Let’s start with the simple bit: interest rates have been cut – down by another quarter percentage point to 4.5%. But what happens next?

Not long ago, the answer was quite simple: the Bank of England would carry on cutting borrowing costs, one quarter point cut every three months, until they reached, say, 3.5%.

That, at least, was the expectation this time last year.

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But things have become more complex, more unpredictable in recent months.

Instead there are two paths ahead of us. One of them, let’s call it the high road, sees those borrowing costs being cut only gradually, down to 4% in a couple of years’ time.

Down the other road, the low road, the outlook is quite different: rates will be cut faster and more. They go down below 4%, perhaps as low as 3.5%, perhaps even lower.

The funny thing about today’s splurge of information and forecasts from the Bank of England is that it’s not entirely clear whether we’re on the high road or the low road anymore.

Now, strictly speaking, the forecasts and fan charts produced by the Bank’s staff tend towards the former, more conservative view – the two cuts.

But then look at the voting patterns on the monetary policy committee (MPC), where two members, Swati Dhingra and Catherine Mann just voted for a full half percentage point cut, and you’re left with a different impression. That rates will go lower, and quickly.

And in truth, that’s what often happens when the economy is weakening.

When gross domestic product, the best measure of economic output, is flatlining or shrinking, when inflation is low (especially when you look beyond the temporary bump caused by energy prices) – that’s usually precisely the time the Bank slashes rates with abandon.

And that’s precisely the situation the UK finds itself in at the moment.

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But the problem is that a few things have complicated matters.

One is that the government decided to splurge more money in last October’s budget. That extra money sloshing around in the economy makes the Bank somewhat less willing to cut rates.

Another is that although the economy is weak, inflation is still high – indeed, the Bank actually raised its forecast for the consumer price index in today’s forecasts. Another is that the world economy has become a significantly more unstable place in recent months.

Germany is in recession. The US, under Donald Trump, is threatening tariffs on its nearest allies.

It’s not altogether clear whether the response to all this is lower interest rates.

Added to this, despite the chancellor’s best efforts, there is little evidence that her pro-growth policies are boosting economic growth – at least according to the Bank’s own forecasts.

These are tricky waters to navigate.

All of which helps explains why it’s no longer quite as clear as it once was what happens next.

My suspicion is that the Bank will end up cutting rates, probably more than those two cuts baked into its forecasts. But such forecasts are even more fraught than usual.

The government has been accused of “ignoring” the voices of people who lost family in the Grenfell Tower tragedy in its decision to demolish the building.

Grenfell United, which represents some bereaved and survivors, criticised the government’s conduct as “disgraceful and unforgiveable”.

The news was announced in a meeting attended by deputy prime minister Angela Rayner on Wednesday night.

Grenfell United said: “Angela Rayner could not give a reason for her decision to demolish the tower.

“She refused to confirm how many bereaved and survivors had been spoken to in the recent, short four-week consultation.

“But judging from the room alone – the vast majority of whom were bereaved – no one supported her decision. But she claims her decision is based on our views.”

“(The) meeting showed just how upset bereaved and survivors are about not having their views heard or considered in this decision.

“Ignoring the voices of bereaved on the future of our loved ones’ gravesite is disgraceful and unforgiveable.”

The government said the decision is a “deeply personal matter” for people affected by the tragedy and that Ms Rayner is “committed to keeping their voice at the heart of this”.

It has been almost eight years since 72 people died in the Grenfell Tower disaster, the UK’s deadliest residential fire since the Second World War.

There have been discussions over the years about how best to commemorate the tragedy for the decades to come.

Engineering experts have said that while the tower remains stable, and it is safe for people to live, work and study nearby, its condition will worsen over time and there is no realistic prospect of bringing it back into use.

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Grenfell Next of Kin, which represents some of the bereaved families, described the move to demolish the building as a “deeply sensitive decision… after a thorough engagement process in person” following an “uncomfortable conversation with uncomfortable truths”.

In a statement on X the group said: “The lack of closure, the continuous discussions and consultations, the retraumatisation of a divisive and painful debate brings nothing to the table except pain and further division.

“We want a discussion about what will go in the Tower’s place so it can be seen and remembered forever. We need to reimagine a future and rebuild our broken shattered lives and our families.”

A spokesperson for the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government said: “The priority for the deputy prime minister is to meet with and write to the bereaved, survivors and the immediate community to let them know her decision on the future of the Grenfell Tower.

“This is a deeply personal matter for all those affected, and the deputy prime minister is committed to keeping their voice at the heart of this.”

In September last year, the public inquiry into Grenfell found “systematic dishonesty” contributed to the horrific fire.

Inquiry chairman Sir Martin Moore-Bick said the “simple truth” was all the deaths were avoidable and that those who lived in the tower were “badly failed” by authorities “in most cases through incompetence but, in some cases, through dishonesty and greed”.

The report laid bare years of missed opportunities to prevent the catastrophe and how those responsible for fire safety were at risk of being compromised by commercial interests.

The Metropolitan Police said last year decisions on criminal charges for the blaze are not expected until the end of 2026.

Liam Payne’s girlfriend has said his death was a “tragic accident” and he was in “such a good headspace” when she left him in Argentina.

Kate Cassidy was with Payne in Buenos Aires but flew back to the US days before the One Direction star was killed in a fall from a hotel balcony.

She told The Sun: “Love is so optimistic, and you just hope that everything will work out at the end.

“Obviously if I knew, if I could see into the future, I would never have left Argentina.”

The American influencer said she had to get back to look after the couple’s dog, Nala.

“I had a responsibility, we had a responsibility. We had our dog and obviously I never, ever thought this event would occur,” she said.

Cassidy added: “It was a tragic accident and no, I never did think [he might die young]. But, you know, we did have our own separate lives – this wasn’t the first time we have travelled separately.

“I just never thought this would have happened, that it would turn out the way it did.”

Payne died aged 31 on 16 October from multiple injuries after falling from the third floor of a hotel in the Argentine capital.

Three people have been charged with manslaughter over his death, and two with supplying cocaine.

Cassidy, 25, said she thinks about Payne “every second of every day” and that she’d had a “childhood crush” on him since she was 10.

The pair got together in 2022 and she told The Sun it still doesn’t seem “fully real for me that he’s not here”.

“From the moment I met Liam, I genuinely believed we were soulmates,” said Cassidy.

“He was the most humble, charming, normal person you could ever hope to come across, and genuinely one of the best people I’ve ever met in my life.”

She said the Wolverhampton-born singer “was in such a good headspace” when she left Argentina.

“We were in such a great place, just full of love; he was so happy and positive. And I just can’t even believe the way things truly ended,” she said.

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Cassidy said she was glad she didn’t discover he’d died via social media, revealing one of Payne’s friends had called her to break the news.

“That moment, it’s like blank; it’s blacked out in my head,” she added.

“I didn’t believe it at first. I thought it was just a rumour. Or something that somebody made up just to get views.”

Payne’s funeral took place in November in Buckinghamshire, with his former bandmates and ex-partner Cheryl among the mourners.