Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?
It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.
If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.
For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.
All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.
But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.
This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.
That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.
Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.
With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.
And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.
As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.
According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”
Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.
The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.
Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.
Photographed in a beam of sunlight, Prince William walked through Westminster Abbey with the King behind him.
The ornate robes of the Order of the Bath service, two weeks ago, felt like a world away from the more modern image he wants to portray.
But as a man bestowed with so many traditional titles, it’s a new role he’s shaping for himself that is more intriguing – William, the quiet disruptor.
Image: The Prince of Wales at the Order of the Bath Service at Westminster Abbey. Pic: Andrew Parsons / Kensington Palace
In a week when Time Magazine named the Prince and Princess of Wales in its top 100 philanthropists list for “modernising royal philanthropy”, I spent the week following the prince on various engagements.
None of them particularly headline-grabbing, but all examples of how he’s setting out to do things differently, or underlining the challenges, and potential criticisms, he faces doing things his own way.
Take Tuesday, for example.
We weren’t expecting him to turn up as we waited at the Soho Hotel in London to watch a new series of films about the dangers faced by wildlife rangers, a project described as “the brainchild” of Prince William.
But all of a sudden, there he was in the room, taking the mic to explain what it really means to him.
Speaking about his drive to “give a voice to the voiceless”, it was indicative of what feels like a greater desire from him to articulate more publicly what he stands for.
Since November, when he described how he wanted to carry out his duties with “a smaller r in the royal”, you’ve got the sense William, and his team, have further wanted to cement in our minds where he sees his role.
From conversations this week, with those who work closely with him, the word “convening” came up time and again; the prince doesn’t want to waste what he knows is a unique position, to bring people together, start conversations and support those who are already doing amazing things in their communities.
Image: Prince William recording the opening scenes for a documentary about rangers and the dangers they face.
Pic: PA
Shifting the dial
But this isn’t just about him personally.
This is now a man whose vision for the monarchy, I’m told, is increasingly driven by a desire to “shift the dial on global leadership” where others may be failing.
With palace sources telling me he’d be more than happy to “be acknowledged” as a quiet disruptor, despite the criticism his new ways of working might bring.
Those who’ve known him a long time will tell you this compulsion to do things differently has been there for some time.
Image: Prince William during a recent royal visit.
Pic: PA
Dr Tessy Ojo, the chief executive from The Diana Award, has worked with Prince William and Prince Harry for over 20 years.
She said: “They would never do royal engagements from the sense of cutting the ribbon or simply being poster people. We were very clearly warned if you wanted any form of engagement, it almost had to have a whole strategy behind it.”
She told me she has always sensed how much William appreciates the responsibility that comes with his role, especially in a world where “there’s a massive demand on leadership… there’s a lot of distrust on leaders”.
“What people wanted 40 years ago from their monarch is completely different,” she said.
“I think it’s super important that as the heir, as the next monarch, he’s very in tune with what the people want, and what people expect. And being able to be that 21st century monarch, who is a present dad, but also a leader who understands how to use your leadership for social good”.
A modern royal
Wednesday, and William walked into a sweaty, but infectiously positive, community hall in Leith in Edinburgh.
No ribbon cutting here, but this is the kind of visit the prince now sees as a big deal, “impact” the buzz word ahead of any engagement now.
A very lively game of football launching what they hope will be a long-term tie-up between the Royal Foundation (their charitable trust), Leith community centre and Street Soccer Scotland.
Image: The Prince of Wales playing football during the visit to Leith.
Pic: PA
Image: Pic: PA
On Thursday, the sight of a guard of honour saluting the prince and princess, as the national anthem was played alongside HMS Glasgow, just emphasised the regular handbrake turns they face from the more relaxed to the formal, as they want to make the monarchy feel connected and relevant.
Then there is family to consider, in a way that past generations just haven’t.
Their working diaries are now arranged around their children. They’ve made no secret of that.
On paper, it means fewer engagements compared to other members of the family, and it has led to mutterings of that word no one within the palace wants to hear: “workshy”.
Image: The Prince and Princess of Wales attend the naming ceremony for HMS Glasgow.
Pic: PA
Making an impact?
But talking to people in Glasgow, away from the royal visit, I overwhelmingly found most thought William was setting a good example by putting family first.
What people were less clear on was his “social impact” work and what that is all about.
The community projects may not necessarily grab as much attention as William and his advisors want, but what will be fascinating to watch is the potential long-term impact of this new kind of ethos.
As the Prince and Princess of Wales stood on the steps of Buckingham Palace at a garden party on Tuesday, pausing for the national anthem, you can’t help but wonder whether those traditional elements of royal life could face a shake-up when one day he leads the firm full time.
Understandably, no one likes to talk about transition, and Prince William certainly doesn’t shout about his thoughts on what will come.
South Western Railway (SWR) has been renationalised this weekend as part of the government’s transition towards Great British Railways.
The train operator officially came under public ownership at around 2am on Sunday – and the first journey, the 5.36am from Woking, was partly a rail replacement bus service due to engineering works.
Image: Pic: PA
So what difference will renationalisation make to passengers and will journeys be cheaper?
What is nationalisation?
Nationalisation means the government taking control of industries or companies, taking them from private to public ownership.
England’s railway lines are currently run by train operating companies as franchises under fixed-term contracts, but Labour have said they want to take control of the lines when those fixed terms end.
Image: Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander. Pic: PA
In its manifesto, the party vowed to return rail journeys to public ownership within five years by establishing Great British Railways (GBR) to run both the network tracks and trains.
Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander, who travelled on the first renationalised departure from London Waterloo, said, before boarding, it was “a new dawn for our railways” and “a watershed moment”.
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“But I know that most users of the railway don’t spend much time thinking about who runs the trains – they just want them to work,” she added. “That’s why operators will have to meet rigorous performance standards and earn the right to be called Great British Railways.”
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How reliable are UK trains?
How will ticket prices be affected?
Labour have argued cutting off payments flowing into the private sector could save the taxpayer £150m a year.
But the government has not explicitly promised the savings made from nationalisation will be used to subsidise fees.
It is unlikely rail fares will fall as a result of nationalisation, rail analyst William Barter told Sky News.
“The government could mandate fare cuts if it wanted to, but there’s no sign it wants to,” he said.
“At the moment, I’m sure they would want to keep the money rather than give it back to passengers. The current operator aims to maximise revenue, and there’s no reason the government would want them to do anything differently under government control.”
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UK has most expensive train tickets in Europe
What difference will it make for passengers?
Britain’s railways are frequently plagued by delays, cuts to services and timetable issues, but Mr Barter said nationalisation will make very little day-to-day difference to passengers.
There was “no reason to think” the move would improve issues around delays and cancellation of services, he said.
“It’s going to be the same people, the same management,” he explained.
“The facts of what the operator has to deal with in terms of revenue, infrastructure, reliability, all the rest of it – they haven’t changed.”
Image: Pic: iStock
Which services are next to be nationalised?
In the longer term, the move is likely to bring “a degree of certainty compared with relatively short-term franchises”, Mr Barter said, noting the government would only want to renationalise a franchise “because in one way or another something very bad is going on in that franchise, so in a way it can only get better”.
It also means the government will have greater accountability for fixing problems with punctuality and cancellations.
Mr Barter said: “If this is the government’s baby, then they’re going to do their best to make sure it doesn’t fail. So rather than having a franchise holder they can use as a political scapegoat, it’s theirs now.”
He added: “In the short term, I don’t think you’d expect to see any sort of change. Long term, you’ll see stability and integration bringing about gradual benefits. There’s not a silver bullet of that sort here.”
Britain’s railway services were privatised in the mid-1990s.
Image: South Western Railway came under public ownership at around 2am on Sunday. Pic: PA
Now, all services run by private companies will be renationalised as contracts reach the end of their minimum terms, with the process due to be completed by the end of 2027.
The next operator’s services to be brought under public control will be c2c – which runs between London and Essex – on 20 July, with Greater Anglia following in October, before seven more companies transfer over when their franchises end in the future.
Operators that were already under public ownership are LNER, Northern, Southeastern and TransPennine Express.
Alan Yentob, the former BBC presenter and executive, has died aged 78.
A statement from his family, shared by the BBC, said Yentob died on Saturday.
His wife Philippa Walker said: “For Jacob, Bella and I, every day with Alan held the promise of something unexpected. Our life was exciting, he was exciting.
“He was curious, funny, annoying, late, and creative in every cell of his body. But more than that, he was the kindest of men and a profoundly moral man. He leaves in his wake a trail of love a mile wide.”
Yentob joined the BBC as a trainee in 1968 and held a number of positions – including controller of BBC One and BBC Two, director of television, and head of music and art.
He was also the director of BBC drama, entertainment, and children’s TV.
Yentob launched CBBC and CBeebies, and his drama commissions included Pride And Prejudice and Middlemarch.
Image: Alan Yentob (left) with former BBC director general Tony Hall in 2012. Pic: Reuters.
The TV executive was made a Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) by the King in 2024 for services to the arts and media.
In a tribute, the BBC’s director-general Tim Davie said: “Alan Yentob was a towering figure in British broadcasting and the arts. A creative force and a cultural visionary, he shaped decades of programming at the BBC and beyond, with a passion for storytelling and public service that leave a lasting legacy.
“Above all, Alan was a true original. His passion wasn’t performative – it was personal. He believed in the power of culture to enrich, challenge and connect us.”
BBC Radio 4 presenter Amol Rajan described him on Instagram as “such a unique and kind man: an improbable impresario from unlikely origins who became a towering figure in the culture of post-war Britain.