Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs target a deeper issue – but risk job losses and higher prices
Few materials matter quite as much as steel and aluminium.
Steel, an alloy of iron and carbon, is the main metallic ingredient in the structures we live in and the bridges we build. If it’s not made of steel it’s made with steel.
Aluminium, on the other hand, is a wonder material we use with wild abandon these days. A light metal we use in planes and trains, in the bodies of electric vehicles and in those high voltage power lines we’ll need so many of to provide electricity in the coming years.
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Prices to rise for planes, trains and automobiles
All of which is to say these metals are the bedrock for much of the world around us. And like most developed economies, the US is far from independent when it comes to these materials. The degree of dependence on other countries varies between them.
According to the US Geological Survey, America’s “net import reliance ratio” for aluminium is close to 50%, implying it is deeply dependent on imports to satisfy demand among its companies. The degree of dependence is considerably lower for steel – only a little over 10%.
At least part of the idea behind tariffs is to bring some production back to the US, but imposing them will have consequences.
Molten aluminium. Pic: Reuters
What kinds of consequences? Well, at its simplest, tariffs push up prices. This is, when you think about it, blindingly obvious. A tariff is a tax on a good entering the country. So if aluminium and steel are going up in price then that means, all else equal, that the cost of making everything from aircraft wings to steel rivets also goes up. That in turn means consumers end up paying the price – and if a company can’t make ends meet in the face of these tariffs, it means job losses – possibly within the very industrial sectors the president wants to protect.
Donald Trump stands on stage with steelworkers as he speaks at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania during the US election. Pic: AP
So says the economic theory. But in practice, economics isn’t everything. There are countless examples throughout history of countries defying economic logic in search of other goals. Perhaps they want to improve their national self-reliance in a given product; perhaps they want to ensure certain jobs in cherished areas or industries are protected. But nothing comes for free, and even if Donald Trump‘s tariffs succeed in persuading domestic producers to smelt more aluminium or steel, such things don’t happen overnight. In the short run, it’s hard to see how these tariffs wouldn’t be significantly inflationary.
Donald Trump on Air Force One: Reuters
There’s a deeper issue here, which comes back (as so many of Mr Trump’s economic measures do) to China. Both the steel and aluminium markets have faced enormous influxes of cheap Chinese metals in recent years – to the extent that in recent months those Chinese imports have actually been cheaper than the cost of production in Europe.
To some extent, that’s a consequence of high European energy costs, but it’s partly down to the fact that China subsidises its producers more than most other countries around the world. Indeed, of all the products in the world, few have had as many cases lodged at the World Trade Organisation as steel.
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Donald Trump shakes hands with China’s President Xi Jinping in 2019 – as in his first term, many of his policies focus on China. Pic: AP
But while it’s worth being aware of these dynamics, which are pushing cheap steel into many markets, it’s also worth noting that the US actually imports far less from China than you might have thought. The vast majority of American aluminium imports, for instance, come from Canada rather than China. Any tariffs on the metal would further undermine the economic relationship between these parts of North America.
Much, of course, now depends on the structure and detail of these tariffs – and the extent to which they’re actually implemented. As with his threatened tariffs on Canada and Mexico, these ones raise as many questions as they answer. That is likely to be the way of things for much of this presidential term.
Four people have been arrested by police investigating cyber attacks targeting M&S, Co-op and Harrods.
A 20-year-old woman and two males, both aged 19, and a male aged 17, were detained in London and the West Midlands this morning as part of a National Crime Agency (NCA) operation.
They were arrested at their homes on suspicion of Computer Misuse Act offences, blackmail, money laundering and participating in the activities of an organised crime group.
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Electronic devices were seized from the suspects and are currently being analysed by forensic experts.
M&S halted online orders, and shelves were empty in shops after the cyber attack on the retailer earlier this year.
The initial hack into the retailer’s systems took place in April through “sophisticated impersonation” involving a third party.
Disruption is expected to continue at the retailer until the end of this month.
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Mickey Carroll in May answered why M&S cyber attack was so bad.
The Co-op and Harrods were also subsequently targeted by hackers.
Paul Foster, head of the NCA’s National cybercrime unit described the arrests as a “significant step” in their investigation, which remains “one of the Agency’s highest priorities”.
He added: “…our work continues, alongside partners in the UK and overseas, to ensure those responsible are identified and brought to justice.”
The National Crime Agency is keen to “signal” to “future victims” the “importance of seeking support and engaging with law enforcement”, stating that “the NCA and policing are here to help”.
The NCA has also thanked M&S, Co-op and Harrods for their support in their investigations.
The arrests, which took place early on Thursday morning, were supported by officers from the West Midlands Regional Organised Crime Unit and the East Midlands Special Operations Unit.
Earlier this week, the chairman of M&S told MPs that the hack had been “traumatic” and like an “out-of-body experience”.
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Archie Norman, however, refused to be drawn on whether the retailer had paid any ransom.
“We are not discussing any of the details of our interaction with the threat actor, including this subject, but that subject is fully shared with the NCA,” he said.
It is estimated that the cyber attack will cost M&S up to £300m this year.
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Days after M&S was attacked, the Co-op was targeted and forced to shut down some internal systems.
Harrods was then hacked, and also had to shut some systems despite its website and shops continuing to operate.
Of those arrested, a 17-year-old British male and a 19-year-old Latvian male were from the West Midlands.
A 19-year-old man was from London and a 20-year-old woman from Staffordshire.
Royal Mail is to be allowed to scrap Saturday second-class stamp deliveries, under a series of reforms proposed by the communications regulator.
From 28 July, Royal Mail will also be allowed to deliver second-class letters on alternate weekdays, Ofcom said.
The post will still be delivered within three working days of collection from Monday to Friday.
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The proposals had already been raised by Ofcom after a consultation was announced in 2024, and the scale back was proposed early this year.
Royal Mail had repeatedly failed to meet the so-called universal service obligation to deliver post within set periods of time.
Those delivery targets are now being revised downwards.
Rather than having to have 93% of first-class mail delivered the next day, 90% will be legally allowed.
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The target for second-class mail deliveries will be lowered from 98.5% to arrive within three working days to 95%.
A review of stamp prices has also been announced by Ofcom amid concerns over affordability, with a consultation set to be launched next year.
It’s good news for Royal Mail and its new owner, the Czech billionaire Daniel Kretinsky. Ofcom estimates the changes will bring savings of between £250m and £425m.
A welcome change?
Unsurprisingly, the company welcomed the announcement.
“It is good news for customers across the UK as it supports the delivery of a reliable, efficient and financially sustainable universal service,” said Martin Seidenberg, the group chief executive of Royal Mail’s parent company, International Distribution Services.
“It follows extensive consultation with thousands of people and businesses to ensure that the postal service better reflects their needs and the realities of how customers send and receive mail today.”
Citizens Advice, however, doubted whether services would improve as a result of the changes.
“Today, Ofcom missed a major opportunity to bring about meaningful change,” said Tom MacInnes, the director of policy at Citizens Advice.
“Pushing ahead with plans to slash services and relax delivery targets in the name of savings won’t automatically make letter deliveries more reliable or improve standards.”
Acknowledging long delays “where letters have taken weeks to arrive”, Ofcom said it set Royal Mail new enforceable targets so 99% of mail has to be delivered no more than two days late.
Changing habits
Less than a third of letters are sent now than 20 years ago, and it is forecast to fall to about a fifth of the letters previously sent.
According to Ofcom research, people want reliability and affordability more than speedy delivery.
Royal Mail has been loss-making in recent years as revenues fell.
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In response to Ofcom’s changes, a government spokesperson said: “The public expects a well-run postal service, with letters arriving on time across the country without it costing the earth. With the way people use postal services having changed, it’s right the regulator has looked at this.
“We now need Royal Mail to work with unions and posties to deliver a service that people expect, and this includes maintaining the principle of one price to send a letter anywhere in the UK”.
Ofcom said it has told Royal Mail to hold regular meetings with consumer bodies and industry groups to hear their experiences implementing the changes.
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