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What a year 2024 was.

A massive election – well, two massive elections on either side of the Atlantic, and more elsewhere around the planet – followed by changes of government and plenty of economic milestones along the way. So let’s remind ourselves of some of the big moments of the year, in chart form.

We begin with the big economic picture. Growth. This time last year, the UK was (unbeknownst to us at the time) actually in recession. The news was only confirmed in the spring of this year, but for two successive quarters in the second half of last year, economic growth fell.

The UK's economy failed to grow in Q3 2024

What’s equally intriguing is what happened next: a rapid bounce-back as gross domestic product increased by more than expected in the first two quarters of the year. Since then, it has tailed off markedly, causing some consternation in the Treasury.

Indeed, an initial estimate of 0.1 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2024 was revised down to zero growth – stagnation.

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Still, interest rates are now finally on the way down. They were cut in August for the first time following the cost of living crisis, and are expected to fall further next year. However, the scale of those expected falls is considerably smaller now than before the Budget. Why? Because the government is planning to borrow and spend considerably more next year.

That wasn’t the only policy in the Budget. Alongside those increases in borrowing and spending, Chancellor Rachel Reeves decided to introduce some significant tax raises – chief among them a big increase in employers’ National Insurance contributions.

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And while Labour insists this will not be visible on your pay check – and hence isn’t breaking their pre-election pledge – we will, as a nation, be paying considerably more in taxes as a result. Indeed, the tax burden, the total amount of tax incurred by the population as a percentage of GDP, is now heading up to the highest level on record. This is, it’s worth saying, a stark contrast with the costed measures Labour put in their manifesto.

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*There were two general elections in 1974 – in February and October

That brings us to the election itself – an election in which Labour rode to an extraordinary landslide, winning more than 400 seats for the first time since the glory days of Tony Blair. It represented an immense comeback for the party, following such a drubbing in 2019. However, there are some important provisos to note.

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Chief among them is the fact that the party won the smallest share of the vote of any winning party in the modern era. This was not a landslide victory in terms of overall popular support.

Among the issues that has resounded this year, both before the election and after, was migration. This time last year the data suggested that net migration into the UK had peaked at just over 750,000.

But then, last month, new data brought with it a shocking revision. In fact, the Home Office had both undercounted the number of people coming into the country and overcounted the number leaving. The upshot was a new figure: in fact 906,000 more people had entered than departed in the year to last summer. Not just a new record – a totally gobsmacking figure.

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The vast, vast majority of that migration was not the “small boats” so much has been made of but legal migration, more or less equally divided between work and study. It was to some extent the consequence of the post-COVID bounceback and, even more so, changes in government policy as post-Brexit migration rules came into force.

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Another issue which came to light throughout the year was something else: the leakiness of Britain’s sanctions regime with Russia. While government ministers like to boast about how this is the toughest regime on Russia in history, our analysis found that sanctioned British goods are routinely being shipped into Russia via its neighbours in the Caucasus and Central Asia.

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In a series of investigations, we tracked how this carousel works for the trade of cars, which get sent to countries like Azerbaijan before being shuffled around the Caucasus and entering Russia via Georgia and other routes. But that same carousel is likely being used for equipment like drone parts and radar equipment. We know it’s being sent to Russian neighbours. We know it’s ending up on the battlefield. The data tells a stark story about the reality of the sanctions regime – and helps illustrate how Russia is continuing to keep its forces armed and equipped with components from the West.

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Poundland to stop paying rent at hundreds of stores in rescue deal

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Poundland to stop paying rent at hundreds of stores in rescue deal

Poundland will halt rent payments at hundreds of its shops if a restructuring of the ailing discount retailer is approved by creditors later this summer.

Sky News has learnt that Poundland’s new owner, the investment firm Gordon Brothers, is proposing to halt all rent payments at so-called Category C shops across the country.

According to a letter sent to creditors in the last few days, roughly 250 shops have been classed as Category C sites, with rent payments “reduced to nil”.

Poundland will have the right to terminate leases with 30 days’ notice at roughly 70 of these loss-making stores – classed as C2 – after the restructuring plan is approved, and with 60 days’ notice at about 180 more C2 sites.

The plan also raises the prospect of landlords activating break clauses in their contracts at the earliest possible opportunity if they can secure alternative retail tenants.

In addition to the zero-rent proposal, hundreds of Poundland’s stores would see rent payments reduced by between 15% and 75% if the restructuring plan is approved.

The document leaves open the question of how many shops will ultimately close under its new owners.

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A convening hearing has been scheduled for next month, while a sanction hearing, at which creditors will vote on the plan, is due to occur on or around August 26, according to one source.

The discounter was sold last week for a nominal sum to Gordon Brothers, the former owner of Laura Ashley, amid mounting losses suffered by its Warsaw-listed owner, Pepco Group.

Poundland declined to comment.

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Israel-Iran conflict poses new cost of living threat – here’s why

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Israel-Iran conflict poses new cost of living threat - here's why

The UK’s cost of living crisis hangover is facing fresh pressure from the Israel-Iran conflict and growing tensions across the Middle East.

Whenever the region, particularly a major oil-producing country, is embroiled in some kind of fracas, the potential consequences are first seen in global oil prices.

The Middle East accounts for a third of world output.

Money latest: ‘Unusual movement’ in house prices

Iran’s share of the total is only about 3%, but it is the second-largest supplier of natural gas.

Add to that its control of the key Strait of Hormuz shipping route, and you can understand why any military action involving Iran has huge implications for the global economy at a time when a US-inspired global trade war is already playing out.

What’s happened to oil prices?

Global oil prices jumped by up to 13% on Friday as the Israel-Iran conflict ramped up.

It was the biggest one-day leap seen since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, which gave birth to the energy-driven cost-of-living crisis.

From lows of $64 (£47) a barrel for Brent crude, the international benchmark, earlier this month, the cost is currently 15% higher.

Iran ships all its oil to China because of Western sanctions, so the world’s second-largest economy would have the most to lose in the event of disruption.

Should that happen, China would need to replace that oil by buying elsewhere on the international market, threatening higher prices.

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How the Middle East conflict escalated

How are natural gas prices holding up?

UK day-ahead prices are 15% up over the past week alone.

Europe is more dependent on Middle East liquefied natural gas (LNG) these days because of sanctions against Russia.

The UK is particularly exposed due to the fact that we have low storage capacity and rely so much on gas-fired power to keep the lights on and for heating.

Israel-Iran latest: Tehran threatens to leave nuclear treaty

The day-ahead price, measured in pence per therm (I won’t go into that), is at 93p on Monday.

It sounds rather meaningless until you compare it with the price seen less than a week ago – 81p.

The higher sum was last seen over the winter – when demand is at its strongest.

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Aftermath of Iranian missile strike in northern Israel

What are the risks to these prices?

Market experts say Brent crude would easily exceed $100 (£74) a barrel in the event of any Iranian threats to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz – the 30-mile wide shipping lane controlled by both Iran and Oman.

While Iran has a history of disrupting trade, analysts believe it will not want to risk its oil and gas income through any blockade.

What do these price increases mean for the UK?

There are implications for the whole economy at a time when the chancellor can least afford it, as she bets big on public sector-led growth for the economy.

We can expect higher oil, gas and fuel costs to be passed on down supply chains – from the refinery and factory – to the end user, consumers. It could affect anything from foodstuffs to even fake tan.

Increases at the pumps are usually the first to appear – probably within the next 10 days. Prices are always quick to rise and slow to reflect easing wholesale costs.

Energy bills will also take in the gas spike, particularly if the wholesale price rises are sustained.

The energy price cap from September – and new fixed-term price deals – will first reflect these increases.

Read more:
How conflict between Israel and Iran unfolded
UK advises against all travel to Israel
Explosions over Jerusalem as missiles ‘detected’ by IDF

How does this all play out in the coming months?

So much depends on events ahead.

But energy price rises are an inflation risk and a potential threat to future interest rate cuts.

While LSEG data shows financial markets continuing to expect a further two interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year, the rate-setting committee will be reluctant to cut if the pace of price growth is led higher than had been expected.

At a time when employers are grappling with higher taxes and minimum pay thresholds, and consumers a surge in bills following the ‘awful April’ hikes to council tax, water and other essentials, a fresh energy-linked inflation spike is the last thing anyone needs.

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Farming: Cost of rural crime in Wales at its highest in more than a decade

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Farming: Cost of rural crime in Wales at its highest in more than a decade

The cost of rural crime in Wales is at its highest in more than a decade, a new report has revealed.

Last year, rural crime cost an estimated £2.8m in Wales, according to insurance provider NFU Mutual.

That’s an 18% increase on the previous year, with Wales the only UK nation to have seen a rise.

For farmers like Caryl Davies, that makes their work harder.

The 21-year-old farms on a beef and sheep farm in Pembrokeshire.

She told Sky News that having the quad bike stolen from her family farm last August had made them feel “really unsafe at home”.

Caryl Davies's farm in Eglwyswrw, Pembrokeshire
Pic: Tomos Evans (no credit needed)
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Caryl Davies farms in North Pembrokeshire

The fact it happened in such a rural area was a “really big shock” for Ms Davies and her family.

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“We’d rely on the bike day in day out, to look after our cows and sheep, and it’s had a really negative impact on us,” she said.

The cost of replacing a bike exactly like theirs would be “close to £10,000”.

“They’re a really expensive piece of kit, but you can’t be without them, especially in these rural areas where we’ve got the mountain and maybe places that aren’t very accessible,” she added.

“The bike is totally crucial for our day-to-day running of the farm.”

Caryl Davies
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Caryl Davies

The incident was caught on camera in the calving shed, but the Davies family have since invested in an enhanced CCTV system. That comes at an additional cost.

“For some farmers, this is spare money that we haven’t really got,” Ms Davies added.

“Farming is hard enough as it is, without people stealing your things and having to spend this extra money on making your home farm safe.”

The total cost of rural crime across the UK has fallen since 2023 – down from £52.8m to £44.1m.

Quad bike and All Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) remained the top target for thieves during the past year, NFU Mutual’s figures show.

James Bourne farms in Pontypool, Torfaen, and claims to have had over 200 sheep stolen from common land adjoining his farm over a four-year period.

The 32-year-old told Sky News that losing sheep from his herd was a “big hit” on his business as well as the young family he is trying to support.

“The way agriculture is at the moment anyway, we’re struggling to make ends meet, and any profit that is in it is obviously being taken from me,” he said.

“So I really need to try and find out and get to the bottom of where they’re going because obviously it’s an ongoing issue.”

James Bourne
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James Bourne

Andrew Chalk, from NFU Mutual, told Sky News that while there had been a “significant drop” across the UK, there were “worrying signs”.

“In Wales, especially, rural crime’s gone up which just shows that organised criminals are looking for ways to target the countryside again and again,” he said.

“What we’ve found increasingly is that organised criminals are targeting certain areas of the countryside, so they’re hitting multiple farms in one night.

“They’re raiding them, they’re moving away to another area and then hitting multiple farms there. So it is hugely concerning.”

Andrew Chalk
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Andrew Chalk

Mr Chalk said NFU Mutual had also heard reports of criminals using drones and other equipment to “look at the lay of the land”.

“What it does show is that organised criminals are always going to find new ways to target rural crime and that’s why we need to be on top of it and to work together to actually disrupt them,” he added.

Police forces in Wales say they are aware of the “significant impact” that rural crimes have on those affected.

A Dyfed-Powys Police spokesperson said the force had acquired new technology to help combat rural crime, including “advanced DNA asset-marking kits” and hopes to “empower farmers with effective tools and advice”.

Read more:
South Wales road opens after 23 years of roadworks
Wales’s first minister hails spending review as ‘big win’

The spokesperson acknowledged the difficulty of patrolling the entire police force area, “given the huge area” it has to cover, and thanked rural communities for their “continuing vigilance and for reporting any suspicious activity”.

Temporary Chief Superintendent Jason White, from Gwent Police, said the force would be “increasing resources” within the rural crime team throughout this financial year and urged anyone in a rural area who believes they have been a victim of crime to get in touch.

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