Labour would lose almost 200 seats in ‘highly unstable’ parliament if election held today, poll suggests

Published

6 days ago

December 29, 2024

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Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, a new mega poll suggests.

While Sir Keir Starmer would still come out on top, it would be in a “highly fragmented and unstable” parliament with five parties holding over 30 seats.

More in Common, which used the data of more than 11,000 people to produce the analysis, said the results show the UK’s First Past the Post (FPTP) system is “struggling to function” in the new world of multi-party politics, and if the results come true it would make government formation “difficult”.

The model estimates Labour would win, but with barely a third of the total number of seats and a lead of just six seats over the Conservatives.

According to the analysis, Labour would lose 87 seats to the Tories overall, 67 to Reform UK and 26 to the SNP – with “red wall” gains at the July election almost entirely reversed.

Nigel Farage’s Reform party would emerge as the third largest in the House of Commons, increasing its seat total 14-fold to 72.

A number of cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform – the main beneficiary of the declining popularity of Labour and the Tories – including Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper, Ed Miliband, Bridget Philipson, Jonathan Reynolds and John Healey.

Wes Streeting, the health secretary, would lose Ilford North to an independent, the analysis suggests.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common UK, said the model is “not a prediction of what would happen at the next general election”, which is not expected until 2029.

But he said the polling highlights a significant acceleration of electoral fragmentation since July’s vote, and that the UK’s First Past the Post system “is struggling to deal” with it.

Under the UK’s FPTP system, the person with the most votes in each constituency becomes the MP and candidates from other parties get nothing.

There has long been criticism that this can generate disproportionate results.

At the July election for example, Labour won 411 seats out of 650 on just under 34% of the popular vote.

Reform UK took 14.3% of the popular vote – the third party by vote share – but only won five seats.

Tories would ‘struggle to come close’ to forming government

More in Common’s analysis found 271 seats would be won on under a third of the vote.

Labour would win 228 seats, the Conservatives 222 and Reform 72. The Liberal Democrats would win 58 seats, with the SNP on 37 and the Greens on two.

The Tories would be highest in terms of national vote share – at 26% compared with Labour’s 25% – but this would still be their second-worst vote share in history and they would “struggle to come even close” to forming a majority government without making gains against Reform on the right or the Lib Dems on the left, Mr Tryl said.

In a post on X, he said he had “no idea” what the model would mean for coalition building if it became a reality at the next election, saying government formation would be “difficult”.

More in Common used the MRP technique, which uses large amounts of individual and constituency-level data.

‘Uncertain future’

The results are similar to a model by JL Partners published this week, which shows Labour would lose 155 seats, leaving it on 256, if an election were held today.

The analysis, which used council by-election data, put the Tories on track to win 208 seats, Reform on 71, the Lib Dems on 66 and the SNP on six.

If the results played out at the next election, it would “make governing almost impossible for any of the parties, sending the country into an unsure future”, JL Partners said.

The results are the latest in a series of grim polls for Labour, who are being made to pay for unpopular decisions such as the means testing of the winter fuel payment and PR nightmares like the freebies row.

Labour are now on track for their worst end to the year in opinion polls since the Second World War, a Sky News analysis has found.

However, history suggests all is not yet lost for the party, who have previously rebounded from historic lows.

And polling experts have told Sky News they have “certainly got time” to turn things around – and must focus on delivery and improving their messaging to the public.

Politics

Parliament urged to begin mandatory DBS criminal record checks on new MPs and peers

Published

10 hours ago

January 4, 2025

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Parliament urged to begin mandatory DBS criminal record checks on new MPs and peers

MPs and peers could be forced to submit to criminal record checks under proposals submitted by a new Labour MP.

In a letter seen by Sky News, Jo White urged the leader of the Commons to examine whether a new committee set up to modernise parliament should force all new members to have checks due to their access to young and vulnerable people.

She suggests in-depth background checks by the Disclosure and Barring Service – commonly known as DBS checks – as the initial stages of introducing MPs to parliament.

Candidates are currently banned from running to be an MP if they have been jailed for more than a year in the UK.

However, there is no requirement for DBS checks, something most other jobs require when applying for positions working with vulnerable people.

Ms White previously submitted an early-day motion on this issue, with cross-party signatures including 13 other Labour MPs supporting her motion.

In her letter to the committee, the Bassetlaw MP writes: “It is a privilege that, as parliamentarians, we can work with local schools, care homes and hospitals, but we must be proactive in preserving this trust.

“Implementing a mandatory check would protect both the people we visit and ourselves. It would be key to maintaining public trust and high workplace standards across the estate and in our constituencies.”

DBS checks are standard practices for GPs, nurses, teachers and other professions. They let potential employers know if a candidate has a criminal record or is banned from working with children or vulnerable adults.

Many local authorities already run DBS checks on elected officials but it’s not standard practice in parliament.

Prospective MPs can stand for election despite having a criminal record or appearing on the child-barred list or adult-barred list unless they have served a prison term over 12 months.

In fact, they do not need to disclose any criminal behaviour to the public prior to becoming a candidate.

The main vetting process before entering the House of Commons is done through political parties, who set their own rules for carrying out any such checks.

None of the Reform UK MPs have signed the early-day motion and leader Nigel Farage said last election there was “no vetting” of candidates.

This has already caused some controversy.

One Reform MP, James McMurdock, was jailed 19 years ago for repeatedly kicking his then girlfriend, according to court documents disclosed by The Times.

The South Basildon and East Thurrock MP attacked her in 2006 while drunk outside a nightclub and spent 21 days in a young offenders’ institution.

He had not publicly disclosed the conviction and described it as a “teenage indiscretion” when asked about the incident last year.

Under new rules, new MPs might have to fully disclose their criminal past.

The creation of a modernisation committee was a Labour manifesto promise and now sits as a cross-party group tasked with reforming House of Commons procedures and improving standards.

The committee said it would not be commenting on submissions until it’s had time to fully consider all options, but is due to publish an initial report early this year.

Politics

Nigel Farage rejects Tommy Robinson after support from Elon Musk

Published

10 hours ago

January 4, 2025

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Nigel Farage rejects Tommy Robinson after support from Elon Musk

Nigel Farage has said Tommy Robinson “won’t be” joining Reform UK after Elon Musk showed support for the jailed far-right activist on social media.

The billionaire owner of X, who has spoken positively about Reform UK and is reportedly considering making a donation to the party, has been critical of the government’s handling of child sexual exploitation across a number of towns and cities more than a decade ago.

While the Reform UK leader described the billionaire owner of X as “an absolute hero figure, particularly to young people in this country”, he distanced himself and his party from Robinson, who is currently serving an 18-month prison sentence for contempt of court.

Mr Musk endorsed the far-right activist and claimed Robinson was “telling the truth” about grooming gangs, writing on X: “Free Tommy Robinson”.

Speaking to broadcasters ahead of the start of Reform UK’s East Midlands Conference tonight, party leader Mr Farage did not directly address Mr Musk’s comments, but said: “He has a whole range of opinions, some of which I agree with very strongly, and others of which I’m more reticent about.”

He went on to say that having Mr Musk’s support is “very helpful to our cause”, describing him as “an absolute hero figure, particularly to young people in this country”.

He continued: “Everyone says, well, what about his comments on Tommy Robinson? Look, my position is perfectly clear on that. I never wanted Tommy Robinson to join UKIP, I don’t want him to join Reform UK, and he won’t be.”

Later on GB News, Mr Farage added that Mr Musk “sees Robinson as one of these people that fought against the grooming gangs”.

“But of course the truth is Tommy Robinson’s in prison not for that, but for contempt of court,” he said.

Mr Farage added: “We’re a political party aiming to win the next general election. He’s not what we need.”

How did Elon Musk become involved?

The online campaign from Mr Musk began after it emerged that Home Office minister Jess Phillips had denied requests from Oldham Council to lead a public inquiry into child sexual exploitation in the borough, as the Conservatives had done in 2022.

In a letter to the authority in Greater Manchester, Ms Phillips said she believes it is “for Oldham Council alone to decide to commission an inquiry into child sexual exploitation locally, rather than for the government to intervene”.

An Oldham Council spokesman previously said: “Survivors sit at the heart of our work to end child sexual exploitation. Whatever happens in terms of future inquiries, we have promised them that their wishes will be paramount, and we will not renege on that pledge.”

Mr Musk posted on X multiple times about the scandal, and claimed Sir Keir Starmer had failed to bring “rape gangs” to justice when he led the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS). In 2013, Sir Keir introduced new guidelines for how child sexual abuse victims should be treated and how a case should be built and presented in court.

The SpaceX and Tesla boss also endorsed posts about Robinson.

Robinson, who is 42 years old and whose real name is Stephen Yaxley-Lennon, admitted at Woolwich Crown Court in October to breaching an injunction banning him from repeating libellous allegations against a Syrian refugee schoolboy, after he was successfully sued for libel in 2021.