India is staring at an ‘oil shock’ as U.S. sanctions on Russian crude loom
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin (R) speaks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi (L) during a visit to the shipyard Zvezda, as Rosneft Russian oil giant chief Igor Sechin (C) accompanies them, outside the far-eastern Russian port of Vladivostok on September 4, 2019, ahead of the start of the Eastern Economic Forum hosted by Russia.
Alexander Nemenov | Afp | Getty Images
India’s days of buying cheap Russian oil could be over.
Sweeping sanctions by the U.S. against Russia’s energy companies and operators of vessels that transport oil will complicate Indian efforts to keep importing cheap Russian crude and could push up inflation in Asia’s third-largest economy, analysts said.
The country could be looking at a potential oil shock, said Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group.
“India will be more affected than China by sanctions, since India imports much greater amount of its oil from Russia than China,” he told CNBC.
Last Friday, the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on two Russian oil producers, along with 183 vessels which are primarily oil tankers that have been shipping barrels of Russian crude. At present, tankers sanctioned by the U.S. are still permitted to offload crude oil until March 12.
The South Asian nation imported a significant 88% of its oil needs between April and November 2024, little changed from a year earlier, according to government data. Around 40% of those imports came from Russia, data from trade intelligence firm Kpler showed.
Out of the newly sanctioned 183 tankers, 75 of them have transported Russian oil to India in the past, according to data provided by Kpler. Just last year alone, the 183 sanctioned tankers transported around 687 million barrels of crude, of which 30% were shipped to India.
“Most of these barrels went to Indian refiners and, hence, the impact will likely be largest there,” BNP Paribas’ senior commodities strategist Aldo Spanier said in a research note following the sanctions.
The new U.S. sanctions were deeper and broader than foreseen by markets, and the disruptions are expected to amplify, Spanier added.
India’s Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas did not respond to a CNBC request for comment.
Oil prices year-on-year
The sanctions are also coming at a time when India is tipped to surpass China as the number one oil consumer in the world in 2025, accounting for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally.
Increasing demand for transportation fuels and home cooking fuels is set to spur this growth of 330,000 barrels per day this year — the most of any country, forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed.
India consumed 5.3 million barrels per day in 2023, EIA’s most recent data showed. This consumption is expected to have increased by 220,000 barrels per day last year.
India wasn’t always this dependent on Russian oil.
As recently as 2021, Russian oil accounted for just 12% of India’s oil imports by volume. By 2024, that share had spiked to 37.6%, Muyu Xu, senior oil analyst at Kpler told CNBC.
The catalyst for increased oil imports was the Ukraine war, which prompted some Western countries to impose sanctions against Russia and curtail their purchases of Russian crude. As prices of Russian oil fell, India was able to hoover up supplies cheaply from companies that were not under sanctions.
The discount of Russia’s crude, Urals, to the global benchmark Brent has averaged around $12 per barrel from last August to October, according to S&P Global’s most recently published data last November. In 2024, Russia’s Urals were also cheaper by $4 per barrel compared to oil from Iraq, one of India’s main sources of crude oil imports, data from Kpler showed.
“If India were to fully comply with U.S. sanctions, we could see a sharp decline in Russian crude arrivals in February and potentially March,” Xu added.
Supply disruptions to India could be as high as 500,000 barrels per day, Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Viktor Kurilov shared via email.
No more cheap alternatives?
While the impact may eventually be mitigated as affected importers scramble to source alternative suppliers in the Middle East, some industry watchers say that the relief might still take a few weeks to months to materialize.
Even then, the price of oil from these alternative sources will not be as cheap. The world’s crude benchmark Brent recently advanced to a five-month high to around $80 per barrel following the announcement of the sanctions, after a year of languishing from oversupply and weak demand.
Prices of Middle Eastern crude, which are amongst India’s alternatives, have also surged this week, data provided by Kpler suggested.
“Depending on how quickly Russia resolves its logistical challenges and how cooperative India and China remain with the sanctions, oil prices could spike for a few weeks,” Kpler’s Xu said.
Additionally, as Donald Trump’s inauguration draws closer, the world’s supply of cheap Iranian crude, is also facing the risk of tighter sanctions. Iran made up 4% of the world’s oil production in 2023, according to an EIA report released last year.
“It is [also] a bit of a double whammy for the key importer [India] as Iran will likely face new sanctions pressure with the incoming Trump administration,” Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told CNBC.
If the new sanctions are coupled with a potential curb on Iranian crude, Brent prices could rise even higher to $90 per barrel, Goldman Sachs wrote in a note published after the announcement of the sanctions.
An Indian economy pain point
The Indian economy is “significantly vulnerable” to fluctuations in oil prices, a research paper published in 2023 established. Domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel surge “like rockets” in response to rising crude oil prices, Abdhut Deheri, assistant economics professor at the Vellore Institute of Technology and M. Ramachandran from Pondicherry University’s department of economics said in the research paper.
Analysis from the Reserve Bank of India in 2019 found that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices could lead to a 0.4% increase in headline inflation.
“High oil prices, if passed to consumers, could further hurt their purchasing power at a time when income and GDP growth have slowed,” Dhiraj Nim, an economist at ANZ.
However, weak consumer demand could deter producers from passing on the cost burden to consumers, which means it could dent companies’ profits instead, Nim added. Although if the government chooses to shoulder the additional costs, it would strain its finances.
Not only will China and India have to pay more for the oil they consume, they will need to pay more to have it delivered to their shores because oil tanker rates have also risen, said Andy Lipow, president of energy consultancy Lipow Oil Associates.
Combined with a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker rupee, the impact on the India economy will be magnified, said Lipow.
India’s rupee recently plunged to a record low as a result of pressure from a strong greenback and selling by foreign portfolio investors.
The country is no stranger to protests over high fuel prices. In 2018, widespread protests across the country against record-high petrol and diesel prices led to the closure of businesses and schools in several regions.
The US Department of Energy (DOE) today announced $1.2 billion in financing to replace Puerto Rico’s fossil fuel plants with solar and battery storage through 2032.
The DOE’s Loan Programs Office announced two conditional commitments and one loan closing to power producers in Puerto Rico. Each supports a project contracted with the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority. The announcements include:
- The closing of a $584.5 million loan guarantee to subsidiaries of Convergent Energy to finance a 100 MW solar farm with a 55 MW (55 MWh) battery energy storage system (BESS) in the municipality of Coamo and BESS installations in the municipalities of Caguas (25MW/100MWh), Peñuelas (100MW/400MWh), and Ponce (up to 100MW/400MWh)
- A conditional commitment for a loan guarantee of up to $133.6 million to a subsidiary of Infinigen for a 32.1 MW solar farm with an integrated 14.45 MW (4.76 MWh) BESS, and a co-located standalone 50 MW (200 MWh) BESS expansion in the municipality of Yabucoa
- A conditional commitment for a loan guarantee of up to $489.4 million to a subsidiary of Pattern Energy for three stand-alone BESS in the municipalities of Arecibo (50 MW/200 MWh), and Santa Isabel (50 MW /200 MWh and 80 MW/320 MW), and a 70 MW solar farm with an integrated BESS in the municipality of Arecibo.
If all are finalized, these projects would more than double LPO’s support for utility-scale solar generation and battery energy storage in Puerto Rico.
LPO provides low-cost financing and a rigorous due diligence process, making it a valuable resource for Puerto Rico as it works to rebuild an affordable, reliable, and clean energy system. As a result of reliance on imported fuel, the persistent threat of tropical storms, and underinvested infrastructure, Puerto Ricans today face average energy costs that are twice the US average – all while consuming only one-quarter of the energy of the US per capita.
LPO’s initial loan to a power producer in Puerto Rico, Project Marahu, closed in October 2024, and when complete will add more than 200 MW of solar and up to 285 MW of stand-alone energy storage to Puerto Rico’s grid.
Through its September 2023 partial loan guarantee to Project Hestia, LPO also supports virtual power plant (VPP)-ready rooftop solar and battery storage installations in Puerto Rico. As a nationwide project, Hestia’s sponsor is committed to at least 20% of installations under Project Hestia going to homeowners in Puerto Rico.
As part of its procurement plan, Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority seeks to install 1,500 MW of battery storage and requires a minimum capacity of storage to be co-located with each utility-scale solar project. Energy storage systems currently online in Puerto Rico are being dispatched every day.
When including Marahu, LPO’s closed and conditionally committed financing supports over 100% of the capacity Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority aimed to procure under its initial request for energy storage project proposals, the first of six.
Read more: Cleantech investments to top fossil fuels for the first time in 2025
If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
Chevy just introduced new deals on the Equinox and Blazer EV models to make them even more affordable. With 0% interest and a new trade-in bonus, Chevy is offering over $5,000 in savings.
Chevy adds new Equinox and Blazer EV deals in January
Although the Chevy Equinox EV is already “the most affordable” EV in its class with over 315 miles range, it’s getting even cheaper.
Earlier this week, Chevy launched new deals on the 2024 Equinox and Blazer EV models. According to a note sent to dealers, viewed by CarsDirect, the electric SUVs are now available with 0% APR financing for 60 months. You can also choose from 0.9% AP for 72 months and 2.9% APR for 84 months.
This marks the best financing offer on Chevy’s newest EVs to date. The previous best rates were 0.9% APR for 60 months, 3.9% for 72 months, and 5.9% for the longer 84-month option.
On a 7-year $45,000 loan, online auto research firm CarsDirect estimates the new deals amount to around a $5,200 price cut. The lower APR rates are already offered on the Chevrolet Silverado EV pickup.
In addition, Chevy is offering a trade-in bonus of up to $3,000 on the Silverado EV and $1,000 on the electric Equinox and Blazer models. If you choose to lease, the bonus is cut in half: $1,500 for the Silverado and $500 for the electric SUVs.
Chevy’s new EV deals started on January 14 and run through March 3, 2025. The deals come as rivals like Hyundai and Ford recently launched new EV promotions.
On Thursday, Hyundai launched a new promo on the upgraded 2025 IONIQ 5, which includes monthly leases as low as $199 and a free ChargePoint home EV charger (or $400 charging credit). Meanwhile, Ford extended its “Power Promise” program earlier this month, which also includes a free home charger, among several other benefits.
The 2024 Chevy Equinox EV started at $41,900 with up to 315 miles range. Prices for the electric Chevy Blazer start at $43,690 with up to 279 miles range.
If you are ready to try out Chevy’s new electric SUVs for yourself, we’ve got you covered. You can use our links below to view offers on the Chevy Equinox, Silverado, and Blazer EV models near you.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss non-Tesla EVs getting Supercharger access, Cybertruck sales in the spotlight, Rivian getting some money from Biden, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports10 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway