Unconventional Russian attack could cause ‘substantial’ casualties, top NATO official warns

Published

6 days ago

December 29, 2024

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There is a “real prospect” an unconventional attack by Russia against NATO – such as an act of sabotage or arson – will cause “substantial” casualties, a top alliance official has told Sky News.

James Appathurai, who is updating a NATO strategy to track and deter so-called hybrid warfare, said allies must be clearer among themselves and with Moscow about what level of grey zone hostilities could trigger an allied response, including the use of military force.

He said NATO’s 32 member states were already in a “boiling frog” situation, with suspected Russian hybrid attacks across Europe, the United States and Canada creeping up to a volume that would have been “utterly unacceptable” five years ago.

There had been a particular rise in more “kinetic” acts – like cutting vital undersea cables, sabotage against buildings and the planting of incendiary devices inside aircraft cargo – since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

“We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” Mr Appathurai, NATO’s deputy assistant secretary general for innovation, hybrid and cyber, told Sky News in an interview at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels.

He said the increase in attacks was a response by the Kremlin to Western military support to Ukraine as well as a belief that the West is anti-Russia – something the official said was not true – and is trying to constrain Moscow from attacking its neighbours. “That part’s true. So they don’t like what we’re doing, but also they see us as an enemy. And that’s getting worse.”

Russia has previously denied allegations of sabotage, cyber hacks and assassinations.

Asked if he was worried a suspected Russian hybrid attack could breach a threshold that would prompt NATO to invoke its Article 5 collective response – whereby an attack on one is deemed an attack on all – and go to war with Russia, Mr Appathurai said: “What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way.”

He pointed to an attempt by Russia in 2018 to kill Sergei Skripal, a former Russian double agent, and his daughter Yulia, in Salisbury using a batch of a novichok chemical weapon that contained enough poison potentially to kill thousands of people.

“So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Mr Appathurai said.

He added: “And then what we don’t want is to be in a situation where we have not thought through what we do next.

“So that’s part of the reason why we’re going to exercise all of this. And that includes military elements of the response.”

His team is updating a NATO strategy to understand, deter and counter hybrid warfare that was last drawn up in 2015 when the threat was very different.

The work includes a new effort by the alliance to plot all suspected hybrid attacks by Russia and other hostile actors, including China, Iran and North Korea, to have a better understanding of the scale and scope of the challenge.

The updated policy – which is due to be approved at a summit in 2025 – will also set out how NATO can better deter aggression and how it should respond – given that any move by the alliance could be deemed escalatory.

“We’re in a little bit of a boiling frog situation,” Mr Appathurai said.

He continued: “We are seeing now what would have been utterly unacceptable five years ago, but we’ve kind of gotten used to it… And that’s very dangerous.

“So we want to establish a baseline now, then prevent escalation, manage it if it happens, but also work to de-escalate, not to where we are now, but to where we were years ago.”

Since its foundation in 1949, NATO allies have been deterring the then-Soviet Union and now Russia from launching conventional military attacks on its soil.

There is a clear red line – well understood by both sides – about how any kind of armed attack could trigger a collective Article 5 response.

The alliance has said hybrid hostilities – which are deliberately hard to attribute and could be carried out by criminals acting unwittingly on behalf of the Russian intelligence services – could reach the level of a hybrid attack that might require the same kind of armed response.

However, the threshold is unclear.

On whether NATO needs to be better at setting out to Russia what its red lines are when it comes to hybrid warfare, Mr Appathurai said: “What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas.

“So we do need and are working on being more clear about what these red bands – these areas are, these thresholds.”

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New Orleans attacker acted alone and ‘no definitive link’ to Las Vegas Tesla explosion, FBI says

Published

7 hours ago

January 3, 2025

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New Orleans attacker acted alone and 'no definitive link' to Las Vegas Tesla explosion, FBI says

The man who drove a pick-up truck into people celebrating the New Year in New Orleans is believed to have acted alone, according to the FBI – as new information was revealed about the two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) recovered near the scene.

There is also “no definitive link” between the attack and the Cybertruck explosion in Las Vegas, said FBI deputy assistant director Christopher Raia.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar’s rented truck rammed into people in New Orleans’ famous Bourbon Street, killing 14 and injuring dozens, in the early hours of New Year’s Day.

New Orleans attack – follow latest

Mr Raia called the attack “premeditated” and an “evil” act of terrorism, and said Jabbar was “100% inspired by ISIS”, also known as Islamic State.

He also said the FBI was reviewing two laptops and three phones linked to Jabbar, as well as two improvised explosive devices (IEDs) recovered near the scene of the attack.

The two “functional” devices contained nails and were made of galvanized pipe with end caps, and taped inside two coolers, according to Sky News’ US partner NBC News, citing the FBI and two senior US law enforcement officials. Both devices had receivers for remote firing, they said.

It was not immediately clear if Jabbar tried to detonate the devices, or if they malfunctioned, the officials said.

And during a search of Jabbar’s home in Houston, investigators found remnants of bomb making.

Five videos posted in hours before attack

The 42-year-old army veteran, who was born in the US and lived in Texas, was shot dead after he crashed and opened fire on police.

The FBI said he posted five videos on his Facebook account between 1.29am and 3.02am – with the attack taking place around 3.15am.

In one, he said he planned to harm family and friends but was concerned headlines would not focus on the “war between the believers and disbelievers”.

He also joined Islamic State “before this summer” and provided a will, Mr Raia told reporters.

A black ISIS flag was attached to the back of the white Ford truck used in the attack and was pictured lying next to the vehicle.

Authorities said Jabbar drove around police barricades on to the footpath, with witnesses describing carnage as the truck sped down the street, knocking people over.

“You just heard this squeal and the rev of the engine and this huge loud impact and then the people screaming,” said one witness, Kimberly Strickland from Alabama.

Barriers protecting pedestrians had been removed for repairs before the attack, city officials said, and were due to be replaced with a new bollard design.

While the works were taking place, they had been replaced with white gate barriers which were managed by the New Orleans Police Department, according to the City Of New Orleans.

Among the victims named so far are an 18-year-old aspiring nurse, a single mother with a four-year-old son, and a graduate of Princeton University.

What we know about Shamsud-Din Jabbar

The FBI also said CCTV showed Jabbar placing the IEDs near the scene. However, none of them went off.

The investigation is expected to look at any support or inspiration he may have drawn from IS or any of its affiliate groups.

The bureau has received more than 400 tips from members of the public and more than 1,000 agents and officers have been working on the case.

Jabbar held human resources and IT roles in the army from 2007 until 2015, and was stationed in Afghanistan for a year. He was then in the reserves until 2020.

A friend described him as “very quiet, very reserved, smart, articulate” and said he had been raised a Christian before converting to Islam a long time ago.

Meanwhile, the Sugar Bowl college American football game went ahead on Thursday afternoon, with a moment of silence beforehand, after being postponed on Wednesday following the attack. The city will also host the Super Bowl next month.

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Did New Orleans authorities fail the victims of the New Year terror attack?

Published

16 hours ago

January 3, 2025

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Did New Orleans authorities fail the victims of the New Year terror attack?

Did the authorities fail the victims of the New Orleans terror attack? It’s barely in question, surely.

And yet, consider the response of Superintendent Anne Kirkpatrick of New Orleans police when I asked if she’d let them down by not having an appropriate security plan.

“That’s not correct, we would disagree with that.”

“It has to be a security failure?” I suggested.

“We do know that people have lost their lives,” she responded. “But if you were experienced with terrorism, you would not be asking that question.”

With that, she was escorted away from gathered journalists by her media handlers.

Superintendent Kirkpatrick had been holding a short news conference at the end of Bourbon Street to herald its re-opening. It was just yards from the spot where a terrorist was able to drive through a gap in a makeshift line of obstructions and accelerate towards New Year crowds.

Invoking “experience with terrorism” is something to ponder. What experience told authorities they had adequate protection against a vehicle attack?

What experience told them it was appropriate to have a car’s width gap in makeshift street barricades?

What experience told them to contradict the security protocols of major cities around the world when it comes to large public gatherings?

To many, the answer shouldn’t be talk of experience – it should be, simply: “Sorry.” Notably, it has seemed to be the hardest word in a series of briefings by authorities who have bristled at the notion of security failings.

I asked Jack Bech for his view. He lost his brother Martin, or ‘Tiger’ in the Bourbon Street attack. He told Sky News he watched the final moments of his brother’s life on a FaceTime call to an emergency room as doctors tried, but failed, to save him.

It’s one heartbreaking story among dozens in this city.

On security, he said: “You can’t blame them. That dude easily could have been walking through the crowd with a jacket on and a bomb strapped to his chest.”

True. But the least that might be expected is an acknowledgement of failure to stop the man who drove his weapon into the crowd because he was able to. They certainly can’t claim success.

A measure of contrition would, perhaps, help the healing in this city. Experience should tell them that, if nothing else.

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South Korea: Investigators fail to detain impeached president Yoon Suk Yeol

Published

16 hours ago

January 3, 2025

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South Korea: Investigators fail to detain impeached president Yoon Suk Yeol

South Korean investigators have failed to detain impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol after a nearly six-hour standoff with his security service.

It is the latest confrontation of a political crisis that has paralysed South Korean politics and seen two heads of state impeached in under a month.

The country’s anti-corruption agency said it withdrew its investigators after they were blocked from entering Mr Yoon’s official residence due to concerns about the safety of its members.

The agency expressed “serious regret about the attitude of the suspect, who did not respond to a process by law”.

Mr Yoon, a former prosecutor, has defied investigators’ attempts to question him for weeks.

The last time he is known to have left the residence was on 12 December.

Investigators from the country’s anti-corruption agency are weighing charges of rebellion after Mr Yoon, apparently frustrated that his policies were blocked by an opposition-dominated parliament, declared martial law on 3 December and dispatched troops to surround the National Assembly.

Parliament overturned the declaration within hours in an unanimous vote and impeached Mr Yoon, accusing him of rebellion, while South Korean anti-corruption authorities and public prosecutors opened separate investigations into the events.

A Seoul court issued a warrant for Mr Yoon’s detention on Tuesday, but enforcing it is complicated as long as he remains in his official residence.

Nearly five hours after dozens of investigators and police officers were seen entering the gate of the residence in Seoul to execute the warrant, the dramatic scene appeared to have developed into a standoff.

Analysis: President Yoon standing firm against the law

It appears President Yoon is ready to keep defying anti-corruption officials.

The warrant for his arrest expires on Monday, so those determined to see him detained will have to think fast.

Yoon’s legal team insists the move is “illegal and invalid”.

They’re basing their case on a law which prevents locations potentially linked to military secrets from being searched without the consent of the person in charge – in this case Yoon.

There was speculation Yoon might try to hide in a bunker in his residence.

But whatever happens next, whatever cover he continues to find, Yoon’s political career is all but over.

And the longer the stand-off, the more damaging it is for South Korea’s democratic reputation.

The ultra conservative’s two-and-a-half years in office have been marked by scandal.

His attempt to defy arrest is a damning denouement.

If he is eventually detained, Yoon, who was impeached by parliament last month, would become the first sitting president to be arrested.

The country’s constitutional court will ultimately decide whether to uphold the impeachment vote.

That move would trigger an election for a new president.

Seok Dong-hyeon, one of several lawyers on Yoon’s legal team, confirmed the investigators arrived at the building and said the agency’s efforts to detain Yoon were “reckless” and showed an “outrageous discard for law.”

South Korea’s Defence Ministry confirmed the investigators and police officers got past a military unit guarding the residence’s grounds before arriving at the building.

The presidential security service, which controls the residence itself, refused to comment on whether its members were confronting investigators.

The liberal opposition Democratic Party called on the country’s acting leader, Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok, to order the presidential security service to stand down.

Mr Yoon’s defence minister, police chief and several top military commanders have already been arrested over their roles in the period of martial law.