What’s going on in the markets and should we be worried?
The chancellor is under pressure because financial market moves have pushed up the cost of government borrowing, putting Rachel Reeves’ economic plans in peril.
So what’s going on, and should we be worried?
What is a bond?
UK Treasury bonds, known as gilts because they used to literally have gold edges, are the mechanism by which the state borrows money from investors.
They pay a fixed annual return, known as a coupon, to the lender over a fixed period – five, 10 and 30 years are common durations – and are traded on international markets, which means their value changes even as the return remains fixed.
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That means their true interest rate is measured by the ‘yield’, which is calculated by dividing the annual return by the current price. So when bond prices fall, the yield – the effective interest rate – goes up.
And for the last three months, markets have been selling off UK bonds, pushing borrowing costs higher. This week the yield on 30-year gilts reached its highest level since 1998 at 5.37%, and 10-year gilts briefly hit a level last seen after the financial crisis, sparking jitters in markets and in Westminster.
Why are investors selling UK bonds?
Bond markets are influenced by many factors but the primary domestic pressure is the prospect of persistent inflation, with interest rates staying high for longer as a consequence.
Higher inflation reduces the purchasing power of the coupon, and higher interest rates make the bond less competitive because investors can now buy bonds paying a higher rate. Both of which apply in the UK.
Inflation remains higher than the Bank of England‘s 2% target and many large companies are warning of further price rises as tax and wage rises bite in the spring.
As a result, the Bank is now expected to cut rates only twice this year, as opposed to the four reductions priced in by markets as recently as November.
Nor is there much optimism that the economic growth promised by the chancellor will save the day in the short term, with business groups warning investment will be tempered by taxes.
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Sky News’ Ed Conway on the impact of increased long-term borrowing costs as they hit their highest level in the UK since 1998
Is the UK alone?
No. Bond markets are international and in recent months the primary influence has been rising borrowing costs in the US, triggered by Donald Trump’s re-election and the assumption that tariffs and other policies will be inflationary.
The UK is not immune from those forces, and other European nations including Germany and France, facing their own political gyrations, have seen costs rise too. (The US influence could yet increase if strong labour market figures on Friday reinforce the sense that rates will remain high).
But there are specific domestic factors, particularly the prospect of stagflation. The UK is also more reliant on overseas investors than other G7 nations, which means the markets really matter.
Why does it matter to Reeves?
The cost of borrowing affects not just the issuance of new debt but the price of maintaining existing loans, and it matters because these higher costs could erode the “headroom” Ms Reeves left herself in her budget.
Headroom is a measure of how much slack she has against her self-imposed fiscal rule, itself intended to reassure markets that the UK is a stable location for investment, to fund day-to-day spending entirely from tax revenue by 2029-30.
At the budget, she had just £9.9bn of headroom and some analysts estimate market pressure has eroded all but £1bn of that.
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At the end of March the Office for Budget Responsibility will provide an update on the fiscal position and market conditions could change before then, but if they don’t then Ms Reeves may have to rewrite her plans.
The Treasury this week described the fiscal rules as “non-negotiable”, which leaves a choice between raising taxes or, more likely, cutting costs to make the numbers add up.
Why does it matter to the rest of us?
Persistently higher rates could push up consumer debt costs, increasing the burden of mortgages and other loans. Beyond that, the state of the economy matters to all of us.
The underlying challenges – persistent inflation, stagnant growth, worse productivity, ailing public services – are fundamental, and Labour has promised to address them.
Investment in infrastructure and new industries, spurred by planning and financial market reform, are all promised as medium-term solutions to the structural challenges. But politics, like financial markets, is a short-term business, and Ms Reeves could do with some relief, starting with helpful inflation and growth figures due next week.
A major component within household energy bills is set to rise sharply from next year to help pay for efforts to maintain energy security during the transition to green power.
The industry regulator Ofgem’s draft determination on how much it will allow network operators to charge energy suppliers from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031 would push up network costs within household bills by £24 a year.
These charges currently account for 22% of the total bill.
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The findings, which will be subject to consultation before a final determination by the end of the year, reflect demands on network operators to make power and gas networks fit for the future amid expansion in renewable and nuclear energy to meet net zero ambitions.
Ofgem says the plans it has given provisional approval for amount to a £24bn investment programme over the five-year term – a four-fold increase on current levels.
A total of 80 major projects includes upgrades to more than 2,700 miles of overhead power lines.
If rubber stamped as planned, the resulting network cost increases threaten further upwards pressure on bills from next April – a month that has now become synonymous with rising essential bills.
The watchdog revealed its plans as the 22 million British households on the energy price cap benefit from the first decline for a year.
It is coming down from an annual average £1,849 between April and June to £1,720 from July to September.
That’s on the back of easing wholesale costs seen during the spring – before the temporary surge in wholesale gas prices caused by the recent instability in the Middle East.
A new forecast released by industry specialist Cornwall Insight suggested households were on track to see a further, but slight, decline when the cap is adjusted again in October.
At the current level it is 28% lower than at the height of the energy-led cost of living crisis – but 10% higher than the same period last year.
The price cap does not limit total bills because householders still pay for the amount of energy they consume.
Ofgem is continuing to recommend consumers shop around for fixed rate deals in the market as they can offer savings compared with the price cap and shield homes from any price shocks seen within their fixed terms.
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Jonathan Brearley, the regulator’s chief executive, said: ”Britain’s reliance on imported gas has left us at the mercy of volatile international gas prices which during the energy crisis would have caused bills to rise as high as £4,000 for an average household without government support.
“Even today the price cap can move up or down by hundreds of pounds with little we can do about it.
“This record investment will deliver a homegrown energy system that is better for Britain and better for customers. It will ensure the system has greater resilience against shocks from volatile gas prices we don’t control.
“These 80 projects are a long-term insurance policy against threats to Britain’s energy security and the instability of prices. By bringing online dozens of homegrown, renewable generation sites and modernising our energy system to the one we will need in the future we can boost growth and give ourselves more control over prices too.
“Doing nothing is not an option and will cost consumers more – this is critical national infrastructure. The sooner we build the network we need, and invest to strengthen our resilience, the lower the cost for bill payers will be in the future.”
Business
Concessions to welfare reforms to be revealed after Labour backbench rebellion forces government retreat
Changes to welfare reforms, forced on the government by rebel Labour MPs, are being revealed today ahead of a crucial vote.
The original bill restricted eligibility for the personal independence payment (PIP) and cut the health-related element of universal credit (UC).
The government, which insisted welfare costs were becoming unsustainable, was forced into a U-turn after 126 Labour backbenchers signed an amendment that would have halted the bill at its first Commons hurdle.
Explainer: What are the welfare concessions?
While the amendment is expected to be withdrawn, after changes that appeased some Labour MPs, others are still unhappy and considering backing a similar amendment to be tabled today.
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Starmer defends welfare U-turn
Here are the main changes to the UC and PIP bill:
• current PIP claimants will keep their benefits; stricter eligibility requirements will only apply to new claims from November 2026
• a review of the PIP assessment, which will have input from disabled people
• existing recipients of the health-related element of UC will have their incomes protected in real terms
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall said in a statement that the legislation now aims to deliver a “fairer, more compassionate system” ahead of the second reading and vote on Tuesday.
“We must build a welfare system that provides security for those who cannot work and the right support for those who can. Too often, disabled people feel trapped, worried that if they try to work, they could lose the support they depend on.
“That is why we are taking action to remove those barriers, support disabled people to live with dignity and independence, and open routes into employment for those who want to pursue it.
“This is about delivering a fairer, more compassionate system as part of our Plan for Change which supports people to thrive, whatever their circumstances.”
Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall insists welfare reforms will create ‘a fairer, more compassionate system’. Pic: PA
On Saturday, Sir Keir Starmer said fixing the UK’s welfare system was a “moral imperative”. The government claimed cuts to sickness and disability benefits would shave £5bn off the welfare bill and get more people into work.
The Resolution Foundation believes the concessions could cost as much as £3bn, while the Institute for Fiscal Studies warned that the changes make tax rises more likely.
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Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Sky News that welfare bill changes have put Labour in a much better position ahead of tomorrow’s vote.
On Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, Mr Streeting said: “There were things that we didn’t get right, we’ve put right, and there’ll be a debate about future amendments and things, I’m sure, as it goes through in the usual way.”
Talking to Sky News about the welfare reforms, Health Secretary Wes Streeting said there were things Labour ‘didn’t get right’
On the same programme, shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately repeatedly refused to say whether the Conservatives would back the bill, but would review the proposals after the minister’s statement later.
“We have said that if there are more savings that actually bring the welfare bill down, if they’ll get more people into work, and if they commit to using the savings to avoid tax cuts in the autumn, which looks highly unlikely at the moment, then they have our support.”
The Liberal Democrats plan to vote against the bill and have called for the government to speed up access-to-work decisions to help people enter the workforce.
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