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Tesla will “go ballistic” next year on the back of its autonomy efforts says Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who said the same thing last year about this year – and many years before.

Tesla held its Q4 and full year 2024 earnings today, missing expectations on revenue and earnings. The company had its first down sales year since 2011, despite a rising EV market.

The market initially responded poorly to the numbers, but recovered as Tesla guided a return to growth.

Part of that return to growth includes Musk’s prediction that Tesla’s autonomous offerings will drastically improve, leading to an “epic 2026 and a ridiculously good ’27 and ’28.” He said that Tesla is “really going to go ballistic next year, and really ballistic in ’27 and ’28.”

But these statements echo things that Musk has said before, even up until a few months ago.

Last year, in Tesla’s Q2 earnings call, Musk described no less than 6 ways that the company would change the world in 2025.

Those six ways were: Tesla Semi, a new “affordable EV,” the next-gen Roadster, unsupervised full self-driving, Robotaxi, and Optimus robot.

Those last three all fall under the umbrella of autonomous operation, which Musk has pivoted increasingly towards promising on short timelines (“next year”) and with ridiculous valuations (~$20-30 trillion market cap) in an attempt to pump the stock that the vast majority of his wealth is held in.

Those promises were supposed to come this year, in 2025, when they were promised last year, in 2024.

But today, during 2025, Musk seemed to move back that promise to next year, 2026.

It’s something that has happened many times before, as Musk has continually promised fully autonomous operation for several years now. Going all the way back to 2014, we’ve heard promises that Tesla’s cars would be able to drive themselves, even across country with no driver, as early as 2017. Many of these promises included the phrase “next year,” just as today’s did, despite Musk’s earliest timelines now being 8 years ago.

In today’s call, Musk spent a lot of time highlighting recent progress Tesla has made towards large-scale unsupervised FSD, by pointing out that Tesla’s vehicles are now able to operate themselves at low-speed on well-marked private property by driving themselves around a factory parking lot. It is, at least, an improvement from being unable to drive themselves through a one-way tunnel.

Musk also went on to say that fully autonomous robotaxis would be in operation within 5 months in some US cities, and in all US cities by the end of next year. Tesla will start off in Austin, two-and-a-half years after Cruise started operation there (and later ended it), and after Waymo has already started testing in the area.

He said that FSD would come later in Europe, mostly due to disparate regulatory regimes in the region, which he said need to be fixed (and yet, he is lobbying to make regulations even more disparate in Europe, through advocating for parties that want to break up the EU, like the neo-Nazi AfD party in Germany, and others).

On the back of these autonomy advancements, which are coming after other companies have already started doing the same thing, Musk said that Tesla has the potential to become “the most valuable company in the world” and “worth more than the next five companies combined.”

But, according to Musk, you shouldn’t be skeptical of his timeline. Despite the fact that he has continually been wrong, and said that it’s hard to predict the future (and yet he keeps doing so), he claimed today that “the only people who are skeptical are those who haven’t [tried FSD].” So, sound off in the comments if you’ve tried FSD and yet are skeptical of Tesla reaching full autonomy next year.


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Tesla Full Self-Driving hasn’t improved all year and Musk points to more wait

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Tesla Full Self-Driving hasn't improved all year and Musk points to more wait

Tesla’s ‘Supervised Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) in customer vehicles hasn’t improved all year, based on the best available data previously praised by CEO Elon Musk.

Now Musk points to having to wait until later this year, but wait for what?

Tesla’s last major FSD update, v13, was released in December 2024.

Musk had previously claimed that v13 would enable “a 5 to 6x increase in miles between disengagements compared to v12.5.”

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The automaker never released any disengagement data to prove any improvement. Therefore, we have had to rely on crowdsourced data. There is a particular dataset that Musk himself previously shared positively, suggesting that the limited dataset is somewhat reflective of what Tesla is seeing in its own data.

Based on this dataset, v13 on Tesla’s HW4 vehicles was a real improvement, but it only brought a 2x improvement in miles between critical disengagement – nowhere near the claim “5 to 6x” increase.

As we previously reported, HW3 vehicles are still stuck on v12, and Musk has admitted that the hardware will never support the promised unsupervised self-driving capability, with no plans to rectify the situation in sight.

Now, six months after Tesla released v13, the program has stagnated as the automaker shifted all its efforts to a “robotaxi” pilot program in Austin, Texas.

Tesla has released a new version, v13.2.9 (left), but it has been performing worse than the previous update (v13.2.8 – right) after over 5,000 miles of data:

The latest data on Tesla FSD v13.2.9 points to 371 miles between critical disengagements.

As we previously reported, the robotaxi pilot program in Austin is a moving of the goalpost for Tesla, which has been promising that all its customer vehicles built since 2016 would become capable of unsupervised self-driving with future software updates.

It operates only in a geo-fenced area of Austin, where Tesla is specifically training its neural nets to be optimized for the area. Furthermore, it is using “plenty of teleoperation” to support the fleet, something that can’t scale to customer vehicles.

The hope is that Tesla’s optimization and focus on this pilot project in Austin will ultimately result in Tesla improving FSD in customer vehicles.

Musk has now commented on this effort:

It’s a new version of software, but will merge to the main branch soon. We have a more advanced model in alpha stage that has ~4X the params, but still requires a lot of polishing. That’s probably ready for deploy in a few months.

Quickly after claiming a 4x increase in parameters, Musk said that this would be coming “later this year”:

~4.5X increase in params should be ready for wide release later this year. Super frugal use of memory bandwidth, caching exactly what is needed & squeezing microseconds out of everything are needed to maintain the frame rate. And the whole system needs to be retrained.

It’s worth noting that Musk’s timelines for FSD releases have historically been extremely late.

The better question is what this long-awaited update will bring to Tesla owners?

Electrek’s Take

The promised and paid-for unsupervised self-driving? No. The “unsupervised” self-driving that Tesla is launching as part of the pilot program in Austin is not transferable to the customer fleet. It is geofenced in a small area around Austin, Texas, and it relies on teleoperation, which doesn’t scale to millions of vehicles like Tesla promised.

It’s also important to note that it’s not the first time that Musk has promised a significant increase in parameters. The CEO said that FSD v12.5 on HW4 was a “5x increase in parameters” and that was quite disappointing.

FSD v12.5 on HW4 (left) only brought a 22% increase in miles between critical disengagement compared to v12.3 (right):

In fact, the miles between critical disengagements plummeted with other v12.5 point updates, and it ultimately ended at 184 miles between critical disengagements, significantly below v12.3:

Therefore, it’s hard to get too excited about a new “~4.5x increase in parameters” when that’s what happened the last time Musk called for it.

Additionally, at that time, Musk stated that HW4 could support an “8x increase in parameters,” and it was around this time that he began to express less confidence in his comments about HW3.

It took another 6 months before he finally admitted that HW3 would not support unsupervised self-driving, and Tesla basically stopped making any significant updates on the hardware since.

Tesla is also quickly approaching the limits of HW4 with recent updates.

I think it’s becoming clear that the robotaxi launch in Austin is just another distraction from the fact that Tesla can’t deliver on its promise of making millions of vehicles delivered since 2016 capable of “unsupervised self-driving.”

I’m sure that the effort is going to result in improvements in FSD in customer vehicles later this year, but it won’t be to the level needed to achieve unsupervised self-driving without teleoperation, which again is not scalable.

If Tesla can get closer to 1,000 miles between critical disengagements, it would be nice, but 99% of the value of FSD lies in level 4-5 unsupervised self-driving, and we won’t be even close to that. And that’s what people paid for.

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BP takeover speculation heats up as UAE oil giant ADNOC enters the fray for gas assets

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BP takeover speculation heats up as UAE oil giant ADNOC enters the fray for gas assets

BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

UAE oil giant ADNOC has joined the fray of firms said to be circling some of BP‘s highly prized assets, as takeover speculation for the embattled energy major kicks into overdrive.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Company is thought to be weighing up a move for some of the London-listed firm’s assets, should the oil major break up or seek to divest more units, Bloomberg reported Wednesday, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

ADNOC is reportedly most interested in BP’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) assets, although it is also said to have considered a full takeover of the company. It is understood by Bloomberg that any prospective deal would likely take place via ADNOC’s international unit, XRG.

Spokespeople at BP, ADNOC and XRG declined to comment on the speculation when contacted by CNBC.

A protracted period of underperformance relative to its industry peers has thrust BP into the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate. British rival Shell, as well as U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron, are among some of the names that have been touted as possible suitors.

Any potential deal between ADNOC and BP is seen as far from a foregone conclusion, but analysts point out that the two companies share a long-standing relationship across hydrocarbons and renewables over a range of geographies, most notably in Abu Dhabi and most recently in Egypt.

Former BP CEO Bernard Looney, who left the company after less than four years in the job in September 2023, sits on the XRG board alongside ADNOC CEO Sultan al-Jaber.

Maurizio Carulli, global energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said ADNOC’s purported interest in some of BP’s assets is a “significant” development — albeit one that is somewhat expected, given ADNOC is a growing, cash-rich business looking to expand further into gas.

“That said, it seems unlikely that Adnoc would consider a full bid for BP as a whole given the company would not be strategically interested in BP’s oil assets. A few other listed oil majors might, though,” Carulli told CNBC by email.

“BP’s discrete assets, both upstream and downstream, will no doubt capture large interest from a number of both energy and private equity players,” he added.

Strategic reset

Last month, BP reportedly attracted interest from a number of possible buyers for its Castrol lubricants business, a unit thought to be one of the “crown jewels” of its portfolio.

Energy companies including India’s Reliance Industries and Saudi Arabia’s oil behemoth Aramco, as well as private equity firms Apollo Global Management and Lone Star Funds, were all previously touted as suitors for BP’s Castrol unit, Bloomberg reported on May 28, citing people familiar with the matter.

Apollo Global Management and Lone Star declined to comment on the report. CNBC has also contacted Reliance Industries and Aramco.

BP’s future is bright — if it can get through the next 6 months, analyst says

BP is seeking to fend off a prospective takeover by restoring investor confidence. The company launched a fundamental strategic reset earlier in the year and, despite posting weaker-than-expected first-quarter profit, CEO Murray Auchincloss told CNBC in late April that the firm was “off to a great start” in delivering on its new direction.

Shares of BP have stabilized in recent weeks, following a sharp fall in early April, as trade war volatility rocked financial markets. The stock price is down more than 4% in the year to date.

Allen Good, director of equity research at Morningstar, said it is unlikely BP will be prepared to split with significant pieces of its upstream portfolio, given the firm’s recent green strategy U-turn to double down on hydrocarbons.

Cars are seen at ADNOC gas station in United Arab Emirates on November 26, 2023.

Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

As part of BP’s strategic reset, the company announced plans to increase annual oil and gas spending to investment to $10 billion through 2027, while slashing spending on renewables. It is also targeting $20 billion in divestments over the coming years.

“Activist pressure has been more on further cost and capital reductions, not necessarily core divestitures. Breaking up the company is unlikely to be the solution shareholders are looking for,” Allen told CNBC by email.

‘A global energy and chemicals leader’

For XRG, which ADNOC launched last year, reports of interest in some of BP’s assets come as the investment company seeks deals on gas and chemicals assets to help it reach an enterprise value of $80 billion.

“We are committed to delivering long-term value for our stakeholders and reinforcing Abu Dhabi and the UAE’s role as a global energy and chemicals leader,” ADNOC’s al-Jaber said at the time.

Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, chief executive officer of Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (ADNOC) and president of COP28, during the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference in Houston, Texas, US, on Tuesday, March 11, 2025.

Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said any potential transactions between ADNOC and BP were likely to be hard-driven, with each party striving to defend its own interests.

“BP is under pressure to deliver on its goal to reduce debt, through improved organic cash flow and asset disposals,” Mould told CNBC.

“ADNOC will be well aware of this, and how the clock may be ticking so far as BP management is concerned, and it will therefore look to drive a hard bargain in the process, should it indeed be interested in some of BP’s assets, as reports suggest,” he added.

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Chime prices IPO at $27 per share, valuing fintech company at $11.6 billion ahead of Nasdaq debut

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Chime prices IPO at  per share, valuing fintech company at .6 billion ahead of Nasdaq debut

Chime Visa Credit Card

Source: Chime

Chime priced its IPO at $27 per share on Wednesday, above the expected range, in an offering that values the provider of online banking services at $11.6 billion

The company raised roughly $700 million in the IPO, with another $165 million worth of shares being sold by existing investors. The stock is expected to begin trading Thursday under ticker symbol CHYM.

The offering comes after a years-long freeze in the fintech IPO pipeline, as rising interest rates and valuation resets kept many late-stage companies on the sidelines. The market has started to loosen. Trading platform eToro jumped 29% in its Nasdaq debut last month, and crypto company Circle popped after hitting the market last week.

Online lender Klarna, meanwhile, has delayed its IPO plans and last month reported steep quarterly losses.

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Chime’s decision to go public — even after a steep cut from its last private valuation of $25 billion — marks a major test of investor appetite for consumer-facing finance companies. SoftBank, Tiger Global, and Sequoia all invested in the 2021 round at Chime’s private market peak.

The company’s top institutional shareholders are DST Global and Crosslink Capital, which owned 17% and 9.5%, respectively, of shares before the offering.

Chime’s core business — offering no-fee banking services, debit cards, and early paycheck access — draws most of its revenue from interchange fees. The company competes in various areas with fintech incumbents PayPal, Square and SoFi.

Revenue in the latest quarter climbed 32% from a year earlier to $518.7 million. Net income narrowed to $12.9 million from $15.9 million a year ago.

Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase are leading the IPO.

WATCH: Chime files to go public

Chime files to go public on NASDAQ under CHYM

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