What will 2025 mean for Gaza, Ukraine, trade wars and African tech? Our foreign correspondents set the scene for trends that will shape their region.
From elections in the EU to a bombastic Trump presidency to climate disruption, 2025 is shaping up to be a bumpy year.
But it’s not all bad news…
Immediate, dramatic change promised for the United States by Mark Stone, US correspondent
Never mind the coming year, the coming month could be extremely consequential.
Donald Trump will become America’s 47th president on 20 January – Inauguration Day – and he has pledged immediate, dramatic change.
A year ago, I had lunch with a senior Trump adviser. We pondered a Trump victory.
The adviser projected that a victorious Mr Trump would sign numerous presidential “executive orders” on Inauguration Day.
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With a sweep of the presidential pen on a pile of papers on the balcony of the Capitol building literally moments after he takes the oath of office, Mr Trump would, the adviser predicted, undo as much of Biden’s legacy as possible and set the direction of America for the four years ahead.
Whether he signs orders at that moment or in the days after, Mr Trump has said he will “make heads spin”.
Image: Donald Trump has his eye on fresh tariffs and radical immigration policies. Pic: AP
Even before inauguration, Congress will confirm or reject Mr Trump’s administration picks. We’ll discover if controversial choices like Pete Hegseth for defense secretary or Kash Patel to head the FBI make the cut.
Domestically, prepare for radical new immigration policies. The mass deportations he has promised will be subject to legal battles but expect Team Trump to fight hard.
There’ll be mass pardons for those involved in the Jan 6th protests / insurrection / riots – divided Americans choose their descriptor dependent on their politics, and he’ll probably go after those who tried to take him down.
Then, the international ramifications of Trump 2.0: Ukraine, the Middle East, the climate agenda, trade tariffs.
On climate – the expectation is that Trump will (again) withdraw the US from the Paris climate commitments, thus rendering America no longer beholden to carbon emissions reductions targets.
On Ukraine, he has said he could bring peace in 24 hours. We will, finally, see what that looks like and the extent to which it benefits one side or the other.
On the Middle East, Mr Trump has said there will be “all hell to pay” if the hostages are not released from Gaza by the time he takes office. How does that threat play out? No one knows.
There’s a chance that the combination of traits which define Donald Trump – unpredictable, transactional, threatening, spontaneous – will produce outcomes that look attractive at least in the short term; deals that Biden couldn’t get or wouldn’t take.
Brace for a month and a year of huge consequence.
Europe: Big beast elections, while some cosy up to Trump / political turmoil and turnover by Adam Parsons, Europe correspondent
The year will start with both France and Germany, Europe’s two biggest beasts, facing political uncertainty.
The focus will first be on Berlin – Friedrich Merz is likely to end up as Germany’s chancellor, moving his country more to the right.
He, like a growing number of European politicians, will say his priority is controlling migration. The far-right AfD could well ride that same wave to come second.
France’s parliamentary gridlock means the country’s politicians will stumble on in a constant foul mood. Another election looks certain.
Edouard Philippe, who served as French prime minister under Macron, will start positioning himself to replace Emmanuel Macron as president.
Look out for Giorgia Meloni to grow from “just” being Italy’s leader to becoming Europe’s conduit with Donald Trump. Another person on the up is Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian PM who is now head of foreign affairs for the EU.
Image: Italian leader Giorgia Meloni may be further on the up. Pic: AP
Tensions between Serbia and Kosovo will remain high, and look out for flashpoints in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh. Hungary will cause more diplomatic mischief.
Bulgaria will adopt the Euro, Romania will finally elect a president. Oh, and journeys between the UK and the EU will become clunkier as the new ETIAS travel permit scheme is launched.
The Middle East: anything but predictable by Alistair Bunkall, Middle East correspondent
If the extraordinary events of 2024 taught or reminded us of anything, it was that the Middle East is anything but predictable.
2025 is likely to be a year of consolidation for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel after the military gains of the past 12 months and unexpected downfall of Bashar al Assad over the border in Syria.
But the hostage situation remains an unresolved and deeply painful situation for Israelis, and time is running out if Donald Trump’s reported demand for a Gaza ceasefire is to be realised before his inauguration on 20 January.
Despite recent optimism around negotiations, differences remain between Hamas and Israel. But a ceasefire remains likely and the best way to release the 100 hostages that remain in captivity.
Any truce will probably be temporary, however, and there is every indication Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for the foreseeable with calls for a permanent occupation growing amongst far-right Israeli politicians.
There is little hope of imminent respite for the Gazan people with no “day-after” plan proposed. And unless the humanitarian situation in Gaza improves dramatically and rapidly, Israel’s international reputation will continue to suffer as the International Court of Justice considers accusations of genocide.
The recent escalation in attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen have caused little material damage to Israel but have created new uncertainty on another front.
Netanyahu is surely tempted to strike a weakened Iran, both to deter the Houthis and degrade the country’s nuclear programme, but might be dissuaded if he doesn’t get support from the incoming US president.
That temptation might become too great however if Tehran attempts to accelerate its nuclear programme as a way of making up for the loss of its ally Assad in Syria and the degradation of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The elderly Iranian Supreme Leader’s health and authority has been the source of much speculation in recent months so that will be something to keep a close eye on.
Syria’s new leaders will need to stabilise the country and bring together the various religious and militant factions otherwise the euphoric optimism seen after Assad’s overthrowing risks a new civil war.
And finally, both Trump and Netanyahu have expressed their hopes for a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal and it would certainly be a huge boon to the latter as he eyes re-election in 2026.
But as long as the war in Gaza continues, Riyadh is unlikely to gift Bibi that historic agreement, certainly not without considerable concessions for the Palestinian people, which Netanyahu is unlikely to concede.
Trump will challenge China and China will challenge global world order by Nicole Johnston, Asia correspondent in Beijing
The momentum in China-US competition could really pick up the pace next year if Donald Trump puts his trade threats into action.
Before Americans went to the polls, Trump threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could spark a global trade war and economic meltdown.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy visited Beijing in 2024 and Chancellor Rachael Reeves is expected to come in January.
In Asia and around the world, the growing power of China remains a major issue. Its influence is reaching deep into “Global South” countries. Many are open to Chinese overtures for trade, tech and diplomatic support.
In the middle of this great global reshaping, China, Russia, North Korea and Iran are challenging the US-led “rules-based” global order.
Keep an eye on how these countries help each other, diplomatically, militarily and economically.
They may have little in common. But they all have a desire to see an alternative to the hegemony of the West.
Fighting in Ukraine will finally cease next year by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
I predict the war in Ukraine will end in 2025. Or perhaps more accurately: the fighting will stop and the conflict will be frozen.
Both sides have recently indicated a willingness to make concessions in order to achieve a peace agreement.
It’s a dramatic shift in tone, brought about by the election of Donald Trump. Talks and a deal feel inevitable.
Whatever the outcome, Russia will present it as a win.
Image: Pic: Reuters
I think the Kremlin will hope to conclude negotiations before 9 May, which marks the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany. The aim will be for a double celebration.
But the problems won’t end there for Vladimir Putin. With surging inflation, a sliding rouble and weak productivity, the economy will be the next battle.
In Africa, more protests, more climate disasters and more tech by Yousra Elbagir, Africa correspondent
The year is ending with buildingprotest movements in Mozambique, Angola and Kenya. Crackdowns on anti-government demonstrators have led to deaths that are fuelling further dissent.
The El Nino weather phenomenon drove drought to new levels in southern Africa this year and propelled a cyclone season that started early with the deadly Chido in Mayotte.
Although El Nino dissipated in the summer, many countries will continue to suffer its impacts next year due, including in the form of severe food shortages.
Africa already bears the brunt of climate change, and with the planet getting hotter still, cruelly more extreme weather is on the way to batter homes, health and livelihoods.
Not all news is negative, though.
Tech innovation in Africa is expected to continue as young people find ways to survive and thrive in tough job markets and rising costs of living.
Romania has said a drone breached its airspace during a Russian attack on neighbouring Ukraine.
Fighter jets were scrambled on Saturday, coming close to taking down the aircraft as it was flying very low before it left national airspace toward Ukraine, defence minister Ionut Mosteanu said.
Romania is the latest NATO member state to report an incursion, with Poland deploying aircraft and closing an airport in the eastern city of Lublin on Saturday, three days after it shot down Russian drones in its airspace.
They are the first known shots fired by a member of the Western alliance during Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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Russian drones enter Polish airspace: What we know
Meanwhile, military exercises are taking place over the Barents Sea, with Russia and Belarus conducting joint drills.
Russian MiG-31 fighter jets equipped with hypersonic ballistic missiles completed a four-hour flight over the neutral waters as part of ongoing “Zapad 2025” military exercises, the Interfax news agency reported on Saturday.
Romania has had Russian drone fragments fall on to its territory repeatedly since Russia began waging its full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.
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Two F-16 fighter jets were initially scrambled by Romania, and later two Eurofighters.
Citizens in the southeastern county of Tulcea near the Danube and its Ukrainian border were warned to take cover, the defence ministry said.
The ministry said the drone dropped off their radar 20km (12 miles) southwest of the village of Chilia Veche.
While helicopters were surveying the area looking for possible drone parts, Mr Mosteanu told private television station Antena 3 that “all information at this moment indicates the drone exited airspace to Ukraine”.
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Russia getting ‘ready for war with NATO’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on social media that data showed the drone breached about 10km (six miles) into Romanian territory and operated in NATO airspace for around 50 minutes.
He said Belarusian airspace was also used for entry into Ukraine’s airspace.
Mr Zelenskyy described the reported incursion as “an obvious expansion of the war by Russia,” and called for “tariffs against Russian trade” and a “collective defence”.
He warned: “Do not wait for dozens of “shaheds” [Iranian-designed drones] and ballistic missiles before finally making decisions.”
NATO has said it plans to strengthen eastern flank defence, following earlier Polish airspace violations.
US secretary of state Marco Rubio called the Polish incursion “unacceptable and unfortunate and dangerous”, and said while it was unclear if the drones were intentionally sent to Poland, if it was the case, it would be “a highly escalatory move”.
Image: Donald Trump boarding Air Force One on Saturday. Pic: Reuters
On Saturday, Donald Trump said on his Truth Social platform that he was “ready to do major sanctions on Russia”, but only when all NATO nations “do the same thing” and “stop buying oil from Russia”.
Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened sanctions against Moscow, so far without any action.
The president also said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.
NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.
The war in Ukraine would end if all NATO countries stopped buying oil from Russia, Donald Trump has said.
The US president, in a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, said the alliance’s commitment to winning the war “has been far less than 100%” and the purchase of Russian oil by some members is “shocking”.
Doing so “greatly weakens your negotiating position and bargaining power, over Russia,” he said.
NATO member Turkey has been the third largest buyer of Russian oil since 2023, after China and India, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, with fellow members Hungary and Slovakia also buying energy supplies from Moscow.
A NATO ban on the practice plus tariffs on China would “also be of great help in ENDING this deadly, but RIDICULOUS, WAR”, he added.
The president said NATO members should also put 50% to 100% tariffs on China – and only withdraw them if the conflict ends.
‘China’s grip’ on Russia
“China has a strong control, and even grip, over Russia,” Mr Trump posted, and powerful tariffs “will break that grip”.
The US president has already placed a 25% import tax on goods from India over its buying of Russian energy products.
He did not include in that list Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion.
Image: President Donald Trump at a New York Yankees baseball game on Thursday. Pic: AP
Image: Pic: AP
Village changes hands
On the battlefield on Saturday, Russian troops took control of the village of Novomykolaivka in Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region, the Russian Defence Ministry said.
A drone attack hit an oil refinery in the city of Ufa, around 870 miles (1,400km) from the border with Ukraine, the local governor said, calling it a terrorist incident.
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Drones shot down in Poland
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Friday the 32-nation alliance would place military equipment on the border with Belarus, Russia and Ukraine to deter potential Russian aggression.
Operation ‘Eastern Sentry’ followed Wednesday’s provocative incursion by multiple Russian drones into the airspace of Poland, another NATO member.
Polish forces shot down the drones, which Moscow said went astray because they were jammed.
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Prince Harry’s surprise visit to Ukraine
Prince Harry’s surprise visit
The Duke of Sussex made a surprise visit to Ukraine on Friday, promising to do “everything possible” to help the recovery of injured military staff.
Travelling on an overnight train to Kyiv, Prince Harry, who has since left the country, told The Guardian: “We cannot stop the war but what we can do is do everything we can to help the recovery process.
“We have to keep it [the war] in the forefront of people’s minds. I hope this trip will help to bring it home to people because it’s easy to become desensitised to what has been going on.”
Aid workers say the number of people leaving has spiked in recent weeks, but many families remain stuck due to difficulties with transportation and housing.
Others have been displaced many times and do not want to move again, not trusting that anywhere in the Strip is safe.
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Earlier this month: IDF drops evacuation flyers on Gaza before tower bombed
In a message shared on social media on Saturday, Israel’s army told the remaining Palestinians in Gaza City to “leave immediately” and move south into what it is calling a humanitarian zone.
Sites in southern Gaza, where Israel is telling people to go, are overcrowded, the United Nations has said.
A spokesperson for the Israeli army said more than 250,000 people have left Gaza City – but the UN puts the number at around 100,000 between mid-August and mid-September.
The UN and aid groups have warned that displacing hundreds of thousands of people will exacerbate the dire humanitarian crisis in the enclave.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry said on Saturday that seven people, including children, died from malnutrition-related causes over the past 24 hours.
Israel has said it now controls 75% of Gaza, much of which has been reduced to fields of rubble. It has vowed to take the rest.
The current conflict followed Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, when militants killed 1,200 people and took around 250 people hostage.
Israel’s retaliatory offensive has killed at least 64,803 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s health authorities. It does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its count.