The College Football Playoff is back to a familiar place. The semifinals are set with four teams left competing for the national title.

With its 23-10 Allstate Sugar Bowl win against Georgia on Thursday, Notre Dame will face Penn State on Jan. 9 in the Capital One Orange Bowl at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). On New Year’s Eve, Penn State advanced when it beat Boise State 31-14 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl.

Texas needed double overtime to escape a gritty Arizona State team on New Year’s Day 39-31 and the Longhorns will face Ohio State, which trounced Oregon 41-21 in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN) on Jan. 10 in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic.

Here’s an early look at the semifinal matchups between the four remaining teams in the 12-team field. — Heather Dinich

Jump to:
Penn State vs. Notre Dame
Texas vs. Ohio State

When: Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN

What we learned in the quarterfinals: Penn State quarterback Drew Allar is closer to reaching his full NFL draft potential. When Allar was recruited to Penn State, it was with the expectation that he was talented enough to help lead the program to the national stage. Well, the Nittany Lions are here, but not without some bumps along the way. It has been a learning curve for Allar, though some of the throws he made against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl were NFL-caliber. But what elevated his game was his 13.8 yards per pass attempt, his highest in a start in his career. And all three of his touchdowns came on throws of at least 10 yards, tying his career high. If Allar can lead the Nittany Lions to new heights, his draft stock will rise with them.

“He possesses a lot of raw talent and plays well within their system,” one NFL GM told ESPN. “There’s something still amiss though. Nevertheless, he’s finally making big-time throws and demonstrating some of the potential that was previously mentioned. I’m cautiously optimistic about his future.”

X factor: DE Abdul Carter. The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year was injured in the first half against Boise State, and on Thursday posted a picture on X of Darth Vader in a bacta tank, perhaps teasing his comeback. A school spokesman said Thursday the team had no further update. Penn State’s defense was still elite without Carter against Boise State, but the return of the Nittany Lions’ best edge rusher and likely first-round NFL draft pick would be a huge boost in the biggest game to date. Penn State coach James Franklin hasn’t given any update beyond his comments after the Fiesta Bowl. “Obviously … the safety and health and welfare of our guys is priority number one,” Franklin said. “But then, I know Abdul will want to play next week and he’ll do everything in his power to play next week, if he’s able to.”

How Penn State wins: Make Notre Dame one-dimensional by taking away its running game and forcing the Irish into third-and-long situations. Points weren’t easy to come by against a stingy Georgia defense, as Notre Dame’s best offense was a kickoff return for a touchdown to start the second half and a short field created from a turnover to end the first half. If Penn State can do what it did against Boise State — when it limited Ashton Jeanty to his lowest rushing total of the season — Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard will have a long day trying to create explosive plays in the passing game. — Heather Dinich

What we learned in the quarterfinals: The Notre Dame defense was as good as advertised against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The Fighting Irish went into the game ranked No. 2 in the FBS in scoring defense, giving up 13.8 points. The defense surrendered only a field goal in the first half. The Bulldogs looked to be headed for a touchdown late in the first quarter, but Irish safety Adon Shuler jarred the ball loose from tailback Trevor Etienne. Jaiden Ausberry recovered at the Notre Dame 10. After the Irish went ahead 6-3 on a 48-yard field goal with 38 seconds left in the first half, their defense came up with the biggest play of the game. On first-and-10 at the Georgia 25, defensive end RJ Oben sacked quarterback Gunner Stockton, knocking the ball loose. Tackle Junior Tuihalamaka recovered the fumble at the Georgia 13. Quarterback Riley Leonard threw a 13-yard touchdown to Beaux Collins on the next play, giving the Irish a 13-3 lead. The Irish did a nice job against the run, limiting the Bulldogs to 101 yards before sacks, and they dropped Stockton four times.

X factor: Leonard. The Notre Dame offense did just enough against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl, and the one-time Duke transfer was a big reason why. He had 90 yards on 15-for-29 passing and ran 14 times for 80 yards. With the Bulldogs largely containing tailbacks Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price (they combined for 56 yards on 16 carries), Leonard had to carry much of the offense himself. He made a couple of huge runs for first downs, along with tossing the touchdown to Collins. Notre Dame’s receivers struggled to get much separation against Georgia’s secondary, and it probably won’t get much easier against the Nittany Lions. Penn State is No. 8 in the FBS in run defense, giving up 100.9 yards per game. Leonard might have to do even more if the Irish are going to win the Orange Bowl.

How Notre Dame wins: Given Notre Dame’s limitations on offense (at least against very good defenses), its defense is going to have to continue to force turnovers and get off the field on third down, which is exactly what it did against Georgia. Getting pressure on Allar is going to be a priority. Another big play on special teams, like Jayden Harrison‘s 98-yard kickoff return for a touchdown to open up the second half against the Bulldogs, wouldn’t hurt either. Irish kicker Mitch Jeter was more than solid against Georgia, converting three field goal attempts longer than 40 yards. Notre Dame also needs to clean up its 10 penalties. — Mark Schlabach

When: Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN

What we learned in the quarterfinals: Texas has gone through quite an identity crisis over the past six weeks on offense. The Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to not being able to run in the SEC championship, back to rushing domination in the first round against Clemson, back to struggling on the ground against Arizona State. So which Texas rushing attack will show up against Ohio State? There is no doubt that Texas will need a bigger rushing effort to beat the Buckeyes. Perhaps offensive tackle Cameron Williams will be healthy enough to play and help make a difference. Either way, we learned that Texas still has work to do to put together a complete offensive performance.

X factor: TE Gunnar Helm. Texas likes to use its tight ends in the offense coach Steve Sarkisian runs, and Helm came up huge in the win over Arizona State, with three catches for 56 yards — and the winning touchdown in overtime. Helm was also big in the opening-round win over Clemson with six catches for 77 yards and a score. Sarkisian praised him leading into the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, saying, “The multiplicity of the things that the tight end has to do in our systems make him extremely valuable. When you have a good one, I think that that makes our lives a lot easier from a playcaller perspective.”

How Texas wins: Texas has been ranked the No. 1 defense in the country for the bulk of the season for a reason, and we saw that for large swaths of its win over Arizona State. The Longhorns will have to continue to set the tone up front and get after Will Howard to make him uncomfortable. Michigan provided the blueprint for winning in November, when it dominated the Buckeyes on both lines of scrimmage. Texas certainly has the potential to do that with its defensive and offensive fronts. But the Longhorns will have to absolutely be better on their offensive line to have any shot to win. They were overwhelmed at times by a smaller Arizona State defensive front. — Andrea Adelson

What we learned in the quarterfinals: No one can stop Jeremiah Smith, and by extension, the Ohio State offense. Against an Oregon team that defeated them in October, the Buckeyes came out of the gates at the Rose Bowl ready to prove the Ducks didn’t have their number. Thanks to Smith, who caught five balls for 161 yards and had two touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards in the first half alone (he finished with 187 yards), Ohio State looked to be playing at a different speed, as Oregon seemed helpless on both sides of the ball. The freshman wide receiver was a blur, speeding past the Ducks’ secondary with ease while making his case for being not just the best freshman in the country — or the best wide receiver — but one of the best players in the sport. It helped that nearly every Ohio State skill player who touched the ball found gold — running back TreVeyon Henderson averaged double-digit yards per carry while adding two touchdowns, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka added his own tremendous play in a 42-yard touchdown grab in the first half. It was all a reminder that the best version of this Buckeyes team might just be unstoppable.

X factor: Henderson. Texas’ defense might have no choice but to sell out to stop Smith, and though Smith might still get his, it will certainly open things up for other wideouts in the Buckeyes’ offense in addition to Henderson. The senior has not been particularly splashy this season, but he has been consistent. But in Pasadena, he looked as good as ever, recording his first 100-yard game of the season. There’s no question that Ohio State’s air game is its strength, but if it can pair it with more consistent running from Henderson, the Longhorns will have a tough time on defense.

How Ohio State wins: Short of doing exactly what they did to dominate Oregon in Pasadena, the Buckeyes now have a clear recipe for success. The confidence they inherited from avenging their loss to the Ducks should be enough proof they have the talent and execution to beat any team, especially Texas. A healthy dose of Smith will be essential, and the stout defense that has had more sacks than any other playoff team so far will need to pressure Quinn Ewers, but a lot will certainly fall on Will Howard‘s shoulders. In the Rose Bowl, Howard looked as comfortable as he has all season. He had no crucial mistakes, threw three touchdown passes and found Smith over and over again to much success. He’ll have to do more of the same in the Cotton Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti