CEO of Meta and Facebook Mark Zuckerberg, Lauren Sanchez, Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, Google CEO Sundar Pichai and Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk attend the inauguration ceremony before Donald Trump is sworn in as the 47th US President in the US Capitol Rotunda in Washington, DC, on Jan. 20, 2025.
Saul Loeb | Via Reuters
The strengthening dollar is posing challenges for the biggest U.S. tech companies, which have become increasingly reliant on overseas revenue. With other currencies weakening, money made elsewhere is worth less when converted into dollars.
Amazon should suffer less than its megacap peers as the e-commerce giant generates a higher percentage of sales in the U.S. However, in its fourth-quarter earnings report on Thursday, Amazon said foreign exchange rates are to blame for the company’s weaker-than-expected first-quarter forecast and the possibility of its slowest revenue growth on record.
Revenue in the current quarter will land between $151 billion and $155.5 billion, suggesting annual growth of just 5% to 9%. Amazon’s slowest quarter for growth came in mid-2022, when revenue increased by 7.2%.
“This guidance anticipates an unusually large, unfavorable impact of approximately $2.1 billion, or 150 basis points, from foreign exchange rates,” Amazon said in the earnings release.
On its earnings call that followed, Amazon said it saw $700 million “more of foreign exchange headwind than we anticipated” in the fourth quarter. During the period, international revenue totaled $43.4 billion, or 23% of overall sales.
At Apple, roughly 58% of revenue came from overseas in the latest period. For Meta, it was 55%, Alphabet reported about 52%, Microsoft slightly under 50% and Tesla just over 50% for all of 2024.
The U.S. dollar index — which measures the greenback against a basket of rivals — hit its highest level in more than two years last month, ahead of President Donald Trump’s inauguration. The dollar climbed steadily from late November through mid-January and has since fallen slightly.
The dollar may be particularly volatile in the coming weeks and months due to uncertainties surrounding Trump’s tariff policies and the threat of a trade war, most notably China, along with a lack of clarity about U.S. foreign policy, given comments Trump has made about potentially trying to take over Greenland and Gaza.
Here’s what other companies had to say on the topic of foreign exchange in issuing their financial results.
Microsoft CFO Amy Hood said foreign exchange did “not have a significant impact on our results and was roughly in line with expectation,” though for the current quarter it would bring down revenue growth by “more than 1 point.”
Susan Li, Meta’s finance chief, said the company expects “a three-point headwind in Q1” after foreign exchange “approximately neutral to revenue in Q4, just with the dollar strengthening, in particular against the euro.”
Alphabet CFO Anat Ashkenazi said investors can “expect a larger headwind to our revenues from the strengthening of the U.S. dollar relative to key currencies in Q1 versus Q4 2024.”
Apple finance chief Kevan Parekh warned last week that, “As the dollar strengthens significantly, we expect foreign exchange to be a headwind and to have a negative impact on revenue of about 2.5 percentage points on a year-over-year basis.”
The rise of the dollar will lead investors to pay close attention to job numbers out on Friday. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its nonfarm payrolls count for January, it’s projected to show growth of 169,000, down from 256,000 in December, but nearly in line with the past three-month average. The unemployment rate is projected to stay at 4.1%, according to the Dow Jones consensus for the report.
After that, the the tech industry will wait to see what Nvidia has to say about foreign exchange when the chipmaker reports earnings later in February. In the period ending in October, Nvidia generated about 58% of its revenue from outside the U.S.
Global investors are bracing for a battle between long and short-term wins amid a dramatic sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks.
AI darling Nvidia buoyed an otherwise deflated market when it reported strong earnings after the bell on Wednesday, sending its own stock soaring and carrying related names alongside it. However, the rally quickly reversed on Thursday with Nvidia ultimately ending the trading session 3% lower.
While the U.S. chipmaker’s earnings initially appeared strong enough to quell concerns over an AI bubble, economic speculation put global investors back on the defensive as hopes dimmed of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The U.K.’s hotly anticipated Autumn Budget is also expected next week.
“I think the market is quite confused as to why this is happening,” Ozan Ozkural, founding managing partner at Tanto Capital Partners, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
Market moves this year have been driven by sentiment, momentum, AI and innovation, “with sprinkles of geopolitical risk,” he said. “Although we haven’t got a specific reason why there has been a sell-off on the back of the strong Nvidia results, to me it’s not that surprising, because [it’s] only a matter of time until sentiment just shifts, because we just live in a much more uncertain world.”
There also doesn’t need to be a catalyst, he added. However, the “most dangerous place we can be at” is a sustained sell-off, even if it’s a slow burn, Ozkural warning, noting that this could lead portfolio managers to lock in gains and cash out.
Asset managers are driven by compensation cycles which is why they don’t like to hedge their bets, he said. “No one cares about the long term. Everyone is dead in the long term. No one even cares about the medium term. It’s all about short term cycles,” he said.
“But the reality is, it’s year end, people need to get paid their bonuses, and it doesn’t pay to be bearish unless we see a sustained level of a sell-off.”
Investors with cash in an AI ETF or index may be cashing out due to a mixture of year-end risk management and continued concerns over an AI bubble. Those who may have made a lot of money on the back of the AI trade will probably want to step back and sell, said Stephen Yiu, investment chief at Blue Whale Growth Fund, which has a position in Nvidia.
However, for Julius Bendikas, European head of macro and dynamic asset allocation at Mercer, “it’s the battle between the solid fundamentals and questions being raised about multiples and maybe positioning getting a touch stretched.”
Despite solid fundamentals and earnings exceeding expectations, Bendikas told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” that investors are now starting to question whether the price is right and have started to sell as a result.
On technicals, “arguably, a lot of people have rushed into equities,” he said, noting that a recent Bank of America survey found cash levels are low. “So people have been quite long equities, maybe too long equities. And I think what we’ve seen yesterday is the valuations and technicals [narrative] overpowering the fundamental narrative, which came in quite strong post the Nvidia earnings overnight, a day ago.”
Nick Patience, AI lead at The Futurum Group, added: “Investors are also concerned about the circular nature of deals between Nvidia and other ecosystem players, questioning whether massive capital expenditures from hyperscaler customers represent sustainable demand.”
Fed rate cut
The moves may also reflect economic pressure. “The [Thursday] afternoon decline coincided with some negative macroeconomic signals in the form of the delayed September jobs report released in the morning that showed the US economy added 119,000 jobs – more than the expected 50,000 – but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021,” Patience said.
The last bit of big news the market is expecting is the Fed’s December rate decision; investors had anticipated a cut but are now split on whether it will happen.
The central bank opting to not cut rates is “not an issue,” Yiu said, but could lead investors who had expected it to cut, to pause and recalibrate ahead of next year.
“I think people just want to probably lock in and derisk, and take a break from [President Donald] Trump as well, who knows what Trump is going to next,” he added.
Amid the hype, it’s difficult to work out the AI winners and losers, Yiu said, but he expects a differentiation between the companies investing in AI and those on the receiving end of that cash, which he called AI infrastructure. As the market shakes out, Yiu is placing his bets on the latter.
The entrance to a Foxconn construction site in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, in May 2019.
Katie Tarasov | CNBC
Foxconn showcased its push into artificial intelligence at its annual ‘Hon Hai Tech Day’ in Taiwan on Friday, underscoring the world’s largest contract manufacturer’s efforts to evolve beyond its role as the biggest assembler of Apple’s iPhones.
The company, officially known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., has also become a major player in the AI hardware space, with its event taking place the same day it announced a partnership with ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, in a video statement streamed at the event, said that the two firms would “share insight into emerging hardware needs across the AI industry.”
He added that Foxconn would use those insights to design and prototype new equipment that could be manufactured in the United States.
The partnership will center on Foxconn’s server business, which earlier this year became its largest revenue driver and helped drive record profit in the September quarter.
Describing Foxconn and OpenAI as “natural partners,” Kirk Yang, an adjunct finance professor at National Taiwan University, told CNBC, “OpenAI needs strong partners, not only to manufacture products, but to quickly introduce all the products to the market.”
“So I think it makes perfect sense for OpenAI to work with Foxconn. And Foxconn is probably the strongest partner that open AI can find,” he added.
Foxconn also announced a partnership with Intrinsic, a unit of Alphabet to build so-called “artificial intelligence factories.”
The Taiwanese manufacturer highlighted deeper work with Nvidia as well, showcasing its compute trays for the chip designer’s cutting-edge Blackwell chips.
Speaking at the Friday event, Alexis Bjorlin, vice president and general manager of Nvidia’s DGX Cloud unit, said the partners would work on deploying advanced AI infrastructure much faster to meet customer demand.
Despite Nvidia’s results showing that demand for AI hardware remains strong, concerns persist in the market about a potential AI bubble and the sustainability of heavy AI spending.
Speaking to CNBC’s Emily Chan on the sidelines of Hon Hai Tech Day, Foxconn Chairman Young Liu expressed confidence that the company would be protected from a potential AI bubble.
“No matter what [AI] models or [AI] model players will win, they all need hardware, and no matter what GPU player will win, they all need system and component suppliers to support them,” he said.
The logo of Japanese company SoftBank Group is seen outside the company’s headquarters in Tokyo on January 22, 2025.
Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty Images
A sector-wide pullback hit Asian chip stocks Friday, led by a steep decline in SoftBank, after Nvidia‘s sharp drop overnight defied its stronger-than-expected earnings and bullish outlook.
SoftBank plunged more than 10% in Tokyo. The Japanese tech conglomerate recently offloaded its Nvidia shares but still controls British semiconductor company Arm, which supplies Nvidia with chip architecture and designs.
SoftBank is also involved in a number of AI ventures that use Nvidia’s technology, including the $500 billion Stargate project for data centers in the U.S.
South Korea’s SK Hynix fell nearly 10%. The memory chip maker is Nvidia’s top supplier of high-bandwidth memory used in AI applications. Samsung Electronics, a rival that also supplies Nvidia with memory, fell over 5%.
Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, which manufactures server racks designed for AI workloads, dipped 4%.
The retreat in major Asian semiconductor giants comes after Nvidia fell over 3% in the U.S. on Thursday, despite beating Wall Street expectations in its third-quarter earnings the night before.
The company also provided stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales guidance, which analysts said could lift earnings expectations across the sector.
However, smaller chip players in Asia were not spared either.
In Tokyo, Renesas Electronics, a key Nvidia supplier, fell 2.3%. Tokyo Electron, which provides essential chipmaking equipment to foundries that manufacture Nvidia’s chips, was down 5.32%.
Another Japanese chip equipment maker, Lasertec, was down over 3.5%.