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Jared Isaacman, Mission Commander, steps out of the manned Polaris Dawn mission’s “Dragon” capsule after it splashed down off the coast of Dry Tortugas, Florida, after completing the first human spaceflight mission by non-government astronauts of the Polaris Program.

– | Afp | Getty Images

President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to run NASA, Jared Isaacman, is a 41-year-old space enthusiast, who just months ago commanded the world’s first all-civilian mission to reach orbit.

He’s also a crypto billionaire.

Isaacman is the founder of Shift4, a fintech company that provides secure payment processing solutions for businesses. The company’s stock price has jumped almost 40% this year, lifting its market cap to $9.3 billion. Isaacman started the business in 1999 at age 16 and took it public on the New York Stock Exchange in 2020.

In a Dec. 4 post on his Truth Social platform announcing the nomination, Trump wrote, “Jared has demonstrated exceptional leadership, building a trailblazing global financial technology company.”

That success can be traced in part to a bold bet on crypto almost three years ago.

Inside Isaacman’s New York residence near Central Park, around a lofted conference room with glass walls that sits above the apartment’s living area, Isaacman and members of his executive team sat with Alex Wilson and Pat Duffy, two entrepreneurs who were in the final stages of selling their crypto donation marketplace to Shift4. It was early 2022.

With a whiteboard behind them, they spitballed on how blockchain-based technology could be applied across the payment company’s business.

Bitcoin had hit a record a few months earlier, jumping sixfold from the end of 2019 through the close of 2021. A range of digital tokens were delivering outsized returns. The market was frothy, spirits were high and meme coins were in their prime.

But while Elon Musk was touting dogecoin and money was pouring into nonfungible tokens (NFTs), Wilson, Duffy, and Isaacman were focused on a far less glitzy corner of the digital asset world: stablecoins.

Stablecoins are a subset of cryptocurrencies matched to the value of a real-world asset and are virtually synonymous with U.S. dollar-pegged tokens. Today, they’re collectively worth around $200 billion and are often used to move money across borders at a fraction of the cost of legacy payment systems.

Wilson, 31, said the group around the table at Isaacman’s house “all agreed it was more likely that stablecoins would become a regular medium of exchange than bitcoin or ethereum.” They wanted to build products that took advantage of blockchain but were token agnostic.

“We wanted to meet users where they were and equip our merchants to take payments in whatever ways their customers wanted to pay,” Wilson said.

In front of the whiteboard with marker in hand, Isaacman walked through ways crypto could be applied to the broader Shift4 business. Wilson said Isaacman has an uncanny ability to get in the weeds despite being the CEO of a company that now has more than 3,000 employees.

Weeks later, on March 1, Shift4 announced it had purchased The Giving Block, Wilson and Duffy’s company, and would pursue a “$45+ billion embedded cross-sell opportunity by bundling crypto donation capabilities with traditional card acceptance.” Shift4 paid $54 million and included in the deal a potential earnout of up to $246 million.

Shift4’s Pat Duffy and Alex Wilson

Duffy and Wilson are now helming Shift4’s crypto team. In October, they announced a Pay with Crypto service that’s being rolled out to all 200,000 of the platform’s merchants, making it possible to spend crypto at hotels, restaurants and stadiums.

“It’s the biggest step toward crypto payments becoming mainstream that the industry has ever had,” Wilson said.

Isaacman told CNBC in a statement he’s excited to see the original vision he discussed with Wilson and Duffy during the acquisition process “come to life at a time when crypto is becoming increasingly mainstream and gathering real momentum.”

Isaacman finds himself at the center of the action.

The crypto market, which was already red hot, has been on a more dramatic upswing since Trump’s election win in November, which came alongside congressional victories for pro-crypto candidates. Bitcoin topped $108,000 on Tuesday for the first time, up more than 55% since election night, and the overall market cap of tokens has soared past $3.7 trillion.

More institutions and retail investors have also been jumping in, thanks to the flood of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds that hit the market starting in January along with other options products that offer a new way to bet on the future price of bitcoin.

Early Bridge investor weighs in on $1.1 billion Stripe deal

Stablecoins have moved closer to the mainstream as well.

In October, Stripe agreed to pay $1.1 billion for Bridge Network, a stablecoin platform that’s trying to make it easy for businesses to transact using digital currencies. The deal was a big wake-up call for traditional credit card companies.

Visa and Mastercard currently dominate U.S. payments, accounting for 80% of all credit card volume in the U.S., according to data from the Nilson Report. Credit card networks charge a transaction fee to a payment processor like Stripe for using their so-called rails. The costs, which include a flat fee plus a percentage of each payment that can be up to 3.30% for American Express, generally get passed along to the customer.

New Stablecoin entrants

But with stablecoins, transactions can cost less than a penny and are virtually instantaneous. Emily Sands, the technical lead for Stripe’s data science team, says stablecoins are great for cross-border transactions, which are important to almost all of the company’s users.

“That’s really valuable to the Stripe ecosystem,” said Sands. “It’s not just for the cards network. It’s not just for the local payment methods. It can also be for crypto.”

Blockchain-based payments company Ripple just launched its own stablecoin, RLUSD, and crypto custodian BitGo plans to follow. Robinhood and U.K. fintech Revolut are reportedly considering similar moves.

Visa launches tokenization platform for banks

PayPal was relatively early to the market, launching a U.S. dollar-pegged coin called PYUSD in August 2023. PYUSD topped $1 billion in market cap in August but has since fallen below $500 million as competition for market share heats up.

Tether’s USDT and Circle’s USDC are the dominant stablecoins, with $140 billion and $42 billion worth of coins in supply, respectively, accounting for about 90% of the market combined.

Given their growing popularity, experts are eagerly waiting to see how the big credit card companies respond and whether they come out with their own coins.

In October, Visa announced the Visa Tokenized Asset Platform (VTAP) to make it easier for banks to launch their own stablecoins. Cuy Sheffield, Visa’s head of crypto, said the offering allows banks to issue and manage fiat-backed tokens.

Visa is “powering a lot of these capabilities for them,” Sheffield said.

In July of last year, Mastercard unveiled its Multi-Token Network (MTN), which facilitates payments of fully collateralized stablecoins as well as other digital assets over the platform.

Raj Dhamodharan, Mastercard’s head of crypto and blockchain, told CNBC that MTN is looking to bring crypto capabilities, including the programmability of digital money, to banks, which hold trillions of dollars worth of dollar deposits.

Bitcoin hits fresh record high after Nasdaq lists options on BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF

But stablecoin issuers have had their share of challenges. TerraUSD, or UST, and sister token luna collapsed during the crypto meltdown of 2022, wiping out billions of dollars in value and eroding confidence in the reserves backing certain stablecoins.

More recently, the Wall Street Journal reported in October that the Department of Justice is looking into Tether for possible violations of sanctions and anti-money laundering rules. A Tether spokesperson said at the time that the story was “based on pure rank speculation” and that it has “no knowledge of any such investigations.”

With more established financial players getting involved, the market is gaining broader credibility.

Ari Redbord, global head of policy at blockchain intelligence company TRM Labs, said stablecoins are the bridge between the crypto ecosystem and the traditional financial system.

“That’s why you see the leading fintechs — Stripe, PayPal, Visa and others — really leaning into the use of stablecoins,” Redbord said.

‘Huge growth story’

The crypto industry has lobbied lawmakers on Capitol Hill for years on stablecoin legislation that would offer safeguards for these dollarized digital assets and the companies issuing them. Coinbase founder and CEO Brian Armstrong, one of the industry’s loudest voices in Washington, told CNBC in September that the company has seen a lot of traction with stablecoins.

“Crypto started off as really focused on trading, and it’s now made a big shift toward utility, specifically payments,” said Armstrong. He said stablecoin volume reached $10 trillion last year, and that could double or triple this year, “so it’s been a huge growth story for crypto as people start to think about how to make the dollar faster, cheaper and more global.”

At Shift4, growth has continued through acquisition. The company bought German point-of-sale company Vectron Systems, Card Industry Professionals in the U.K., Canada’s Eigen Payments, and other payment firms in recent years.

Shift4 CEO on earnings, state of the consumer and crypto

Wilson said the company views stablecoins in the context of two different target markets. One group consists of people who have gotten rich in crypto and want to use their tokenized dollars “to charter a jet or helicopter,” he said. The other includes those who live in Latin America and Africa, “where people just want to spend stablecoins for daily payments because Visa and Mastercard adoption is low,” he said.

A survey conducted by Castle Island Ventures, Visa and other partners showed that stablecoins are a critical piece of economies in emerging markets like Nigeria. In countries “facing severe liquidity crunches,” stablecoins “allow individuals and businesses to access international USD payments without hard currency having to leave the country,” the report said.

Standard Chartered wrote in a recent report that stablecoins are currently equivalent in size to 1% of financial transactions in the U.S. and a similar percentage of foreign exchange transactions. As they gain legitimacy, a move to 10% is “feasible,” the bank said.

As Shift4 tries to position itself at the forefront of what it hopes to be a continued wave of stablecoin momentum, Isaacman is off to the public sector.

In addition to his career in finance, Isaacman has led two private spaceflights through SpaceX, in 2021 and 2024, commanding crews on multiday trips around the Earth. His spaceflight ambitions have fostered an increasingly close relationship with SpaceX CEO Musk, who became one of Trump’s biggest backers and is poised to have an outsized role in the administration.

On Dec. 4, Isaacman wrote a letter addressed to his “Shift4 Family,” telling investors and employees that until his appointment is confirmed by the Senate, he will remain as CEO.

“Shift4 has been my life’s work since I was 16 years old,” wrote Isaacman, who dropped out of school and built the company from his parents’ basement. “But it is my time to serve and give back to the nation that enabled me to live the American dream.”

Isaacman said his nomination to lead NASA “reflects my passion for advancing humankind’s reach among the stars, unlocking the secrets of the universe, and improving life on Earth along the way.”

Wilson recalled a dinner with Issacman in March 2022 after The Giving Block transaction closed. They were in Las Vegas, and Isaacman brought Wilson and Duffy to an Italian restaurant called Lago at the Bellagio on the eve of the announcement. Wilson remembers discussing what it was like when Isaacman started his business as a teenager.

“No one cares more and works harder than the founder, and it really shows with Jared,” Wilson said.

WATCH: The first-ever private spacewalk with Polaris Dawn Mission Commander Jared Isaacman

The First-Ever Private Spacewalk with Polaris Dawn Mission Commander Jared Isaacman

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Bluetti Earth Day Sale takes up to 54% off power stations, Lectric XP 3.0 cargo bundles from $999, Aiper solar smart pool monitor, more

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April 16, 2025

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Bluetti Earth Day Sale takes up to 54% off power stations, Lectric XP 3.0 cargo bundles from 9, Aiper solar smart pool monitor, more

Today’s Green Deals are being led by Bluetti’s Earth Day Sale that is taking up to 54% off power stations and solar generator bundles, like the one we’re seeing on the AC180 Portable Power Station that comes with a 350W solar panel back at its $902 low, among plenty of others. That’s not the only Earth Day savings, as Lectric switches to its holiday-themed sale with up to $654 in free gear accompanying e-bikes, adding cargo-capable packages to the XP 3.0 e-bikes starting from $999. We just spotted the first savings on Aiper’s new solar-powered HydroComm Smart Pool Monitor that offers 5-in-1 testing at $200 off, as well as the first of EcoFlow’s phase 2 Mega Sale flash offers that bundle either the DELTA 2 or DELTA Pro Ultra power stations starting from $849 and only lasting through the rest of the day. Plus, all the other hangover Green Deals are in the links at the bottom of the page, like yesterday’s second phase EcoFlow Mega Sale offers, the launch discount on Hiboy’s U2 Pro Electric Scooter, and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Bluetti’s Earth Day Sale returns the AC180 1,152Wh LiFePo4 bundle with a 350W panel to $902 low

Bluetti is launching its Earth Day Sale through April 27 with up to 54% being taken off its power station lineup, complete with bonus savings. One solid option for your upcoming out-of-the-house ventures is the brand’s popular AC180 Portable Power Station bundled with a 350W solar panel for $901.55 shipped, after using the promo code Earth5 at checkout for an additional 5% off. This package would normally fetch $1,499 at full price, with past sales, particularly Black Friday, having seen it fall to this same low rate. The savings are returning here with the hopes of helping you enjoy Mother Nature even more thoroughly at a 40% markdown, slashing $597 off the going rate and returning it to the lowest price we have tracked and can currently find. This price is also beating out Amazon’s pricing by $47.

Bluetti’s AC180 power station is a solid backup power option for camping trips, with it carrying a 1,152Wh LiFePO4 capacity that covers devices and appliances with its 1,800W output that can surge up as high as 2,700W if needed. There are 11 ports to connect to for off-grid power: four ACs, four USB-As, one USB-C, one DC, and even a 15W wireless charging pad. You can regain 80% of its battery in as little as 45 minutes when plugged into a wall outlet, or you can get that same recharge in 2.8 to 3.3 hours when utilizing its maximum 500W of solar input, with alternate options available via a carport or a generator. It’s rated for 3,500+ life cycles, meaning you could use and recharge it every day for over nine and a half years, at least, before having any concerns.

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***Note: None of the prices below have had the extra savings factored in, so be sure to use the promo code Earth5 at checkout to score the maximum savings!

Bluetti’s best Earth Day Sale camping companions:

Bluetti’s best Earth Day Sale road tripping companions:

Bluetti’s best Earth Day Sale work-from-home companions:

Bluetti’s Earth Day Sale on-the-go charging solution deals:

Bluetti’s Earth Day Sale solar panel deals:

You can browse the entirety of Bluetti’s Earth Day sale on the landing page here.

Lectric XP 3.0 e-bike

Load up and head out with Lectric’s cargo-equipped XP 3.0 e-bike bundles at up to $455 off from $999 in Earth Day savings

Lectric has switched over to its Earth Day Sale pricing taking up to $654 off its e-bike bundles, with its popular best-selling XP 3.0 e-bikes getting a mix of bundle options. You’ll find the standard models getting $295 in free gear at $999 shipped, while the Step-Thru Long-Range models are getting $355 in free gear at $1,199 shipped and the Black Step-Over Long-Range model getting the largest package of $455 in free gear at $1,199 shipped. These bundles would normally run you $1,294, $1,554, and $1,654, respectively. While these aren’t the largest bundles we’ve seen, they are providing the occasional cargo-ready add-on gear that is perfect for outdoor treks, especially while enjoying nature on trips. The $295 bundles offer the steel-encased front and rear cargo baskets, rear-view mirrors, a phone mount, and an accordion-style bike lock. From there, the $355 bundle trades the mirrors for an Elite headlight while the $455 bundle gives you the same with the addition of a suspension seat post and wide comfort saddle.

Lectric’s XP 3.0 models are the best-selling e-bikes in America, offering reliable commuting power alongside extremely affordable rates. The folding frames on any of these e-bikes house a 500W hub motor that peaks at 1,000W, delivering 20 MPH speeds unless you live within a state that permits the higher 28 MPH speeds.

The big difference between your choices here will depend entirely on just how far you need it to carry you, with its pedal assistance providing you with 45 miles of travel riding the standard models and up to 65 miles of travel riding the long-range models. And for when you’re not feeling like pedaling, there are throttles to go entirely electric, though keep in mind doing so will decrease your traveling range. Along with the free add-on gear, you’ll also enjoy some quality stock features, like the integrated rear cargo rack (which the basket attaches to), puncture-resistant tires, 180mm hydraulic disc brakes, an LCD display, and more.

Lectric XP 3.0 e-bike offers with up to $455 bundles:

Lectric XPedition 2.0 offers with up to $654 bundles:

Lectric XP Trike with $420 bundle:

Lectric XP Lite 2.0 LR e-bike offers with up to $365 bundles:

Lectric XPeak 2.0 offers with up to $316 bundles:

Lectric XPress 750 Commuter e-bikes with $316 bundle:

Lectric ONE LR e-bike with $220 bundle:

Aiper Smart Pool Monitor

Aiper’s solar HydroComm smart pool monitor provides 5-in-1 testing of your water with first savings at $300

Coming at us by way of its official Amazon storefront, Aiper is now offering the first chance at savings on its new HydroComm 24/7 Smart Pool Monitor at $299.99 shipped, after clipping the on-page $50 off coupon. Having been introduced to the world back at CES 2025 with a $500 price tag, this is the first chance at savings that we’ve seen, with Aiper’s direct site matching the deal, as well. All-in-all, you’re looking at a combined $200 markdown here that equips your pool with intelligent 5-in-1 testing that can run for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Be sure to head below to learn more about this device and check out the discounts we’re seeing on the brand’s robot pool cleaners.

There’s no more need to have several different testing kits for when you need to check the various levels of your pool once you’ve added Aiper’s new HydroComm monitor to the water. It provides 5-in-1 testing thanks to the advanced detection head, giving you accurate read-outs for your pool’s pH, ORP, EC, TDS, and temperature. What’s more, it comes solar-powered, so it can continue running for 24/7, ready to provide you the information you need, whenever you need it – and should there be any cloudy days where sunlight isn’t available, there’s also the DC port to plug it in.

Aiper’s in-ground pool cleaning robot deals:

  • Scuba S1: $580 (Reg. $700) | matched at Aiper
    • for pools up to 1,600 square feet in size
    • floor/wall/water line cleaning
  • Scuba S1 Pro: $950 (Reg. $1,200) | matched at Aiper
    • for pools up to 2,150 square feet in size
    • floor/wall/water line cleaning
  • Scuba X1 (newest model): $1,199 (Reg. $1,799) | matched at Aiper
    • for pools up to 2,150 square feet in size
    • floor/wall/waterline cleaning

Aiper’s above-ground pool cleaning robot deals:

Aiper’s other robot deals for all pool types:

EcoFlow DELTA 2 power station bundle

Cover campsite and home backup with EcoFlow’s DELTA 2 and DELTA Pro Ultra flash sale bundles starting from $849

For today only, as part of EcoFlow’s second phase Mega Sale that is running through April 25, you’ll find flash offers taking up to 52% off two varying backup power solutions, with the first being the bundled DELTA 2 Portable Power Station that comes with an expansion battery and a waterproof bag at $899 shipped or you can grab just the station and battery from Amazon at $849 shipped. The 3-in-1 bundle from the direct sale normally goes for $1,877 at full price, which we don’t normally see, as it’s usually the station and the bag that get bundled for $449 or $499 in these flash savings. Outside of these short-term discounts, the station and battery combo averages around $999 with the cuts, meaning you’ll be getting one of the best values while these deals last, regardless of whether you go with or without the additional bag.

A solid option to support you through outdoor travels as you enjoy the Earth’s bounty, EcoFlow’s DELTA 2 power station starts at a 1,024Wh LiFePO4 capacity that will instead be bumped to 2,048Wh thanks to the extra battery, and which can go higher to 3,074Wh with one more added on. It provides you with 15 port options with a steady 1,800W power output that will surge to 2,200W to meet larger appliance needs, bolstered by the X-Boost tech that also improves recharging rates. Plugging the station into a wall outlet will have the battery back to 80% in about 80 minutes, with it also accepting a maximum of 500W of solar input that can refill it in as fast as three hours time, with ideal conditions. With it rated for 3,000 life cycles, you can use and recharge the battery every day for over eight years, so with weekend or non-daily usage it will last you far longer.

The second of these offers gives you the brand’s more comprehensive and expandable DELTA Pro Ultra power station with a trolley for $4,799 shipped, coming down from $6,297 and $200 under the trolley-less offer from Amazon. This is the brand’s most expansive unit that you can invest in over time down the road, giving you a 6.1kWh LiFePO4 capacity to start with up to 7,200W of power output. Those numbers, with the addition of additional equipment, can go as high as a 90kWh capacity and 21.6kWh output with three inverters (stations) that are each given five batteries, which is great for folks looking for whole-home backup setups (especially if you have roof panels to regularly keep it all juiced up, though this will also require the brand’s Smart Home Panel 2).

Be sure to check out the full lineup of EcoFlow’s phase 2 Mega Sale, which is taking up to 65% off an expanded list of units from the first phase, complete with bonus savings and starting from $119 through April 25.

Best New Year EV deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.

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Tesla (TSLA) sales continue to slide in California

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36 mins ago

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April 16, 2025

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Tesla (TSLA) sales continue to slide in California

Tesla’s sales are continuing to slide in California. According to the California New Car Dealers Association, Tesla registrations are down 15% in Q1 2025.

California is the most important market for electric vehicles in the US.

While zero-emission vehicles account for only 8% of new vehicle sales in America, they account for more than 20% of new vehicle sales in California.

In terms of overall volumes, more than 28% of electric vehicles sold in the US are sold in golden state.

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Unsurprisingly, this made California a very important market for Tesla.

In 2022, Tesla held 70% of the electric vehicle market in California. The automaker’s deliveries peaked in 2023 in terms of volume, but its market shares slid to 60% due to more competitions.

Now, Tesla’s deliveries are going down in California, along with its EV market shares.

The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) reports that Tesla registrations were down 15% in Q1 2025:

Tesla registrations in the First Quarter of this year fell 15.1 percent versus year earlier, while registrations for all other ZEVs increased by 35 percent. Tesla’s share of the state electric vehicle market fell from 55.5 percent in 1Q ‘24 to 43.9 percent this year. An aging product lineup and backlash against Elon Musk’s political initiatives are likely key factors for the decline in Tesla BEV market share.

The performance was rough amid growing vehicle sales in California during the same period:

Electrek’s Take

The Model Y changeover certainly had an impact on these results as deliveries were 10,000 units lower than in Q1 2024.

But I would also expect Tesla to suffer from brand damage in California due to its CEO’s meddling in politics. The bulk of Musk’s impact happened in the second half of the first quarter with protests and boycotts following his inauguration salutes and DOGE mess.

Q2 is likely going to be a better test of Tesla’s performance following the brand degradation.

Tesla bulls are hoping that the new Model Y will help, but Tesla doesn’t seem to have a backlog of orders for the redesigned vehicle.

The automaker is going to need to deliver more than 50,000 units in California if it doesn’t want to keep sliding year-over-year in the critical EV market.4

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Elon Musk shut down internal Tesla analysis that showed Robotaxi would lose money

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4 hours ago

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April 16, 2025

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Elon Musk shut down internal Tesla analysis that showed Robotaxi would lose money

Tesla Robotaxi and robobus hero

According to a credible new report, Elon Musk has reportedly shut down an internal analysis from Tesla executives that showed the company’s Robotaxi plans would lose money and that it should focus on its more affordable ‘Model 2’.

In early 2024, we reported that Musk had canceled Tesla’s plan for a new affordable electric vehicle built on its upcoming ‘unboxed’ vehicle platform, often referred to as ‘Model 2’ or ‘$25,000 Tesla’.

Instead, Musk pushed for only its new Robotaxi, also known as Cybercab, to be built on the new platform, and replaced the plans for a next-gen affordable EV with building cheaper versions of the Model Y and Model 3 with fewer features.

This decision culminated a long-in-the-making shift at Tesla from an EV automaker to an AI company focusing on self-driving cars.

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We credit that shift initiated by Musk for the current slump Tesla finds itself in right now, where it has only launched a single new vehicle in the last 5 years, the Cybertruck, and it’s a total commercial flop.

Now, The Information is out with a new in-depth report based on Tesla insiders that describe the decision-making process around the cancellation of the affordable Tesla and the focus on Robotaxi.

The report describes a meeting at the end of February 2024 when several Tesla executives were pushing Musk to greenlight the $25,000 Tesla:

In the last week of February 2024, after a couple of years of back-and-forth debate on the Model 2, Musk called a meeting of a wide range of executives at Tesla’s offices in Palo Alto, Calif. The proposed $25,000 car was on the agenda—a final chance to air the vehicle’s pros and cons, the people said. Musk’s senior lieutenants argued intensely for the economic logic of producing both the Model 2 and the Robotaxi.

After unveiling its next-generation battery in 2020, Musk announced that Tesla would make a $25,000 EV in 2020, but he had clearly soured on the idea by 2024.

He said in October 2024:

I think having a regular $25,000 model is pointless. Yeah. It would be silly. Like, it’ll be completely at odds with what we believe.

The Information says that Daniel Ho, head of Tesla vehicle programs, Drew Baglino, SVP of engineering, and Rohan Patel, head of business development and policy, Lars Moravy, vice president of vehicle engineering, and Franz von Holzhausen, chief designer, all pushed for Musk to greenlight the production of the new $25,000 model.

Omead Afshar, a Musk loyalist who started out as his chief of staff and now holds a wide-ranging executive role at Tesla, reportedly said, “Is there a mutiny?”

The executives pointed to an internal report that didn’t paint a good picture of Tesla’s Robotaxi plan. The report has credibility as Patel commented on it:

We had lots of modeling that showed the payback around FSD [Full Self Driving] and Robotaxi was going to be slow. It was going to be choppy. It was going to be very, very hard outside of the U.S., given the regulatory environment or lack of regulatory environment.

Musk dismissed the analysis, greenlighted the Cybercab, and killed the $25,000 driveable Tesla vehicle in favor of the Model Y-based cheaper vehicle with fewer features.

The information describes the analysis:

Much of the work was done by analysts working under Baglino, head of power train and one of Musk’s most trusted aides. The calculations began with some simple math and some broad assumptions: Individuals would buy the cars, but a large portion of the sales would go to fleet operators, and the vehicles would mostly be used for ride-sharing. Many people would give up car ownership and use Robotaxis. Tesla would get a cut of each Robotaxi ride.

The analysis followed a lot of Musk’s assumptions, such as that the US car fleet would shrink from 15 million a year to roughly 3 million due to Robotaxis having a 5 times higher utilization rate.

They subtracted people who wouldn’t want to switch to a robotaxi for various reasons, arriving at a potential for 1 million self-driving vehicles a year.

One of the people familiar with the analysis said:

There is ultimately a saturation of people who want to be ferried around in somebody else’s car.

After accounting for competition, Tesla figured it would be hard for robotaxis to replace the ~600,000 vehicles it sells in the US annually.

Tesla calculated that the robotaxis would bring in about $20,000 to $25,000 in revenue at the sale and about three times that from Tesla’s share of the fares it would complete over their lifetimes:

The analysts figured Robotaxis would sell for between $20,000 and $25,000, and that Tesla could make up to three times that over the lifetime of the cars through its cut of fares. They added in capital spending and operational costs, plus services like charging stations and parking depots.

The internal analysis assigned a much lower value to Tesla robotaxis than Musk had previously stated publicly.

In 2019, Musk said:

If we make all cars with FSD package self-driving, as planned, any such Tesla should be worth $100k to $200k, as utility increases from ~12 hours/week to ~60 hours/week.

Furthermore, Tesla’s internal analysis pointed toward difficulties expanding into other markets, which could limit the scale and profitability of the robotaxi program. Ultimately, it predicted that it could lose money for years.

Electrek’s Take

For years, this has been one of my biggest concerns about Tesla: Musk surrounding himself with yesmen and not listening to others.

This looks like a perfect example. It was a terrible decision fueled by Musk’s belief that he was smarter than anyone in the room and encouraged by sycophants like Afshar.

Musk has been selling Tesla shareholders on a perfect robotaxi future, but the truth is not as rosy, and that’s if they solve self-driving ahead of the competition, which is a big if.

It’s not new for the CEO to make outlandish growth promises, but it’s another thing to do at the detriment of an already profitable and fast-growing auto business.

The report also supports our suspicions that the shift in strategy contributed to some of Tesla’s talent exodus last year.

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