How BYU’s Jay Hill led the defense from the coaches’ box with his wife monitoring his heart
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Kyle Bonagura, ESPN Staff Writer
PROVO, Utah — For BYU defensive coordinator Jay Hill, the offseason carried a lingering sense of frustration.
After nine years as the head coach at FCS Weber State, Hill joined longtime friend Kalani Sitake’s staff at BYU ahead of the Cougars’ much-anticipated move to the Big 12. The season started promisingly, but after a 5-2 start, the Cougars lost their last five games to miss a bowl game and finished one game out of last place in the conference.
“We all felt like we were a better team last year than maybe the record showed,” Hill said.
With nine months between games, it can feel like there is too much time to stew over what went wrong, but as the offseason progressed Hill was encouraged. He saw players who were a little more disciplined, a little tougher, a little better with responsibilities.
Hill was working as many as 90 hours a week, and as training camp came to a close at the end of August, he believed the Cougars were prepared to take a significant step forward. And if they didn’t, it wouldn’t be for lack of effort on his part.
At 49 years old, Hill doesn’t lack energy. A former cornerback at Utah, he runs regularly, lifts weights with players, plays pickup basketball and — outside of a Mountain Dew habit — has kept a generally healthy diet. Last season, he experienced some unusual lightheadedness while running, but after getting checked in the spring, he was told there was nothing to worry about.
“They were doing a bunch of heart tests just to make sure that the blood was pumping and everything was going well,” Hill said. “And I did all those tests, and everything came back better than normal. I felt like I was in great shape for someone my age.”
All of that is a backdrop for what made Thursday, Aug. 29, so shocking.
The night before, he complained to his wife, Sarah, that he was experiencing heartburn. When he described a localized pain in his chest, she was skeptical, but he figured it was something that would subside with a night’s sleep.
It did not. After practice, he lifted weights with players. That didn’t help. Then he sat in a sauna. That made it worse. He went through with plans to get a haircut on his way home, and that’s when he finally let himself believe something might be seriously wrong.
“I just started sweating so bad that the poor girl that was cutting my hair grabbed a towel, and she was wiping me off,” Hill said. “I felt so embarrassed. And then she took the cape off me and my pants were just drenched.
“I was having a heart attack, and I didn’t know it. Right in the barber chair, I’m having a heart attack.”
BYU did turn things around this season, winning its first nine games and earning a spot in the Valero Alamo Bowl against Colorado (7:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC). And it did so with one of its most important assistants in the coaches’ box, monitored by his wife.
SARAH HILL WAS home when her husband called to tell her he was in bad shape and on his way from the barbershop. She told him to stay put, and she would come get him, but he insisted he could make the short drive.
They stayed on the line as Sarah tracked his progress with the Find My app.
“I kept trying to convince him to just pull over and I would come get him — and then he wasn’t able to talk,” Sarah said. “I said, ‘OK, if you can’t talk then I’m getting in the car and I’ll find you right now. I can see where you’re at. I’ll come to you.'”
At about this point, Jay turned into their neighborhood and made it safely to their house. He got out of his truck, made his way to their back porch and lay down.
“I knew at that point it was a heart attack,” Sarah said. “I knew that I had a short amount of time, but I also was very calm and very at peace that it wasn’t going to be what takes his life.”
Sarah acted swiftly and firmly, telling him he needed to get back in the truck and she was taking him to the hospital, about a 7-minute drive. At first, Jay insisted he just needed to catch his breath, to which Sarah responded, “Get in the truck or I’m calling 911.”
At the hospital, things were a blur. With Sarah by his side, he was immediately whisked to a room for testing.
“[The physician’s assistant] pulled the paper out of the computer, and she just turned around and it wasn’t 10 seconds, 15 seconds before the doctor was in there saying, ‘You’re having a heart attack, we got to go [to surgery],'” Jay said.
Jay felt helplessness.
“I think I was still pretty calm. And in that moment, what do you do?” Jay said. “You just kind of go along with what they’re telling you. I remember something vividly going through my head, ‘No way. Not me. You’re too young. I thought I was in shape. This can’t be happening to me.'”
During the successful surgery, which Sarah estimates took about an hour, the doctors found that his right coronary artery was 100% blocked. They inserted a stent to open the artery and scheduled another procedure for two days later — the morning of BYU’s season opener against FCS Southern Illinois — to insert another stent into a different, partially blocked artery.
When Jay woke up, he felt much better, and the idea of sticking around until Saturday’s procedure was not appealing.
“They wanted to watch him the whole time,” Sarah said. “He’s like, ‘Nope, I got to get practice tomorrow. My son has a cross country meet. Can you release me to do this stuff and then I can come back and I’ll do the surgery next week?’ In his mind, he’s just like, ‘It’s the first week of the season, I need to get going.'”
SITAKE AND HILL have known each other since the late 1990s. They played against each other — Hill for Utah; Sitake for BYU — but a friendship was born when Kyle Whittingham made Hill and Sitake two of his first hires when he took over for Urban Meyer at Utah at the end of the 2004 season.
Their paths diverged after Hill took the job at Weber State following the 2013 season, but while he turned the Wildcats into a Big Sky and FCS power — winning four conference titles and reaching the playoffs six times — their relationship stayed intact.
“It wasn’t like there was this huge lapse, we’ve always been communicating,” Sitake said. “We’ve never gone a long period of time without talking and we’ve always been in each other’s lives.”
So when Sitake was looking for a new defensive coordinator and Hill was getting the urge to get back to the Power 5 level at the end of the 2022 season, the timing worked for them to reunite in Provo, where they picked up where they left off nearly a decade ago.
It is not unusual for Hill to call Sitake late at night, so when his phone buzzed that Thursday, he answered, “What’s up, bro?”
Sarah was on the other end, and delivered the news from the hospital. Sitake was shocked but quickly offered to help in any way he could. Shortly after they got off the phone, texts from Jay started arriving. Then he called. Fresh out of life-saving surgery, he was concerned about how BYU would call the defensive plays in two days.
“Bro, you don’t need to call me. Just rest,” Sitake said. “We can talk about this later.”
Go Cougs! pic.twitter.com/Hn9hoR8IUr
— Jay Hill (@CoachJayHill) August 31, 2024
When BYU met as a team the next afternoon, Jay remained at the hospital. Sitake told the players what had happened, then Jay joined the meeting via FaceTime.
“We were all pretty shocked because Coach Hill is a super active, healthy guy,” safety Tanner Wall said. “But he made it very clear from that moment that he didn’t want us to be distracted or worry about him, but to worry about going and winning our game.”
At the hospital, Jay was negotiating. He was told he would feel even better the next day after he underwent his second angioplasty procedure, after which it was recommended he should go home and rest.
But what if he went to the game and sat in the coaches’ box and watched?
“What the doctor said was, ‘I would not recommend it. Ultimately, you get to make the decision, but I wouldn’t recommend it,'” Jay said. “And I just told him, I’m going to watch the game one way or the other. So whether I’m at the stadium or at the house, I’m going to watch the game. So I might as well be at the stadium where I feel like I at least have a little bit of control.”
After his second surgery in less than 48 hours, Jay made his way to LaVell Edwards Stadium about an hour before kickoff. As he was escorted down to the field, he wasn’t feeling well, and it was there when he was embraced by his players that the mental stress of it all caught up with him.
“I don’t ever get emotional, but I got so emotional going on the field,” he said. “This is where I want to be — down on the field — and I can’t.”
Jay usually calls plays from the field, but he was relegated to the coaches’ box, where Sarah joined him. During the game, Sitake and linebackers coach Justin Enna shared playcalling duties on defense. Jay wore a headset and had the play sheet in front of him, but he mostly sat back and let his colleagues take the reins.
He was under strict doctors’ orders not to get too excited during the game, but his natural instincts made that a tough assignment. When signs of emotion started to show, there was Sarah — with a subtle squeeze of his leg or a knowing glance — to reel him back in.
It helped that BYU won comfortably 41-13 and that the defense made the game enjoyable for Jay.
“It was fun for me to sit in the box and just watch all the hard work from fall camp,” Jay said. “The players executed, they rallied behind what had just happened with the heart attack — for me it was a pretty surreal moment just to sit up there and kind of just see it from afar.”
HILL DECIDED HIS brush with death wouldn’t require any sort of lengthy absence from the team.
The coaching staff had Sunday off, but he was back in the office at 8 a.m. Monday, ready to work a full day ahead of that Friday’s game at SMU.
But he also realized there needed to be some concessions. During practice, he sat on a balcony overlooking the field and coached with a headset. He cut Mountain Dew and was more careful about his diet. Sarah joined him for regular walks that replaced his usual runs and weightlifting.
Hill was advised that most patients in his situation were supposed to take it easy for four to six weeks, and that a full recovery was six months out.
“In his mind as a coach, what does that mean, taking it easy?” Sarah said. “If they work 90 hours a week sometimes, does that mean now you’re just working 60?”
Jay’s path to recovery ran parallel with an encouraging start to the season for BYU. A brilliant defensive performance led the Cougars to an 18-15 win against SMU — it would be the Mustangs’ only loss in the regular season — and they made quick work of Wyoming to move to 3-0.
After the win in Laramie, Sitake walked into a celebratory locker room. It was a scene he usually would have been thrilled to see.
“There’s this big monster pit of dancing going on and there is Jay Hill in the middle of it,” Sitake said. “So, I go and pull him out and am like, ‘What are you doing? You’re not supposed to be doing that.’
“He just lives life, man. But we have had to watch him a little bit, because he’s always worried about others and focused on helping them get the energy they need.”
On one occasion, multiple staff members noticed that Hill’s complexion wasn’t right, so cornerbacks coach Jernaro Gilford called Sarah. Hill went home early.
“He gets into it and loses himself in the work and the service and what he’s trying to accomplish,” Sitake said. “And that’s what makes him special. But it’s also why we have to kind of watch out for him. It’s OK. We can be our brother’s keeper for a little bit.”
Sarah was there for Jay at every step. For the first several games of the season, she remained with him in the coaches’ box during games. They would measure his blood pressure before the game and monitor it as needed.
The fourth game of the season was at home against No. 13 Kansas State. On the field before the game, Jay felt his heart start to race. That was his cue to head up to the box, where he measured his blood pressure with alarming results. It was on par with the reading on the day of his heart attack.
“It was like 200 over 130 or something like that, stupid high,” Jay said. “And that scared me a little bit. That was a moment where I’m like, ‘If we don’t figure out how to monitor this, I don’t know if I can coach.”
(At this level, it is recommended to consult a doctor immediately, according to the American Heart Association.)
Sarah did her best to keep him calm, and the numbers improved a bit as the game began. But after the Cougars scored 31 straight points during a chaotic run between the second and third quarters, he was back in the danger zone.
“Then after the game, we win, and I think that’s when it kind of starts to drop and chill out a lot,” Jay said.
It wasn’t the first time Sarah and Jay, who have four children — Ashtyn, Alayna, Allie and Jacob — went through a medical scare together. This time, Sarah’s role as his de facto caretaker represented a role reversal in their relationship.
In 2016, she was diagnosed with Stage 4 Hodgkin lymphoma. It required a year and a half of intense treatment that included radiation, a bone marrow transplant and several rounds of chemotherapy. Going through that, she said, allowed her to maintain a sense of calm when helping her husband through his time of need.
“I was in the hospital for a month, and getting that perspective switch of me coming in, watching him in a hospital bed and him sitting in the hospital bed was actually a really beautiful experience,” Sarah said. “We were able to experience the other person’s side, and you just grow in love and compassion for each other, having experienced the opposite.
“So, we have joked that it’s a competition of who cannot die the best.”
Sarah’s original diagnosis, like Jay’s, came during fall camp. Throughout the season, he would accompany her to chemotherapy treatments every other Wednesday and do his best to be there for her while managing the demands of being a head coach.
Jay said they both felt the support of an entire college football program.
“I saw a very special thing in both instances where the team kind of rallied behind us,” he said. “The team rallied for sure behind her and her cancer situation. I’ll bet you 90 percent of the players shaved their heads that year. It was a pretty special moment of just how players can offer support and show someone that they loved her.”
AS HILL’S RECOVERY progressed through the season, BYU kept winning.
After beginning the year picked to finish 13th in the 16-team Big 12, the Cougars won their first nine games to rise to No. 6 in the College Football Playoff rankings. But just as the prospect of receiving a first-round bye started to seem possible, BYU lost back-to-back close games to Kansas and Arizona State in November.
The Cougars finished in a four-way tie with Colorado, Iowa State and ASU, with tiebreakers sending ISU and ASU through to the Big 12 title game.
After missing on a chance to play for the conference title, BYU and Colorado — which did not play during the regular season — were selected to play in the Alamo Bowl.
“It’s been great having him here, but it’s been really cool to see him recover and help us have the type of year we’ve had,” Sitake said. “We anticipated that we were going to have something special this year — even from the beginning — and he’s a big part of that.”
After BYU ranked near the bottom of the country in almost every major defensive category in 2022, this year it was among the best. The Cougars finished the season ranked No. 1 in the Big 12 in scoring defense (20.1 points per game), total defense (317 yards per game) and forced turnovers (27). Hill was nominated for the Broyles Award, given to the top assistant in college football.
“I think if you look at our defense over the past two seasons, you can definitely see the impact that he’s made,” senior defensive end Tyler Batty said. “His impact is unmistakable for sure.”
It resonates far beyond the X’s and O’s.
“This dude had a heart attack, and the same day he was operated on, he is at our game in the booth,” Batty said. “It just goes to show that he is a great example of grit and resilience. Guys like him and Kalani are guys you want to run through a wall for.”
By the last quarter of the season, Hill felt like he was back to normal. He returned to the practice field midway through the season and ramped up the intensity of his workouts near the end. Routine check-ins with his doctor have continued, and the signs have been positive.
For Hill, though, the major takeaway from the past few months hasn’t come from his recovery.
“I think we’re a little better in all areas as a team and it’s made a huge impact on just the success overall,” he said. “And then to see that pay off in wins has been pretty special.”
Spoken like a true coach.
Ohio State coach Ryan Day was candid in his postgame assessment of the Buckeyes’ 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling on Saturday, acknowledging it was “not a matchup game.”
That was the theme of Week 2, which featured multiple contenders playing FCS opponents or other unranked, lower-level teams. That doesn’t mean there weren’t a few lessons learned.
“Regardless of your opponent, you can see good execution,” Day said. “Whether it’s penalties, assignments, spacing, timing — there’s a crispness to anybody you play.”
Not everyone demonstrated that crispness on Saturday against weaker competition — and it changed the playoff pecking order. (Here’s lookin’ at you, Clemson.) This list is fluid — and it should be early in the season. It is a ranking based on what each team has done to date — not last year or what it might do in the coming weeks. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The win against Texas gives the Buckeyes a case for the top spot, as does the eye test, as quarterback Julian Sayin continues to flourish with his accuracy, consistency and minimal mistakes in his first year as a starter. The defense under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia continues to look stifling. Ohio State also benefited this week from Clemson’s struggles against Troy, because it takes some of the shine off LSU’s season-opening road win against Clemson. While Clemson struggled, Texas reasserted itself. The selection committee members would include those results in their discussions as they determine who had the better Week 1 win. With Clemson dropping out of this week’s top 12, that honor now goes to Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still believe that LSU is the better team and reward it for a season-opening road win. Ohio State manhandled Grambling from the onset, a glorified practice in the Shoe against a SWAC team that trailed 35-0 at the half. The committee would consider that both of Ohio State’s wins were at home.
Need to know: The selection committee isn’t supposed to consider last year’s results, so Ohio State’s 2024 national title isn’t a part of its deliberations, nor is the Associated Press poll ranking. The group evaluates the teams based on their current résumés, so how Texas fares will eventually impact how much the committee values that season-opening win against the Longhorns.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. The Buckeyes will again have home-field advantage for another marquee matchup, and ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Canes’ win against Notre Dame in the season opener separates them from the teams ranked below. They also showed no signs of a letdown against FCS Bethune-Cookman on Saturday. Quarterback Carson Beck completed 22 of his first 24 passes for two touchdowns and no interceptions, and the Canes also accounted for three touchdowns on the ground — a balanced offense the Wildcats had no answer for. The biggest difference for Miami through two games, though, has been a dominant defense.
Why they could be lower: The committee could still reward LSU for winning on the road, whereas both of Miami’s wins were at home. The Seminoles’ win against Bama will carry weight in the room as long as the Tide keep winning, but the reality is that Miami’s win against Notre Dame looks better — at least through two weeks.
Need to know: With Clemson struggling against Troy and losing to LSU, Miami now has the highest chance in the ACC to reach the playoff (46.5%) and earn a first-round bye as one of the committee’s top four teams (14.6%).
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. The Canes get rival Florida at home later this month, but they have to travel to Tallahassee, where the Seminoles have quickly asserted themselves as a team to take seriously this year.
Why they could be here: LSU’s win at Clemson is still separating the Tigers from other contenders, but it lost some of its impact after Clemson had an underwhelming defensive performance and its offense was stagnant for a second straight week — this time against Troy. LSU had its own issues offensively against Louisiana Tech, which was able to put pressure on quarterback Garrett Nussmeier throughout the game. LSU struggled to establish the run and push the ball downfield through the bulk of three quarters against Louisiana Tech. While LSU struggled, both Ohio State and Miami left no doubt they were the better team.
Why they could be higher: The selection committee does consider factors such as where the game was played, and of the top three teams, LSU is the only one with a win on the road against what is probably still a CFP Top 25 team.
Need to know: The CFP selection committee this year is using a metric called “record strength” to help determine how a team performed against its schedule. LSU entered Week 2 ranked No. 2 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, second only to Ohio State.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Ole Miss. The Rebels just beat Kentucky 30-23 for their first SEC win and have a 69.8% chance to beat LSU, according to ESPN’s FPI.
Why they could be here: The Seminoles are still scoring. FSU racked up 70 points against FCS team East Texas A&M — through three quarters. It finished with a 77-3 victory. This FSU team is doing everything it can to make the selection committee forget the 2024 team that won two games. Florida State’s Week 1 win against Alabama was one of the most notable nationally and will continue to help the Noles if the Tide finish as a Top 25 CFP team. The committee also compares common opponents, and although beating East Texas A&M will be a moot point on Selection Day, it’s at least interesting to note that fellow ACC team SMU set the bar in Week 1 when it beat the Lions 42-13.
Why they could be lower: The committee tracks wins against FCS opponents and rewards teams that played tougher opponents. Beating the now 0-2 Lions from the Southland Conference — even with a sledgehammer — isn’t going to earn the Seminoles any bonus points in the room.
Need to know: If the Seminoles can win the unofficial state title by beating rivals Miami and Florida, they could be competing for one of the top four spots and an at-large bid, assuming they finish with one loss or better. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives FSU less than a 50% chance to beat each in-state rival.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Clemson. ESPN’s FPI gives Clemson a 69.9% chance to win. If that’s FSU’s only regular-season loss, though, the two could meet again in the ACC title game.
Why they could be here: The Ducks embarrassed Oklahoma State — they led 41-3 at the half — giving them a win against a struggling Big 12 program. The selection committee would view this as a better win than the lopsided beatdown the Ducks handed FCS opponent Montana State in Week 1. The committee respects sheer dominance, though, as evidenced by last year’s evaluation of Indiana, and for the second straight week, Oregon scored at least 59 points.
Why they could be lower: Both of the Ducks’ wins have come against significantly weaker opponents, and both were at home.
Need to know: Oregon won’t play a ranked opponent until it travels to Penn State later this month, and if the Ducks don’t win that game, their best chances to impress the selection committee against CFP Top 25 opponents during the regular season will likely be against Indiana and USC.
Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 67.7% chance to win — and it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule that they’re not favored to win.
Why they could be here: Penn State shut out FIU and played a clean game with no penalties or turnovers — the first time the program has done that since Oct. 25, 2008, at Ohio State — but every team ranked above the Nittany Lions here has a better win on its résumé.
Why they could be lower: There are still some questions about Penn State’s offense. The Nittany Lions converted just 3 of 12 third downs and were 2-of-4 on fourth down. They also had a slow start — 10-0 halftime lead — and the pass protection from the offensive line was shaky at times.
Need to know: If Penn State goes 0-2 against Oregon and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions might have only one win against a CFP Top 25 opponent (Indiana). That’s a scenario where a weak nonconference lineup (Nevada, FIU and Villanova) could haunt them.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 61.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Vols have scored at least 45 points in back-to-back games. They have not missed a step without quarterback Nico Iamaleava. The season-opening win against Syracuse was respectable, but the Orange needed overtime to beat UConn in Week 2, so the jury is still out on the true value of that nonconference win. It’s still better, though, than what some other contenders are lining up and knocking down. That wasn’t the case on Saturday, when the Vols hammered FCS opponent East Tennessee State.
Why they could be higher: There could be a debate between the Vols and Penn State, as the Nittany Lions are the only team ranked above Tennessee without a Power 4 win. Tennessee’s win against a Southern Conference team won’t impress the committee, but unlike Penn State, the Vols have been consistently dominant on offense.
Need to know: Tennessee has the eighth-best chance to make the CFP, according to the Allstate Playoff predictor (51%).
Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Georgia. The Vols’ offense has been more productive than the Bulldogs’ so far, but ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 60% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Bulldogs are right where they’re supposed to be — undefeated heading into Tennessee — but it hasn’t always been pretty. Georgia closed as 46.5-point favorites against Austin Peay and was clinging to an 11-point halftime lead, its narrowest against a non-FBS opponent since 2016 against Nicholls State. Wins against Marshall and Austin Peay wouldn’t stack up well in the selection committee meeting room against some of the wins earned by the teams ranked above the Bulldogs.
Why they could be lower: Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton didn’t have a single passing touchdown against Austin Peay. He didn’t need to with the Bulldogs’ four rushing touchdowns, but the Dawgs were also stuffed to end the first half after a first-and-goal from the 1-yard line.
Need to know: Georgia has the best chance to earn a No. 1 seed (79.7%) and a first-round bye (50.7%), according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 vs. Texas. If Arch Manning continues to improve and can find ways to execute the explosive plays he had on Saturday against SEC competition, the Longhorns will again be one of the toughest teams to beat in the SEC.
Why they could be here: Arch Manning and the Longhorns got what they needed — a convincing win against an overmatched opponent and a shot of confidence. But a lopsided win against now 0-2 San Jose State isn’t going to give Texas the boost it needs in the selection committee meeting room. The Longhorns won’t have another opportunity against a ranked opponent until their SEC opener on Oct. 4 at Florida — if the Gators are still a Top 25 team after losing at home to South Florida. The offensive improvement from Week 1 to Week 2, though, is something committee members would notice and continue to track. After a slow start, the Longhorns scored three touchdowns in three minutes and 12 seconds. Manning had four touchdowns on 10 completions at one point in the first half.
Why they could be lower: It’s hard to see the committee putting Texas lower during a week in which other contenders also played lower-caliber opponents.
Need to know: If Texas doesn’t lock up a spot in the CFP as the SEC champ, it should still have a strong enough résumé as a two-loss team to earn an at-large bid. Where it gets a little tricky is with a third loss, and that’s where not having a nonconference win against a Power 4 opponent would enter the committee’s discussion. ESPN’s FPI, though, projects Texas to finish as a two-loss team.
Toughest remaining game: Nov. 15 at Georgia. This could be a preview of the SEC championship game (again). ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 54% chance to win.
Why they could be here: The Irish were idle following their 27-24 season-opening loss at Miami, and the selection committee doesn’t typically move teams that don’t play — unless it’s a result of shuffling around them. The loss to the Canes didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the top 10 because it was close and on the road to a ranked team capable of winning the ACC.
Why they could be lower: Simply because other teams have won two games.
Need to know: How Notre Dame’s opponents fare is critical to the selection process, and it helped the Irish (albeit slightly for now) that Boise State rebounded from its season-opening loss to South Florida. The better the Broncos play, the more respect Notre Dame will earn in the committee meeting room if it beats them on Oct. 4.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 vs. USC. ESPN’s FPI projects Notre Dame will win out and has the second-best chance to do so behind Ohio State. The rivalry game against the Trojans, though, is the closest thing remaining to a coin toss. ESPN’s FPI gives the Irish a 56.5% chance to win.
Why they could be here: For the second straight week, the Illini scored at least 45 points, and this time they did it on the road against a respectable Duke team that won nine games last year. It was a convincing nonconference win on the same night South Carolina struggled to get its offense going early at home against South Carolina State. Iowa State garnered some consideration for this spot after its rivalry win against Iowa, but it didn’t help the Cyclones that Kansas State lost to Army (which also lost to Tarleton State). The selection committee considers opponents’ opponents. The Illini’s win wasn’t flawless, but they’re a veteran team that was able to capitalize on Duke’s mistakes on a night when other contenders either beat up on weaker teams or struggled against them.
Why they could be lower: Illinois led by just one at halftime and was aided by five Duke turnovers. South Carolina has a similar nonconference win against an ACC team, as it opened with a win against Virginia Tech, but the Hokies also lost to Vanderbilt on Saturday.
Need to know: Illinois doesn’t play Michigan, Oregon or Penn State during the regular season. That doesn’t mean the schedule is easy, but it’s manageable enough to earn an at-large spot if Illinois looks the part of a playoff team and doesn’t win the Big Ten.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Ohio State. Illinois gets the Buckeyes at home, but ESPN’s FPI gives Ohio State an 81.8% chance to win.
Why they could be here: A nonconference win against a ranked Big Ten opponent will earn respect in the selection committee meeting room. It also came on a day when Arizona State struggled against Mississippi State, one of the SEC’s lower-tier teams, and Florida lost to South Florida at home. Meanwhile, Oklahoma’s defense got enough pressure on Michigan freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood to disrupt the Wolverines’ passing game. Sooners quarterback John Mateer accounted for two rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown but wasn’t flawless.
Why they could be lower: The Sooners got an upgrade in Mateer, but he can’t do everything. The dual-threat quarterback led the team in passing and rushing, but Oklahoma will need more from its ground game against the SEC schedule.
Need to know: This head-to-head result could come into play later if the Sooners and Michigan are competing for an at-large spot. It’s a tiebreaker in the committee meeting room, and as long as their records are the same, OU will have the edge on Michigan. If Oklahoma is going to stay in the playoff race, though, it has to move up in the ranking, because right now it would be bumped out to make room for the Big 12 champ or the highest-ranked champion from the Group of 5.
Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 vs. Texas. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas an 82.9% chance to win.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 3 LSU (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 USF (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Iowa State (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Penn State
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Tennessee
No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 USF/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Iowa State/No. 6 Penn State winner vs. No. 3 LSU
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Tennessee winner vs. No. 2 Miami
No. 9 Texas/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
While Week 2 of the college football season did not offer the blockbuster matchups we saw in Week 1, it nonetheless packed a significant punch.
The biggest blows were delivered by South Florida, Oklahoma and Oregon, which scored significant wins that boosted their standing in the College Football Playoff pecking order. But there were plenty of other results — some upsets, some near-misses and some less-than-stellar victories — that impacted the overall bowl picture.
As in last season’s inaugural 12-team CFP, the five highest-ranked conference champions, plus the next seven highest-ranked teams, will make the field. Unlike last year, the four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds Nos. 5 through 8.
From there, the quarterfinals and semifinals will be played in what had been the New Year’s Six bowls, with this season’s national championship game scheduled for Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami.
All of that is just the tip of the iceberg, though. Apart from the playoff is the 35-game slate of bowl games, beginning with the Cricket Celebration Bowl on Dec. 13.
We’re here for all of it.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out, and we’ll be back every week of the season until the actual matchups are set.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
Friday, Dec. 19/Saturday, Dec. 20
Times and networks TBD.
Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia
Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas
Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame
First-round breakdown
Bonagura: Welcome to the party, South Florida. After dominating Boise State in Week 1, the Bulls backed that up by shocking Florida 18-16. That’s two wins against ranked opponents to start the season, and while the jury remains out on how good Boise State and Florida actually are, no other Group of 5 team can claim as good a start. And for that reason, USF earns the No. 5 projected-champion spot this week.
The other big move this week is Oklahoma, which jumped into picture with a strong showing against Michigan. The John Mateer pickup has worked out as designed so far, and with Temple, Auburn and Kent State up next on the schedule, the expectation here is that the Sooners will take a 5-0 record into the Red River Rivalry game with Texas on Oct. 11.
Schlabach: Most of the top CFP contenders beat up on lesser opponents this week, but there was some shakeup in my top 12 because of a couple of surprising results. I dropped Clemson and Utah for Oklahoma and Iowa State. The Tigers struggled to put away Troy 27-16 at home (the Trojans led 16-0 late in the second quarter), which was probably a result of a hangover from a season-opening loss to LSU.
Utah is still one of the top teams in the Big 12, but I thought it was appropriate to reward the Cyclones for their 16-13 victory over Iowa on Saturday. Likewise for Oklahoma, which was impressive in its 24-13 win over Michigan at home. With a stingy defense and Mateer running the offense, the Sooners could be a serious CFP player this season.
South Florida also gets my Group of 5 conference champion pick after it stunned Florida in the Swamp. If USF can somehow make it three in a row at No. 5 Miami next week, it would be in the driver’s seat for a CFP bid.
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State
CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game Presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
CFP quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU
Quarterfinals breakdown
Bonagura: Oregon didn’t just beat Oklahoma State — the Ducks demoralized the Cowboys. No living person was around the last time Oklahoma State lost by as many points, underscoring how lopsided the 69-3 win was. A quarterfinal matchup between the Ducks and Texas would be appointment viewing, but there are really no bad possibilities for this round — at least at this point in the season. This is another benefit of the change to not grant the byes to the top four conference champions. It ensures better matchups in the quarters.
Schlabach: The top six teams in my bracket remain unchanged, although I did shuffle the order after Georgia looked sloppy in its 28-6 victory against FCS program Austin Peay at home. The Bulldogs lost two fumbles and couldn’t score from the 1-yard line on three straight plays at the end of the first half. It wasn’t the kind of performance Georgia coach Kirby Smart wanted going into next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee.
I dropped the Bulldogs from No. 4 to No. 6 in the seedings, behind No. 4 Miami and No. 5 Oregon. The Ducks had one of the most impressive performances of the week with their 69-3 demolition of Oklahoma State. Oregon piled up 631 yards of offense and returned two interceptions for touchdowns, handing Mike Gundy the worst loss in his 20-year tenure at his alma mater.
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State
National championship breakdown
Bonagura: As the SEC and Big Ten arms race continues, just imagine the bragging rights that will come when one of the conferences sends two teams to the championship game for the first time in the expanded playoff era. Both leagues have a chance to achieve that this year, but right now — even though it’s way too early in the season to have a real sense of anything — the Big Ten looks like it has better odds. My current projection has Ohio State and Oregon playing for it all, a repeat of last year’s quarterfinal win by the Buckeyes in the Rose Bowl.
Schlabach: Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon rolled this week, while LSU looked a little lethargic in its 23-7 win against Louisiana Tech. The Tigers might have still been celebrating their 17-10 win at Clemson in Week 1. They’re going to have to be more consistent if they’re going to be a legitimate CFP title contender.
Like Kyle, I am projecting a rematch of last season’s Oregon-Ohio State Rose Bowl, but I have them meeting in the semifinals, with the Buckeyes again prevailing.
Complete bowl season schedule
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State
LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Wyoming vs. Texas State
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss
Monday, Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty
Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State
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