NHL Power Rankings: Knights take command, plus each team’s points pace vs. expectation
There is no official midseason mark of the NHL season. But with a number of teams at (or beyond) their individual 41-game marks, it’s time for another look at how every club has performed thus far in the context of preseason expectations.
As a proxy for “expectations,” we have the over-under point total for each team, courtesy of ESPN BET sportsbook.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors sends in a 1-32 poll based on the games through Wednesday, which generates our master list.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the previous edition, published Jan. 3. Points percentages and paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 71.95%
Preseason O/U: 97.5
Current points pace: 118.0
Death, taxes and the Vegas Golden Knights being near the top of the Western Conference. Vegas remains well ahead of its preseason point total pace, eyeing a deeper playoff run this spring than their first-round exit in 2024.
Next eight days: vs. NYR (Jan. 11), vs. MIN (Jan. 12), @ NSH (Jan. 14)
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 70.73%
Preseason O/U: 89.5
Current points pace: 116.0
The 2024-25 season was supposed to be all about Alex Ovechkin‘s chase of Wayne Gretzky’s goal-scoring record. Someone forgot to tell the Capitals, who sit atop the Eastern Conference standings, well ahead of their expected point total pace.
Next eight days: vs. MTL (Jan. 10), @ NSH (Jan. 11), vs. ANA (Jan. 14), @ OTT (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 69.05%
Preseason O/U: 95.5
Current points pace: 113.2
One month in, the Jets were on pace for 153.2 points. They’ve since cooled, but are on top of the Central Division and still way ahead of preseason expectations.
Next eight days: vs. LA (Jan. 10, vs. COL (Jan. 11), vs. VAN (Jan. 14), vs. SEA (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 65.12%
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Current points pace: 106.8
Although the Maple Leafs did not make any bold changes to the on-ice personnel this summer, they did bring in a new voice behind the bench in Craig Berube. Despite injuries to key players (including Auston Matthews), the Leafs sit atop the Atlantic Division at midseason.
Next eight days: vs. VAN (Jan. 11), vs. DAL (Jan. 14), vs. NJ (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 66.67%
Preseason O/U: 93.5
Current points pace: 109.3
One of the NHL’s biggest early-season surprises, the Wild have proven they belong on the list of legit contenders, with or without Hart Trophy candidate Kirill Kaprizov on the ice.
Next eight days: @ SJ (Jan. 11), @ VGK (Jan. 12), vs. EDM (Jan. 15)
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 67.11%
Preseason O/U: 96.5
Current points pace: 110.1
Yet another first-round playoff loss to the Oilers seemed to carry bad vibes into the Kings’ 2024-25 season. But they’ve been a wagon since American Thanksgiving, going 11-2-2 since feasting on turkey and all the fixings. Maybe it’s the Oilers who should be looking to avoid them?
Next eight days: @ WPG (Jan. 10), @ CGY (Jan. 11), @ EDM (Jan. 13), @ VAN (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 64.63%
Preseason O/U: 108.5
Current points pace: 106.0
The Oilers came within one victory of the Stanley Cup this past season. Although they sit behind some other Western powers in the standings, on any given night Connor McDavid & Co. look as strong as anyone in the league.
Next eight days: @ CHI (Jan. 11), vs. LA (Jan. 13), @ MIN (Jan. 15), @ COL (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 66.25%
Preseason O/U: 103.5
Current points pace: 108.7
Following multiple trips to the Western Conference finals in recent seasons, the Stars’ ultimate goal in this one is to make it to the Cup Final (and win, obviously). With a points pace well into triple digits, they’re on track to give themselves a shot.
Next eight days: @ MTL (Jan. 11), @ OTT (Jan. 12), @ TOR (Jan. 14), vs. MTL (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 61.36%
Preseason O/U: 101.5
Current points pace: 100.6
A lackluster 2023-24 campaign has given way to a return to contention for Jack Hughes & Co. Was it all the result of upgrades in goal in the form of Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen?
Next eight days: vs. TB (Jan. 11), vs. FLA (Jan. 14), @ TOR (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 61.91%
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Current points pace: 101.5
Stanley Cup hangover? What Stanley Cup hangover? The Cats have bullied their way to a spot near the top of the Atlantic Division, and will once again be a tough out for anyone in the postseason.
Next eight days: vs. BOS (Jan. 11), @ PHI (Jan. 13), @ NJ (Jan. 14), vs. DET (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 61.91%
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Current points pace: 101.5
The hockey world knows just what to expect out of the Rod Brind’Amour Hurricanes — and apparently the sportsbooks now do too!
Next eight days: vs. VAN (Jan. 10), vs. ANA (Jan. 12), @ BUF (Jan. 15)
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 61.63%
Preseason O/U: 102.5
Current points pace: 101.1
An injury-based slow start for the Avs has given way to a resumption of their role among the league’s elite. Have they found a diamond in the rough in recently acquired netminder Mackenzie Blackwood?
Next eight days: @ WPG (Jan. 11), vs. NYR (Jan. 14), vs. EDM (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 58.97%
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Current points pace: 96.7
One of these years, the Lightning may finally miss the playoffs. But it’s not looking like it’ll be this one, as Tampa Bay continues to rack up points (and a gaudy goal differential).
Next eight days: @ NJ (Jan. 11), @ PIT (Jan. 12), @ BOS (Jan. 14), vs. ANA (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 57.50%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 94.3
Reports of internecine strife have characterized the Canucks in 2024-25, despite some continuation of their strong performance as division champs in 2023-24. Is a blockbuster trade in the works — and would that really help them this spring?
Next eight days: @ CAR (Jan. 10), @ TOR (Jan. 11), @ WPG (Jan. 14), vs. LA (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 56.25%
Preseason O/U: 81.5
Current points pace: 92.3
The Flames traded away many of their top players in the past 12 months — only to find themselves in the thick of the Western playoff hunt. A big reason is standout rookie goaltender Dustin Wolf, who remains in the mix for the Calder Trophy as rookie of the year.
Next eight days: vs. LA (Jan. 11), @ CHI (Jan. 13), @ STL (Jan. 14), @ STL (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 51.25%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 84.1
Of the three “Atlantic rising” teams — which also includes the Red Wings and Sabres — the Sens appear closest to a playoff return, though an extended absence for goaltender Linus Ullmark will influence that journey.
Next eight days: @ PIT (Jan. 11), vs. DAL (Jan. 12), @ NYI (Jan. 14), vs. WSH (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 51.25%
Preseason O/U: 76.5
Current points pace: 84.1
From an exciting group of young players — led by Calder candidate Lane Hutson — to the resurgent Patrik Laine, the Canadiens are one of the most fun teams to watch, whether they remain in the playoff hunt or not.
Next eight days: @ WSH (Jan. 10), vs. DAL (Jan. 11), @ UTA (Jan. 14), @ DAL (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 52.38%
Preseason O/U: 69.5
Current points pace: 85.9
The Blue Jackets were not expected to make much of a mark in the Eastern playoff race this season, but at the midseason point they are right in the battle for a wild-card spot.
Next eight days: @ STL (Jan. 11), vs. PHI (Jan. 14), vs. SJ (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 51.14%
Preseason O/U: 99.5
Current points pace: 83.9
The chaos began in the preseason for the Bruins, as Jeremy Swayman‘s contract situation wasn’t resolved until quite late in the process. Then, a slow start resulted in Jim Montgomery being fired. And yet, Boston remains in the playoff mix, albeit behind their expected pace.
Next eight days: @ FLA (Jan. 11), vs. TB (Jan. 14)
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 51.16%
Preseason O/U: 86.5
Current points pace: 83.9
After narrowly missing the playoffs last season, the sportsbooks expected the Blues to be around that same neighborhood, and at midseason … that’s where they remain.
Next eight days: vs. CBJ (Jan. 11), vs. CGY (Jan. 14), vs. CGY (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 51.25%
Preseason O/U: 87.5
Current points pace: 84.1
An early-season surge had fans thinking the Hockey Club’s inaugural season would conclude with a playoff run. Uneven results in the time since have tempered that idea, but another winning streak could put them back in a wild-card spot.
Next eight days: vs. SJ (Jan. 10), vs. NYI (Jan. 11), vs. MTL (Jan. 14), vs. NYR (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 50.00%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 82.0
One of these years, the boisterous Red Wings faithful will have a playoff team to support. If it’s going to be this season, they’ll have to keep stringing together W’s beyond the current streak of five games.
Next eight days: vs. CHI (Jan. 10), vs. SEA (Jan. 12), vs. SJ (Jan. 14), @ FLA (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 51.16%
Preseason O/U: 90.5
Current points pace: 83.9
Is this the proverbial last dance for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang? The Penguins remain in the mix for a wild card, but must find more consistency in the second half.
Next eight days: vs. OTT (Jan. 11), vs. TB (Jan. 12), vs. SEA (Jan. 14)
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 46.43%
Preseason O/U: 85.5
Current points pace: 76.1
Like any John Tortorella-coached team, the Flyers are a tough out. But they’ve had trouble stringing together many wins, and need to jump ahead of a handful of teams to get into a playoff spot.
Next eight days: vs. ANA (Jan. 11), vs. FLA (Jan. 13), @ CBJ (Jan. 14), @ NYI (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 48.78%
Preseason O/U: 100.5
Current points pace: 80.0
Were it not for the Predators, the Rangers would be the biggest flop of the season. Though given their Presidents’ Trophy in 2023-24, many would put them first on that ignominious list.
Next eight days: @ VGK (Jan. 11), @ COL (Jan. 14), @ UTA (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 47.56%
Preseason O/U: 91.5
Current points pace: 78.0
A brief appearance in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs led to a summer where the team made few modifications to the roster. That hasn’t been the right formula thus far.
Next eight days: @ UTA (Jan. 11), vs. OTT (Jan. 14), vs. PHI (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 47.56%
Preseason O/U: 72.5
Current points pace: 78.0
It’s probably too early to say that the rebuild is over — with multiple players’ names mentioned in trade rumors — but the arrow is pointing up for the Ducks.
Next eight days: @ PHI (Jan. 11), @ CAR (Jan. 12), @ WSH (Jan. 14), @ TB (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 44.05%
Preseason O/U: 87.5
Current points pace: 72.2
Underperformance in 2023-24 cost Dave Hakstol his job, so the Kraken tapped Dan Bylsma — architect of the team’s successful AHL affiliate — to take over. It hasn’t been a total turnaround yet, as the club stares down another season outside the playoff mix.
Next eight days: @ BUF (Jan. 11), @ DET (Jan. 12), @ PIT (Jan. 14), @ WPG (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 44.05%
Preseason O/U: 88.5
Current points pace: 72.2
Can the Sabres salvage their season and avoid a 14th straight spring outside the playoffs? Time is running short to string together the wins necessary to do so.
Next eight days: vs. SEA (Jan. 11), vs. CAR (Jan. 15)
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 40.24%
Preseason O/U: 98.5
Current points pace: 66.0
There’s no sugar-coating it: the Predators are — by a wide margin — the biggest disappointment in the NHL this season, at least according to their preseason expectations. Could bigger changes be on the way by the trade deadline?
Next eight days: vs. WSH (Jan. 11), vs. VGK (Jan. 14), vs. CHI (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 36.59%
Preseason O/U: 73.5
Current points pace: 60.0
No one was realistically expecting a playoff run for Connor Bedard in his second season, but the Blackhawks’ results so far earned coach Luke Richardson his walking papers, and the team plenty of questions to answer as they remain near the basement of the standings.
Next eight days: @ DET (Jan. 10), vs. EDM (Jan. 11), vs. CGY (Jan. 13), @ NSH (Jan. 16)
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 37.21%
Preseason O/U: 63.5
Current points pace: 61.0
The Sharks have been the epitome of a “fun bad” team this season, running up a minus-41 goal differential but seeing Macklin Celebrini make highlight-reel plays on a near-nightly basis.
Next eight days: @ UTA (Jan. 10), vs. MIN (Jan. 11), @ DET (Jan. 14), @ CBJ (Jan. 16)
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — A federal judge has denied NASCAR’s motions to dismiss an antitrust lawsuit filed against the stock car series.
U.S. District Judge Kenneth Bell of the Western District of North Carolina also denied NASCAR’s request that two teams — 23XI Racing and Front Row Motorsports — be ordered to post a bond to cover fees they would not be legally owed if they lose the case.
23XI Racing, a team co-owned by NBA Hall of Famer Michael Jordan, and Front Row Motorsports, which is owned by entrepreneur Bob Jenkins, are suing NASCAR to compete with charter recognition throughout the 2025 season.
NASCAR and the teams that compete in the top Cup Series operate with a franchise system that was implemented in 2016 in which 36 cars have “charters” that guarantee them a spot in the field at every race and financial incentives. There are four “open” spots earmarked for the field each week.
The teams banded together in negotiations on an improved charter system in an often-contentious battle with NASCAR for nearly two years. In September, NASCAR finally had enough and presented the teams with a take-it-or-leave-it offer that had to be signed the same day – just 48 hours before the start of the playoffs.
23XI and Front Row were the only two teams out of 15 who refused to sign the new charter agreement. They then teamed together to sue NASCAR and chairman Jim France, arguing as the only stock car entity in the United States, NASCAR has a monopoly and the teams are not getting their fair share of the pie.
Both organizations maintained they would still compete as open cars, but convinced Bell last month to give them chartered status by arguing they would suffer irreparable harm as open cars. Among the claims was that 23XI driver Tyler Reddick, last year’s regular-season champion, would contractually become an immediate free agent if the team did not have him in a guaranteed chartered car.
NASCAR argued Wednesday that it needs that money earmarked because it would be redistributed to the chartered teams if 23XI and Front Row lose.
Jeffrey Kessler, considered the top antitrust lawyer in the country, argued that NASCAR has made no such promise to redistribute the funds to other teams. Kessler said NASCAR told teams it was up to NASCAR’s discretion how it would use the money and didn’t rule out spending some on its own legal fees.
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Jorge Castillo, ESPN Staff Writer
For years, teammates have asked Devin Williams to teach them his changeup, a pitch so unusual and dominant it has its own nickname. Williams always helps. They just never get “The Airbender” right.
“I haven’t seen anyone replicate it,” Williams said.
Powered by The Airbender, Williams has established himself as one of the premier relievers in baseball since breaking into the majors in 2019. He has been so good that the Milwaukee Brewers, keeping with their frugal roster-building tactics, traded Williams to the New York Yankees last month for left-hander Nestor Cortes and prospect Caleb Durbin before he inevitably would become too expensive in free agency next winter.
So, for one season, at least, Williams will follow in the footsteps of another Yankees closer who perplexed hitters with one pitch: Mariano Rivera.
“Those are big shoes to fill,” Williams said of Rivera, whose signature cutter helped him become the first player voted unanimously to the Hall of Fame. “I feel he kind of ruined it for everybody else. I mean, after him, it’s hard to live up to those expectations. But at the end of the day, I can only be me.”
Being himself has been more than good enough for the 30-year-old Williams. The right-hander won the 2020 National League Rookie of the Year Award with a 0.33 ERA in 22 games as the Brewers’ primary setup man during the COVID-shortened campaign. He was an All-Star in 2022 and 2023, his first full season as a closer.
Last season, after missing the first four months with stress fractures in his back, he posted a 1.25 ERA with 14 saves in 15 opportunities across 22 appearances. His 40.8% strikeout rate since 2020 ranks second in the majors among relievers. His 1.70 ERA is also second. His .144 batting average against ranks first.
“Obviously, he’s one of the best in the league, if not the best,” Yankees pitching coach Matt Blake said.
For Williams, it all starts with The Airbender. Williams grips it like a changeup and its 84-mph average velocity plays off his fastball like a changeup. But it’s a changeup with an exceptionally high spin rate that breaks to his arm side — opposite from the typical changeup — making it resemble a screwball or a left-hander’s sweeping slider. It is without precedent.
“It’s not anything to do with the grip,” Williams said. “The grip is nothing special. That’s why I think it’s funny when people are like, ‘Oh, don’t give it away.’ This is the most basic changeup grip they teach you when you’re 8 years old.”
Williams said his changeup is so different for two reasons: His elite extension, which ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024, and a singular ability to pronate his wrist.
“It’s the way my wrist works, the way I’m able to manipulate the ball is something unique, uniquely me,” Williams said. “It allows me to throw my changeup the way I throw it. I’m a really good pronator, not supinator. That’s why my slider sucked. You need to get on the other side of the ball. I’m not good at that. I’m good at turning it over.”
Williams did, however, modify his changeup grip to unearth the weapon. Entering 2019, Williams was a struggling minor league starter with a solid changeup, two years removed from Tommy John surgery. He was one year from reaching free agency, from perhaps seeing his career come to an end and going to college to play soccer.
That spring, seeking more movement, he altered his changeup grip from a two-seam to a four-seam, circle change grip. He first threw it during a live batting practice session to Trent Grisham, then a Brewers prospect. Grisham, now with the Yankees, told Williams the spin difference was noticeable. Williams stuck with it.
A starter through spring training, Williams was sent to Double-A as a reliever to begin the season. The demotion sparked desperation, and Williams decided to throw harder than ever, reaching back to lift his fastball into the high 90s. He was in the majors by August. But it wasn’t until the COVID shutdown in 2020 — when he realized spinning the ball more and dropping the velocity from high-80s to mid-80s created more movement — that his changeup reached another level.
“I took that into the season and at summer camp I’m facing my own teammates,” Williams said. “And Jedd Gyorko, I threw him one, and he swung and missed and he was just like, What is that? I’ve never seen [anything] like that. That gave me confidence and we just ran with it. And I literally started throwing it all the time.”
Coincidentally, Williams said the closest changeup he’s seen to his belongs to Luke Weaver, whose emergence as a shutdown reliever in 2024 was crucial in the Yankees reaching the World Series. Williams happened to be in New York when the Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers played in the Fall Classic. He was on his annual autumn vacation after the Brewers were eliminated from the postseason. Past trips have taken him all over Europe: London, Paris, Dublin, Amsterdam, Munich, Dortmund, with a soccer game invariably on his itinerary.
This time, he was in New York. He explored the city for 10 days. Instead of soccer, he watched the World Series from a bar. He shopped. He ate good food. He absorbed the city’s energy.
“I’m a city guy,” Williams said. “I love to explore cities. I like to immerse myself in the culture. I want to be like a normal, everyday person. You guys like bacon, egg and cheese? All right, I’m getting a bacon, egg and cheese.”
Less than two months later, as part of a series of moves executed in their pivot from Juan Soto‘s decision to sign with the crosstown Mets, the Yankees added Williams. On Thursday, Williams settled for $8.6 million to avoid arbitration.
He’ll partner with Weaver to create one of the best bullpen back ends in baseball — in hopes of helping the Yankees win their first championship since Rivera was dominating hitters with his cutter.
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