Connect with us

Published

on

What will 2025 mean for Gaza, Ukraine, trade wars and African tech? Our foreign correspondents set the scene for trends that will shape their region.

From elections in the EU to a bombastic Trump presidency to climate disruption, 2025 is shaping up to be a bumpy year.

But it’s not all bad news…

Immediate, dramatic change promised for the United States
by Mark Stone, US correspondent

Never mind the coming year, the coming month could be extremely consequential.

Donald Trump will become America’s 47th president on 20 January – Inauguration Day – and he has pledged immediate, dramatic change.

A year ago, I had lunch with a senior Trump adviser. We pondered a Trump victory.

The adviser projected that a victorious Mr Trump would sign numerous presidential “executive orders” on Inauguration Day.

More on Donald Trump

With a sweep of the presidential pen on a pile of papers on the balcony of the Capitol building literally moments after he takes the oath of office, Mr Trump would, the adviser predicted, undo as much of Biden’s legacy as possible and set the direction of America for the four years ahead.

Whether he signs orders at that moment or in the days after, Mr Trump has said he will “make heads spin”.

Republican Presidential nominee former President Donald Trump holds hands with former first lady Melania Trump after speaking to supporters at the Palm Beach County Convention Center during an election night watch party, Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
Image:
Donald Trump has his eye on fresh tariffs and radical immigration policies. Pic: AP

Even before inauguration, Congress will confirm or reject Mr Trump’s administration picks. We’ll discover if controversial choices like Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Kash Patel to head the FBI make the cut.

Domestically, prepare for radical new immigration policies. The mass deportations he has promised will be subject to legal battles but expect Team Trump to fight hard.

There’ll be mass pardons for those involved in the Jan 6th protests / insurrection / riots – divided Americans choose their descriptor dependent on their politics, and he’ll probably go after those who tried to take him down.

Then, the international ramifications of Trump 2.0: Ukraine, the Middle East, the climate agenda, trade tariffs.

On climate – the expectation is that Trump will (again) withdraw the US from the Paris climate commitments, thus rendering America no longer beholden to carbon emissions reductions targets.

On Ukraine, he has said he could bring peace in 24 hours. We will, finally, see what that looks like and the extent to which it benefits one side or the other.

On the Middle East, Mr Trump has said there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office. How does that threat play out? No one knows.

There’s a chance that the combination of traits which define Donald Trump – unpredictable, transactional, threatening, spontaneous – will produce outcomes that look attractive at least in the short term; deals that Biden couldn’t get or wouldn’t take.

Brace for a month and a year of huge consequence.

Europe: Big beast elections, while some cosy up to Trump / political turmoil and turnover
by Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent

The year will start with both France and Germany, Europe’s two biggest beasts, facing political uncertainty.

The focus will first be on Berlin – Friedrich Merz is likely to end up as Germany’s chancellor, moving his country more to the right.

He, like a growing number of European politicians, will say his priority is controlling migration. The far-right AfD could well ride that same wave to come second.

France’s parliamentary gridlock means the country’s politicians will stumble on in a constant foul mood. Another election looks certain.

Edouard Philippe, who served as French prime minister under Macron, will start positioning himself to replace Emmanuel Macron as president.

Look out for Giorgia Meloni to grow from “just” being Italy’s leader to becoming Europe’s conduit with Donald Trump. Another person on the up is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian PM who is now head of foreign affairs for the EU.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, attends during a bilateral meeting with Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, a day before the opening of the G20 Summit, in Rio de Janeiro, Sunday, Nov. 17, 2024. Pic: AP
Image:
Italian leader Giorgia Meloni may be further on the up. Pic: AP

Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo will remain high, and look out for flashpoints in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh. Hungary will cause more diplomatic mischief.

Bulgaria will adopt the Euro, Romania will finally elect a president. Oh, and journeys between the UK and the EU will become clunkier as the new ETIAS travel permit scheme is launched.

The Middle East: anything but predictable
by Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent

If the extraordinary events of 2024 taught or reminded us of anything, it was that the Middle East is anything but predictable.

2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel after the military gains of the past 12 months and unexpected downfall of Bashar al Assad over the border in Syria.

But the hostage situation remains an unresolved and deeply painful situation for Israelis, and time is running out if Donald Trump’s reported demand for a Gaza ceasefire is to be realised before his inauguration on 20 January.

Despite recent optimism around negotiations, differences remain between Hamas and Israel. But a ceasefire remains likely and the best way to release the 100 hostages that remain in captivity.

Any truce will probably be temporary, however, and there is every indication Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable with calls for a permanent occupation growing amongst far-right Israeli politicians.

There is little hope of imminent respite for the Gazan people with no “day-after” plan proposed. And unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves dramatically and rapidly, Israel’s international reputation will continue to suffer as the International Court of Justice considers accusations of genocide.

The recent escalation in attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have caused little material damage to Israel but have created new uncertainty on another front.

Netanyahu is surely tempted to strike a weakened Iran, both to deter the Houthis and degrade the country’s nuclear programme, but might be dissuaded if he doesn’t get support from the incoming US president.

That temptation might become too great however if Tehran attempts to accelerate its nuclear programme as a way of making up for the loss of its ally Assad in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The elderly Iranian Supreme Leader’s health and authority has been the source of much speculation in recent months so that will be something to keep a close eye on.

Syria’s new leaders will need to stabilise the country and bring together the various religious and militant factions otherwise the euphoric optimism seen after Assad’s overthrowing risks a new civil war.

And finally, both Trump and Netanyahu have expressed their hopes for a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and it would certainly be a huge boon to the latter as he eyes re-election in 2026.

But as long as the war in Gaza continues, Riyadh is unlikely to gift Bibi that historic agreement, certainly not without considerable concessions for the Palestinian people, which Netanyahu is unlikely to concede.

Trump will challenge China and China will challenge global world order
by Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent in Beijing

The momentum in China-US competition could really pick up the pace next year if Donald Trump puts his trade threats into action.

Before Americans went to the polls, Trump threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could spark a global trade war and economic meltdown.

Since the election, he has said he’s planning an extra 10% on top of existing tariffs on Chinese products.

Beijing is bracing for trouble and is already engaged in retaliatory trade action with the US. Watch this issue heat up next year.

An employee works at a semiconductor manufacturer of automobile chips in Binzhou city in east China's Shandong province Wednesday, Dec. 25, 2024. U.S. has announced to raise the tariff on Chinese chips from 25% to 50% next year. Pic: FeatureChina via AP
Image:
The US is expected to increase tariffs on Chinese chips next year as competition heats up. Pic: FeatureChina via AP

Diplomatically, while there are efforts to turn the fraught UK-China relationship around, it’s likely spying allegations and accusations of Chinese political interference – which Beijing vehemently denies – will continue to test both countries.

UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Beijing in 2024 and Chancellor Rachael Reeves is expected to come in January.

In Asia and around the world, the growing power of China remains a major issue. Its influence is reaching deep into “Global South” countries. Many are open to Chinese overtures for trade, tech and diplomatic support.

In the middle of this great global reshaping, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are challenging the US-led “rules-based” global order.

Keep an eye on how these countries help each other, diplomatically, militarily and economically.

They may have little in common. But they all have a desire to see an alternative to the hegemony of the West.

Fighting in Ukraine will finally cease next year
by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent

I predict the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. Or perhaps more accurately: the fighting will stop and the conflict will be frozen.

Both sides have recently indicated a willingness to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told Sky News he’d be willing to cede territory, while Vladimir Putin said Russia was ready to compromise.

It’s a dramatic shift in tone, brought about by the election of Donald Trump. Talks and a deal feel inevitable.

Whatever the outcome, Russia will present it as a win.

A firefighter works at the site of residential buildings hit by a Russian drone strike in Kharkiv.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Pic: Reuters

I think the Kremlin will hope to conclude negotiations before 9 May, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. The aim will be for a double celebration.

But the problems won’t end there for Vladimir Putin. With surging inflation, a sliding rouble and weak productivity, the economy will be the next battle.

In Africa, more protests, more climate disasters and more tech
by Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent

The year is ending with building protest movements in Mozambique, Angola and Kenya. Crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators have led to deaths that are fuelling further dissent.

The El Nino weather phenomenon drove drought to new levels in southern Africa this year and propelled a cyclone season that started early with the deadly Chido in Mayotte.

Although El Nino dissipated in the summer, many countries will continue to suffer its impacts next year due, including in the form of severe food shortages.

Africa already bears the brunt of climate change, and with the planet getting hotter still, cruelly more extreme weather is on the way to batter homes, health and livelihoods.

A barricade burns Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024 in Mozambique's capital, Maputo, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024 in protests that have engulfed the country after the opposition rejected the results of the country's polls which saw the Frelimo party extend its 58-year rule. (AP Photo/Carlos Uqueio)

Not all news is negative, though.

Tech innovation in Africa is expected to continue as young people find ways to survive and thrive in tough job markets and rising costs of living.

Continue Reading

World

‘At least 798 killed’ at Gaza aid points – as medical charity warns acute malnutrition at all-time high

Published

on

By

'At least 798 killed' at Gaza aid points - as medical charity warns acute malnutrition at all-time high

At least 798 people in Gaza have reportedly been killed while receiving aid in the past six weeks – while acute malnutrition is said to have reached an all-time high.

The UN human rights office said 615 of the deaths – between 27 May and 7 July – were “in the vicinity” of sites run by the controversial US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

A further 183 people killed were “presumably on the route of aid convoys,” said Ravina Shamdasani, from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Its figures are based on a range of sources, including hospitals, cemeteries, and families in the Gaza Strip, as well as non-governmental organisations (NGOs), its partners on the ground, and Hamas-run health authorities.

Aid agency Project Hope said on Thursday that 10 children were among at least 15 people killed as they waited for its clinic in Deir al Balah to open.

Omar Meshmesh carries the body of his three-year-old niece Aya - one of the victims of the clinic attack. Pic: AP
Image:
Ten children were reportedly killed when Israel attacked near a clinic on Thursday. Pic: AP

The GHF has claimed the UN figures are “false and misleading” and has repeatedly denied any violence at or around its sites.

Meanwhile, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) – also known as Doctors Without Borders – said two of its sites were seeing their worst-ever levels of severe malnutrition.

Cases at its Gaza City clinic are said to have tripled from 293 in May to 983 in early July.

“Over 700 pregnant or breastfeeding women and nearly 500 children are now receiving emergency nutritional care,” MSF said.

The humanitarian medical charity said food prices were at extreme levels, with sugar at $766 (£567) per kilo and flour $30 (£22) per kilo, and many families surviving on one meal of rice or lentils a day.

It’s a major concern for the estimated 55,000 pregnant women in Gaza, who risk miscarriage, stillbirth and malnourished infants because of the shortages.

The GHF began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, after Israel eased its 11-week blockade of aid into the coastal territory.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

US aid contractors claim live ammo fired at Palestinians

It has four distribution centres, three of which are in the southern Gaza Strip.

The sites, kept off-limits to independent media, are guarded by private security contractors and located in zones where the Israeli military operates.

Palestinian witnesses say Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire towards crowds of people going to receive aid.

The Israeli military says it has fired warning shots at people who have behaved in what it says is a suspicious manner.

It says its forces operate near the aid sites to stop supplies from falling into the hands of militants.

Read more:
GHF aid distribution linked to increased deaths
Gaza situation ‘apocalyptic’, says UN expert

After the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians trying to reach the aid hubs, the United Nations has called the GHF’s aid model “inherently unsafe” and a violation of humanitarian impartiality standards.

Follow The World
Follow The World

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday

Tap to follow

In response, a GHF spokesperson said: “The fact is the most deadly attacks on aid sites have been linked to UN convoys.”

The GHF says it has delivered more than 70 million meals to Gazans in five weeks and claims other humanitarian groups had “nearly all of their aid looted” by Hamas or criminal gangs.

Continue Reading

World

At least 798 people have been killed at Gaza aid points, the UN says

Published

on

By

'At least 798 killed' at Gaza aid points - as medical charity warns acute malnutrition at all-time high

At least 798 people in Gaza have been killed while receiving aid in six weeks, the UN human rights office has said.

A spokesperson for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said 615 of the killings were “in the vicinity” of sites run by the controversial US and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF).

A further 183 people killed were “presumably on the route of aid convoys,” Ravina Shamdasani told reporters in Geneva.

The office said its figures are based on numbers from a range of sources, including hospitals, cemeteries and families in the Gaza Strip, as well as NGOs, its partners on the ground and the Hamas-run health authorities.

The GHF has claimed the figures are “false and misleading”. It has repeatedly denied there has been any violence at or around its sites.

The organisation began distributing food packages in Gaza at the end of May, after Israel eased its 11-week blockade of aid into the enclave.

It has four distribution centres, three of which are in the southern Gaza Strip. The sites, kept off-limits to independent media, are guarded by private security contractors and located in zones where the Israeli military operates.

Palestinian witnesses say Israeli forces have repeatedly opened fire towards crowds of people going to receive aid.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

US aid contractors claim live ammo fired at Palestinians

The Israeli military says it has fired warning shots at people who have behaved in what they say is a suspicious manner.

It says its forces operate near the aid sites to stop supplies falling into the hands of militants.

Read more:
GHF aid distribution linked to increased deaths
Gaza situation ‘apocalyptic’, says UN expert

After the deaths of hundreds of Palestinians trying to reach the aid hubs, the United Nations has called the GHF’s aid model “inherently unsafe” and a violation of humanitarian impartiality standards.

Follow The World
Follow The World

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday

Tap to follow

In response, a GHF spokesperson told the Reuters news agency: “The fact is the most deadly attacks on aid sites have been linked to UN convoys.”

The GHF says it has delivered more than 70 million meals to Gazans in five weeks and claims other humanitarian groups had “nearly all of their aid looted” by Hamas or criminal gangs.

Continue Reading

World

Ten children among at least 15 killed waiting for Gaza health clinic to open, says aid group

Published

on

By

Ten children among at least 15 killed waiting for Gaza health clinic to open, says aid group

Ten children and two women are among at least 15 killed in an airstrike near a Gaza health clinic, according to an aid organisation.

Project Hope said it happened this morning near Altayara Junction, in Deir al Balah, as patients waited for the clinic to open.

The organisation’s president called it a “blatant violation of international humanitarian law, and a stark reminder that no one and no place is safe in Gaza“.

“No child waiting for food and medicine should face the risk of being bombed,” added the group’s project manager, Dr Mithqal Abutaha.

“It was a horrific scene. People had to come seeking health and support, instead they faced death.”

Operations at the clinic – which provides a range of health and maternity services – have been suspended.

Some of the children were reportedly waiting to receive nutritional supplements, necessary due to the dire shortage of food being allowed into Gaza.

More on Gaza

Israel‘s military is investigating and said it was targeting a militant who took part in the 7 October terror attack.

“The IDF [Israel Defence Force] regrets any harm to uninvolved individuals and operates to minimize harm as much as possible,” added.

The deaths come as an agreement over a 60-day truce hangs in the balance – with President Trump cautiously saying it could happen “this week, or next week”.

Elsewhere in Gaza, the Nasser Hospital reported another 21 deaths in airstrikes in Khan Younis and in the nearby coastal area of Muwasi.

It said three children and their mother were among the dead.

Israel said its troops have been dismantling more than 130 Hamas infrastructure sites in Khan Younis over the past week, including missile launch sites, weapons storage facilities and a 500m tunnel.

On Wednesday, a soldier was shot dead when militants burst out of a tunnel and tried to abduct him, the military added.

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Do Trump and Netanyahu really get along?

Eighteen soldiers have been killed in the past three weeks – one of the deadliest periods for the Israeli army in months.

A 22-year-old Israeli man was also killed on Thursday by two attackers in a supermarket in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, said the Magen David Adom emergency service.

People on site reportedly shot and killed the attackers but information on their identity has so far not been released.

Read more:
IDF chief says conditions ‘created’ for Gaza ceasefire
What is the possible Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal ?

Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player

Lack of food and water ‘lethal’ for Gaza children

Negotiations over a proposed 60-day ceasefire are ongoing and President Trump reportedly put “heavy” pressure on Israel’s leader, who visited the US this week.

A major sticking point is said to be the status of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) inside Gaza during the 60-day ceasefire and beyond, should it last longer.

However, Sky News understands the Israeli government thinks the chances of a permanent truce are “questionable”.

Follow the World
Follow the World

Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday

Tap to follow

More than 57,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war – more than half are women and children, according to Gaza’s Hamas-controlled health ministry.

Its figure does not differentiate between civilians and fighters.

The war began in October 2023 after Hamas killed around 1,200 people in Israel and kidnapped 251 others.

Some of them remain In Gaza and are a crucial part of ceasefire negotiations, which also include a planned surge in humanitarian aid into the strip.

Continue Reading

Trending