How to Navigate the Era of Trump

Published

2 months ago

December 18, 2024

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Many friends of mine are pretty deep in the slough of despond. I occasionally plead with them to make their predictions of catastrophe less hopeless and categorical, but with less success than I wish. I respect their points of view but have decided to look elsewhere for advice, and so have turned to a different set of friendsthose sitting on my bookshelves.

Some of these friends have been with me for more than half a century; and they get wiser and more insightful with age. One of the first I turned to is only slightly older than I am: Motivation and Personality, by the academic psychologist Abraham Maslow. The book has a family history: Maslow summered at a lake in Maine in a cabin near one owned by my grandfather, a self-made shoe-factory owner who came to the United States with only the benefit of a grade-school education.

The story goes that Maslow was complaining about his inability to finish writing his magnum opus while surrounded by the clamor of kids and holiday-makers. After a couple of days of this, Sam Cohen turned to him, told him that writing was a job like any other, and that he had set aside an office for him in his factory, and then he ordered (rather than invited) him to go there and finish the book. Maslow did, and I have the authors inscription on the title page to prove it.

Read: A mindset for the Trump era

Maslow thought that psychology had focused excessively on the pathological; he was interested instead in what made for psychological healtha deeper and truer objective, to my mind, than the contemporary quest for happiness, which tends to be ephemeral and occasionally inappropriate to our circumstances.

Here are two relevant bits:

Since for healthy people, the unknown is not frightening, they do not have to spend any time laying the ghost, whistling past the cemetery or otherwise protecting themselves against imagined dangers. They do not neglect the unknown, or deny it, or run away from it, or try to make believe it is really known, nor do they organize, dichotomize, or rubricize it prematurely.

And then this:

They can take the frailties and sins, weaknesses, and evils of human nature in the same unquestioning spirit with which one accepts the characteristics of nature. One does not complain about water because it is wet, or about rocks because they are hard, or about trees because they are green. As the child looks out upon the world with wide, uncritical, undemanding, innocent eyes, simply noting and observing what is the case, without either arguing the matter or demanding that it be otherwise, so does the self-actualizing person tend to look upon human nature in himself and others.

This is, as Maslow says, the stoic style, and one to which a person should aspire in a world where norms are flouted, wild things are done and wilder said, and perils real and imagined loom before us. Maslows healthy individual has little inclination to spluttering outrage, which does not mean ignoring unpleasant realities. Just the reverse, in fact.

Having settled into that frame of mind, what about the matter of predicting Trump-administration policies? Another even older friend, George Orwell, speaks to that one.

Political predictions are usually wrong. But even when one makes a correct one, to discover why one was right can be very illuminating. In general, one is only right when either wish or fear coincides with reality.

This, I suspect, is going to be a particular problem in dealing with the world of Donald Trump. Neither widely shared hopes (that he will ignore Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump Jr., for example, and be more or less normal in most respects) nor fears (that hes going to do whatever he wants, including crazier things yet) will be useful guides. But, being human, we will make judgments constantly distorted by both emotions. Orwell has a solution:

To see what is in front of ones nose needs a constant struggle. One thing that helps toward it is to keep a diary, or, at any rate, to keep some kind of record of ones opinions about important events. Otherwise, when some particularly absurd belief is exploded by events, one may simply forget that one ever held it.

Useful advice from a man who confessed that most of his own predictions during World War II were wrong, although, as I know from experience, his remedy can be a painful corrective.

On what basis, then, should one attempt to predict Trumpian policy? A downright ancient friend comes to the rescue on this one:

Begin the morning by saying to thyself, I shall meet with the busybody, the ungrateful, arrogant, deceitful, envious, unsocial.

This, from Marcus Aurelius, the last good Roman emperor and a thoughtful Stoic philosopher, is not a bad beginning in looking at an administration that will have a few barbarians in it. He continues:

Whatever man you meet, say to yourself at once: what are the principles this man entertains about human goods and ills? For if he has certain principles about pleasure and pain and the sources of these, about honour and dishonour, about death and life, it will not seem surprising or strange to me if he acts in certain ways.

So much of the contemporary speculation about the administration depends on the distinctive personality of the president-elect and some of his more outr advisers and confidantes. But simply ranting about them does not help one understand what is going on.

One of the troubles with the anti-Trump camp is the tendency simply to demonize. Some demonic characters may roam about the administration, but we would be better off trying to figure out what makes Trump tick. In particular, that phrase about honor and dishonor is worth pondering. For a man in his eighth decade with remarkable political success to his credit, who has just survived two assassination attempts, honor in Marcus Aureliuss sense is probably something beyond owning the libs. More likely, Trump is looking to record enduring accomplishments, including a peace deal in Ukraine. Figuring out what he would like those to be, and in what way, is probably the best method of figuring out how to influence him, to the extent that anyone can.

Jonathan Chait: The bizarre normalcy of Trump 2.0

Let us say that we get better at training our judgments and anticipating what the administration will do and why. There may still be plenty of things to brood aboutthe possibilities of tariff wars, betrayals of allies, mass deportations, attempts to prosecute deep-state denizens, and more. Even if Trump himself may be considerably less destructive than some fear, the MAGA movement will be out there: acolytes looking for opportunities to exit NATO, ban abortion entirely, make getting vaccines through Medicare impossible, sabotage the institutions that guarantee free and fair elections, or simply grift and corrupt their way through ambassadorships and other high government offices.

For that, something more spiritual is indicated, and I find it in the Library of America edition of one of the previous centurys deep thinkers, Reinhold Niebuhr.

God, give us grace to accept with serenity the things that cannot be changed, courage to change the things that should be changed, and the wisdom to distinguish the one from the other.

Serenity will be something we will need in the years ahead. If you ask me, a well-stocked library will be of more help getting there than tranquilizers, wide-eyed staring at ones mobile phone, or scrambling to find out if an Irish ancestor qualifies you for a European Union passport.

World

Ukraine has every reason to be worried after Trump’s comments

Published

2 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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Ukraine has every reason to be worried after Trump's comments

You should always give peace a chance. That US President Donald Trump “thinks out of the box” is already the cliche of the moment.

And he may bring a fresh way of thinking and a new energy to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine where others have failed.

But there are some ominous signs already, bolstering fears Ukraine has been betrayed before the talks have even started.

Mr Trump could not bring himself on Wednesday even to say Ukraine and Russia were equal partners in any future negotiations.

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Asked if they were, he said: “Hmm, that’s an interesting question.”

The Ukrainians, he said, “will have to make peace”.

“Their people are being killed, and I think they should make peace,” he added.

More worryingly, he seems as prepared as ever to trust Vladimir Putin.

He seems happy to take the word of a man who sent agents to Britain to kill with chemical weapons, who lied repeatedly about his plans to invade Ukraine, and who has murdered in cold blood every rival who dared to challenge him.

“He insisted that if it (the conflict) ends, he wants it to end,” Mr Trump said, as if that was all there is to it.

“He does not want to end it and then go back to war in six months.”

In the same way, Neville Chamberlain returned from Munich in 1938 waving a piece of paper declaring “peace in our time” after winning what he thought were similar assurances from Adolf Hitler.

For Ukrainians, the parallels with 1938 do not end there.

They are being told even before negotiations start that they will have to give up some of their land that has been taken by brutal force.

Ukrainians compare that with Czechoslovakia being forced to hand over the Sudetenland to Hitler. Chamberlain believed that would be enough to appease Hitler. We all know what followed.

They have every reason to be worried.

There is nothing in what the Russian president has said to make anyone believe giving him a fifth of Ukraine will be enough to appease him either.

In fact, in speeches, he has been emphatically and explicitly clear time and time again. He wants all of Ukraine because he believes it is part of Russia.

And then he wants the security architecture of Europe refashioned.

And Mr Trump seems to be caving into Mr Putin on that as well, giving into one of the key pre-war demands he made in 2021 before invading his neighbour, the reduction of America’s footprint in NATO in Europe that was declared by US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth in Brussels yesterday.

Trump is surrendering much of the leverage he had over the Russians before talks have even begun. This is from a man who declared in his book The Art of the Deal that leverage is everything in negotiations.

“Don’t make deals without it.”

It is curious and inexplicable. Except that Mr Putin has always appeared to have some kind of hold over Mr Trump.

When they last met in Helsinki, the president sided with Mr Putin over his own spies on the question of Russian election interference.

As a spy in east Germany, Mr Putin was trained in KGB techniques of understanding your enemy and deceiving them.

He has used those skills all his career, not least with George W Bush who famously naively said: “I looked into his eyes and I saw a soul. I trusted him.”

If Mr Trump is persuaded to side with Mr Putin over Ukraine, a dictator will have been rewarded for invading his neighbour. Aggression will have prevailed.

A precedent will have been set that has alarming implications for other countries neighbouring Russia and further afield.

In the east, as he ponders how to seize Taiwan by force, China’s Xi Jinping will be learning lessons too.

The outcome of all this may well not be peace in our time. Quite the opposite.

UK

Una Crown: Man found guilty of 86-year-old’s murder after DNA found on nail clippings

Published

2 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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Una Crown: Man found guilty of 86-year-old's murder after DNA found on nail clippings

A man has been found guilty of the murder of an 86-year-old woman after DNA which matched his profile was found on her nail clippings.

Una Crown, a retired postmistress, was found dead at her home in the Wisbech area of Cambridgeshire on 13 January 2013.

She had sustained stab wounds to her chest, her throat was cut and her clothes set on fire.

Initially, her death was not considered suspicious by police, which prosecutor John Price described as a “grave error of judgement”.

David Newton, 70, was charged with Mrs Crown’s murder last year but he denied the offence.

On Thursday at Cambridge Crown Court, he appeared open-mouthed as the foreman returned the jury’s guilty verdict.

Newton was found guilty by a majority of 10 jurors to two after deliberating for 29 hours and 13 minutes.

John Payne, the husband of Mrs Crown’s niece, found her in her hallway on 13 January 2013.

He had driven to her address to collect her for Sunday lunch at their house.

Prosecuting, Mr Price told the jury that Mrs Crown was killed the day before and that male DNA matching David Newton’s profile was discovered by scientists in 2023.

The prosecution said the reason why Newton went to Mrs Crown’s home and killed her were “not matters that the prosecution need prove”.

But the trial heard the defendant was on state benefits in 2013 – his only source of regular income – and that he was “spending freely” on 13 January.

The prosecution also said money was missing from Mrs Crown’s handbag.

Detective Superintendent Iain Moor from Cambridgeshire Police said the force had apologised to Mrs Crown’s family for “mistakes” during the initial investigation in 2013.

Using a DNA testing technique that was not available then, police were able to “cast doubt on David Newton’s claims that he hadn’t seen [Mrs Crown] on the day, or days, before her death”.

“For more than a decade he thought he had gotten away with this most horrendous crime, but today’s result shows you cannot hide forever,” Mr Moor added.

Newton is due to be sentenced at the same court on February 14.

UK

Farage explores criminal claim over NatWest debanking

Published

2 hours ago

February 13, 2025

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Farage explores criminal claim over NatWest debanking

The Reform UK leader Nigel Farage is exploring launching private criminal proceedings against NatWest Group over the debanking scandal which resulted in the lender’s former chief losing her job.

Sky News has learnt that Mr Farage has instructed Chris Daw KC of Lincoln House Chambers to examine whether there are grounds for bringing a criminal case against the high street banking giant.

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The move appears to be deliberately timed to coincide with the publication of NatWest’s annual results on Friday morning, which will come just weeks before the government is expected to sell its last-remaining shares in the company, nearly 17 years after its £45.5bn taxpayer bailout.

Mr Farage confirmed to Sky News on Thursday evening that Grosvenor Law, which is acting for him in separate civil proceedings against the bank, had instructed Mr Daw KC to explore a private criminal prosecution, adding: “This is unfinished business.”

Dan Morrison, a partner at Grosvenor Law, said in a separate statement: “Mr Farage is concerned about possible criminal issues arising out of the bank’s conduct.

“We do not wish to provide further details.

“We have therefore decided to instruct leading criminal counsel.”

The debanking furore which claimed the scalp of Dame Alison Rose, NatWest’s former chief executive, in the summer of 2023 centred on whether the bank’s Coutts subsidiary decided to close Mr Farage’s accounts for commercial or political reasons.

NatWest initially claimed the motivation was commercial before Mr Farage obtained internal evidence from the bank suggesting that his politics had been a pivotal factor in the decision.

It sparked a firestorm under the then Conservative government, with Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the then prime minister and chancellor respectively, indicating to NatWest’s board that they had lost faith in Dame Alison’s ability to lead the bank.

Since then, the City watchdog has instructed banks and other financial firms to do more to ensure that parliamentarians, senior public servants and their families – known as politically exposed persons, or PEPs – are not treated unfairly.

Mr Farage’s decision to hire Mr Daw KC threatens a fresh escalation against one of Britain’s biggest banks at a time when some argue that he has become the country’s most influential politician.

He led Reform to a handful of seats at last year’s general election, while his party finished in second place in scores of other constituencies.

The Reform leader’s close ties to Donald Trump, inaugurated last month for the second time as US President, have fuelled the sense that he may play an even more crucial role in shaping the identity of Britain’s next government when the country goes to the polls in 2029.

A recent opinion poll for Sky News by YouGov put Reform ahead of both Labour and the Tories for the first time.

Since the summer of 2023, tentative discussions between Mr Farage’s legal representatives and NatWest about a possible settlement have failed to result in any financial agreement.

Mr Farage was expected to seek millions of pounds from the company, alleging that the debanking row had damaged his reputation.

Despite the threat of a fresh legal barrage from Mr Farage, NatWest – now run by Paul Thwaite – is in its most robust financial health for decades.

The government’s stake in the bank is now below 8%, and a full exit is expected during the spring.

A NatWest spokesperson said it did not comment on individual customers.