PayPal reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results on Tuesday and issued guidance that also topped analysts’ expectations. The shares slid more than 9% in Tuesday morning trading.
Here’s how the company did compared with Wall Street estimates, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
Earnings per share: $1.19, adjusted vs. $1.12 expected
Revenue: $8.37 billion vs. $8.26 billion expected
For the first quarter, PayPal expects adjusted earnings per share of $1.15 to $1.17, which is higher than the average analyst estimate of $1.13, though adjusted net income fell 1.9% to $1.21 billion. Earnings for the year will come in at $4.95 to $5.10 a share, topping the $4.90 average estimate, according to LSEG.
PayPal also announced a new $15 billion share buyback program, and expects to make around $6 billion in repurchases in 2025.
Revenue increased about 4% in the quarter from $8.03 billion a year ago.
Total payment volume, an indication of how digital payments are faring in the broader economy, was just short of estimates, coming in at $437.8 billion for the fourth quarter, versus the $438.2 billion analysts projected.
Unbranded payment volume — or the transactions PayPal handles for external businesses rather than its own platform — declined again in the fourth quarter as the company continues to pursue a price-to-value strategy, falling to 2% from 29% a year earlier. Chief Financial Officer Jamie Miller said during the earnings call the company expects “similar dynamics the next few quarters” and that over 2025, they expect renegotiations with existing customers to be an approximately “five-point revenue growth headwind.”
While PayPal’s take rate slipped to 1.91% from 1.96% a year earlier, transaction margin, which is how the company gauges the profitability of its core business, rose to 47% from 45.8%. In 2024, transaction margin dollars grew 7% to $14.7 billion, bolstered by Braintree, a service Meta uses for credit-card processing.
The company said it anticipates growth of 4% to 5% in transaction margin dollars in 2025 to $15.2 billion to $15.4 billion
PayPal’s stock is up 43% in the past year, as of Monday’s close. PayPal CEO Alex Chriss, who joined the company in September 2023, is trying to revive growth at PayPal, which had been been mired in a deep slump due to increased competition and a declining take rate, or the percentage of revenue PayPal keeps from each transaction.
Chriss has focused on prioritizing profitable growth and better monetizing key acquisitions like Braintree and payments app Venmo. In an earnings call on Tuesday, the PayPal CEO said the company had reduced headcount by 10% in 2024 and had made deliberate investments in AI and automation, which he described as being “critical” to the firm’s future.
Venmo’s total payment volume rose 10% in the quarter from a year earlier. DoorDash, Starbucks and Ticketmaster are among businesses now accepting Venmo as one way that consumers can pay.
In the short term, Chriss has said the two primary monetization levers are Venmo’s debit card, which allows customers to spend with their balance both online and offline, and Pay With Venmo, which provides a seamless way for customers to pay online.Monthly active accounts for the debit card grew more than 30% in 2024, and Pay with Venmo monthly actives increased more than 20%.
The company added 8.8 million active accounts last year.
Chriss said during the call with investors that solutions like Buy Now, Pay Later had helped PayPal expand its share of wallet, with BNPL customers spending 30% more on average. In 2024, he said BNPL had driven $33 billion in total payment volume, growing 21% from the previous year.
One of Chriss’ strategies to address the deteriorating margin was to offer merchants increased value-added services, such as connecting data points at checkout to drive down the rate of cart abandonment. That product, dubbed Fastlane, launched in August, and is a one-click payment option for online sales that can go head-to-head with Apple Pay and Shop Pay by Shopify.
“Seventy-five percent of Fastlane consumers are new or dormant PayPal users,” Chriss said during the earnings call. “This means that Fastlane not only improves conversion for our merchants, but also introduces more shoppers to PayPal and enables us to re-engage inactive users.”
In 2024, branded checkout volume rose more than 6%, thanks in part to strength across large enterprise platforms.
The other big product launch in 2024 was PayPal Everywhere, which went live in early September. The initiative offers 5% cash back for using a PayPal debit card within the mobile app.
“The improvements we made to branded checkout, peer-to-peer, and Venmo, plus the progress we made on our price-to-value strategy, are beginning to show up in our results,” Chriss said in the earnings statement.
Ford’s F-150 Lightning is losing ground in the US with new electric pickups like the Tesla Cybertruck and Chevy Silverado EV now available. Although Ford plans to launch smaller, more affordable EVs, including an SUV and pickup, they won’t arrive for (at least) another two years. With new threats, including a wave of lower-cost EVs and Trump threatening to impose tariffs on imports from Mexico, will Ford’s aging lineup set it further behind?
Ford Lightning falls behind in aging EV lineup
It’s been almost three years since the first F-150 Lightning models rolled out of Ford’s Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn, Michigan.
Aside from the Rivian R1T, the Lightning was among the first electric pickups available in the US. Rivian delivered the first R1T models in October 2021. The first Lightning customers received their vehicles in May 2022.
Despite setting a new January EV sales record, Ford sold fewer Lightning models than last year. Last month, sales slipped 15.5% to just 1,907, compared to 2,258 in January 2024.
The Mustang Mach-E was the primary reason behind Ford’s higher EV sales last month. Ford sold 3,529 Mach-Es in January, up 172% from the 1,295 sold last year.
After falling behind GM in the US electric vehicle market last year, Ford launched significant incentives toward the end of the year to boost sales. In October, Ford introduced its “Power Promise” program, giving all EV buyers a free Level 2 home charger worth $2,000. It extended the promotion last month after sales jumped 16% in Q4.
According to Edmunds (viaBloomberg), Mach-E models sat on the lot for an average of over three months before the incentive, nearly 20% longer than the average EV.
New threats emerging
Ford’s aging Lightning and Mach-E are already falling behind new EV competitors like the Tesla Cybertruck and Honda Prologue.
According to Cox Automotive’s2024 EV sales report, Tesla sold 38,965 Cybertrucks in the US last year, beating out the Lightning at 33,510. Even the new electric Chevy Silverado is catching up.
After the lower-priced LT trim began arriving at dealerships in October, GM sold 2,176 Silverado EVs in the final three months of 2024, for a total of 7,428. Later this year, Ram will launch its first electric pickup, the Ram 1500 REV.
Ford is betting on a new low-cost EV platform as it looks to keep pace with global leaders like Tesla and BYD. The new platform, under development by a team of former Tesla, Lucid, Rivian, and Apple execs in California, will underpin a series of smaller, more affordable EVs.
The first models are expected to be a smaller electric crossover SUV and pickup, starting at under $30,000. However, the new EVs are not expected to arrive until at least 2027.
By then, Ford will face stiff competition with Rivian launching its smaller R2, Volkswagen’s Scout brand arriving, etc.
With Trump threatening a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico, where the Mustang Mach-E is built, Ford could face more headwinds this year.
Electrek’s Take
Ford has already pushed back several significant electric vehicle models and other projects. Last year, it dropped plans to build a three-row electric SUV, which CEO Jim Farley once described as a “personal bullet train.”
The larger SUV was expected to launch this year, but instead, rivals like Hyundai, Kia, Lucid, and Volvo are taking advantage with new three-row electric SUVs (IONIQ 9, EV90, Gravity, and EX90) arriving in the US this year.
After delivering the first models last March, Honda’s Prologue already outsold the Ford Mustang Mach-E last month.
Ford’s Model e electric vehicle unit lost around $5 billion last year and is expected to continue racking up the losses in 2025. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas forecasts similar losses at around $4.8 million this year.
We will learn more tomorrow when Ford reports its fourth-quarter earnings. Check back for a breakdown of the report.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
There finally appears to be some Tesla shareholder momentum to fire Elon Musk from the company after years of concerns being ignored by the board and most shareholders.
However, probably nothing will happen as long as the stock (TSLA) is up.
For years, we have expressed concerns about Elon Musk steering Tesla away from its mission to accelerate the world’s transition to sustainable transport and energy.
It has intensified over the last year when Musk threatened Tesla shareholders to breach his fiduciary duties, fired Tesla’s entire charging team in a kneejerk reaction, dove headfirst into a worrying social media addiction, shared countless misinformation on social media, and financed politicians who have directly attacked Tesla and whose policies go directly against Tesla’s mission.
Most of these would be firable offenses at most companies, but we also reported for years that Tesla has massive governance issues with the board basically being completely under Musk’s control despite him owning just 13% of the company.
This leaves things in the hands of shareholders, who are limited to voting once a year. During Tesla’s shareholders meeting in June 2024, they made it clear that they are still for Musk, with most of them voting in line with what the board (aka him) recommended.
Since the inauguration and Musk’s salutes, the blowback, and his response to the blowback, there seems to be more traction amongst Tesla shareholders to remove.
Currently, the most popular post on the Tesla Investor Club on Reddit, one of the biggest Tesla shareholder communities, is about removing Musk as CEO of Tesla, and there have been a few of these types of posts getting traction over the last few weeks.
The post focused on Tesla’s lack of new models other than the Cybertruck in the last 5 years and the lack of growth in delivery volumes despite the rest of the EV market growing.
It also makes the argument that Musk is not following his own guiding principles when it comes to work dedication:
Assuming a few things…
Musk is good at keeping organizations focused on long term hard to reach goals
Musk is good at managing engineering teams
Taking Musk’s own words as truth: management and engineers co-locating with production and “in person” at the office interactions are net positives.
Musk is not doing #3 and thus is no longer performing #1 and #2 at Tesla for the mission. Additionally, with his own logic, he is now in the group of employees that were let go (#4).
This is not a bad argument considering that, in addition to virtually leading six companies and working out of the White House for his new DOGE government department, he was caught literally tweeting about non-Tesla stuff in the middle of Tesla’s earnings call last week.
All that while, he rages against employees who work from home because he believes it is less productive.
While many Tesla shareholders agreed with the post, the main objection was that “the stock is up, why mess with something that works?”
This is indeed a problem for Tesla fans who want to see Musk go. With the board not doing anything, it would come down to shareholders voting the board out and forcing a confidence vote on Musk.
Shareholders are afraid that pushing Musk out would result in him selling his stock and triggering a big correction in Tesla’s stock.
Considering Tesla is currently trading at an insane price-to-earnings ratio of 200 and closer to 400 if you remove ZEV credits and the Bitcoin gain, would that be such a bad thing if it meant realigning with the mission?
Electrek’s Take
Obviously, I don’t think we would see that happen if there were a confidence vote tomorrow. I think the stock would need to come down to reality to motivate shareholders to take action.
Personally, I think being scared of a selloff because of Musk leaving is shortsighted. Tesla’s fundamentals are looking worse by the day, and this quarter should be the worst in years.
If Tesla stock doesn’t crash this quarter, Tesla will likely be trading at a 500+ P/E after reporting Q1 2025 earnings. The last time Tesla traded at these levels, Musk warned Tesla employees that the stock would get crushed “like a soufflé being smashed by a sledgehammer” if it didn’t show profit growth.
A few years later, Tesla is in an even worse situation, considering profits from its main business, automotive, are actually crashing, while profits from self-driving cars and robots are realistically still years away.
It’s true that removing Musk would likely result in a short-term stock crash, but I think it would be good for Tesla long-term.
First, Musk is undoubtedly negatively affecting Tesla’s sales. Removing him would likely give Tesla some breathing room when it comes to demand.
Secondly, Musk has created a huge liability for Tesla by consistently promising self-driving capability on all cars produced since 2016. This needs to be addressed and fixed, and Musk is clearly not the person to do this.
Tesla needs leadership to realign the company with its mission and derisk the self-driving effort. I think there’s room to still aim for Musk’s grand vision for Tesla, but without consistently lying and overpromising.
Call me crazy, but I think the company would fair better with a competent full-time CEO instead of an egomaniac wannabe oligarch who consistently lies to shareholders, engages in resource tunneling with his private competing company, and is deeply lost in one of the worst cases of social media addiction that I’ve ever seen.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links.More.
Last month, Tesla unveiled the new Model Y in the United States, featuring an all-new light bar design, a redesigned rear-end, and a refreshed interior. It’s currently available as a “launch series” model, starting at $59,990 – with deliveries beginning in March.
The new Model Y is currently in 19 Tesla showrooms across North America, 17 in the United States and 2 in Canada. I took the opportunity to head to the one in New York’s Meatpacking District to get some up close photos, as well as share some thoughts.
Design impressions
When the new Model Y was unveiled in China at the start of the year, I wasn’t a huge fan. I was glad that Tesla came up with a unique design language for Model Y, rather than just creating a taller Model 3 once again, but I still wasn’t a fan. The new design felt super busy.
However, as time passed, it’s certainly grown on me. Seeing it in person cemented the fact that this is actually a great design, at least in my book. Could there be some improvements? Sure. Overall though, I welcome all of the improvements and I’m more than happy about the new design.
New Model Y upgrades
The main improvements with the new Model Y include two new light bars, one on the front and one on the rear. Unlike the Cybertruck, the front light bar on the New Model Y isn’t continuous, and instead features a split design. However, that’s for good reason.
On Model Y, the primary headlights are part of the light bar (pieces to the left and right), which isn’t the case on the Cybertruck. The light bar on the Cybertruck is mostly aesthetic, with the actual headlights being near the bumper. Some may think the splits in the front light bar are a design downgrade, but it’s certainly a lot more functional.
Additionally, you have a new rear light-bar that reflects downwards on the road, and gets very bright at night. I didn’t get a photo of this unfortunately, since the showroom is very well lit, but you can see the effect for yourself in videos. It can be pretty cool.
Other than that, the new Model Y has many of the same upgrades from last years refreshed Model 3. You have the ambient LED lighting on the interior, the new dual-pane glass for quieter interiors, new materials on the interior, as well as a display in the back seat for passengers to interact with.
New Model Y also has a front-bumper camera, as well as powered seats in the rear, allowing for customers to fold them down with just the press of a button.
Final thoughts
It’s a nice refresh. For now, Tesla only sells the new Model Y as a “launch series” model, coming in at $59,990 for the Long Range AWD configuration. At this price, you get Full Self-Driving included, the acceleration boost, and the tow package. Launch series models also have a special badge on the rear, alongside a puddle light, a more premium interior, and special “launch” badging around the vehicle.
There’s no word on when RWD or Performance models will be available, but Tesla still sells the old Model Y if you’d like to get one of those trims. There’s some great deals on existing inventory as well.
Gallery
Last but not least, here’s all of the photos I took of the new Model Y! The showroom model was Ultra Red, which is personally one of my favorite colors for this new design. It also comes in Stealth Gray, Pearl White Multi-Coat, and Quicksilver.