Trump 2.0, conflict in Ukraine to end and China challenging global world order – what can we expect in 2025?
What will 2025 mean for Gaza, Ukraine, trade wars and African tech? Our foreign correspondents set the scene for trends that will shape their region.
From elections in the EU to a bombastic Trump presidency to climate disruption, 2025 is shaping up to be a bumpy year.
But it’s not all bad news…
Immediate, dramatic change promised for the United States
by Mark Stone, US correspondent
Never mind the coming year, the coming month could be extremely consequential.
Donald Trump will become America’s 47th president on 20 January – Inauguration Day – and he has pledged immediate, dramatic change.
A year ago, I had lunch with a senior Trump adviser. We pondered a Trump victory.
The adviser projected that a victorious Mr Trump would sign numerous presidential “executive orders” on Inauguration Day.
With a sweep of the presidential pen on a pile of papers on the balcony of the Capitol building literally moments after he takes the oath of office, Mr Trump would, the adviser predicted, undo as much of Biden’s legacy as possible and set the direction of America for the four years ahead.
Whether he signs orders at that moment or in the days after, Mr Trump has said he will “make heads spin”.
Donald Trump has his eye on fresh tariffs and radical immigration policies. Pic: AP
Even before inauguration, Congress will confirm or reject Mr Trump’s administration picks. We’ll discover if controversial choices like Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Kash Patel to head the FBI make the cut.
Domestically, prepare for radical new immigration policies. The mass deportations he has promised will be subject to legal battles but expect Team Trump to fight hard.
There’ll be mass pardons for those involved in the Jan 6th protests / insurrection / riots – divided Americans choose their descriptor dependent on their politics, and he’ll probably go after those who tried to take him down.
Then, the international ramifications of Trump 2.0: Ukraine, the Middle East, the climate agenda, trade tariffs.
On climate – the expectation is that Trump will (again) withdraw the US from the Paris climate commitments, thus rendering America no longer beholden to carbon emissions reductions targets.
On Ukraine, he has said he could bring peace in 24 hours. We will, finally, see what that looks like and the extent to which it benefits one side or the other.
On the Middle East, Mr Trump has said there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office. How does that threat play out? No one knows.
There’s a chance that the combination of traits which define Donald Trump – unpredictable, transactional, threatening, spontaneous – will produce outcomes that look attractive at least in the short term; deals that Biden couldn’t get or wouldn’t take.
Brace for a month and a year of huge consequence.
Europe: Big beast elections, while some cosy up to Trump / political turmoil and turnover
by Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
The year will start with both France and Germany, Europe’s two biggest beasts, facing political uncertainty.
The focus will first be on Berlin – Friedrich Merz is likely to end up as Germany’s chancellor, moving his country more to the right.
He, like a growing number of European politicians, will say his priority is controlling migration. The far-right AfD could well ride that same wave to come second.
France’s parliamentary gridlock means the country’s politicians will stumble on in a constant foul mood. Another election looks certain.
Edouard Philippe, who served as French prime minister under Macron, will start positioning himself to replace Emmanuel Macron as president.
Look out for Giorgia Meloni to grow from “just” being Italy’s leader to becoming Europe’s conduit with Donald Trump. Another person on the up is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian PM who is now head of foreign affairs for the EU.
Italian leader Giorgia Meloni may be further on the up. Pic: AP
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo will remain high, and look out for flashpoints in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh. Hungary will cause more diplomatic mischief.
Bulgaria will adopt the Euro, Romania will finally elect a president. Oh, and journeys between the UK and the EU will become clunkier as the new ETIAS travel permit scheme is launched.
The Middle East: anything but predictable
by Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
If the extraordinary events of 2024 taught or reminded us of anything, it was that the Middle East is anything but predictable.
2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel after the military gains of the past 12 months and unexpected downfall of Bashar al Assad over the border in Syria.
But the hostage situation remains an unresolved and deeply painful situation for Israelis, and time is running out if Donald Trump’s reported demand for a Gaza ceasefire is to be realised before his inauguration on 20 January.
Despite recent optimism around negotiations, differences remain between Hamas and Israel. But a ceasefire remains likely and the best way to release the 100 hostages that remain in captivity.
Any truce will probably be temporary, however, and there is every indication Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable with calls for a permanent occupation growing amongst far-right Israeli politicians.
There is little hope of imminent respite for the Gazan people with no “day-after” plan proposed. And unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves dramatically and rapidly, Israel’s international reputation will continue to suffer as the International Court of Justice considers accusations of genocide.
The recent escalation in attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have caused little material damage to Israel but have created new uncertainty on another front.
Netanyahu is surely tempted to strike a weakened Iran, both to deter the Houthis and degrade the country’s nuclear programme, but might be dissuaded if he doesn’t get support from the incoming US president.
That temptation might become too great however if Tehran attempts to accelerate its nuclear programme as a way of making up for the loss of its ally Assad in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The elderly Iranian Supreme Leader’s health and authority has been the source of much speculation in recent months so that will be something to keep a close eye on.
Syria’s new leaders will need to stabilise the country and bring together the various religious and militant factions otherwise the euphoric optimism seen after Assad’s overthrowing risks a new civil war.
And finally, both Trump and Netanyahu have expressed their hopes for a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and it would certainly be a huge boon to the latter as he eyes re-election in 2026.
But as long as the war in Gaza continues, Riyadh is unlikely to gift Bibi that historic agreement, certainly not without considerable concessions for the Palestinian people, which Netanyahu is unlikely to concede.
Trump will challenge China and China will challenge global world order
by Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent in Beijing
The momentum in China-US competition could really pick up the pace next year if Donald Trump puts his trade threats into action.
Before Americans went to the polls, Trump threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could spark a global trade war and economic meltdown.
Since the election, he has said he’s planning an extra 10% on top of existing tariffs on Chinese products.
Beijing is bracing for trouble and is already engaged in retaliatory trade action with the US. Watch this issue heat up next year.
The US is expected to increase tariffs on Chinese chips next year as competition heats up. Pic: FeatureChina via AP
Diplomatically, while there are efforts to turn the fraught UK-China relationship around, it’s likely spying allegations and accusations of Chinese political interference – which Beijing vehemently denies – will continue to test both countries.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Beijing in 2024 and Chancellor Rachael Reeves is expected to come in January.
In Asia and around the world, the growing power of China remains a major issue. Its influence is reaching deep into “Global South” countries. Many are open to Chinese overtures for trade, tech and diplomatic support.
In the middle of this great global reshaping, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are challenging the US-led “rules-based” global order.
Keep an eye on how these countries help each other, diplomatically, militarily and economically.
They may have little in common. But they all have a desire to see an alternative to the hegemony of the West.
Fighting in Ukraine will finally cease next year
by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
I predict the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. Or perhaps more accurately: the fighting will stop and the conflict will be frozen.
Both sides have recently indicated a willingness to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News he’d be willing to cede territory, while Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to compromise.
It’s a dramatic shift in tone, brought about by the election of Donald Trump. Talks and a deal feel inevitable.
Whatever the outcome, Russia will present it as a win.
Pic: Reuters
I think the Kremlin will hope to conclude negotiations before 9 May, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. The aim will be for a double celebration.
But the problems won’t end there for Vladimir Putin. With surging inflation, a sliding rouble and weak productivity, the economy will be the next battle.
In Africa, more protests, more climate disasters and more tech
by Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent
The year is ending with building protest movements in Mozambique, Angola and Kenya. Crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators have led to deaths that are fuelling further dissent.
The El Nino weather phenomenon drove drought to new levels in southern Africa this year and propelled a cyclone season that started early with the deadly Chido in Mayotte.
Although El Nino dissipated in the summer, many countries will continue to suffer its impacts next year due, including in the form of severe food shortages.
Africa already bears the brunt of climate change, and with the planet getting hotter still, cruelly more extreme weather is on the way to batter homes, health and livelihoods.
Not all news is negative, though.
Tech innovation in Africa is expected to continue as young people find ways to survive and thrive in tough job markets and rising costs of living.
Banned from Eurovision after its invasion of Ukraine, Russia will hold a rival international song contest on Saturday, with an emphasis on “traditional values”.
Instead of camp, think conservative – patriotic pop with a PG-rating.
“Intervision” was launched under the order of Vladimir Putin, with the hope it would serve as an expression of Moscow’s international pulling power.
Intervision decorations in Red Square, Moscow, ahead of the contest
There are contestants from 23 countries, which are a mixture of Russia’s allies old and new, including Belarus, Cuba and Tajikistan as well as China, India and Saudi Arabia.
The odd one out is the United States, who’ll be represented by an artist called “Vassy”. She’s not part of an official delegation, but an American voice is still a coup for the Kremlin, which will seek to use this contest as proof of the West’s failure to isolate Russia on the global stage.
‘War whitewash’
Intervision is not entirely new. It was originally launched in the 1960s as an instrument of Soviet soft power, before largely fading from view in the 1980s.
According to Moscow, its revival has nothing to do with politics. But Ukraine has condemned it as propaganda, and an attempt to whitewash Russia’s war.
It was a point I put to some contestants after their final press conferences, but it didn’t go down well.
“We don’t think like that, we are here to spread peace,” India’s Rauhan Malik told me, when I asked if his participation was a show of support for Russia’s invasion.
Malik, one of the contestants
“Are you not turning a blind eye to Russia’s aggression?” I countered.
“I have no idea about it,” he said. “I have no idea about the current situation that’s happening. I don’t want to speak about that as well.”
Eurovision legends Abba would almost certainly not make the Russian contest guest list. Pic: AP
Really? He had no idea? But before I could go on, I felt a forceful hand on my shoulder and a minder stepped in.
The intervention was even quicker when it came to speaking to Brazil’s act. As soon as I mentioned the word Ukraine, I was drowned out by shouts of “no, no, no, no” and the duo were ushered away.
Brazilian contestants, duo Luciano Calazans and Thais Nader
Where’s the glitter?
Intervision is not just a reaction to Russia’s recent exclusion from Eurosivion, however, it’s also a reaction to the contest’s values and what it’s come to represent.
Its celebration of sexual diversity and LGBTQ+ rights are seen as a symbol of what the Kremlin calls the West’s moral decline. In contrast, Intervision organisers say their contest will promote “traditional, family values.”
Judging by the costumes on show ahead of last week’s draw, that translates to less glitter, more embroidery, with a thematic emphasis on national heritage.
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So what do Russians think of Intervision’s resurrection? Can it replace Eurovision?
“We don’t miss Eurovision,” Galina and Tatiana say, underneath a collection of purple and pink ‘Intervision’ flags near Red Square.
“It was so horrible, especially lately. We didn’t like watching it at all.”
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Why are countries boycotting Eurovision?
Polina agrees, believing Russia’s version will be “more interesting”.
“Many countries that participated in Eurovision want to boycott it, so it’s interesting to see a more peaceful event now,” she says.
Igor is more circumspect. “I’d like to believe that this isn’t a political event,” he says, “but rather an event that unites nations and people.”
Intervision will succeed in uniting some nations. But at the same time, it may only deepen divisions with others – further evidence that Russia and the West are singing very different tunes.
Donald Trump will introduce a new $100,000 application fee for foreign worker visas.
A White House official said the US President is preparing to sign a proclamation today that will require a $100,000 application fee for H-1B visa, which covers highly-skilled foreign workers.
The charge is part of a broader immigration crackdown.
H-1B visas are meant to bring the best and brightest foreigners for high-skilled jobs that tech companies find difficult to fill with qualified Americans and other permanent residents.
The programme has drawn criticism for becoming a pipeline for overseas workers who are often willing to work for wages lower than those typically paid to US technology workers. Critics also argue that companies use H-1B visas to overlook Americans for jobs.
First lady Melania Trump, the former Melania Knauss, was granted an H1-B work visa in October 1996 to work as a model. She was born in Slovenia.
What is a H-1B visa?
The H-1B programme has been crucial for technology and staffing companies who rely on foreign workers.
Historically, these visas – 85,000 per year – have been doled out through a lottery system.
Donald Trump will introduce the charge as part of an immigration crackdown
India, the largest beneficiary of H-1B visas last year, accounted for 71% of approved beneficiaries.
China was second with 11.7%, according to government data.
Shares of IT services company, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp, fell by over 5% on Friday.
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