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11 months ago

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In light of Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk’s support of ending EV credits in the US, many have said that this will somehow help Tesla against the competition. But it won’t, and here’s why.

This line of thinking seems to have become common in recent weeks, with the general public seeming desperate to tease some rationality out of the irrational choice of a business asking the government to make its products $7,500 more expensive.

The argument seems to go that because Tesla is the best at making EVs, and can make them with better margins than other companies, removing subsidies will reduce everyone’s margins to the point where they aren’t profitable, except Tesla, which means that all the competition will be taken out of the market and Tesla will be the only ones able to make EVs.

It’s a somewhat attractive argument for a long-term-focused investor who might feel attracted to the idea that Tesla will somehow become the only EV company, and who are bullish on EVs succeeding in the market no matter what happens, thus leading to the thought that Tesla will, in the long term, own 100% of the US car market.

But there are a lot of underlying assumptions here which seem unlikely to pan out.

A Tesla EV monopoly relies on lots of assumptions

First, this assumes that other companies will not invest in EVs if their margins falter. But we’ve already seen other companies invest money into EVs when they don’t have positive margins yet, because that’s how businesses work – when you invest in something new, you often take losses for a while before eventually reaping gains. This happened with Tesla itself, so we should not be surprised if it can happen with other companies.

Second, where is the money coming from? For startups, perhaps they will have a harder time finding money – unless they’re able to capture investors who are bullish on the future of EVs and willing to take losses, which Tesla has shown definitely do exist (especially in light of this very story, where TSLA investors are asking to have their margins cut based on a shaky premise that it will help the business).

But for big established auto businesses, the money for the EV fund is coming from… their gas car sales, which will continue, and whose profitability wouldn’t be affected by a change in EV credits (or in fact could conceivably go up, as removal of the EV credit means that gas cars could raise prices as TCO of competing EVs goes up).

Tesla, however, doesn’t have that other source of money. Its money comes from EV sales, and its margins have already dropped from their record highs at the peak of COVID-related auto supply issues. In Q3 2024, Tesla made $6,886 per vehicle – which I hope I don’t need to remind the reader is a smaller number than $7,500.

Now, not all of Tesla’s vehicles come along with the $7,500 credit, so after taking that into account, Tesla would likely have still made money. But you can see how a drop of $7,500 worth of margin in most of the vehicles Tesla sells would cut profits by a lot – which means less money to reinvest in growth, less money to chase other pie-in-the-sky projects that are inflating the stock price right now, and less chance of Tesla becoming the sole EV provider for the Western world as some investors seem to think might happen.

And third, for this to be true then we must also think that people will accept a transportation monopoly long term. Not only do consumers choose non-Tesla EVs for many reasons – aesthetic concerns, brand loyalty, aforementioned distaste for Musk or Tesla, desire for certain features, etc etc etc – but we also like to say that a free market naturally abhors a monopoly, or that regulators will do something about monopolies when they crop up.

But the bigger problem here is: all of these assumptions focus on EVs, and not on Tesla’s real competition.

Tesla’s competition is gas cars, not other EVs

Besides, the whole thing is wrong to begin with about what Tesla’s “competition” actually is.

It’s common for people to compare EVs against each other, rather than against gas vehicles. This can be for several reasons – similarity, of course; the assumption that buyers have already decided on a powertrain and will shop within that powertrain, instead of cross-shopping; and perhaps aided by EV-focused publications like ourselves that tend to compare EVs against each other because, frankly, we don’t care about gas cars and see no reason anyone would should buy one, so why bother reviewing them when they’re all terrible anyway?

But the reality is that the vast majority of the US car market does not consist of electric vehicles. Nine out of every ten cars sold in this country are still powered by oil – but only about one out of every twenty cars sold in the US are EVs sold by a company not named Tesla.

So if Tesla wants to grow its sales, that 90+% of gas car market share seems like a lot bigger target than the ~5% – especially given that much of those 5% have indicated their disinterest in buying a car associated with Elon Musk.

So, how does increasing the price of the 5% of non-EV Teslas help Tesla at all, especially when Tesla’s prices would also go up? And when the vast majority of its competition will not go up in price?

Inevitably, this thinking only leads to a “big fish in a small pond” result, even in the most optimistic case. An EV market where prices all go up by $7,500 would inevitably shrink in the short term, but even if it didn’t, and if all other EVs were forced out of it (which is unlikely), Tesla would have access to 5% more of the market, not 90% more. Maybe that would be a nice change from Tesla’s falling sales in a growing EV market this year, but it’s hardly justification for a market cap that’s higher than the rest of the industry combined.

So even if all this magical thinking about a Tesla EV monopoly does turn out to be accurate, it still doesn’t represent a strike against the real competition for Tesla, nor does it target the part of the market that could result in real long-term growth for the company. (And ironically, the one place where Tesla could have had a near-monopoly is charging, where the charging team executed a coup turning the entire industry to Tesla’s plug… and then Musk swiftly fired everyone, causing total chaos and losing lots of talent to competitors).

But eliminating subsidies would help EVs… if gas subsidies died too

In the past, Musk has pointed this out and correctly said that EVs would be more competitive on price if externalities from gasoline vehicles were taken into account.

If you consider the cost of the pollution that gas cars produce (as we should), gas cars are tens of thousands of dollars more expensive over the course of their lifetime.

Some old-guard republicans have suggested a solution to this problem – putting a price on those externalities. There was at one point a bipartisan and revenue-neutral bill to solve this problem – but that bill is no longer bipartisan (as the republican party has fallen further into the grasp of an ignoramus), despite that a majority of Americans in every state support requiring fossil fuel companies to pay back this subsidy.

In Musk’s recent advocacy, he seems to forget half of that equation (just as he seems to have forgotten how climate change works). We have not seen him push for removing fossil car subsidies, just EV subsidies.

And Musk’s allies are also not talking about removing subsidies for electric and gas cars equally. Rather, they want to eliminate subsidies for the better, less-subsidized, cleaner option – EVs – and increase subsidies for gas cars – the dirtier, more-subsidized option.

So what Musk has proposed here is not only to make all of his own products $7,500 more expensive when compared to their direct competition, but his allies want to make the competition even cheaper, leading to a $15,000 swing in comparative pricing between the two. No normal business benefits from this (Veblen goods notwithstanding).

Tesla, for its part, even recognizes all of this itself. It has lobbied routinely for all of the incentives and regulations that are currently in place, it lobbied for the new EPA exhaust rule which Musk’s allies oppose (even though they have no idea what the rule is), and it’s currently asking other governments to correctly account for the costs of gas vehicles.

Finally, lest we forget, the company’s mission is “to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport” – not to drive other EVs out of the market and in the vain attempt to ensure that EVs remain a niche market that Tesla can dominate while gas cars are allowed to flourish with the support of a man whose money has effectively all been made by electric vehicle sales.

So, either all of Tesla is mystified by the inscrutable brilliance of its fearless leader Elon Musk and has been making poor decisions, throughout its entire existence and across its sales territories, all directed in the past by Musk himself, and only now has it started to recognize the genius behind making its products more expensive for no reason, but only in one market… or maybe, just maybe, this new idea to remove an incentive that has brought the company literally billions of dollars is actually just as idiotic as it seems on its face.

B… but… Elon’s not dumb though!

I believe that the reason people are twisting themselves into knots over this is because they just can’t believe that Musk would have such a stupid idea. They look at their past understanding of him as an intelligent individual and think that there must be some sort of secret plan.

But sometimes, a dumb idea is just a dumb idea. Lowering Tesla’s margins is simply not a good business move.

The fact that people think it would be is simply an indicator of just how detached from reality Musk and his ilk have become. This has been readily apparent for quite some time now – but, if you spend all your time on a platform where a chain of emojis passes for a clever idea and correctness is decided by whoever has more successfully weaponized their fanbase towards repeatedly clicking a digital heart on each of the myriad bot accounts they have access to, you might have missed it.

But that is indeed where Musk spends all his time, on a website that he wasted tens of billions of dollars of his and other people’s money on so that he could regurgitate whatever nonsense that passes through his eye-holes to a captive audience, shut down any criticism or truth about his allies, and otherwise trap himself into an echo chamber of his own design.

There, when Musk has a bad idea, he can’t be corrected, because he has isolated himself from anyone who would correct it. Instead, he only hears from people who think that he’s the smartest man in the world – and thus, that every idea of his must be good in some way. What a boost to the ego that must be.

So they will desperately reach for straws to find any sort of rationality in actions that are inherently irrational, and so easy to see that they’re irrational. And in a world where truth seems to matter less than ever and opposites are accepted as reality, you end up with a lot of people echoing the absurd idea that a business will benefit by losing money.

But it just won’t. So please, stop saying it will.

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Podcast: Tesla Robotaxi setback, Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more

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4 hours ago

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November 28, 2025

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Podcast: Tesla Robotaxi setback, Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more

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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss a big Tesla Robotaxi setback, the new Mercedes-Benz CLA EV, Bollinger is over, and more.

Today’s episode is brought to you by Climate XChange, a nonpartisan nonprofit working to help states pass effective, equitable climate policies. Sales end on Dec. 8th for its 10th annual EV raffle, where participants have multiple opportunities to win their dream model. Visit CarbonRaffle.org/Electrek to learn more.

The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.

As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.

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After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:

We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.

Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:

Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:


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Segway’s latest E3 Pro smart e-scooter hits new $500 low, NIU Black Friday EV sale (47% off), Anker SOLIX, Lectric, Aiper, more

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6 hours ago

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November 28, 2025

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Segway's latest E3 Pro smart e-scooter hits new 0 low, NIU Black Friday EV sale (47% off), Anker SOLIX, Lectric, Aiper, more


Today’s Green Deals is another jam-packed Black Friday edition, with all the ongoing savings we’ve spotted up until today having been collected into our Black Friday Green Deals hub here for your one-stop shopping needs. Our headliner is Segway’s new feature-packed E3 Pro Electric Scooter with Apple Find My that is down at a new $500 low, with NIU’s full Black Friday EV sale following right behind with up to 47% taken off e-scooters and e-bikes starting from $279. There’s also Anker’s SOLIX C300X AC Portable Power Station and a bundle option at new low prices starting from $160, as well as Lectric’s newly launched 40% off e-bike accessory sale + increased 30% off e-bike extra batteries, a smart irrigation system, a battery jumper/power bank combo, and much more waiting for you below. And don’t forget about the hangover deals that are collected together at the bottom of the page (and also in our Black Friday Green Deals hub), like yesterday’s expanded Rad Power Black Friday Sale lineup, the Black Friday savings on Anker eufy smart security devices at new lows, and more.

Head below for other New Green Deals we’ve found today and, of course, Electrek’s best EV buying and leasing deals. Also, check out the new Electrek Tesla Shop for the best deals on Tesla accessories.

Segway’s feature-packed E3 Pro electric scooter with Apple Find My hits new $500 Black Friday low (Save $200)

Segway’s Black Friday Sale is in full gear and currently seeing hundreds in savings and plenty of returning and new low prices on its e-scooters and e-bikes. One such standout is Segway’s latest E3 Pro Electric Scooter down at $499.99 shipped, and which seems to have disappeared from Amazon’s marketplace. Carrying a $700 MSRP since launching back at the top of October, we’ve only seen this model given $100 price cuts in its launch deal and the brand’s Halloween and early Black Friday sales. Now, with things having ramped up with increased savings now that Black Friday is in full swing, you can score a larger-than-ever $200 markdown to a new all-time low price, giving you an advanced upgrade to your commute that I have been loving so far since getting one a short time ago.

I’ve been riding around Brooklyn for a short time now with my own Segway E3 Pro Electric Scooter and have been loving my experience so far, as it’s a MAJOR step up from the very basic E22 model I’ve had for short travels since 2020. While power has been significantly ramped up from its E2 Pro predecessor, this new generation still retains a fairly lightweight 40-pound design, which I am able (as a not-so-strong person) to carry easily with one hand/arm up and down my second-story stoop.

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Segway’s E3 Pro comes bearing a 400W motor (with 800W peaking) alongside a 368Wh battery, the combination of which delivers up to 34 miles of commuting support for your travels at up to 20 MPH speeds. The regenerative brake paired with the brand’s SegRange Optimization tech really lends towards the extended travel times here, with safety taken into mind with the SegRide stability enhancement tech, the latest traction control system, turn signaling, RGB ambient lighting for nighttime journeys, and a bright headlight. What’s more, security is bolstered by the Apple Find My inclusion for those worried about tracking it down should theft (or forgetfulness) occur.

One thing I have really been enjoying, especially when riding over more pot-hole lined streets, is Segway’s E3 Pro’s dual elastomer suspension, which does a great job of smoothing out overall rides, while providing added cushioning when sudden, jolting sections of the road (or debris/trash) are driven over. Along with all those, there are also additional features, including the previously mentioned rear electronic regen brake getting a companion front drum brake, as well as 10-inch self-sealing jelly tires, an IPX5 water-resistant build, a 265-pound total payload, and a 3-inch full-color LED screen for setting adjustments.

Be sure to check out Segway’s full official Black Friday Sale while it lasts for a short while longer, which can save you hundreds at the best prices of the year starting from $150.

man and woman riding NIU KQi 200F electric scooters through streets in both day and night

Score up to 47% Black Friday savings on NIU EVs, like the 2025 KQi 200F e-scooter at its $529 low (Reg. $799), more from $279

NIU’s Black Friday EV Sale is in full motion now, taking up to 47% off its lineup of e-scooters and e-bikes, like the KQi 200F Foldable Handlebar Electric Scooter for $529 shipped, which you can currently only find in a used condition at Amazon. This is one of the brand’s newer 2025 models that fetches $799 at full price, which dipped down to this rate for the first time earlier in the month before these Black Friday savings. Now, you’re getting another shot at this all-time low price with $270 savings, giving you a solid commuter that sits among the mid-range models from NIU.

You can view the full lineup of NIU’s Black Friday e-scooter and e-bike deals in our original coverage here.

Anker SOLIX C300X power station charging drone and projector on rocks

Anker’s SOLIX C300X 90,000mAh portable power station + solar bundle option at new Black Friday lows from $160

As part of Amazon’s ongoing Black Friday Week Sale, and running parallel to Anker’s SOLIX Black Friday Sale, the brand’s official storefront is offering the C300X 90,000mAh Portable Power Station (misnamed on page as C200X) for $159.99 shipped. Normally going for $300 at full price, this alternate darker colorway beats out its standard grey colorway’s direct sale pricing by $40, with its Amazon pricing on that model also beaten out by the same amount. Discounts before October kept things above $189, with increased falls lower to 169 and $161 over last month and mid-way through this month, before this Black Friday deal dropped things to a new all-time low. Not only are you saving a total $140 here, but you’ll also be getting the best price tracked on the station’s 60W foldable solar panel bundle that’s down at a low of $240 shipped.

If you want to learn more about this model, be sure to check out our original coverage of these deals here, and be sure to also browse through Anker’s extended/expanded SOLIX Black Friday Sale in full here.

man and woman riding Lectric e-bikes
man holding Lectric e-bike battery
Aiper IrriSense smart irrigation system watering grass in yard
GOOLOO's GP4000 jump started connected to car battery

Best Fall EV deals!

Best new Green Deals landing this week

The savings this week are also continuing to a collection of other markdowns. To the same tune as the offers above, these all help you take a more energy-conscious approach to your routine. Winter means you can lock in even better off-season price cuts on electric tools for the lawn while saving on EVs and tons of other gear.


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Tesla has sold ~100 cars since entering the world’s largest country in July

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6 hours ago

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November 28, 2025

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Tesla has sold ~100 cars since entering the world's largest country in July

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Tesla’s much-awaited entry into the Indian market has resulted in very slow sales to start, but it may not all be bad.

We’ve covered the years-long effort of Tesla to enter the Indian auto market. There have been a lot of intentions and fits and starts, but due to protectionist schemes in the country it never made a lot of sense for Tesla to enter.

That changed this year in March, when India waived EV import duties, allowing foreign firms to bring their cars in for sale. While India does have some strong local brands in Mahindra and Tata, this opened the gates to Chinese, German, Korean and American brands – namely, Tesla.

So far, other American companies have declined to bring their EVs to India, but Tesla opened its first showroom in Mumbai, India’s most populous city and financial capital, in July of this year. It opened a larger “Tesla Center” showroom in Gurugram, outside Delhi, this week.

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So, Tesla is only getting started in India, but by all measures it has been an exceedingly slow start, according to the BBC.

Dealership data shows that Tesla has only sold “just over” 100 cars in India since July, an exceedingly low number by any measure – especially when considering the India is now the most populous country in the world, with a population of just under 1.5 billion.

Tesla’s rocky start included losing its head of Indian operations just before launching its first store, among a slew of other executive departures this year and last.

The numbers look a little less bad when comparing against EV sales in the country. While India has sold an impressive 2 million electric vehicles this year, the vast majority of them have been electric scooters.

Electric passenger cars are a much lower share at around 160k total unit sales this year so far, making up only around 3% of the passenger car market. And the majority of those are lower-cost domestic brands Mahindra and Tata or a growing section of Chinese challengers, with very few sales from overseas luxury brands.

Tesla could be included in that “luxury brand” list, largely due to the price of its imported vehicles. While the Model Y starts at $40k in the US, that price rises to 5,989,000 Rupees in India (~$67k USD). This is simply an unaffordable price for the vast majority of Indians – indeed, only around 1% of India’s auto sales are in the “luxury” category.

Further, EV infrastructure is not very well developed in the country. Tesla has one Supercharger in India, and two listed as “coming soon” in the Gurugram area. There are thousands of other charging points across India (and of course, drivers can charge overnight at home), but the number is still relatively low compared to the country’s population.

Meanwhile, other brands’ EV sales are growing well in India. The auto market as a whole has grown by about 13% this year in the developing country, but EV car sales have grown by 57% in the same period, rapidly outpacing the auto industry as a whole.

Much of that sales growth has been driven by Chinese EVs, which make up around a third of the market. That’s around ~60k Chinese EVs sold this year in India.

Even luxury German EVs from Mercedes, BMW and Audi have sold around 4,000 units so far this year, not a large number, but certainly dwarfing Tesla’s.

So while it’s tempting to look at Tesla’s poor numbers and make excuses about the size of the EV market, ability of Indians to afford luxury vehicles, or state of India’s charging network, it’s hard to compare that low ~100 sales number at any of the competition and label it as anything other than an extremely poor showing.

But, you do have to start somewhere, and the company is only a few months in. So we’ll have to see where it goes from here – though with the sales we’ve seen so far in Mumbai, entering the Delhi market is unlikely to forestall Tesla’s current global sales decline.

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