’s agents and executives boarded their flights back home on Wednesday afternoon. But the expectation was that it would soon pick up, particularly as it relates to starting pitchers. Teams seeking alternatives to the higher free agent prices have expressed interest in Dylan Cease, Pablo López, Framber Valdez, Jesús Luzardo and Luis Castillo, names that should gain more traction after Chicago White Sox ace Garrett Crochet was dealt to the Boston Red Sox for an impressive haul of prospects.

Two of the Red Sox’s division rivals, the Baltimore Orioles and the Toronto Blue Jays, are still searching for frontline starting pitching. So are the Mets and the San Francisco Giants, two of the offseason’s busiest teams. So are many others.

A dozen starting pitchers have signed for a combined $788.5 million through the first five weeks of this offseason, already about 63% of the spending in that department from last year — with Corbin Burnes still expected to exceed $200 million and Jack Flaherty, Sean Manaea, Nick Pivetta, Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander among the roughly 75 other starters available. And though the player pool is widely considered to be better than it was a year ago, and many executives will caution that early deals tend to be inflated, setting up the possibility that those who remain don’t do so well, one thing is clear:

Starting pitching, famously out of vogue in the modern game, is still at a premium.

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Notre Dame could have ‘gone sideways,’ instead it’s still fighting

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Notre Dame could have 'gone sideways,' instead it's still fighting

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — On Sept. 7, Notre Dame fell to Northern Illinois, a 28-point underdog, in one of the most stunning defeats in the program’s storied history.

The then-No. 5 Fighting Irish not only lost to the Huskies at home, but they were manhandled by a Mid-American Conference program that had never beaten an AP top-10 opponent. Northern Illinois outgained the Irish 388-286 in total yardage, converted twice as many first downs, allowed just two plays longer than 19 yards and blocked two field goals.

For the Fighting Irish, who had won 23-13 at Texas A&M in their opener a week before, their season could have been over as it barely started.

“It could have gone sideways fast,” Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden said.

Four months later, the Fighting Irish are somehow one victory away from capturing their first national championship in 36 years.

Notre Dame defeated Penn State 27-24 on Mitch Jeter‘s 41-yard field goal with seven seconds left in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl on Thursday night.

The No. 7 Fighting Irish will play the winner of Friday’s other semifinal between No. 5 Texas and No. 8 Ohio State at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic in the Jan. 20 CFP National Championship presented by AT&T.

The team that couldn’t beat a four-touchdown underdog at home has now won 13 consecutive games — with a chance for one more, the biggest of them all.

“I often tell them, in your lowest moments you find out the most about yourself,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said. “We’ve had low moments, but we had a really low moment Week 2, and these guys battled. We’ve got great leaders. We’ve got great players that chose to put this university and this football program in front of themselves.”

Notre Dame’s coaches and players credit Freeman, who turned 39 at midnight after the game, with keeping the Irish on track after their stunning loss to Northern Illinois. It was an arduous task for a former defensive coordinator who had never been a head coach until he was promoted on Dec. 3, 2021, to replace Brian Kelly, who left for LSU.

“He handled it magnificently,” Golden said. “Just being in that situation, being in that chair like that, that’s tough. There’s no escape from it, but it never got to the locker room. It never got to the team meeting room. He handled all the stress and all the pressure internally, and was the leader that we all needed at that moment.”

Freeman didn’t want the Fighting Irish to wipe the pain of losing to Northern Illinois from their memory. He wanted them to embrace the adversity to remember that they can never take anything for granted.

Freeman’s message to his team was simple: Keep the pain. Don’t let it go.

“I think it really caused us to lock the locker room door and say, ‘Hey, it’s just us. The people in this room are the only things that matter,'” linebacker Jack Kiser said. “I think Coach Freeman’s message and mentality through the rest of the year kind of echoed that.”

The day after the loss to Northern Illinois, defensive tackle Howard Cross III huddled with Freeman and quarterback Riley Leonard.

“It’s the second game of the season,” Cross told them. “I’m not going to go belly up in the second game of the season. We need to keep pushing.”

The Irish won their next 12 games by an average of 27.5 points. Only one of them, a 31-24 victory over Louisville, was decided by fewer than 10.

After reaching the CFP, Notre Dame defeated Indiana 27-17 in a first-round game on Dec. 20, then Georgia 23-10 in a quarterfinal game at the Allstate Sugar Bowl on Jan. 2.

“I think you learn the most about your team and the guys around you at the lowest points, and we showed who we were after that game,” said receiver Jordan Faison. “After that loss, it was devastating. Everyone felt bad about it, but being able to bounce back kind of shows the team and the grit we’ve got.”

The scar tissue from 124 days ago is what helped the Irish overcome season-ending injuries to several of their best players, including All-American cornerback Benjamin Morrison and star pass rusher Rylie Mills.

It’s what helped them overcome injuries in their victory over Penn State. With the Irish trailing 10-0 late in the first half, Leonard had to leave the game after he was hit by defensive tackle Dvon J-Thomas on an incomplete pass. They lost two starting offensive linemen, left tackle Anthonie Knapp and right guard Rocco Spindler, to injuries as well.

While Leonard was being examined for a potential concussion, backup quarterback Steve Angeli came off the bench and led the Irish on a 13-play scoring drive. Jeter kicked a 41-yard field goal on the final play of the half to make it 10-3.

Angeli had attempted only 28 passes this season before Thursday. He completed 6 of 7 attempts for 44 yards on his lone possession.

“We had a lot of confidence in Steve and what he can do, and we weren’t just going to put him in there to hand the ball off,” Freeman said. “We were going to go to try to score, and we ended up scoring three points.”

Leonard cleared concussion protocol at halftime and returned in the second half. He scored on a 3-yard run on the opening drive to tie the score at 10.

The Irish went ahead 17-10 on Jeremiyah Love‘s 2-yard run on the third play of the fourth quarter. But then Penn State tied the score on Nicholas Singleton’s 7-yard run with 10:20 to play.

After Leonard threw his second interception on the next play, Singleton scored again to give the Nittany Lions a 24-17 lead with 7:55 to play.

With less than five minutes remaining, Leonard threw a 54-yard touchdown to Jaden Greathouse, who was wide open after cornerback Cam Miller fell down. Greathouse juked safety Jaylen Reed and ran into the end zone to tie the score at 24.

Leonard completed 15 of 23 passes for 223 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. He led the Irish on four scoring drives in the second half.

“He’s a competitor, and competitors find a way to win, and that’s what Riley does,” Freeman said. “That’s what this team does.”

It seemed like the game was headed to overtime after both teams punted in the final minutes.

But with 35 seconds left, Penn State quarterback Drew Allar tried to throw a pass away. Safety Jaylen Sneed hit Allar as he threw, and cornerback Christian Gray intercepted the ball at the Penn State 42 to set up Jeter’s winning field goal.

“That’s what Christian Gray does,” Freeman said. “He makes plays when it matters the most.”

The Fighting Irish will have to make a few more big plays against Ohio State or Texas if they’re going to win their first national championship since 1988. They’ll likely be underdogs in Atlanta, especially if they’re playing the high-powered Buckeyes, but they wouldn’t have it any other way.

“To see how far we’ve come after the hiccup early on, just to know that we have one more guaranteed, one last one guaranteed, it’s just so exciting,” Kiser said.

The Fighting Irish believe they wouldn’t be playing for a national title if they hadn’t been tested like few other teams.

The team that wouldn’t quit somehow keeps winning.

“The time you’re tested the most is when you’re at your lowest point,” Freeman said. “We lose to Northern Illinois and you’ve got a decision: Do I want to be selfless, or am I going to put individual glory ahead of myself? I hope the nation sees no matter what the situation was, this team continues to put Notre Dame in front of [itself].”

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Notre Dame outduels Penn St. to reach CFP final

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Notre Dame outduels Penn St. to reach CFP final

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Penn State quarterback Drew Allar said he was trying to throw the ball into the ground. Notre Dame defensive back Christian Gray dove for it anyway and — luck of the Irish — the ball ended up right in his hands.

A few seconds later, Gray and Notre Dame found themselves with a spot in the national title game after a thrill-a-minute 27-24 victory over Penn State on Thursday night in the Orange Bowl.

Gray’s snag of Allar’s ill-advised pass across the middle at the Nittany Lions’ 42 with 33 seconds left set up a 19-yard drive that ended with Mitch Jeter‘s winning 41-yard field goal.

The Irish (14-1), seeded seventh in this, the first 12-team college playoff, will have a chance to bring their 12th title and first since 1988 back under the Golden Dome with a game Jan. 20 in Atlanta. Their opponent will be the winner Friday night of the Texas-Ohio State semifinal in the Cotton Bowl.

“Just catch the ball. Just catch the ball,” Gray said about his interception. “That was going through my mind, and I knew I was going to make a play.”

Allar explained he saw his first two options covered on the play, then wanted to throw the ball into the turf. But the throw, under pressure and across his body, didn’t have enough zip on it to reach either receiver Omari Evans or the ground before Gray slid in.

“Honestly, I was trying to throw it at his feet,” said the junior quarterback, considered by some to be a first-round pick if he leaves for the NFL. “I should’ve thrown it away when I saw the first two progressions were not open. I didn’t execute.”

It was the most memorable play of a game that was the best of what has been a sleepy few weeks of playoff football. It featured three ties, three lead changes and 31 points in the fourth quarter alone.

In the final, Irish coach Marcus Freeman will try to become the first Black head coach to win the title at college football’s highest level. Freeman, whose mother is South Korean, also is the first coach of Asian heritage to get this far.

“We found a way to make a play when it mattered the most,” Freeman said. “In my opinion, great teams, great programs, find a way to do that.”

Penn State coach James Franklin fell to 4-20 with the Nittany Lions against teams ranked in the AP Top 10.

“Everyone wants to look at a specific play,” Franklin said. “But there’s probably eight to 12 plays in that game that could have made a difference. I’m not going to call out specific plays or specific players. There are a ton of plays where we could have done better.”

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard shook off a hit late in the second quarter that sent him to the medical tent to be checked for a concussion. He came back and led the Irish on four scoring drives in the second half, including the last one.

“He’s a competitor and competitors find a way to win, and that’s what Riley does,” Freeman said. “That’s what this team does.”

Leonard finished with 223 yards passing, including a key 10-yard dart to Jaden Greathouse to convert third-and-3 on the last drive. Leonard also had 35 yards rushing, and passed and ran for a score each.

With 4:38 left in the game, the senior quarterback hit Greathouse for a 54-yard score to tie it at 24 after a defender slipped.

The game started slow, but Riley’s injury injected life into things. He led Notre Dame on TD drives of 75 and 72 yards in the third quarter to take a 17-10 lead.

At that point, the fun was just getting started.

Penn State had its chances, and Allar, along with all those Nittany Lions fans, will spend the offseason reliving that last throw — or trying to forget it.

Penn State forced a Notre Dame punt and looked assured of at least going to overtime when it took over at their 15 with 47 seconds left.

After a gain of 13, Allar dropped to pass and had pressure coming. He threw across his body to the middle of the field, where Gray dove for the pick.

A review showed it was a catch, and the Irish were onto the next step on a road that looked all but impossible when they fell 16-14 to Northern Illinois back in September.

Nick Singleton ran for 84 yards and all three Penn State touchdowns. Off target for much of the day, Allar finished 12 for 23 for 135 yards with the interception.

“He’s hurting right now. He should be. We’re all hurting,” Franklin said.

The quarterback didn’t duck questions about the play or his role in the loss.

“We didn’t win the game so it wasn’t good enough, it’s plain and simple,” Allar said. “I’ll try to learn from it, do everything in my power to get better and just grow from it.”

When Leonard went out, backup Steve Angeli came in and injected life into the Fighting Irish offense on the way to its first score.

Angelli went 6 for 7 for 44 yards and moved Notre Dame to field goal range to trim its deficit to 10-3 just before halftime.

“We have a lot of confidence in Steve,” Freeman said when asked why he allowed the Irish to play aggressively when he entered.

The kickoff temperature was 56 degrees, unseasonably cool for South Florida — and making it the second-coldest Orange Bowl ever, next to the Georgia Tech-Iowa game in 2010 that started at 49 and felt like the upper 30s.

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Horns’ Ewers leads ‘new era’ of college football

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Horns' Ewers leads 'new era' of college football

ARLINGTON, Texas — Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said Thursday that quarterback Quinn Ewers, with the emergence of name, image and likeness and the transfer portal, has become the face of this “new era of college football.”

Ewers initially committed to Texas, but he then opted to skip his senior year of high school and reclassify to the 2021 recruiting class before enrolling a year early and joining Ohio State during preseason practice.

Still the nation’s No. 1 ranked overall prospect, Ewers landed one of the first marquee NIL deals worth $1.4 million.

Ewers, who lasted one season with the Buckeyes before transferring to Texas, will square off against Ohio State on Friday night in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl with a trip to the College Football Playoff national championship on the line.

“It’s not been an easy journey for him,” Sarkisian said Thursday. “There’s been ups, there’s been downs, there’s been injuries, there’s been great moments, there’s been tough moments. … But at the end of the day, he’s always stayed true to who he is. The guy’s been a steady sea for us.”

Ewers has been making college football headlines since Ohio State offered him a scholarship when he was just in middle school. This week, Buckeyes coach Ryan Day recalled meeting Ewers for the first time when he was an eighth-grader visiting a Buckeyes football camp.

“He was a boy at the time really, who just had a tremendous release,” Day recalled. “And I remember grabbing him and grabbing his dad and said, ‘Man, you got a bright future ahead of you. I don’t know if this is good or bad, but we’re going to offer you a scholarship to Ohio State.'”

C.J. Stroud, who has since led the Houston Texans to the NFL playoffs, emerged as a star quarterback for the Buckeyes then, prompting Ewers to transfer to Texas.

“Boy, it was strange how it all shook out,” Day said. “He decided he really wanted to play. And it was disappointing for us, but we certainly understood. From afar I’ve watched him. He’s a really good player. He comes from a great family, and he’s had a great career at Texas and a lot of people here still have good relationships with him and think the world of him.”

At Texas, Ewers has started in 27 wins and led the Longhorns to back-to-back playoff appearances. This season, he has thrown for 3,189 yards and 29 touchdowns with 11 interceptions.

Ewers noted that the “coolest part” of the NIL era is being able to provide for his parents. He has even hired his mom, making her CFO of his finances while giving her a salary.

“Which is nice just because all the effort and work they put into me growing up,” he said. “I mean, when we were living in South Texas, they both quit their jobs and moved up to Southlake [to support Ewers’ budding athletic career].”

Whatever happens in the playoff — whether it be a loss Friday or a national championship victory against the winner of Notre DamePenn State on Jan. 20 — Ewers’ career at Texas figures to be coming to a close.

Though Ewers still has one season of eligibility remaining, blue-chip quarterback prospect Arch Manning appears primed to finally take over in Austin next season.

Manning, the nephew of NFL quarterback greats Peyton and Eli Manning, who could become the No. 1 overall prospect for the 2026 NFL draft, has backed up Ewers for two seasons waiting for his opportunity. Sarkisian even momentarily benched Ewers in favor of Manning during Texas’ 30-15 loss to Georgia on Oct. 19.

Still, Ewers figures to have options.

ESPN football analyst Mel Kiper Jr. ranks him as the No. 6 quarterback prospect eligible for the upcoming draft. Rumors have also emerged recently that Ewers could put off the NFL for another year and transfer to a third school for millions more in NIL money.

Amid those distractions, Ewers has thrived in the playoff bouncing back from oblique and ankle injuries from earlier in the year to complete 69% of his passes with four touchdowns in Texas’ two victories.

In the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl quarterfinal, Ewers tossed 29- and 25-yard touchdown passes in the overtimes, lifting Texas to the 39-31 win over Arizona State.

“I’ve just been proud of him,” Sarkisian said, “because he’s found a source for him that has been a motivating factor, where he can play free and play loose and play confident.”

Ewers added that, whatever the future holds, even contemplating it now would be “selfish,” with a national title still in reach for him and the Longhorns.

“I owe my teammates the best version of me right now,” he said. “I can’t be looking forward or I’ll trip on the rock that’s sitting right in front of me. I’ve got to be locked in on what’s right here.”

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