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The UK economy is forecast to improve more slowly than previously predicted after stagnant growth late last year.

The EY ITEM Club expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1% in 2025, down from a previous estimate of 1.5%.

The economic forecaster is the latest influential group to cut its predictions amid continued pressure on businesses, which face further tax and wage rises in April.

It represents another blow to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ hopes of rapidly growing the economy.

The forecasts also point to 0.8% growth across the economy last year, suggesting only a slight acceleration in economic growth.

It comes after a weaker second half of 2024, with a worse-than-expected 0.1% rise in GDP in November and a 0.1% monthly decline in October.

The economy had flatlined over the third quarter of the year.

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But the UK is expected to see stronger growth next year, with the forecasts indicating it could see a 1.6% rise in 2026.

Anna Anthony, EY UK regional managing partner, said: “Despite the subdued finish to 2024, there are signs that the UK economy could turn a corner and achieve stronger levels of growth this year.

“Following a prolonged period of financial uncertainty, we should start to see an improvement in consumer confidence as real wages continue to increase, with many households feeling less of a financial squeeze by the end of 2025.”

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She added: “The outlook for UK business is more of a mixed picture.

“While business investment is set to increase, tightening financial conditions and global trade uncertainty are expected to weigh on private sector confidence in the first half of this year.”

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Keir Starmer’s 1,000 jobs pledge could take 20 years, GB Energy boss admits

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Keir Starmer's 1,000 jobs pledge could take 20 years, GB Energy boss admits

The boss of GB Energy has told Sky News it could take 20 years to deliver a Labour government pledge of 1,000 jobs for Aberdeen.

Sir Keir Starmer promised voters his flagship green initiative, which will be headquartered in the northeast of Scotland, would cut consumer energy bills by as much as £300.

It is one of Labour’s five key missions for this parliament after a manifesto commitment to “save families hundreds of pounds on their bills, not just in the short term, but for good”.

In his first broadcast interview, Juergen Maier, appointed by Downing Street as GB Energy’s start-up chairman, suggested this was a “very long-term project” spanning decades and repeatedly refused to say when household prices would be slashed.

“I know that you are asking me for a date as to when I can bring that, but GB Energy has only just been brought into creation and we will bring energy bills down,” Mr Maier said.

The state-owned company will not supply power to homes but it will invest in new renewable projects while attempting to attract private investors.

Aberdeen's harbour
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Aberdeen’s harbour

Aberdeen HQ ‘nervous’

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Labour hopes GB Energy will help workers move from oil and gas and has pledged 1,000 jobs for Aberdeen, where the initiative will be based.

Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce told Sky News the estimated 50,000 local people currently employed in the industry are “nervous”.

Chief executive Russell Borthwick said: “I think the [GB Energy] ambition is good. It needs some quick wins.

“Right now, this city is nervous. We need to give the industry more confidence that things are going to start moving more quickly.

“What we do have is not a great deal of progress. We’ve had a lot of positive meetings with GB Energy. I think we are really looking over the next six months for that to be delivered on.”

BG Energy's Aberdeen HQ
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BG Energy’s Aberdeen HQ

1,000 jobs in 20 years? ‘Absolutely’

It comes after Energy Minister Michael Shanks MP recently said the UK government had “not moved away” from an ambition of creating “over 1,000 jobs”.

Sky News pushed Mr Maier for clarity on this pledge given the looming crisis in the North Sea industry.

He said: “Great British Energy itself is going to create over the next five years, 200 or 300 jobs in Aberdeen. That will be the size of our team. I have said in the very long term when we become a major energy champion it may be many more than that.”

Pressed to define “long term”, he replied: “Look, we grow these companies. Energy companies grow over 10 or 20 years, and we are going to be around in 20 years.”

He said “absolutely” when asked directly if it could take two decades to fulfil the commitment of 1,000 jobs.

‘Huge risk of not delivering’

Unions told Sky News there is a risk of GB Energy over-promising and under-delivering.

Unite’s Scottish Secretary Derek Thomson said: “If you look at how many jobs are going to go in the northeast, if GB energy does not pick up the pace and start to move workers in there and start to create proper green jobs, then I’m afraid we could be looking at a desolation of the northeast.”

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Prospect, which represents more than 22,000 workers across the energy industry, said the current vision seems risky.

Richard Hardy, Scotland secretary, said: “I don’t want to be accused of cynicism, but I do want to see a plan.

“If what happens is that it only creates 200 or 300 jobs, then I think most people would see that as being a failure. There is a huge risk for them in not actually delivering.

“They must understand the political risk they are taking in doing this. It has to be a success for them because otherwise it is going to be a stick to beat them with.”

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Barclays says IT glitch that locked people out of their accounts has been resolved

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Barclays says IT glitch that locked people out of their accounts has been resolved

Barclays says an IT glitch that left some customers locked out of their accounts has been resolved after the disruption entered a third day.

The bank said the “technical issue” has been fixed and delayed payments processed.

In a statement on Sunday, Barclays said: “We are working on bringing balances up to date for some of our customers and addressing any outstanding issues.

“We are very sorry for any disruption and will ensure that no impacted customer is left out of pocket.”

A closed Barclays branch in Swindon following the IT issues on 1 February 2025
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A closed Barclays branch in Swindon following the IT issues on 1 February 2025

The IT glitch is not believed to be related to a cyber attack or malicious activity.

The disruption started on Friday – on what was payday for many British workers and the deadline for self-assessment tax returns.

Barclays apologised to people who had been affected and promised no one would be left out of pocket.

It added that call centres would be open for longer this weekend and the bank will be proactively contacting customers who may be vulnerable.

However, the company’s handling of complaints provoked an angry reaction online.

Customers have posted on X that they were unable to buy shopping for themselves and their young children or pay their bills.

In response to one user who said her household “has no access to money”, the Barclays UK Help account asked: “Are there any friends or family who can offer support?”

When she said she didn’t and criticised the reply as “so triggering”, the bank’s X account posted links to the Trussell Trust, a charity that runs food banks, and Citizens Advice, which offers help for a range of problems.

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The beginning of the year is also a key time for people who file self-assessment tax returns.

In a statement, HMRC said it is “working closely” with Barclays to minimise any impact on those submitting their self-assessments.

An HMRC spokesperson said: “Our services are working as normal, so customers will still have been able to file their returns on time.

“Also, the issues will not result in late payment penalties as they don’t apply until 1 March.”

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How Donald Trump’s tariffs could impact consumers

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How Donald Trump's tariffs could impact consumers

Donald Trump has long threatened increasing tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China.

The second-time president argues higher levies will help reduce illegal migration and the smuggling of fentanyl to the US.

On Saturday, the president confirmed that he would subject Mexican and Canadian goods to the full 25% tariff – and Chinese imports to 10%.

However, Canadian energy, including oil, natural gas and electricity, will be taxed at a 10% rate. The levies will take effect on Tuesday.

Although the Trump administration says the changes will boost domestic production, there will likely be wide-ranging negative consequences for the US consumer.

Economists argue supply chains will be disrupted and businesses will suffer increased costs – leading to an overall rise in prices.

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Both Mexico and Canada rely heavily on their imports and exports, which make up around 70% of their Gross Domestic Products (GDPs), putting them at even greater risk from the new tariffs.

China only relies on trade for 37% of its economy, having made a concerted effort to ramp up domestic production, making it relatively less vulnerable.

Here we look at where US consumers will feel the biggest impact.

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Tariffs to focus on Mexico and Canada

Avocados – and other fruit and veg

The US imports between half and 60% of its fresh produce from Mexico – and 80% of its avocados, according to figures from the US Department of Agriculture.

Canada also supplies a lot of the US’s fruit and vegetables, which are mainly grown in greenhouses on the other side of the US border.

This means that increased tariffs will quickly be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

The US still grows a considerable amount of its own produce, however, so the changes could boost domestic production.

But economists warn that overreliance on domestic goods will see those suppliers increase their prices too.

Petrol and oil prices

Oil and gas prices are likely to be impacted – as Canada provides around 60% of US crude oil imports and Mexico roughly 10%.

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US received around 4.6 million barrels of oil a day from Canada last year – and 563,000 from Mexico.

Most US oil refineries are designed specifically to process Canadian products, which would make changing supply sources complex and costly.

There has been some speculation that Mr Trump may exempt oil from the new changes – but if he doesn’t, the US could see an increase in fuel prices of up to 50 cents (40p) a gallon, economists have predicted.

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Cars and vehicle parts

The US car industry is a delicate mix of foreign and domestic manufacturers.

The supply chain is so complex, car parts and half-finished vehicles can sometimes cross the US-Mexico border several times before they are ready for the showroom.

If this continues, the parts would be taxed every time they move countries, which would lead to an even bigger increase in prices.

To mitigate this, General Motors has said it will try to rush through Mexican and Canadian exports – while brainstorming on how to relocate manufacturing to the US.

Electronic goods

When Donald Trump imposed a 50% tariff on imported washing machines during his first term in 2018, prices suffered for years afterwards.

China produces a lot of the world’s consumer electronics – and smartphones and computers specifically – so the 10% tariff could have a similar effect on those devices.

The Biden administration tried to legislate to promote domestic production of semiconductors (microchips needed for all smart devices) – but for now, the US is still heavily reliant on China for its personal electronics.

This will mean an increase in prices for consumers unless tech companies can relocate their operations away from Beijing.

Boost for the steel industry

The sector that could feel the most benefit from the Trump tariffs is the steel and aluminium industry.

It has long been lobbying the government to put tariffs on foreign suppliers – claiming they are dominating the market and leaving US factories without enough business and at risk of closure.

Steel imports increasing in price would promote domestic production – and possibly save some of the plants.

But when Mr Trump increased steel tariffs during his first term, prices also increased – which business leaders said forced them to pass on costs and left them struggling to complete construction projects on budget.

Overall inflation

An increase in the prices of all these goods would inevitably lead to widespread overall inflation.

According to analysis by Capital Economics, the Canadian and Mexican tariffs would put inflation above 3% – which is much higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% – and the Chinese levies would see it rise even further.

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