On Monday, Chinese artificial intelligence startup DeepSeek took over rival OpenAI’s coveted spot as the most-downloaded free app in the U.S. on Apple‘s App Store, dethroning ChatGPT for DeepSeek’s AI Assistant. Global tech stocks sold off and were on pace to wipe out billions in market cap.
Later on Monday, DeepSeek said it would temporarily limit user registrations “due to large-scale malicious attacks” on its services, though existing users will be able to log in as usual.
Tech leaders, analysts, investors and developers say that the hype — and ensuing fear of falling behind in the ever-changing AI hype cycle — may be warranted. Especially in the era of the generative AI arms race, where tech giants and startups alike are racing to ensure they don’t fall behind in a market predicted to top $1 trillion in revenue within a decade.
What is DeepSeek?
DeepSeek was founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, co-founder of High-Flyer, a quantitative hedge fund focused on AI. The AI startup reportedly grew out of the hedge fund’s AI research unit in April 2023 to focus on large language models and reaching artificial general intelligence, or AGI — a branch of AI that equals or surpasses human intellect on a wide range of tasks, which OpenAI and its rivals say they’re fast pursuing. DeepSeek is still wholly owned by and funded by High-Flyer, according to analysts at Jefferies.
The buzz around DeepSeek began picking up steam earlier this month, when the startup released R1, its reasoning model that rivals OpenAI’s o1. It’s open-source, meaning that any AI developer can use it, and has rocketed to the top of app stores and industry leaderboards, with users praising its performance and reasoning capabilities.
Like other Chinese chatbots, it has its limitations when asked about certain topics: When asked about some of Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s policies, for instance, DeepSeek reportedly steers the user away from similar lines of questioning.
Another key part of the discussion: DeepSeek’s R1 was built despite the U.S. curbing chip exports to China three times in three years. Estimates differ on exactly how much DeepSeek’s R1 costs, or how many GPUs went into it. Jefferies analysts estimated that a recent version had a “training cost of only US$5.6m (assuming US$2/H800 hour rental cost). That is less than 10% of the cost of Meta‘s Llama.” But regardless of the specific numbers, reports agree that the model was developed at a fraction of the cost of rival models by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and others.
As a result, the AI sector is awash with questions, including whether the industry’s increasing number of astronomical funding rounds and billion-dollar valuations is necessary — and whether a bubble is about to burst.
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Shares of Nvidia fell nearly 16% on Monday, with chipmaker ASML down nearly 7%. The Nasdaq dropped more than 3%. Four tech giants — Meta, Microsoft, Apple and ASML are all set to report earnings this week.
Analysts at Raymond James detailed some of the questions plaguing the AI industry this month, writing, “What are the investment implications? What does it say about open sourced vs. proprietary models? Is throwing money at GPUs really a panacea? Are U.S. export restrictions working? What are the broader implications of [DeepSeek]? Well, they could be dire, or a non-event, but rest assured, the industry is abuzz with disbelief and speculation.”
Bernstein analysts wrote in a note Monday that “according to the many (occasionally hysterical) hot takes we saw [over the weekend,] the implications range anywhere from ‘That’s really interesting’ to ‘This is the death-knell of the AI infrastructure complex as we know it.'”
How U.S. companies are responding
Some American tech CEOs are clambering to respond before clients switch to potentially cheaper offerings from DeepSeek, with Meta reportedly starting four DeepSeek-related “war rooms” within its generative AI department.
Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella wrote on X that the DeepSeek phenomenon was just an example of the Jevons paradox, writing, “As AI gets more efficient and accessible, we will see its use skyrocket, turning it into a commodity we just can’t get enough of.” OpenAI CEO Sam Altman tweeted a quote he attributed to Napoleon, writing, “A revolution can be neither made nor stopped. The only thing that can be done is for one of several of its children to give it a direction by dint of victories.”
Yann LeCun, Meta’s chief AI scientist, wrote on LinkedIn that DeepSeek’s success is indicative of changing tides in the AI sector to favor open-source technology.
LeCun wrote that DeepSeek has profited from some of Meta’s own technology, i.e., its Llama models, and that the startup “came up with new ideas and built them on top of other people’s work. Because their work is published and open source, everyone can profit from it. That is the power of open research and open source.”
Alexandr Wang, CEO of Scale AI, told CNBC last week that DeepSeek’s last AI model was “earth-shattering” and that its R1 release is even more powerful.
“What we’ve found is that DeepSeek … is the top performing, or roughly on par with the best American models,” Wang said, adding that the AI race between the U.S. and China is an “AI war.” Wang’s company provides training data to key AI players including OpenAI, Google and Meta.
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump announced a joint venture with OpenAI, Oracle and SoftBank to invest billions of dollars in U.S. AI infrastructure. The project, Stargate, was unveiled at the White House by Trump, SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, Oracle co-founder Larry Ellison and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman. Key initial technology partners will include Microsoft, Nvidia and Oracle, as well as semiconductor company Arm. They said they would invest $100 billion to start and up to $500 billion over the next four years.
AI evolving
News of DeepSeek’s prowess also comes amid the growing hype around AI agents — models that go beyond chatbots to complete multistep complex tasks for a user — which tech giants and startups alike are chasing. Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI and Anthropic have all expressed their goal of building agentic AI.
Anthropic, the Amazon-backed AI startup founded by ex-OpenAI research executives, ramped up its technology development throughout the past year, and in October, the startup said that its AI agents were able to use computers like humans to complete complex tasks. Anthropic’s Computer Use capability allows its technology to interpret what’s on a computer screen, select buttons, enter text, navigate websites and execute tasks through any software and real-time internet browsing, the startup said.
The tool can “use computers in basically the same way that we do,” Jared Kaplan, Anthropic’s chief science officer, told CNBC in an interview at the time. He said it can do tasks with “tens or even hundreds of steps.”
OpenAI released a similar tool last week, introducing a feature called Operator that will automate tasks such as planning vacations, filling out forms, making restaurant reservations and ordering groceries.
The Microsoft-backed startup describes it as “an agent that can go to the web to perform tasks for you,” and added that it is trained to interact with “the buttons, menus, and text fields that people use daily” on the web. It can also ask follow-up questions to further personalize the tasks it completes, such as login information for other websites. Users can take control of the screen at any time.
A logo hangs on the building of the Beijing branch of Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) on December 4, 2020 in Beijing, China.
Taiwan’s Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau (MIJB) said in a statement that SMIC had used a Samoa-based entity as cover to set up a subsidiary on the island “under the guise of foreign investment” and has been “actively recruiting” talent from Taiwan.
CNBC was unable to independently verify the claims and SMIC was not immediately available for comment.
The ministry said Taiwan began investigating the issue in December 2024. Eleven Chinese enterprises suspected of paoching talent were investigated, it said, with agents conducting searches at 34 locations and questioning 90 individuals.
SMIC is China’s biggest semiconductor manufacturing firm. It was thrust into the spotlight in 2023 when it was revealed to be the maker of the 7 nanometer chip in Huawei’s smartphone at the time. A few years prior, SMIC was put on a U.S. government export blacklist.
China has been trying to ramp up its chipmaking capabilities via SMIC, but the company remains behind competitors like TSMC in Taiwan. Chip export restrictions imposed by the U.S. also mean SMIC is unable to access the latest chipmaking tools from critical suppliers like ASML that could allow it to catch up.
Taiwan is a hotbed of talent in the semiconductor industry as it is home to TSMC, the world’s biggest and most advanced chipmaker. The U.S. has sought to tap into this talent, and bring more chipmaking capabilities to its shores, by convincing TSMC to build more manufacturing capacity in the country.
Taiwan’s MJIB said it set up a special task force at the end of 2020 to investigate allegations of “illegal poaching” of talent.
“Chinese enterprises often disguise their identities through various means, including setting up operations under the guise of Taiwanese, overseas Chinese, or foreign-invested companies, while in reality being backed by Chinese capital, establishing unauthorized business locations in Taiwan without government approval, and using employment agencies to falsely assign employees to Taiwanese firm,” the ministry said.
The subsidiary will include Ubisoft’s best-known games brands, including Assassin’s Creed, Far Cry and Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six, according to a press release.
Ubisoft shares jumped 11% Friday morning before paring gains later in the day to trade 9% higher.
The game maker said Thursday that its newly formed unit would “focus on building game ecosystems designed to become truly evergreen and multi-platform.”
The investment from Tencent values the new subsidiary at 4 billion euros, Ubisoft said. That’s more than double Ubisoft’s current market capitalization.
Investors were hoping for a move from Ubisoft to clear up uncertainty surrounding its future after a series of challenges faced by the firm in recent years.
Ubisoft has been plagued by various issues, from financial struggles to delays to some of its key games — including its most recently released Assassin’s Creed Shadows title.
In February, the firm reported a 52% drop in fiscal third-quarter net bookings, beset by underperformance of some of its key games.
Ubisoft released its newest title Assassin’s Creed Shadows, the latest installment in Ubisoft’s top game franchise, last week.
The game secured generally positive reviews, getting an average reviewer score of 82 on review aggregation site Metacritic.
Unitree’s G1 robot at the Mobile World Congress 2025 in Barcelona, Spain, on March 6, 2025.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images
American tech giants like Tesla and Nvidia are racing to develop humanoid robots, stressing their importance to the future economy. But analysts warn they are already at risk of losing out to China.
So-called humanoid robots — artificial intelligence-powered machines designed to resemble humans in appearance and movement — are expected to provide a range of use cases, such as filling industrial and service sector jobs.
Investor excitement surrounding the robots has been mounting amid increased mentions from tech leaders like Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who ushered in “the age of generalist robotics” earlier this month when announcing a new portfolio of technologies for humanoid robot development.
In the manufacturing of the robots themselves, Tesla’s humanoid robot project, Optimus, appears to be leading in the U.S., with CEO Elon Musk announcing plans to produce about 5,000 units this year.
While Musk’s ambitious plans could give it a leg up on U.S. competitors like Apptronik and Boston Dynamics that are yet to hit the mass market, he will face stiff competition from a familiar source: China.
Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia, speaks about humanoids during the 2025 CES event in Las Vegas on Jan. 6, 2025.
Bridget Bennett | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Hangzhou-based Unitree Robotics last month briefly sold two humanoid robots to consumers on the e-commerce platform JD.com, as per local media. Meanwhile, Shanghai-based robotics startup Agibot, also known as Zhiyuan Robotics, has matched Optimus’s goal to produce 5,000 robots this year, according to the South China Morning Post.
As Chinese electric vehicle companies like BYD begin outpacing Tesla’s growth and undercutting its prices, experts say a similar dynamic could play out in humanoid robotics.
“China has the potential to replicate its disruptive impact from the EV industry in the humanoid space. However, this time the disruption could extend far beyond a single industry, potentially transforming the labor force itself,” said Reyk Knuhtsen, analyst at SemiAnalysis, an independent research and analysis company specializing in semiconductors and AI.
Dancing on the competition?
In a research note in February, Morgan Stanley estimated that current building costs of humanoid robots could range from $10,000 to $300,000 per unit, given different configurations and downstream application requirements.
However, Chinese companies are already undercutting U.S. competitors in terms of price thanks to superior economies of scale and manufacturing capabilities, according to Knuhtsen.
For example, Unitree released its G1 humanoid robot for consumers in May with a starting price of $16,000. In comparison, Morgan Stanley estimates that the selling cost of Tesla’s Optimus Gen2 humanoid robot could be around $20,000, but only if the company is able to scale, shorten its research and development cycle, and use cost-effective components from China.
Unitree made a major splash in the robot’s space in January when 16 of its highest-performing H1 humanoid robots joined a group of human dancers to celebrate the Lunar New Year in a demonstration broadcast on national television.
But there are signs that China’s progress in robots go much further. Morgan Stanley’s February research note found that the country has led the world in patent filings mentioning “humanoid” over the past five years, with 5,688 patents compared with 1,483 from the United States.
Large players such as Xiaomi and EV makers, such as BYD, Chery, and Xpeng, are also involved in the humanoid robot space.
“Our research suggests China continues to show the most impressive progress in humanoid robotics where startups are benefitting from established supply chains, local adoption opportunities, and strong degrees of national government support,” the note said.
Beijing has increasingly backed the space, with government departments promoting their development. In 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines for the space, calling for “production at scale” by 2025.
According to Ming Hsun Lee, head of Greater China automotive and industrials research at BofA Global Research, China sees humanoid robots as an important industry because of their potential to mitigate looming labor shortages.
“I think in the short-term, three to four years, we will see humanoid robots initially applied in production lines to compare some workers, and in the midterm, we will see them gradually spread into the service industry,” he said.
Musk predicted that he’d have over 1,000, or a few thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla in 2025. According to Chinese state media, EV makers like BYD and Geely have already deployed some of Unitree’s humanoid robots at their factories.
Lee said that increased adoption will coincide with a “very fast” decline in component costs, also noting that China owns around 70% of the supply chain for these components.
According to a report by SemiAnalysis earlier this month, the Unitree G1 — “the only viable humanoid robot on the market” — is entirely decoupled from American components.
The report warns that China is the only country positioned to reap the economic awards of intelligent robotics systems, including humanoid robots, which “poses an existential threat to the US as it is outcompeted in all capacities.”
“To catch up, U.S. players must rapidly mobilize a strong manufacturing and industrial base, whether domestically or through allied nations … For Tesla and similar firms, it may be wise to begin reshoring or ‘friendshoring’ their component sourcing and manufacturing to reduce reliance on China,” said SemiAnalysis’ Knuhtsen.
Bank of America analysts predicted in a research note this month that the deployment of humanoid robots will accelerate rapidly, aided by the development of AI, with global annual sales reaching 1 million units by 2030 and 3 billion humanoid robots in operation by 2060.