A sales clerk shows off Elpida Memory Inc. memory chips at an electronics shop in Tokyo, Japan, on Thursday, March 5, 2009.
Tomohiro Ohsumi | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Shares in Japan’s chip-related companies extended declines for a second day as Chinese startup DeepSeek’s AI competitiveness calls into question the United States’ leadership in the field.
Softbank Group, which owns chip designer Arm, slid 5.26%. Data center-related shares also continued to take a hit, with wire and cable firms Furukawa and Fujikura dropping 8.22% and 8.1%, respectively.
DeepSeek released a free, open-source large language model in late December, claiming it was created in only two months with a budget of under $6 million. Last week, the lab introduced R1, a reasoning model that outperformed OpenAI’s latest o1 in several third-party tests.
“There will be a lot more pain to follow today as we follow the U.S. down,” said Andrew Jackson, head of equity strategy at ORTUS Advisors.
“The big questions is whether the U.S. will U-turn on their approach and deregulate chip and SPE restrictions seeing as they are (currently) ineffectual or try and ramp things up even more,” Jackson wrote in an email. DeepSeek had to navigate strict semiconductor restrictions imposed by the U.S. government on China, which limited access to advanced chips.
“DeepSeek is a risk to the U.S. exceptionalism narrative, further questioning the ‘Magnificent 7’ dominance,” Citi analysts wrote in a note.
Sell-off in chip stocks ‘quite a mistake’
Chip giant Nvidia lost almost $600 billion in market cap on Monday, logging the largest drop for a company in a single day in the U.S. The company posted its worst day in the market since March 2020 after its stock price plunged 17%. However, a rotation into more defensive areas of the U.S. market helped ease Monday’s losses.
Overnight, other chip-related shares in international markets also fell. Netherlands-based chip companies ASML and ASM International saw declines during European trading hours. Micron and Arm Holdings dropped more than 11% and 10%, respectively.
DeepSeek either builds on existing inference infrastructure, or will itself stimulate new AI demand, said Richard Kaye, an analyst at global asset management group Comgest.
“In both cases, semiconductor intensity remains high,” Kaye told CNBC via email.
“The deep fall in semiconductor equipment stocks, Tokyo Electron, ASML, Applied Materials, is quite a mistake,” he added.
Chinese artificial intelligence firm DeepSeek rocked markets this week with claims its new AI model outperforms OpenAI’s and cost a fraction of the price to build.
The assertions — specifically that DeepSeek’s large language model cost just $5.6 million to train — have sparked concerns over the eyewatering sums that tech giants are currently spending on computing infrastructure required to train and run advanced AI workloads.
But not everyone is convinced by DeepSeek’s claims.
CNBC asked industry experts for their views on DeepSeek, and how it actually compares to OpenAI, creator of viral chatbot ChatGPT which sparked the AI revolution.
What is DeepSeek?
Last week, DeepSeek released R1, its new reasoning model that rivals OpenAI’s o1. A reasoning model is a large language model that breaks prompts down into smaller pieces and considers multiple approaches before generating a response. It is designed to process complex problems in a similar way to humans.
DeepSeek was founded in 2023 by Liang Wenfeng, co-founder of AI-focused quantitative hedge fund High-Flyer, to focus on large language models and reaching artificial general intelligence, or AGI.
AGI as a concept loosely refers to the idea of an AI that equals or surpasses human intellect on a wide range of tasks.
Much of the technology behind R1 isn’t new. What is notable, however, is that DeepSeek is the first to deploy it in a high-performing AI model with — according to the company — considerable reductions in power requirements.
“The takeaway is that there are many possibilities to develop this industry. The high-end chip/capital intensive way is one technological approach,” said Xiaomeng Lu, director of Eurasia Group’s geo-technology practice.
“But DeepSeek proves we are still in the nascent stage of AI development and the path established by OpenAI may not be the only route to highly capable AI.”
How is it different from OpenAI?
DeepSeek has two main systems that have garnered buzz from the AI community: V3, the large language model that unpins its products, and R1, its reasoning model.
Both models are open-source, meaning their underlying code is free and publicly available for other developers to customize and redistribute.
DeepSeek’s models are much smaller than many other large language models. V3 has a total of 671 billion parameters, or variables that the model learns during training. And while OpenAI doesn’t disclose parameters, experts estimate its latest model to have at least a trillion.
In terms of performance, DeepSeek says its R1 model achieves performance comparable to OpenAI’s o1 on reasoning tasks, citing benchmarks including AIME 2024, Codeforces, GPQA Diamond, MATH-500, MMLU and SWE-bench Verified.
Read more DeepSeek coverage
In a technical report, the company said its V3 model had a training cost of only $5.6 million — a fraction of the billions of dollars that notable Western AI labs such as OpenAI and Anthropic have spent to train and run their foundational AI models. It isn’t yet clear how much DeepSeek costs to run, however.
If the training costs are accurate, though, it means the model was developed at a fraction of the cost of rival models by OpenAI, Anthropic, Google and others.
Daniel Newman, CEO of tech insight firm The Futurum Group, said these developments suggest “a massive breakthrough,” although he shed some doubt on the exact figures.
“I believe the breakthroughs of DeepSeek indicate a meaningful inflection for scaling laws and are a real necessity,” he said. “Having said that, there are still a lot of questions and uncertainties around the full picture of costs as it pertains to the development of DeepSeek.”
Meanwhile, Paul Triolio, senior VP for China and technology policy lead at advisory firm DGA Group, noted it was difficult to draw a direct comparison between DeepSeek’s model cost and that of major U.S. developers.
“The 5.6 million figure for DeepSeek V3 was just for one training run, and the company stressed that this did not represent the overall cost of R&D to develop the model,” he said. “The overall cost then was likely significantly higher, but still lower than the amount spent by major US AI companies.”
DeepSeek wasn’t immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.
Comparing DeepSeek, OpenAI on price
DeepSeek and OpenAI both disclose pricing for their models’ computations on their websites.
DeepSeek says R1 costs 55 cents per 1 million tokens of inputs — “tokens” referring to each individual unit of text processed by the model — and $2.19 per 1 million tokens of output.
In comparison, OpenAI’s pricing page for o1 shows the firm charges $15 per 1 million input tokens and $60 per 1 million output tokens. For GPT-4o mini, OpenAI’s smaller, low-cost language model, the firm charges 15 cents per 1 million input tokens.
Skepticism over chips
DeepSeek’s reveal of R1 has already led to heated public debate over the veracity of its claim — not least because its models were built despite export controls from the U.S. restricting the use of advanced AI chips to China.
DeepSeek claims it had its breakthrough using mature Nvidia clips, including H800 and A100 chips, which are less advanced than the chipmaker’s cutting-edge H100s, which can’t be exported to China.
However, in comments to CNBC last week, Scale AI CEO Alexandr Wang, said he believed DeepSeek used the banned chips — a claim that DeepSeek denies.
Nvidia has since come out and said that the GPUs that DeepSeek used were fully export-compliant.
The real deal or not?
Industry experts seem to broadly agree that what DeepSeek has achieved is impressive, although some have urged skepticism over some of the Chinese company’s claims.
“DeepSeek is legitimately impressive, but the level of hysteria is an indictment of so many,” U.S. entrepreneur Palmer Luckey, who founded Oculus and Anduril wrote on X.
“The $5M number is bogus. It is pushed by a Chinese hedge fund to slow investment in American AI startups, service their own shorts against American titans like Nvidia, and hide sanction evasion.”
Seena Rejal, chief commercial officer of NetMind, a London-headquartered startup that offers access to DeepSeek’s AI models via a distributed GPU network, said he saw no reason not to believe DeepSeek.
“Even if it’s off by a certain factor, it still is coming in as greatly efficient,” Rejal told CNBC in a phone interview earlier this week. “The logic of what they’ve explained is very sensible.”
However, some have claimed DeepSeek’s technology might not have been built from scratch.
“DeepSeek makes the same mistakes O1 makes, a strong indication the technology was ripped off,” billionaire investor Vinod Khosla said on X, without giving more details.
It’s a claim that OpenAI itself has alluded to, telling CNBC in a statement Wednesday that it is reviewing reports DeepSeek may have “inappropriately” used output data from its models to develop their AI model, a method referred to as “distillation.”
“We take aggressive, proactive countermeasures to protect our technology and will continue working closely with the U.S. government to protect the most capable models being built here,” an OpenAI spokesperson told CNBC.
Commoditization of AI
However the scrutiny surrounding DeepSeek shakes out, AI scientists broadly agree it marks a positive step for the industry.
Yann LeCun, chief AI scientist at Meta, said that DeepSeek’s success represented a victory for open-source AI models, not necessarily a win for China over the U.S. Meta is behind a popular open-source AI model called Llama.
“To people who see the performance of DeepSeek and think: ‘China is surpassing the US in AI.’ You are reading this wrong. The correct reading is: ‘Open source models are surpassing proprietary ones’,” he said in a post on LinkedIn.
“DeepSeek has profited from open research and open source (e.g. PyTorch and Llama from Meta). They came up with new ideas and built them on top of other people’s work. Because their work is published and open source, everyone can profit from it. That is the power of open research and open source.”
(L-R) Priscilla Chan, CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, and Lauren Sanchez attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on January 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg praised the Trump administration for backing Silicon Valley on a call with investors, adding that 2025 will be big for “redefining” the company’s relationships with governments.
“We now have a U.S. administration that is proud of our leading companies, prioritizes American technology winning and that will defend our values and interests abroad,” Zuckerberg said Wednesday. “I am optimistic about the progress and innovation that this can unlock, so this is going to be a big year.”
Meta on Wednesday also agreed to pay $25 million to settle a lawsuit with President Donald Trump, according to NBC News. Trump sued Meta after the company suspended his Facebook and Instagram accounts following the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Zuckerberg and Meta have made several public efforts to smooth over relations with President Donald Trump since his victory in November. The company donated $1 million to Trump’s inaugural fund late last year, weeks after Zuckerberg dined with him privately at his Mar-a-Lago resort.
Earlier this month, Zuckerberg announced that Meta would eliminate third-party fact-checking to “restore free expression” to the company’s platforms. He said the fact-checkers had been “too politically biased” and “destroyed more trust than they’ve created, especially in the U.S.”
The move was widely recognized as a nod to Trump, as he and other Republicans have long claimed that Meta’s platforms like Facebook and Instagram censor conservative views. Zuckerberg and Trump have had an especially rocky relationship in the past, as Trump has previously threatened the tech executive with life in prison.
The company also elevated Joel Kaplan, former White House deputy chief of staff under President George W. Bush with longstanding ties to the Republican Party, to its chief policy role earlier this month.
Zuckerberg’s public concessions appear to be earning him some good will, as he attended Trump’s inauguration alongside other tech moguls like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos this month.
Shares of Meta were up slightly in extended trading Wednesday after the company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street’s expectations on top and bottom lines.
–CNBC’s Jonathan Vanian contributed to this report
Mark Zuckerberg, CEO of Meta Platforms, demonstrates the Meta Quest Pro during the virtual Meta Connect event in New York on Oct. 11, 2022.
Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Meta continues to lose billions of dollars developing the virtual reality and augmented reality technologies needed to underpin the nascent metaverse.
The social media giant reported fourth-quarter earnings Wednesday and said its Reality Labs unit recorded an operating loss of $4.97 billion while generating $1.1 billion in sales. Analysts were projecting that unit to log a fourth-quarter operating loss of $5.4 billion on $1.1 billion in sales.
Reality Labs is Meta’s unit that makes the Quest family of virtual-reality headsets and Ray-Ban Meta Smart Glasses.
Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg kick-started his company’s VR endeavors in 2014 when it acquired the startup Oculus for $2 billion. Since then, Zuckerberg has characterized VR and AR as central to his plans to develop the futuristic digital world known as the metaverse, which he has said represent the next major computing platform.
Wall Street has questioned Zuckerberg’s metaverse investment. Reality Labs has tallied an operating loss of more than $60 billion since 2020, as of Meta’s fourth-quarter earnings report.
Meta last week said it would invest between $60 billion and $65 billion in 2025 capital expenditures to expand its computing infrastructure related to artificial intelligence. Zuckerberg has previously said AI is core to the company’s metaverse efforts, including its Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. Meta develops that device with France-based EssilorLuxottica.
The social media company last year also unveiled its Orion prototype AR headset that is capable of overlaying digital objects on top of a person’s real field of view.
Meta released its latest VR headset, the $299 Quest 3S, during its September Connect event and pitched the device as a way for people to watch movies, play games and workout in VR.
Other tech companies are also investing in VR and AR.
Apple’sVision Pro headset went on sale in the U.S. in February 2024 with a starting price of $3,499, and in December, Google and Samsung said they were working on a VR and AR device dubbed Project Moohan that will be available to buy in 2025 for an undisclosed price.