The symbolism was plain to see.

Five years on from Brexit, the British prime minister on Monday was brought back into the club for one night only, invited to an informal dinner with the EU’s 27 leaders to talk about resetting relations after a bumpy Brexit.

The invite was sent out weeks ago, with the intention on both sides to forge closer defence, security and trade ties.

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Britain is under new leadership with a Labour government that wanted no part of Brexit, while the European Union is perhaps now a bit more pragmatic as it seeks to renew a lapsed friendship with an old ally in a more hostile world.

The stage was set then for a rapprochement – instead the EU leaders spent the informal summit locked up in a room war gaming the threat of a US-EU trade war.

President Trump’s hostility to the EU was laid bare as he sounded off about the “atrocity” of the EU on trade and said tariffs were on their way, while with the UK, the US could probably sort it out.

The substance behind these positions is that the EU has a whopping trade deficit with the US – Trump hates that – while the UK does not.

But there is something else emerging here too: a Labour prime minister and Republican president that seem to have hit it off.

There was the dinner they had in September at Trump Towers in New York and the 45-minute phone call a week ago on Sunday which I’m told was light on policy and instead a very personal call between the two of them.

One insider told me they were “surprised” at how amenable Trump is towards Starmer. They may not be an obvious pairing for a bromance, but no matter – it all adds to the favourable backdrop of a president with links to Scotland, his fondness for the UK and love of the Royal Family.

But the big unknown is whether Starmer can remain close to both the EU and the US should relations between Washington and Brussels deteriorate. The prime minister was very clear on Monday that he’s unwilling to pick between the two sides.

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Exclusive: Reform UK tops landmark poll for first time

Some of it depends on how the EU handles this unpredictable president. For now, the bloc is treading carefully, with intense talks going on between the US and EU over trade – could the EU for example take more oil and gas from the US market to close that trade imbalance? – as individual European leaders hold the line.

In Brussels and London, operatives are watching how the threat of tariffs plays out in Mexico and Canada, where it seems like making concessions garners results.

As for London, there is quiet confidence that Trump won’t slap tariffs on the UK. “That’s not where he’s looking”, says one government insider.

But what Starmer can’t be sure of is whether the US president will also look the other way as the UK forges a closer trading relationship with China, while standing firm with Europe should relations between Washington and Brussels deteriorate.

Starmer and his team think it can manage relations with China, the US and the EU so that the UK comes out on top. But that could prove much easier said than done.

Reform have topped a Sky News/YouGov poll for the first time as the party continues to shake up British politics.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has edged in front on 25%, with Labour pushed into second on 24% and the Tories on 21%.

The YouGov poll, taken on Sunday and Monday, also puts the Lib Dems on 14% and Greens on 9%.

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All the polling moves that push Reform UK to the top for the first time this week are within the margin of error and the overall picture remains unchanged – with Britain in a new period of three party politics in the polls.

However, the symbolism of Reform UK topping the poll is likely to be seized on by MPs from all parties.

One in five Tory voters at the last election would now vote for Reform.

The Tories are likely to be the hardest hit by the poll, having been in third place since YouGov restarted polling after the general election.

The Sky News/YouGov poll also found Kemi Badenoch has slipped behind Nigel Farage when voters are asked whether they have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of the leaders.

Last month, Badenoch has a net favourability rating of -25, but that has now dropped to -29 this month.

This puts her below Farage, who had a net favourability rating of -32 last month, which has now risen to -27 this month.

Keir Starmer is less popular than both Farage and Badenoch, with his net favourability rating now at -36.

Lib Dem leader Ed Davey is much more popular, with his net favourability rating now at -9 – although this is not directly translated across into voting intention.

These figures are likely to restart the debate in the Tory party about whether they should consider merging with Reform UK, something which Badenoch has repeatedly rejected.

A total of 43% of those polled who voted Tory in the last general election support a merger, compared with 31% against.

Reform UK voters are more likely to oppose, with 40% against and 31% for.