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Labour are on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War.

Sir Keir Starmer‘s party is now averaging just 26.6%, despite winning one of the largest-ever majorities five months ago.

Analysis of nearly 1,000 polls across 75 years found Labour are now 1% behind their previous end-of-year low in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn‘s tenure was dogged by an antisemitism row and leadership challenges.

The only other years to rival their current low were 1981, when the new SDP-Liberal Alliance upended politics, and after a decade of power in 2009, when the party was reeling from the recession and expenses scandal.

Labour are still leading the polls, but are now just 0.5% ahead of the Conservatives – well down on their 19% lead in January.

Kemi Badenoch‘s party has been practically stagnant for some time. It now sits on 26.1%, barely 2% above when Liz Truss resigned.

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Reform UK is several points behind on 21%, with the Liberal Democrats on 11.8% and the Greens on 7.7%.

The analysis for Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips calculated averages using the first and last 10 polls of each year (or first and last five before 1997, when polls were less frequent).

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The Labour Party’s current standing is a far cry from the 44% share it enjoyed in January.

Its 17.6% fall since then is the biggest calendar-year collapse in support ever recorded in UK-wide polls.

Only twice has a bigger drop happened more suddenly.

The first was Nigel Farage‘s start-up Brexit Party in 2019, which surged to first place in the European Parliament elections after weeks of Commons deadlock over negotiations.

Within six months, its support was largely absorbed by Boris Johnson‘s Conservatives.

Bigger still was the Liberal Democrat collapse of 2010 – its “Cleggmania” wave during the May election campaign evaporated weeks after becoming the unpopular coalition government’s junior partner.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

But history suggests all is not yet lost for Labour.

When they ended the year below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded more than 10% the following year.

And Margaret Thatcher recovered from a similar low of 27% in 1981 to win a 144-seat majority – though she was buoyed by the Falklands War.

Graphic for article on Labour’s polling collapse for Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

The year’s biggest winner by far is Reform UK.

Our analysis shows its more-than-doubling is the fourth-biggest jump seen in a calendar year in peacetime.

But with a general election still four years away, its challenge is holding on to that momentum.

No third party experiencing such a surge since the war has maintained its support beyond two years.

On the final Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will be joined by Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell and shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake.

Watch it live on Sky News from 8.30am, and follow along live on the Politics Hub.

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Texas Representative Gill under fire over late $500K Bitcoin disclosures

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Texas Representative Gill under fire over late 0K Bitcoin disclosures

Texas Representative Gill under fire over late 0K Bitcoin disclosures

Texas Representative Brandon Gill faces scrutiny after filing late disclosures for $500,000 in Bitcoin trades, as questions over timing and STOCK Act violations arise.

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Blockchain Group adds $68M in Bitcoin to corporate treasury

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Blockchain Group adds M in Bitcoin to corporate treasury

Blockchain Group adds M in Bitcoin to corporate treasury

Paris-based Blockchain Group acquired $68 million in Bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 1,471 BTC amid rising institutional interest in crypto treasury strategies.

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AI, robots, lasers and gap years in armed forces: Key details as UK to become ‘battle ready’

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AI, robots, lasers and gap years in armed forces: Key details as UK to become 'battle ready'

The UK must rebuild its military and get the whole country ready for war as the threat of conflict with a nuclear power like Russia or China is real, a major defence review warns.

It described what might happen should a hostile state start a fight, saying this could include missile strikes against military sites and power stations across the UK, sabotage of railway lines and other critical infrastructure and attacks on the armed forces.

Politics latest: Britain must be ‘battle-ready’, says PM

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PM challenged on NATO, defence and Gaza

In a devastating verdict on the state of Britain’s defences, the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) said today’s armed forces are “not currently optimised for warfare”, with inadequate stockpiles of weapons, poor recruitment and crumbling morale.

“The international chessboard has been tipped over,” a team of three experts that led the review wrote in a foreword to their 140-page document.

“In a world where the impossible today is becoming the inevitable tomorrow, there can be no complacency about defending our country.”

British soldiers from the 16 Air Assault Brigade training in North Macedonia. Pic: AP
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British soldiers from the 16 Air Assault Brigade training in North Macedonia. Pic: AP

Sir Keir Starmer, who commissioned the review, described a “new era” of threat that required a “new era for defence and security”.

“Every part of society, every citizen of this country, has a role to play because we have to recognise that things have changed,” the prime minister said.

The review made a list of more than 60 recommendations to enable the UK to “pivot to a new way of war”.

They include:

  • Increasing the size of the army by 3,000 soldiers to 76,000 troops in the next parliament. The review also aims to boost the “lethality” of the Army ten-fold, using drones and other technology.
  • A 20% expansion in volunteer reserve forces but only when funding permits and likely not until the 2030s.
  • Reviving a force of tens of thousands of veterans to fight in a crisis. The government used to run annual training for the so-called Strategic Reserve in the Cold War but that no longer happens.
  • Embracing new technologies such as artificial intelligence, robots and lasers. The paper said the UK must develop ways to defend against emerging threats such as biological weapons, warning of “pathogens and other weapons of mass destruction”.
  • The possibility of the UK buying warplanes that could carry American nuclear bombs to bolster the NATO alliance’s nuclear capabilities. The review said: “Defence should commence discussions with the United States and NATO on the potential benefits and feasibility of enhanced UK participation in NATO’s nuclear mission.”
  • The expansion of a cadet force of children by 30% and offering a “gap year” to people interested in sampling military life.
  • New investment in long-range weapons, submarines, munitions factories and cyber warfare capabilities.

General Sir Richard Barrons, part of the review team and a former senior military officer, described the vision as “the most profound change” to UK defences in 150 years.

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Strategic Defence Review: What does it mean?

But there were some notable gaps – likely caused by limited finances.

This includes only a brief mention of bolstering the UK’s ability to defend against cruise and ballistic missiles – a key weakness but one that would be very expensive to fix.

Earlier, Sir Keir said the review was a “blueprint to make Britain safer and stronger, a battle-ready armour-clad nation, with the strongest alliances and the most advanced capabilities, equipped for the decades to come”.

Defence Secretary John Healey, writing in a foreword to the document, said “up to” £1bn would be invested in “homeland air and missile defence” as well as the creation of a new cyber and electromagnetic warfare command.

The review was drawn up with the expectation that defence spending would rise to 2.5% of GDP this parliament – up from around 2.3% now – and then to 3% by 2034. The government has pledged to hit 2.5% by 2027 but is yet to make 3% a cast iron commitment.

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The reviewers said their recommendations could be delivered in 10 years if that spending target is reached but they gave a strong signal that they would like this to happen much sooner.

“As we live in such turbulent times it may be necessary to go faster,” the team said.

“The plan we have put forward can be accelerated for either greater assurance or for mobilisation of defence in a crisis.”

The review described the threat posed by Russia as “immediate and pressing”.

It said China, by contrast, is a “sophisticated and persistent challenge”.

It pointed to Beijing’s growing missile capability that can reach the UK and said the Chinese military’s nuclear arsenal is expected to double to 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030.

The other two reviewers were Lord George Robertson, a former Labour defence secretary, and Fiona Hill, a Russia expert and former foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump.

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The review team warned the post Cold War-era of relative peace has ended and a time of contest, tension and conflict has returned.

Adding to the pressure, the US – by far the most powerful member of the NATO alliance – is focusing more on the threat it sees from China.

“Changes in the strategic context mean that NATO allies may be drawn into war with – or be subject to coercion by – another nuclear armed state,” the review said.

“With the US clear that the security of Europe is no longer its primary international focus, the UK and European allies must step up their efforts”.

The review set out how defence is not only the responsibility of the armed forces because countries – not just the professional military – fight wars.

It said: “Everyone has a role to play and a national conversation on how we do it is required… As the old saying goes, ‘If you want peace, prepare for war’.”

Sky News and Tortoise will launch a new podcast series – The Wargame – on 10 June that simulates a Russian attack on the UK to test Britain’s defences, with former ministers and military chiefs playing the part of the British government.

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