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There has been a surge in the pace of wage growth but a rise in the jobless rate following a big drop in the number of payrolled employees, according to the latest official figures.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that both basic pay excluding bonuses, and average weekly earnings, rose at an annual rate of 5.6% in the three months to November.

That was up from a rate of 5.2% reported the previous month.

The ONS said the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.

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The employment figures were the first to take in possible early reaction to the budget, and may suggest some employers were eager to retain key staff through strong pay awards while others sought to cut costs amid the tough outlook and ahead of looming tax rises.

HMRC payroll data and ONS survey data both pointed to lower employment.

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The number of payrolled employees was estimated to have fallen by 47,000 during the 12 months to December to 30.3 million – the biggest drop since November 2020 – according to the taxman’s figures.

That was up on the 32,000 figure recorded the previous month.

The data was seen as supporting recent private sector survey findings of a firing spree ahead of Christmas due to the impact of the budget.

The report was released against a backdrop of recent financial market turmoil, partly linked to concerns over the state of the UK economy following the 30 October budget but mainly the potential impact of a fresh Donald Trump presidency.

Sterling has lost 12 cents versus the dollar since September while government borrowing costs have risen generally, placing a big strain on Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spending rules and bringing her stewardship of the economy under greater focus.

Last Friday, following data showing weak retail sales during the crucial Christmas month, sterling fell again but on the back of growing expectations that the mounting evidence of a flatlining economy would give the Bank of England more room to cut interest rates.

Some market commentators, and even the Bank’s newest rate-setter, believe borrowing costs will be cut four times this year though the market has currently only fully priced in two reductions.

Investors currently see an 84% probability of a Bank rate cut at the next meeting on 6 February, from 4.75% to 4.5%.

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Inflation eases to 2.5%

The last set of inflation figures, which showed a surprise easing in the headline figure, will have given the Bank some encouragement but economists see a rate back above 3% by April given expected increases in many costs, including energy and water bills, from that month.

While the budget tax measures on business sparked warnings of rising prices to offset billions of extra costs, it could also be the case that threatened hits to wages and jobs will help Bank policymakers make the argument for rate cuts.

Yael Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, said of the outlook: “We expect pay growth to trend downwards over the coming year, with the backdrop of slowing labour market activity.

“Forward looking indicators suggest a significant weakening in hiring intentions due to the upcoming tax rises in April. We expect this to act as a headwind for labour market activity in the near term, likely translating into a small pick up in headline unemployment over the coming months. Nonetheless, once the impact of the budget passes together with the expected improvement in economic activity, conditions should stabilise in the labour market.

“Wage growth is expected to return closer to levels consistent with the inflation target this year, despite the recent increase. The rise in business costs due to the Budget measures should have a cooling effect on labour market activity and make higher wage settlements less likely. As a result, it is anticipated the Bank of England will opt for an interest rate cut next month, and two further rates cuts in 2025.”

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Carlyle seizes control of online retailer Very Group

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Carlyle seizes control of online retailer Very Group

The unravelling of the Barclay family’s business empire will continue this week when Carlyle, the US-based investment giant, formally takes control of The Very Group, one of Britain’s biggest online retailers.

Sky News has learnt that the company, which boasts annual revenues of over £2bn and is chaired by Nadhim Zahawi, the former Conservative chancellor, will announce on Monday that Carlyle has become its controlling shareholder.

IMI, the Abu Dhabi-based media group which has been part of efforts to take control of The Daily Telegraph since 2023, will remain a lender to The Very Group.

Sources said the company’s directors had held a board meeting on Sunday to ratify the changes.

The transaction brings to an end more than 20 years of the Barclay family’s involvement with the business, which was known as Littlewoods when it last changed hands in 2002 in a £750m deal.

Nasdaq-listed Carlyle injected several hundred million pounds into Very Group’s capital structure, paving the way for it to take ownership control under the terms of the financing.

Sources said the change of control would provide the online retailer with a stronger capital base and greater financial flexibility to support a concerted growth effort.

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Previously known as Shop Direct, Very Group employs thousands of people, and sells general merchandise under the Very and Littlewoods brands, encompassing electrical goods, homewares, fashion and toys.

It has 4.4million customers and operates a major consumer finance business to help shoppers manage their payments.

Mr Zahawi was appointed as the company’s chairman last year, days after he announced that he was standing down as the MP for Stratford-on-Avon at the July 2024 general election.

He replaced Aidan Barclay, a senior member of the family which has owned the business for 23 years.

In its latest full-year results, group chief executive Robbie Feather announced a 16% increase in adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization to £307m.

Carlyle’s move to take control of Very Group was revealed by Sky News in the summer.

Earlier this year, the company borrowed a further £600m from Arini, a Mayfair-based fund, as it sought to stave off a cash crunch and buy itself breathing space.

The Barclay family drew up plans to hire bankers to run an auction of Very Group earlier this year, but a process was never formally launched.

Retail industry insiders have long speculated that the business was likely to be valued in the region of £2.5bn – below the valuation which the Barclay family was holding out for in an auction which took place several years ago.

The Barclays, who used to own London’s Ritz hotel, have already lost control of other corporate assets including the Yodel parcel delivery service, as well as the Telegraph newspapers.

Carlyle, which declined to comment, could hold onto the business for a significant period before looking to offload it.

Very Group also declined to comment on Sunday.

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New compensation scheme for Post Office victims is ‘half-baked’, Sir Alan Bates warns

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New compensation scheme for Post Office victims is 'half-baked', Sir Alan Bates warns

Sir Alan Bates has told Sky News that the government’s new Capture Redress Scheme is “half-baked”.

The Post Office scandal campaigner, who may also be a victim of Capture, accused officials of not learning lessons from previous compensation failures.

Capture was a piece of faulty computer software used in about 2,500 branches between 1992 and 1999 before the infamous Horizon scandal.

Many sub-postmasters made up potentially false accounting shortfalls from their own pocket, with dozens, at least, convicted of stealing.

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Sir Alan Bates reaches settlement with govt

Sir Alan welcomed the launch of the first ever Capture Redress Scheme last week “in general”.

However, he added: “It does seem to have gone off half-baked with almost none of the lessons that should have been learnt from the failures of the other Postmaster Schemes having been applied when compiling it.”

Sir Alan Bates, who has settled his redress claim with the government in connection with Horizon, also confirmed he may have been a victim of Capture.

He said: “I have documentation which shows that a PC running Capture was part of the inventory when we purchased our sub-post office and I know it was used until it was replaced by the infamous Horizon system toward the end of 2000.”

Despite this, Sir Alan said that – with the information he has about the scheme and making a claim – “it does seem I may not be able submit one”.

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Will Post Office victims be cleared?

Under the current rules, it appears claimants must submit a fully itemised claim before the Department for Business and Trade (DBT) will decide if they qualify – a process Sir Alan described as “mad”.

“We could spend a year compiling a claim only for the DBT to say we weren’t eligible in the first place.”

He called for a two-stage process: first to confirm eligibility, then to allow victims to build their case with legal support – a model he says would save time, money and avoid unnecessary legal costs.

The revelation that Sir Alan may have been a Capture victim – and didn’t realise until later on – raises fresh concerns about how many others remain unaware.

In a statement to Sky News, a government spokesperson said: “After over two decades of fighting for justice, victims will finally receive redress for being impacted by the Capture software and we pay tribute to all of those who have worked to expose this scandal.

“All eligible applicants will receive an interim payment of £10,000. In exceptional circumstances, the independent panel can award above £300,000, which is not a cap.

“We have been in contact with Sir Alan’s legal representative and stand ready to provide further information to help all claimants.”

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‘This waiting is just unbearable’

It comes as documents seen by Sky News suggest that the Post Office knew about faults in Capture computer software before it was rolled out in 1992.

Notes from a meeting of “the Capture steering group” held in February – months before the system was introduced to branches – described files as being “corrupted”.

It highlighted that: “If the power was switched off when a file was open it would be corrupted. In this situation data should be checked and reinput.”

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‘All we want is her name cleared’

Another fault mentioned in the meeting notes was if “part of the system was closed early, to produce client summaries any additional transactions might not be captured for that day”.

“If a high error rate was detected the software would need to be reworked.”

A document called “Capture Troubleshooting Guide” from April 1993 – over a year after the steering group noted faults – again described “corrupt data” such as incorrect transaction values.

It concluded that the “cause” of this was “switching off the computer or a power cut (even if only for a few seconds) whilst in the Capture programme”.

It also put forward instructions to remedy the fault.

Rupert Lloyd-Thomas, campaigner for Capture victims, said: “The Post Office knew … in 1992, long before the launch, that Capture could be zapped by a power cut.

“They did nothing about it.”

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Steve Marston
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Steve Marston

Steve Marston, who was convicted of stealing from his Post Office branch in 1998 after using Capture, said the information “didn’t come as any surprise”.

“They’ve known since the very beginning it should never have been released,” he added.

A Post Office spokesperson said: “We have been very concerned about the reported problems relating to the use of the Capture software and are sincerely sorry for past failings that have caused suffering to postmasters.

“In September 2024, Kroll published an independent report which examined the Capture software that was used in some Post Office branches in the 1990s and we fully co-operated with Kroll throughout their investigation.

“We are determined that past wrongs are put right and are continuing to support the government’s work in this area.

“Post Office has very limited records relating to this system and we encourage anyone who has Capture related material to share it with Post Office and the Criminal Cases Review Commission.”

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Why a Sky-ITV deal makes sense in a shifting entertainment landscape

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Why a Sky-ITV deal makes sense in a shifting entertainment landscape

The proposed £1.6bn takeover of a big chunk of ITV by Sky would be the biggest consolidation in British broadcasting in more than 20 years, and reflects fundamental changes in viewing habits and commercial realities.

For Sky, a deal that brings together Ant and Dec with Gary Neville and Jamie Carragher would make it the UK’s largest commercial broadcaster, and strengthen its hand in the battle with US streaming giants that have upended the entertainment business.

For ITV’s shareholders, who have seen the value of their investment decline as advertising revenue, like viewers, has migrated online, it may be a chance to say, “I own a terrestrial broadcaster, get me out of here.”

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Neither Sky or ITV would publicly discuss who made the initial offer, and both stress that talks are at an early stage, but privately, both sides emphasise the mutual opportunity.

For Sky, owned by US giant Comcast since 2018, there is the opportunity to create a larger pool of content and subscribers.

The deal would see it acquire ITV’s media and entertainment business, including its free-to-air channels and public sector broadcaster (PSB) licence, which runs to 2034, as well as the ITVX streaming platform, which has 40 million registered users.

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Ant and Dec host I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here! on ITV Pic: ITV
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Ant and Dec host I’m A Celebrity… Get Me Out Of Here! on ITV Pic: ITV

The ITV brand is likely to be retained, and the two companies run separately, but Sky would look to leverage its commercial and technology strengths.

ITV’s PSB licence includes the requirement that ITV’s app be “available, prominent and easily accessible” on online platforms, a crucial shop window as viewers access content directly.

Added to Sky’s existing 13 million subscribers for largely pay-walled content in the UK, it would add muscle as the broadcaster competes for attention, subscription revenue and advertiser spend.

The acquisition would be a restatement of commitment to Sky from Comcast. Having paid £31bn for Sky in a bidding war with Disney seven years ago, it wrote down that investment by more than £6bn in 2022, and earlier this year announced the sale of Sky Deutschland.

While it is navigating the conclusion of exclusivity deals with content providers, including with HBO that gave it rights to hits including Succession, the £5bn renewal of Premier League rights this season underlined the centrality of sport to Sky’s offer.

Sky would bring its own content and rights, such as those for Premier League football, to the table. Pic: PA
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Sky would bring its own content and rights, such as those for Premier League football, to the table. Pic: PA


Scale matters because even companies as prominent in the UK as Sky and ITV are competing with giants, both for audiences and advertisers.

Netflix has 301 million subscribers worldwide and annual revenues approaching $40bn. Amazon, the largest retailer in the world, is now an entertainment content provider. In the US, Warner Bros. Discovery is considering a sale, having already rejected reported offers worth more than $60bn.

Google and Meta, meanwhile, gobble up to 60% of all UK advertising spend, a shift in the last decade that has hit ITV particularly hard.

US platforms dominate the streaming space. Pic: iStock
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US platforms dominate the streaming space. Pic: iStock

When it was founded 70 years ago, the third channel was the only way advertisers could reach television viewers. Today, it and Sky are competing for a slice of a shrinking pie, with one source citing an estimate that their combined UK advertising revenue is nine times smaller than Google and Meta’s.

Any proposed deal will face regulatory scrutiny from Ofcom and the Competition and Markets Authority, but both parties will argue that these commercial realities mean consolidation would strengthen the broadcast sector rather than weaken it.

ITV still generates critical and commercial hits and live moments. Last year, the largest audiences for sport (England’s Euro 2024 semi-final), drama (Mr Bates v the Post Office) and entertainment (I’m a Celebrity) were all on ITV.

Translating that into a commercial model that satisfies investors has proved difficult, with the general drift of the UK economy not helping. The 19% bump in the share price on news of the proposed takeover may be a welcome series finale.

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