Labour are on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War.
Sir Keir Starmer‘s party is now averaging just 26.6%, despite winning one of the largest-ever majorities five months ago.
Analysis of nearly 1,000 polls across 75 years found Labour are now 1% behind their previous end-of-year low in 2016, when Jeremy Corbyn‘s tenure was dogged by an antisemitism row and leadership challenges.
The only other years to rival their current low were 1981, when the new SDP-Liberal Alliance upended politics, and after a decade of power in 2009, when the party was reeling from the recession and expenses scandal.
Labour are still leading the polls, but are now just 0.5% ahead of the Conservatives – well down on their 19% lead in January.
Kemi Badenoch‘s party has been practically stagnant for some time. It now sits on 26.1%, barely 2% above when Liz Truss resigned.
The analysis for Sky News’ Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips calculated averages using the first and last 10 polls of each year (or first and last five before 1997, when polls were less frequent).
The Labour Party’s current standing is a far cry from the 44% share it enjoyed in January.
Its 17.6% fall since then is the biggest calendar-year collapse in support ever recorded in UK-wide polls.
Only twice has a bigger drop happened more suddenly.
The first was Nigel Farage‘s start-up Brexit Party in 2019, which surged to first place in the European Parliament elections after weeks of Commons deadlock over negotiations.
Within six months, its support was largely absorbed by Boris Johnson‘s Conservatives.
Bigger still was the Liberal Democrat collapse of 2010 – its “Cleggmania” wave during the May election campaign evaporated weeks after becoming the unpopular coalition government’s junior partner.
But history suggests all is not yet lost for Labour.
When they ended the year below 30% in 2009 and 2016, they rebounded more than 10% the following year.
And Margaret Thatcher recovered from a similar low of 27% in 1981 to win a 144-seat majority – though she was buoyed by the Falklands War.
The year’s biggest winner by far is Reform UK.
Our analysis shows its more-than-doubling is the fourth-biggest jump seen in a calendar year in peacetime.
But with a general election still four years away, its challenge is holding on to that momentum.
No third party experiencing such a surge since the war has maintained its support beyond two years.
On the final Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips of 2024, Trevor will be joined by Leader of the House of Commons Lucy Powell and shadow housing secretary Kevin Hollinrake.
Watch it live on Sky News from 8.30am, and follow along live on the Politics Hub.
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The new home secretary will host talks on how to stop people smuggling in her first major engagement in the role.
Shabana Mahmood will host the so-called Five Eyes security alliance, holding talks between counterparts from the US, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.
The security alliance discussion comes after an estimated 1,000 people arrived by small boat in Britain over the course of a single day, with French authorities saying 24 people were rescued while trying to cross the English Channel.
Ms Mahmood said the numbers, which take the yearly total to more than 30,000 in record time, were “utterly unacceptable” and that she expected migrant returns under a deal agreed last month with France to begin “imminently”.
Sir Keir will now be hoping to draw a line under the fallout of his former deputy’s departure, as well as a summer dominated by criticism of his government’s handling of the small boats crisis.
Ms Mahmood said the Five Eyes intelligence sharing pact would “agree new measures to protect our border”. The group will also discuss new measures to tackle child sexual abuse online, as well as the spread of deadly synthetic opioids, the Home Office said.
Ms Mahmood said: “Rebuilding our reputation on the world stage is how we tackle serious organised crime and secure our borders.”
“The Five Eyes might be drawn from different corners of the globe, but we are united by our alliance,” she added.
“As the security threats we all face become more complex and span continents, we are stronger and safer together.”
She will be joined at the talks by US secretary of homeland security Kristi Noem, Canadian public safety minister Gary Anandasangaree, Australian home affairs minister Tony Burke and New Zealand minister Judith Collins.
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2:08
What PM’s reshuffle reveals about his priorities
The Prime Minister has told his new ministers to “go up a gear” in delivering on Labour’s agenda, part of which now involves a toughened immigration policy as he faces pressure in the polls from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
In Ms Mahmood’s first full day in the job, she met the head of Scotland Yard to receive a briefing on the policing operation in response to protests in London.
“Supporting Palestine and supporting a proscribed terrorist group are not the same thing,” she said.
“An honour to visit Sir Mark (Rowley) and the Metropolitan Police to see them at work policing protests yesterday.”
Almost 900 people were arrested in central London at a protest against the banning of Palestine Action.
The leader of Britain’s trade unions is to accuse Sir Keir Starmer of failing to deliver the change Labour promised during the election campaign last year.
In his keynote speech at the TUC conference in Brighton, general secretary Paul Nowak will claim that for too many people change still feels like a slogan, not a reality.
After a troubled first year in government that has seen Labour lose support to Reform UK, Mr Nowak will warn the lack of change cannot continue and the government must deliver on jobs, public services and living standards.
And he will claim Rachel Reeves’ budget on 26 November must include windfall taxes on bank profits and gambling companies, a wealth tax on millionaires and the lifting of the two-child benefit cap introduced by George Osborne during the coalition government.
Mr Nowak’s speech comes just days after the unionslost their champion in cabinet, Angela Rayner, prompting fears among delegates in Brighton that the government is poised to weaken its flagship legislation on workers’ rights.
Image: Paul Nowak. File pic: PA
The Conservatives have responded to Ms Rayner’s demise by writing to the new business and trade secretary, Peter Kyle, calling on him to scrap the Employment Rights Bill, claiming it will reduce jobs and mean more red tape and bureaucracy.
But Labour is losing support to Nigel Farage’s party, not the Tories, and will also – potentially – to left-wing parties in future. And in an unusual move, the new left-wing leader of the Green Party, Zack Polanski, will also address the TUC later.
Labour’s election manifesto last year showed a black and white photo of a shirt-sleeved Sir Keir on the front cover with the single word “Change” in red.
In his attack on the government’s first year in office, Mr Nowak will say: “The Tories took Britain to the brink. That’s why last July, the government was elected on a manifesto that promised change.
“But we have to be honest – for too many people, change still feels like a slogan not a lived reality.
“This can’t continue. Throughout our history, we’ve been at our best when we’ve been ambitious for working people.
“So today, my message to the government is simply this.
“Deliver the manifesto on which you won a huge majority last July. Deliver good jobs, decent public services and better living standards in every corner of the country. Deliver the change people voted for.
“And show working-class communities whose side you are on.”
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Could Rayner come back?
On the budget, which Labour MPs believe will be crucial to the government’s hopes of recovery in its fortunes, Mr Nowak will declare: “Introduce a windfall tax on record bank profits and gambling companies. And back it with new taxes on wealth.
“If billionaires can afford fleets of private yachts. Day trips into space. Weddings that shut down Venice – they can pay a bit more tax.
“Do what’s best for those who go out to work, day in, day out, and still can’t get by. Deliver the Employment Rights Bill and deliver it in full.
“And make it clear – a Labour government will never stand aside and watch a child’s potential be wasted because of poverty. Lift the two-child cap, and give our kids the future they deserve.”
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TUC to govt: ‘Deliver on workers’ rights’
And on the issue set to dominate this week’s conference, workers’ rights, Mr Nowak will say: “The government has a manifesto promise to make work pay.
“Stronger rights at work are overwhelmingly popular with voters across the political spectrum.
“The public knows decent work is the best way to deliver the reset this country needs.
“The best way to improve living standards.
“And the best way to rebuild our communities hit hard by low pay and insecure work.
“So here is our challenge to government.
“Deliver that Employment Rights Bill in full and deliver the change you promised at the election.”
But the Tories’ shadow business secretary Andrew Griffith, in a letter to Mr Kyle, claims the bill will be deeply damaging to economic growth and reduce living standards.
“Rather than proceed at this time with a measure which on the government’s own impact assessment will reduce employment and growth, now is the time to put the national interest first,” he wrote.
“Any credible ‘reset’ of this government requires that this bill be shelved and the government look afresh at measures to promote the growth and competitiveness of the UK economy.”