A massive election – well, two massive elections on either side of the Atlantic, and more elsewhere around the planet – followed by changes of government and plenty of economic milestones along the way. So let’s remind ourselves of some of the big moments of the year, in chart form.
We begin with the big economic picture. Growth. This time last year, the UK was (unbeknownst to us at the time) actually in recession. The news was only confirmed in the spring of this year, but for two successive quarters in the second half of last year, economic growth fell.
What’s equally intriguing is what happened next: a rapid bounce-back as gross domestic product increased by more than expected in the first two quarters of the year. Since then, it has tailed off markedly, causing some consternation in the Treasury.
Indeed, an initial estimate of 0.1 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2024 was revised down to zero growth – stagnation.
Still, interest rates are now finally on the way down. They were cut in August for the first time following the cost of living crisis, and are expected to fall further next year. However, the scale of those expected falls is considerably smaller now than before the Budget. Why? Because the government is planning to borrow and spend considerably more next year.
And while Labour insists this will not be visible on your pay check – and hence isn’t breaking their pre-election pledge – we will, as a nation, be paying considerably more in taxes as a result. Indeed, the tax burden, the total amount of tax incurred by the population as a percentage of GDP, is now heading up to the highest level on record. This is, it’s worth saying, a stark contrast with the costed measures Labour put in their manifesto.
Image: *There were two general elections in 1974 – in February and October
That brings us to the election itself – an election in which Labour rode to an extraordinary landslide, winning more than 400 seats for the first time since the glory days of Tony Blair. It represented an immense comeback for the party, following such a drubbing in 2019. However, there are some important provisos to note.
Chief among them is the fact that the party won the smallest share of the vote of any winning party in the modern era. This was not a landslide victory in terms of overall popular support.
Among the issues that has resounded this year, both before the election and after, was migration. This time last year the data suggested that net migration into the UK had peaked at just over 750,000.
But then, last month, new data brought with it a shocking revision. In fact, the Home Office had both undercounted the number of people coming into the country and overcounted the number leaving. The upshot was a new figure: in fact 906,000 more people had entered than departed in the year to last summer. Not just a new record – a totally gobsmacking figure.
The vast, vast majority of that migration was not the “small boats” so much has been made of but legal migration, more or less equally divided between work and study. It was to some extent the consequence of the post-COVID bounceback and, even more so, changes in government policy as post-Brexit migration rules came into force.
Another issue which came to light throughout the year was something else: the leakiness of Britain’s sanctions regime with Russia. While government ministers like to boast about how this is the toughest regime on Russia in history, our analysis found that sanctioned British goods are routinely being shipped into Russia via its neighbours in the Caucasus and Central Asia.
In a series of investigations, we tracked how this carousel works for the trade of cars, which get sent to countries like Azerbaijan before being shuffled around the Caucasus and entering Russia via Georgia and other routes. But that same carousel is likely being used for equipment like drone parts and radar equipment. We know it’s being sent to Russian neighbours. We know it’s ending up on the battlefield. The data tells a stark story about the reality of the sanctions regime – and helps illustrate how Russia is continuing to keep its forces armed and equipped with components from the West.
Prisoners are being sent back to jail by the probation service because it’s the “easiest thing to do”, rather than solely for public protection, the chief inspector of probation has told Sky News.
Martin Jones cited caseload “pressure” in the service meaning officers are recalling people to jail to get them out of their “worry zone”, even if it has “relatively little impact on the protection of the public”, causing “overcrowded prisons” for “limited benefit.
“I think it’s a symptom of a system under huge pressure,” said Mr Jones.
“I’m not sure that the checks and balances are in place to ensure that it’s really about significant risk to the public. There is of course a difference between somebody, for example, committing a very serious sexual or violent offence and perhaps somebody who is released from custody on licence, they don’t have anywhere to live and they shoplift. They might face further charges. Is it really necessary for the protection of the public that person be recalled to custody?.”
The recall population in England and Wales – the number of prisoners sent back to jail after release – has more than doubled in the last decade. It now accounts for 15% of the total number of people behind bars.
Data published by the Ministry of Justice covering July-September 2024 showed there were 9,975 recalls, up 42% on the same period the previous year, and the highest quarterly recall statistics on record. It means that for every 100 people being released between July and September, 67 people were recalled.
It comes after the government introduced a new early release scheme in September, which saw thousands of offenders freed after serving 40% of their sentence, rather than 50%.
In the three months to September, nearly a quarter (24%) of recall cases involved a charge of further offending, with almost three-quarters (73%) of people recalled for “non-compliance” with license conditions.
That can include missing or turning up late to probation appointments, missing curfews, or poor behaviour. Homelessness, meaning offenders aren’t reporting to stable accommodation, is another significant recall factor.
In the past three years, the annual number of recalls for people who have faced no further charges while on license almost doubled, from 13,192 to 25,775 per year. Meanwhile the number recalled who have been charged with a new crime is almost exactly the same as it was then.
Less than a quarter of those recalled to prison in the year to September were charged with a new crime – the first time on record that figure has been that low.
There are a number of factors as to why the recall population has grown so much. These include longer sentences meaning lengthier license supervision periods on release, higher caseloads, and structural changes to the service meaning probation monitoring is required for all offenders.
Before 2014, it wasn’t required for those sentenced to less than a year in jail.
Early release schemes under the previous government and new measures introduced by Labour in September have contributed.
Changes to the recall process in April also mean that less serious offenders serving sentences of under 12 months will go back to prison for a fixed short period. It’s therefore possible for an offender who might have previously been back in prison for months, now to be released and recalled multiple times.
The number of recalls to releases has been growing. In 2013 prisons were recalling one prisoner for every five people released. That ratio is now 3:5.
Sky News spent an afternoon with ex-offenders in Burnley as they turned up to a charity service called Church on the Street, which offers support to help former criminals turn their lives around.
All of them had experiences and stories of recall, some more than once.
One man said he’d been “recalled for missing three appointments, for being drunk and under the influence”.
“Every time I’ve been recalled, it’s always been for 18 months, two years. It goes on for that long,” he said.
He accepts “responsibility” for breaking the rules but doesn’t feel it “warrants” lengthy terms back in jail for “no crime committed”.
Long sentences, sometimes for serious crimes, mean that when released at the halfway point prisoners are monitored by the probation service with lengthy license periods. If recalled, whether that be for a breach of a license condition or a further crime – they can end up serving the remainder of that sentence in prison.
Another ex-offender we met told us of a man who was released homeless, with a GPS tracking tag. He couldn’t charge his tag as had no electricity, without a home, and hence couldn’t be monitored by the probation service, and so was recalled to jail.
Image: Bishop Mick Fleming says the recall situation is ‘ridiculous’
Bishop Mick Fleming runs Church On The Street and calls the situation with recall “ridiculous”, saying that the community has noticed a “massive” increase, suggesting that both the prison and probation system is “failing”.
What’s being noticed outside jail in the community, is also being felt inside a pressured and crowded prison system.
When Sky News visited HMP Elmley in Kent in October, almost everyone we spoke to referenced issues with recall.
“It’s like a revolving door”, one serving offender told us. Another said, “cut the recalls down, and the prisons will be empty”.
“Cut the recalls down, and the prisons will be empty”
“We release a lot of people, they’re homeless, they come back within three days,” said a prison officer.
In a statement a Ministry of Justice spokesperson told Sky News that the number of recalled offenders in prison has “doubled” which they say has “contributed to the capacity crisis the new government inherited, with prisons days away from overflowing”.
They said it can take “months before a Parole Board decision on whether a recalled prisoner should be re-released and so we are looking at ways to reform the recall and re-release process, while retaining important safeguards to keep the public safe”.
Roads remain shut in Sheffield city centre as police continue to negotiate with a man who allegedly has weapons.
The incident at a block of flats in Broad Street has been going on for over 24 hours, with residents evacuated and spending Monday night at a nearby sports centre.
Police said they gained access to the building on Tuesday evening and reunited residents with their pets.
However, the Gateway flats remain evacuated and Sheffield Parkway is closed in both directions between Park Square roundabout and Derek Dooley Way.
Trams and buses have also been disrupted.
The Sheffield Star said thousands of commuters were affected on Tuesday morning, with some spending three hours trying to get to work.
South Yorkshire Police said the man is inside a property and is alleged to have weapons and be “a risk to himself”.
Police investigating the deaths of a British couple at their home in rural France have released details from a post-mortem examination.
Prosecutors say Dawn Searle, 56, was found at their property in Les Pesquies with “several” injuries to her head, while her husband, Andrew Searle, 62, was found hanged with no visible defensive injuries.
They are investigating whether the deaths are the result of a murder-suicide or if a third party was involved.
The pair are said to have been found dead by a German friend, who lives nearby, on Thursday after Mr Searle didn’t arrive for one of their regular dog walks.
The couple moved to the hamlet of Les Pesquies around a decade ago and married in the nearby town of Villefranche-de-Rouergue, in the south of France, in 2023.
Image: Andrew and Dawn Searle’s home
A statement from the office of public prosecutor Nicolas Rigot-Muller said Ms Searle was found partially dressed with a major wound to her skull next to a box with jewellery inside.
But no object or weapon was found that could’ve caused the wounds, which an autopsy carried out in Montpellier on Monday found were caused by a blunt and sharp object. There were no signs of sexual assault.
The house appeared to have been quickly searched, while some cash was found in the couple’s room.
Investigators are conducting further examinations, including toxicology and pathology tests, to help determine the precise circumstances of their deaths.
Image: A police officer outside Andrew and Dawn Searle’s home in France
Image: The village of Villefranche-de-Rouergue Aveyron
They each have two children from previous relationships and Ms Searle’s son, the country musician and former Hollyoaks star Callum Kerr, said they were in mourning in a statement posted on Saturday.
Family members are understood to have travelled to France, where they have spoken with investigators.
Speaking to Sky News from the town hall in which he conducted the couple’s wedding ceremony, he said: “It doesn’t seem like the problem comes from here because when we knew them and saw them living here they were very happy, very friendly and didn’t seem to have any problems.
“The problem seems to come from the past or somewhere far away.
“It’s an isolated act, it’s very independent. It doesn’t say that it’s a very dangerous territory, in fact, it’s very peaceful and that’s why probably Andy and Dawn chose to live here, because it’s very peaceful.
“Now, did their past come back and get them? That’s another story. That’s totally different from where we are. It could’ve happened anywhere.”
A Foreign Office spokesperson previously said: “We are supporting the family of a British couple who died in France and are liaising with the local authorities.”
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK