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Here’s a quiz question: how much would you say the supply of non-Russian gas to Europe (including the UK) has gone up since the invasion of Ukraine?

It’s a pretty important question. After all, in the years before the invasion, Russian gas (coming in mostly through pipelines but, to a lesser extent, also on liquefied natural gas [LNG] tankers) accounted for more than a third of our gas.

If Europe was going to stop relying on Russian gas, it would need either to source that gas from somewhere else or to learn to live without it. And while there might, a few decades hence, be a way of surviving without gas while also nursing important heavy industries, right now the technology isn’t there.

For decades, Europe – especially Germany, but also, to a lesser extent Italy and other parts of Eastern Europe – built their economic models on building advanced machinery, with their plants fuelled by cheap Russian gas.

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All of which is why that question matters. And so too does the answer. The conventional wisdom is that Europe has shored up its supplies of gas from elsewhere. There’s more methane coming in from Azerbaijan, for one thing. And more too in the form of LNG from Qatar and (especially) the US.

But now let’s ponder the actual data. And it shows you something else: in 2024 as a whole, the amount of gas Europe had from non-Russian sources was up by a mere 0.5% compared with the 2017-21 average.

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This isn’t to say that there wasn’t more gas coming in, primarily from LNG tankers, most (but not all) of them from the US. But that extra LNG was only enough to compensate for a sharp fall in gas produced domestically, for instance by the UK and the Netherlands. The upshot was that to all extents and purposes, the non-Russian part of the European gas mix was basically flat.

USE THIS Chart 1 So... What changed?

That’s a serious problem, given the amount of gas coming in from Russia has fallen by 37% over the same period. Essentially, Europe’s total gas consumption has fallen by an unprecedented amount without being supplemented from elsewhere.

Now, to some extent, some of that lost energy has been supplemented by extra power from renewable sources. The UK, for instance, saw the biggest amount of its power ever coming from wind and other green sources last year. However, green electricity only goes so far. It cannot heat houses with gas boilers; it cannot provide the intense heat needed for many industrial processes. And look at the numbers in Europe and you can see the consequences.

USE THIS chart 2 Europe is deindustrialising fast

With the continent having effectively to ration gas, the industrial heart has borne the brunt. Look at chemicals production in the UK and it’s down by more than a third in recent years. Look at energy-intensive industrial output in Germany and it’s down by 20% since the invasion of Ukraine. The continent is deindustrialising, and the shortage of gas is at least part of the explanation.

And that shortage is about to become even more acute in the coming months. Because the flow of gas coming from Russia is going to fall yet further. There are, broadly speaking, four routes for Russian gas into Europe. The Yamal pipelines are old Soviet pipes running through Belarus; the Nord Stream pipes run (or rather ran) under the Baltic. There are pipes going through Ukraine towards Slovakia and Austria and then there’s the newest pipes, running through the Black Sea to Turkey.

Chart 3 European gas pipelines from Russia USE THIS

As of late last year, only two of these routes were still operational: Yamal had been shuttered following sanctions by both sides in 2022; Nord Stream was damaged by an attack later in 2022. And now, following a failure to renew the terms of a transit agreement between Ukraine and Russia, the Ukraine route has just shut too. The amounts of gas we’re talking about aren’t enormous: around 4% of total European supply, as of 2024. But even so, it’s a further blow and will mean more rationing in the coming months. European deindustrialisation will probably continue or accelerate.

According to Jack Sharples, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies: “In the big picture, the loss of 15 billion cubic metres in 2025 for Europe as a whole equates to 4% of supply in 2024. So, enough to push the market a little tighter in the context of a global LNG market that remains tight, but nothing like the impact of losing Russian pipeline gas supply in 2022.”

Still, this isn’t the only challenge facing the market right now. This time last year, the continent had a near-unprecedented amount of gas stored away. But the amount of gas in storage – a key buffer – has dropped rapidly in recent months, partly because it’s been a little colder than in the previous year, partly because gas has had to step in to provide power when the wind dropped and renewables output disappointed.

Chart 4 USE THIS storage is low too

The result is the continent starts the year with gas storage at a much lower level than policymakers would like – only 71% full. Admittedly this is higher than the nerve-wrackingly low level of early 2022 (54%). And it’s implausible that Europe will actually exhaust its supplies. But it makes it more likely that the continent will have to pay high prices in the summer to replenish its supplies.

Put it all together and you can understand why wholesale gas prices are climbing higher. The UK may not receive any gas directly from Russia, but it’s plugged into this market, so any shortages on the other side of the channel directly affect the prices we pay here too. And those prices are now up to the highest level since the spring of 2023. This is, it’s worth saying, way lower than the highs of 2022. But it’s enough to suggest bills might be heading up soon.

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Liam Payne’s cause of death confirmed during UK inquest opening

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Liam Payne's cause of death confirmed during UK inquest opening

One Direction star Liam Payne died of multiple traumatic injuries, a UK inquest into his death has heard.

The 31-year-old singer, who died in October after falling from the third-floor balcony of a hotel in Buenos Aires, Argentina, was confirmed to have died of “polytrauma”, the inquest opening heard.

The hearing, which Buckinghamshire Coroner’s Court said was held on 17 December, was told it may take “some time” to establish how Payne died.

The inquest into Payne’s death in the UK has been adjourned until a pre-inquest review on 6 November, the coroner’s court said.

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Mourners gather for Payne’s funeral

Five people have been charged over Payne’s death at the Casa Sur Hotel on 16 October.

The hotel’s manager, a receptionist and a “representative” of Payne have been charged with negligent homicide (similar to manslaughter in UK law), Argentina’s National Criminal and Correctional Prosecutor’s Office previously said in a statement.

They are hotel manager Gilda Martin, receptionist Esteban Grassi and Payne’s “representative” Roger Nores.

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Two others, hotel employee Ezequiel Pereyra and waiter Braian Paiz, have been charged with supplying cocaine.

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Family and friends attended Payne’s funeral on 20 November, including his girlfriend Kate Cassidy and former partner Cheryl, with whom he had a son, Bear.

His One Direction bandmates, Harry Styles, Louis Tomlinson, Niall Horan and Zayn Malik also attended the private ceremony.

Senior Coroner Crispin Butler said during the inquest hearing: “Whilst there are ongoing investigations in Argentina into the circumstances of Liam’s death, over which I have no legal jurisdiction, it is anticipated that procuring the relevant information to address particularly how Liam came by his death may take some time through the formal channel of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.”

It comes after the star’s final hours were recently detailed by a judge and the Argentinian Public Prosecutor’s Office, who said in a statement Payne had been “demanding” drugs and alcohol during his stay at the hotel.

On 16 October, Payne was in the hotel lobby and “unable to stand” due to the “consumption of various substances”, the court document said.

The receptionist and two others “dragged” the singer to his room.

The document also reiterated the hypothesis that Payne had “tried to leave the room through the balcony and thus fell”.

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Plan to sanction people smuggling gangs is a bold and novel departure – but can the government make it bite?

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Plan to sanction people smuggling gangs is a bold and novel departure - but can the government make it bite?

So can you stop people smugglers by lumbering them with sanctions? That is the government’s latest idea, and it is bold and innovative.

It will certainly get attention, even if that doesn’t mean it will work. But it is another effort by this government to differentiate itself from the leaders who came before.

In a nutshell, the idea is to cut the financing to what the Foreign Office refers to as “organised immigration networks” and is intended to deter “smugglers from profiting off the trafficking of innocent people”.

So far, so convincing. The rhetoric is good. The reality may be more difficult.

For one thing, and we await actual details of what’s going to be done, this raises an enormous question of how this can be accomplished.

A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover.
Pic: PA
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A view of small boats and outboard motors used by people thought to be migrants to cross the Channel at a warehouse facility in Dover. Pic: PA

Some of the people smugglers bringing people across the Channel are based in Britain, but most aren’t. And as a general rule, they’re quite hard to track down.

I know that, because I’ve met some of them.

In Kurdistan, I drank tea with a cheerful man, Karwan, who had been responsible for smuggling a thousand people into Europe.

He had absolutely no fear of being caught, and no sense that he was even breaking the law.

The smuggling gang did not want to reveal their faces. From Parsons October 2023 shorthand
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The smuggling gang, who we met in October 2023, did not want to reveal their faces


We meet that afternoon. The smuggler, *Karwan, turns up with three other men, all members of his group - he doesn't like the word "gang" - and accepts the offer of a cup of hot tea. From Parsons VT for shorthand October 2023

Instead, Karwan considered that he was doing a duty to Kurds, allowing them to escape from the hardship of their nation to a more prosperous life in other countries, including Britain. Or, at least, that’s what he said.

How exactly Britain could impose sanctions on him is hard to imagine.

Nor is it hard to think of fear now creeping into the minds of the various smugglers I’ve met during years of reporting from the beaches of northern France.

These people are well aware that they’re breaking the law. You can hardly spend your time dodging French police and claim to be innocent.

Guns are becoming more commonplace in migrant camps. The spectre of sanctions won’t stop them.

Man suspected of supplying small boats for Channel migrant crossings arrested
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Life jackets allegedly belonging to a gang of people smugglers which were seized by police in November

So the question is whether the British government can track down the people at the very top of these organisations and find a way of levying financial sanctions that bite.

Presumably, if these people were in Britain, they’d be arrested, with the prospect of their assets being frozen.

So imposing sanctions will probably involve working alongside European countries, coordinating action and sharing information. A process that has become more complicated since Brexit.

Sanctions have previously worked well when targeted towards high-profile people and organisations with a clear track record.

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The oligarchs who have propped up Vladimir Putin’s regime, for instance, or companies trying to procure armaments for hostile states. All have been targeted by a coalition of nations.

But this idea is novel – unilateral for a start, even if, one assumes, the French, Germans, Belgians and others have been warned in advance.

It’s also not quite clear how it will work – organised crime is famously flexible and if you successfully sanction one person, then someone else is likely to take over.

As for levying sanctions on the smuggling leaders in Iraq, Syria, Libya, Egypt, Albania and beyond – well, good luck.

An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
An inflatable dinghy carrying migrants makes its way towards England in the English Channel. Pic: Reuters

What it does is to draw that distinction between the recent past, when the Rwanda plan was the main ambition, and Keir Starmer’s reliance on focusing on criminality and working together with partners.

And one other note. For years, the government has talked about people crossing the Channel as illegal migrants, even though there is a dispute between UK and international law about whether these people are actually breaking the law.

Now the Foreign Office is using the term “irregular migration”. Is this a change of tone, or just a stylistic whim? Just as with the sanctions, we will wait and see.

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Senior Tory MP Sir David Davis calls for Lucy Letby retrial

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Senior Tory MP Sir David Davis calls for Lucy Letby retrial

A senior Conservative has called for a retrial for Lucy Letby, the nurse jailed for murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven others.

Former minister Sir David Davis has said he believes a retrial will “clear” her, as her conviction was “built on a poor understanding of probabilities” and lacked “hard evidence”.

He told MPs on Wednesday “there is case in justice” for a retrial, but admitted there was a problem.

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David Davis

Much of the expert analysis of the case notes he was referring to, was available at the time but not presented to the jury, he said.

That meant the Court of Appeal can dismiss it, “basically saying the defence should have presented it at the initial trial”.

In effect, he said, the court can say: “‘If your defence team weren’t good enough to present this evidence, hard luck you stay banged up for life’.”

Such an outcome “may be judicially convenient, but it’s not justice,” he said.

He said earlier: “There was no hard evidence against Letby, nobody saw her do anything untoward. The doctor’s gut feeling was based on a coincidence – she was on shift for a number of deaths, and this is important, although far from all of them, far from all of them.

“It was built on a poor understanding of probabilities, which could translate later into an influential but spectacularly flawed piece of evidence.”

Sir David said Letby’s case “horrified the nation” and that it “seemed clear a nurse had turned into a serial killer”.

“Now I initially accepted the tabloid characterisation of Letby as an evil monster, but then I was approached by many experts, leading statisticians, neonatal specialists, forensic scientists, legal experts and those who had served at Chester Hospital who were afraid to come forward,” he added.

These experts convinced Sir David that “false analyses and diagnoses” had been used to “persuade a lay jury” to find Letby guilty.

Responding to Sir David, Justice Minister Alex Davies-Jones said it is “an important principle of the rule of law that the Government does not interfere with judicial decisions”.

She added: “It is not appropriate for me or the government to comment on judicial processes nor the reliability of convictions or evidence.”

Ms Davies-Jones later told the Commons that Letby could apply to the Criminal Cases Review Commission if she believed she had been wrongly convicted.

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Letby, from Hereford, is serving 15 whole-life orders after she was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering seven infants and attempting to murder seven others, with two attempts on one of her victims, between June 2015 and June 2016.

Letby, who was in her mid-20s and working at the Countess of Chester Hospital at the time of the murders, is now the UK’s most prolific child killer of modern times.

The 33-year-old killed her victims by injecting the infants with insulin or air or force-feeding them with milk.

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