All the polling moves that push Reform UK to the top for the first time this week are within the margin of error and the overall picture remains unchanged – with Britain in a new period of three party politics in the polls.
However, the symbolism of Reform UK topping the poll is likely to be seized on by MPs from all parties.
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One in five Tory voters at the last election would now vote for Reform.
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5:19
Is Reform UK winning the ‘bro vote’?
The Tories are likely to be the hardest hit by the poll, having been in third place since YouGov restarted polling after the general election.
The Sky News/YouGov poll also found Kemi Badenoch has slipped behind Nigel Farage when voters are asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the leaders.
Last month, Badenoch has a net favourability rating of -25, but that has now dropped to -29 this month.
This puts her below Farage, who had a net favourability rating of -32 last month, which has now risen to -27 this month.
Keir Starmer is less popular than both Farage and Badenoch, with his net favourability rating now at -36.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey is much more popular, with his net favourability rating now at -9 – although this is not directly translated across into voting intention.
These figures are likely to restart the debate in the Tory party about whether they should consider merging with Reform UK, something which Badenoch has repeatedly rejected.
A total of 43% of those polled who voted Tory in the last general election support a merger, compared with 31% against.
Reform UK voters are more likely to oppose, with 40% against and 31% for.
As Donald Trump kicks off his threatened trade war by slapping tariffs on both friends and foes alike, Number 10 is preparing for the moment he turns his attention to the UK.
The unpredictability of the returning president, emboldened by a second term, means the prime minister must plan for every possible scenario.
Under normal circumstances, the special relationship might be the basis for special treatment but the early signs suggest, maybe not.
It was never going to be an easy ride, with Sir Keir Starmer’s top team racking up years of insults against Trump when they were in opposition.
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0:50
Tariffs against Canada ‘will put US jobs at risk’
Amid all of this, the much-anticipated call between the two leaders seemed slow to take place, although it was cordial when POTUS finally picked up the phone last Sunday, with a trip to Washington to come “soon”.
It is against this slightly tense backdrop that the future of transatlantic trade will be decided, with Westminster braced for the impact of the president’s next move.
So, it’s unsurprising that as he waits, Sir Keir will spend the next few days resetting a different trading relationship – with Europe.
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2:46
Sky’s Ed Conway explains Donald Trump’s plan for tariffs
In this area, he is on slightly firmer ground, as the spectre of a global trade war makes European leaders want to huddle closer together to weather the storm.
And conversely, the Labour government’s track record works in their favour here, as they cash in their pro-EU credentials and wipe the slate clean after the bad-tempered Boris Johnson years.
It is still, however, an ambitious and risky endeavour to begin the delicate process of removing some of the most obstructive post-Brexit bureaucracy.
For minimal economic benefits on both sides, the UK must convince the Europeans that they are not letting Britain “have its cake and eat it”.
At the same time, Brexiteers back at home will cry betrayal at any hint that the UK is sneaking back into the bloc via the back door.
To make it even trickier, it must all be done with one eye on Washington, because while a united Europe may be necessary in the Trump era, the prime minister will not want to seem like he is picking sides so early on.
As with so many things in politics, it’s a delicate balancing act with the most serious of consequences, for a prime minister who is still to prove himself.
Scott Bessent, who has been in office for less than a week as US Treasury Secretary, will also take on the role of acting director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.