With the round robin complete, the focus shifts to the medal round of the 2025 IIHF World Junior Hockey Championship. After an entertaining preliminary round with plenty of parity and intrigue, the stage is set for a classic medal round.

One wrinkle to note moving forward, there is a reseeding after the quarterfinal. The highest remaining seed based on group placement, points accrued, and goal differential (in that order) will play the lowest remaining seed. The top four teams are Sweden, United States, Czechia and Finland.

Given the lack of a set bracket, it is hard to predict all the way through, but we’ll give it our best shot, including tournament awards.

Finland takes on Slovakia in what should be an entertaining matchup. Both teams showed weakness in the preliminary round, with Finland getting shut out by Canada and beating the United States in overtime. Slovakia needed overtime to beat Kazakhstan, and a late winner against Switzerland after disappointing performances against Sweden and Czechia. Both teams have goaltenders capable of stealing a game, although Slovakia’s Samuel Urban has underperformed in the tournament.

The Finns are yet to have a standout offensive performance, and lack a real gamebreaker up front. They rank ninth on the power play, besting only Kazakhstan, and are shooting 6.37%. Their bright spot is their perfect penalty kill, something they will need to continue if they are to win low scoring games in the medal round. The Finns need more from Jesse Nurmi, Emil Hemming, Kosta Helenius and Kasper Halttunen on offense.

Slovakia’s medal hopes rest largely on the shoulders of Dalibor Dvorsky and Maxim Strbak, both playing in their fourth World Junior tournament. Dvorsky started slowly and was not as dominant as many expected him to be, but factored in four of five goals against Kazakhstan to secure the win. Strbak will be critical to keeping the best Finnish players off the scoresheet, while also contributing offensively. Dvorsky is a true gamebreaker for Slovakia, capable of scoring a key goal, creating scoring chances and putting the team on his back.

If Urban can play up to his potential and keep the Finns out, Slovakia has the advantage because of Dvorsky’s game-breaking ability. But for now, advantage Finland.

The American matchup against the Swiss should be a simple case of the the United States having far too much for Switzerland to handle in every aspect. The Americans are simply stronger in every area.

In goal, Trey Augustine will lead the way and has rounded into form. Cole Hutson and Zeev Buium are offensive dynamos on the back end who will eat minutes and drive offense. The first forward line of Gabriel Perreault, James Hagens and Ryan Leonard will likely be far too much for the Swiss to handle.

Further down the lineup, the Americans have players who check well, wear opponents down and hold the puck. Barring an outstanding performance in the Swiss goal and a calamitous offensive performance, the Americans should cruise through to the semifinal.

Sweden and Latvia should be similar to USA-Switzerland; however, the Latvians have proven they cannot be taken lightly.

Linards Feldbergs has been the tournament MVP thus far, carrying the Latvians to wins against Canada and Germany, earning a quarterfinal berth. The Swedes looked strong in the preliminary round led by Axel Sandin-Pellikka, Otto Stenberg and Anton Wahlberg.

The Latvians will work hard and create chances off the rush, but the Swedish depth should be too much for the Latvians to overcome. If Feldbergs has another rabbit in his mask, the Latvians have a chance — without that, expect Sweden to cruise to the semifinal.

In what will likely be the best matchup of the quarterfinals, Czechia and Canada will meet in the quarters for the second straight year. Canada looks to avenge last year’s disappointing loss in Sweden, and given Czechia’s offensive firepower, Canada has a big hill to climb.

The Czechs are getting solid production from Eduard Sale and Vojtech Hradec up front, and stable goaltending from Michael Hrabal. The Czechs have a tournament-leading 25 goals, rank top four on both special teams, and lead the tournament with a 19.7% shooting percentage; that shooting percentage will not continue in the medal round, as the bulk of the offensive production came in a 14-2 win against Kazakhstan. In their remaining three games, the Czechs scored 11 goals on 91 shots, for a 12.1% shooting percentage. That is far more sustainable and gives them an advantage against Canada.

Canada has struggled in every aspect of their game, aside from goaltending. Carter George has been excellent and will need to continue his run of play if Canada is to have a chance. Two things are plaguing Canada: a lack of finish, and undisciplined play. Canada opted to leave scorers at home in favor of penalty killers and checkers, something many pointed out prior to the start of the tournament. Fast forward to now, and Canada is struggling to score, they are the most undisciplined team in the tournament and the penalty killers have been ineffective.

Porter Martone, Carson Rehkopf and Gavin McKenna are not being deployed to maximize their offensive potential, and the rest of Canada’s forwards are not scoring at the expected level. Most of the scoring chances are coming from the outside, as Canada struggles to generate in the middle of the ice. Canada will need to get to the middle of the ice, avoid the penalty box (a tall task) and all that starts with the coaching staff altering the deployment of their offensive players.

As it stands, the Czechs have a distinct advantage, but no one will be surprised if Canada pulls it together and gets revenge for last year’s early exit.

Who wins the tournament?

Heading into the semis, it is fair to expect at least one quarterfinal upset. Slovakia and Canada are most likely to knock off their respective higher-seeded opponents, with Canada getting the advantage because of the goaltending.

Given the re-seeding, let’s say the semifinalists are Sweden, United States, Finland and Canada. That would mean we would get Sweden vs. Canada and United States vs. Finland. If the Czechs and Slovakians were to win, it would produce USA vs. Czechia and Sweden vs. Slovakia. Regardless of outcome, Sweden and the United States would be in excellent position to meet in the gold medal game — a rematch of last year’s championship affair.

This year, the Swedes are a deeper team and have a slight advantage over the United States. In a game that would be very close and could come down to overtime, Sweden’s mobile defense core and ability to create offense up and down their lineup may be the difference maker. Given the number of returnees with professional experience playing significant roles for Sweden (Sandin-Pellikka, Wahlberg, Felix Unger Sorum and Theo Lindstein), they should have an advantage as games get tighter and space is less available.

The Americans have the advantage with gamebreakers. Hagens, Perreault and Cole Eiserman are capable of creating and finishing scoring chances with lethal precision. Regardless of outcome, this game will come down to whether the Swedish depth can keep the American firepower at bay. If they can, the Swedes are well set up to avenge their silver medal in Sweden last year.

Individual awards

As for the tournament awards, it is hard to envision a scenario where Sandin-Pellikka and and U.S. defenseman Cole Hutson aren’t the two best, barring some otherworldly performance in the medal round by another blueliner.

In goal, if Carter George gets Canada anywhere near the gold medal game and keep a save percentage above .950, he will likely be a Directorate Award winner. If he can’t, one of Augustine or Hrabal could win the award with excellent performances in the medal round.

There are many options for tournament MVP, led by Sandin-Pellikka and Dvorsky. If Dvorsky can lead Slovakia to a medal, he will get a long look for top forward and tournament MVP. The foundation for these awards is set in the preliminary round, but the true decisions are made as the medal round progresses. Perreault has been quieter than expected, but if the top line heats up for the Americans, he’s got a shot at this award as well. Never count out a guy who can put the puck in the net the way that Perreault can.