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British voters are in for a relatively untroubled 2025, after the “Year of Elections” which saw a new government in the UK and major upheavals around the world, including the victory of Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as US president for the second time on 20 January.

In all likelihood, Sir Keir Starmer needs not go to the polls for some four and a half years, thanks to the huge Commons majority Labour won last July.

August 2029 is the deadline for the next UK general election, by which time the second Trump administration will have been and gone.

The next elections for the Scottish parliament and the assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland are not due until 27 May 2026.

All of which means slim pickings for those trying to glean the political mood of the UK and a much greater focus than usual this year on what little voting is due to take place: English councils on 1 May. Making detailed sense of the picture will be a tough task for two vital reasons.

Comparisons with the last local elections in the same places in May 2021 will be tricky because the government’s English Devolution Bill has given some areas the chance to opt out of elections this year if they are likely to become part of the proposed combined single-tier “Strategic Authorities”.

Secondly, in 2021 the state of the parties in contention was very different. There was no Reform UK party, and none of its predecessor Brexit or UKIP parties to speak of. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives were riding high. The Tories made big gains at council level, while Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens stalled.

The political map has been transformed since then. Today there are five Reform UK MPs at Westminster, four Greens and a record 72 Liberal Democrats.

The standard question in opinion polls is: “How would you vote if there were to be a general election tomorrow?”.

We all know there is not going to be one for years.

Besides, as beleaguered politicians always like to point out when the news is bad, even when one was imminent in 2024, the polls did not precisely reflect what happened with “real votes in real ballot boxes”.

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Picture is not cheering for established parties

What the polls do give is a broad indication of the trend in opinion, and the picture is not cheering for the established parties.

Labour and the Conservatives are neck-and-neck in the mid-20% range, an astonishingly low level of support for either of them.

Reform UK is only about five points behind, clearly the current third force in British politics and well up on their 14% at the general election.

The Liberal Democrats, at around 12% and the Greens at 6% are more or less holding their vote share.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer departs 10 Downing Street, London, to attend Prime Minister's Questions at the Houses of Parliament. Picture date: Wednesday December 18, 2024. PA Photo. See PA story POLITICS PMQs. Photo credit should read: James Manning/PA Wire
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Sir Keir Starmer. Pic: PA

Can Reform and Farage keep up momentum?

The big question in the 2025 local elections is whether Reform UK and its leader Nigel Farage can keep up their momentum.

On the face of it the party seems well placed to make a splash. Because it is starting from zero – any council seats it wins will count as gains.

Reform UK has reorganised since the general election and is now trying to establish a competitive grassroots operation.

Mr Farage speaks at a Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters
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Nigel Farage speaking at a Donald Trump campaign event in Arizona in 2020. Pic: Reuters

Funding does not seem to be a problem. Zia Yusuf, a multi-millionaire former Goldman Sachs banker, has taken over as party chairman.

The property magnate Nick Candy, Reform UK’s new treasurer, was in the group that met Elon Musk at Mr Trump’s Mar-e-Largo headquarters. Afterwards Mr Farage downplayed reports Mr Musk might be prepared to donate as much as $100m (£79m) to his party.

Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage and Reform UK treasurer Nick Candy with Elon Musk. Pic: PA

Reform is splitting the right-of-centre vote

Reform UK claimed last week to have several thousand more members registered than the Conservative Party’s official figure of 131,680 – a ticker on their official website is keeping count.

The party is currently splitting the vote on the right of centre with the Conservative Party as its prime target. The strong Tory performance in these areas last time leaves them looking highly vulnerable.

In 2021, the Conservatives won control of 19 out of 21 county councils and seven of 13 unitary authorities. In subsequent local elections in other areas the Conservatives suffered heavy losses, meaning overall they are now behind Labour for the total number of councillors. This year the Tories are defending their last remaining electoral high point.

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Mr Farage is the outstanding communicator active in British politics, who has frequently exploited non-Westminster elections to exert pressure on the UK government, most notably in the 2014 and 2019 European elections, when strong performances drove the Conservatives first to the EU membership referendum and then to a hard Brexit.

The Conservatives do not know whether to fight or try to accommodate Reform UK.

Should Reform hammer them in this year’s council elections, it could be the end for Kemi Badenoch’s leadership. In the longer run it is conceivable Reform could supplant the Conservatives – or take them over by merger – as the main political force on the right of British politics.

Conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch speaking at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) conference.
Pic: PA
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Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA


Reform also targeting Labour voters

There is also a Reform UK threat to Labour as well.

So far Labour has dominated the new strategic mayoralities and combined authorities in England. They currently hold all four of those up for election in May 2025: West of England, Cambridgeshire, Doncaster and North Tyneside. Two more mayors are being voted for this year in Greater Lincolnshire and Hull and East Yorkshire.

While socially right-wing, Reform UK is tailoring its economic message to the less well-off, including to populations in the so-called “Red Wall”, de-industrialised areas of the country which were once safe Labour constituencies. For example, Dame Andrea Jenkyns, the former Conservative MP and minister, is now Reform’s candidate to be the new mayor of Greater Lincolnshire.

Unlike the two main parties, Reform has a straightforward policy on the threatened Scunthorpe steelworks – nationalise it. It has obvious appeal even though there is no chance Dame Andrea could enact it.

A disappointment for Farage would not be the end of the insurgency

Voters are more inclined to vote with their hearts when the national government is not at issue. One of Sir Keir’s nightmares must be that the devolution this government is spreading across England starts to light up in colours other than red.

It is certainly possible this year’s council election results could be a major disappointment for Mr Farage’s party. If so it will not be the end of the insurgency. Reform UK is already also making plans to inflict damage on Conservatives, Labour and SNP alike in the next set of non-Westminster elections, in 2027, in Scotland and Wales.

2025’s comparatively minor elections are set to have major political consequences at the very least for Mr Farage, Ms Badenoch and the Conservative Party.

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Welfare concessions should give people ‘peace of mind’, says Wes Streeting

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Welfare concessions should give people 'peace of mind', says Wes Streeting

Wes Streeting has suggested he is confident the government will now win a crunch vote on welfare cuts after Sir Keir Starmer made a number of concessions to prevent a damaging rebellion.

The health secretary told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the alterations to the controversial welfare bill meant those in receipt of benefits now had “peace of mind”.

Asked whether he was confident the government would now win a vote on the reforms scheduled for Tuesday, Mr Streeting said: “Yes.

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“I think the changes that were made this week have put us in a much better position, not just on the vote on Tuesday, but on the substance of the package – because as a result of the changes, it means anyone watching this morning who’s in receipt of PIP, Personal Independence Payments, now has the peace of mind of knowing that their situation is protected.”

It comes after the prime minister carried out the most significant U-turn of his premiership at the end of the week in order to quell a growing rebellion over his welfare package.

More than 120 Labour MPs had signalled they were prepared to vote down the bill next week after they signed an amendment that would have stopped its progress through parliament – citing concerns about the impact on the most vulnerable and the lack of proper consultation with disabled groups.

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The scale of the rebellion – and the fact it spanned all wings of the party – alarmed Downing Street and led to Sir Keir making a number of changes to diffuse the anger.

Originally, the bill set out to tighten the eligibility criteria for PIP – money that is given to people, some of whom are in work, who have extra care or mobility needs as a result of a disability.

People who claim it are awarded points depending on their ability to do certain activities, such as washing and preparing food, which influences how much they will receive.

Currently claimants need to score a minimum of eight points across a range of tasks to qualify for the daily living element (there is a mobility element that is not affected by the plans). Under the new rules people will need to score a minimum of four points in at least one activity to qualify.

However, the changes made by Sir Keir mean existing PIP claimants will now be exempted from the stricter new criteria.

Alterations to Universal Credit, another type of benefit, mean that the health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications, as opposed to existing ones.

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Mr Streeting declined to say whether he thought those who decide to vote against the bill should lose the party whip, which would force them to sit as an independent MP in the Commons.

He said it was “not my decision”, but added that there was an “expectation that Labour MPs vote for the whip”.

In a series of interviews over the weekend, the prime minister acknowledged there had been some mishandling of the welfare debate and said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

“Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome,” he said, adding that all the decisions made were his and that “I take ownership of them”.

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Starmer says he was ‘heavily focused’ on world affairs before U-turn on welfare bill

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Starmer says he was 'heavily focused' on world affairs before U-turn on welfare bill

Sir Keir Starmer has said he was “heavily focused” on world affairs before he was forced to U-turn on his welfare bill after rebellion by MPs.

In a piece in The Sunday Times, Sir Keir said he was occupied with the G7 and NATO summits and the escalating tensions in the Middle East for much of the past two weeks.

His “full attention really bore down” on the welfare bill on Thursday, he added.

It comes after the government was forced to U-turn on plans to cut sickness and disability benefits after significant rebellion by Labour MPs earlier this week.

The government has since offered concessions ahead of a vote in the Commons on Tuesday, including exempting existing Personal Independence Payment claimants (PIP) from the stricter new criteria, while the universal credit health top-up will only be cut and frozen for new applications.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. File pic: PA
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Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. File pic: PA

Sir Keir defended the U-turn by saying: “Getting it right is more important than ploughing on with a package which doesn’t necessarily achieve the desired outcome.”

He said all the decisions were his and that “I take ownership of them”.

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There have been reports that rebel MPs blamed Sir Keir’s chief of staff Morgan McSweeney for the government’s approach.

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Sir Keir said: “My rule of leadership is, when things go well you get the plaudits; when things don’t go well you carry the can.

“I take responsibility for all the decisions made by this government. I do not talk about staff and I’d much prefer it if everybody else didn’t.”

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Sir Keir said on Saturday that fixing the UK’s welfare system is a “moral imperative”.

Speaking at Welsh Labour’s annual conference in Llandudno, North Wales, Sir Keir said: “Everyone agrees that our welfare system is broken, failing people every day.

“Fixing it is a moral imperative, but we need to do it in a Labour way, conference, and we will.”

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Hundreds of NHS quangos to be axed – as plans unveiled for health funding to be linked to patient feedback

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Hundreds of NHS quangos to be axed - as plans unveiled for health funding to be linked to patient feedback

NHS funding could be linked to patient feedback under new plans, with poorly performing services that “don’t listen” penalised with less money.

As part of the “10 Year Health Plan” to be unveiled next week, a new scheme will be trialled that will see patients asked to rate the service they received – and if they feel it should get a funding boost or not.

It will be introduced first for services that have a track record of very poor performance and where there is evidence of patients “not being listened to”, the government said.

This will create a “powerful incentive for services to listen to feedback and improve patients’ experience”, it added.

Sky News understands that it will not mean bonuses or pay increases for the best performing staff.

NHS payment mechanisms will also be reformed to reward services that keep patients out of hospital as part of a new ‘Year of Care Payments’ initiative and the government’s wider plan for change.

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Speaking to The Times, chief executive of the NHS Confederation Matthew Taylor expressed concerns about the trial.

He told the newspaper: “Patient experience is determined by far more than their individual interaction with the clinician and so, unless this is very carefully designed and evaluated, there is a risk that providers could be penalised for more systemic issues, such as constraints around staffing or estates, that are beyond their immediate control to fix.”

He said that NHS leaders would be keen to “understand more about the proposal”, because elements were “concerning”.

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Health Secretary Wes Streeting said: “We will reward great patient care, so patient experience and clinical excellence are met with extra cash. These reforms are key to keeping people healthy and out of hospital, and to making the NHS sustainable for the long-term as part of the Plan for Change.”

In the raft of announcements in the 10 Year Health Plan, the government has said 201 bodies responsible for overseeing and running parts of the NHS in England – known as quangos – will be scrapped.

These include Healthwatch England, set up in 2012 to speak out on behalf of NHS and social care patients, the National Guardian’s Office, created in 2015 to support NHS whistleblowers, and the Health Services Safety Investigations Body (HSSIB).

The head of the Royal College of Nursing described the move as “so unsafe for patients right now”.

Professor Nicola Ranger said: “Today, in hospitals across the NHS, we know one nurse can be left caring for 10, 15 or more patients at a time. It’s not safe. It’s not effective. And it’s not acceptable.

“For these proposed changes to be effective, government must take ownership of the real issue, the staffing crisis on our wards, and not just shuffle people into new roles. Protecting patients has to be the priority and not just a drive for efficiency.”

Elsewhere, the new head of NHS England Sir Jim Mackey said key parts of the NHS appear “built to keep the public away because it’s an inconvenience”.

“We’ve made it really hard, and we’ve probably all been on the end of it,” he told the Daily Telegraph.

“The ward clerk only works nine to five, or they’re busy doing other stuff; the GP practice scrambles every morning.”

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