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Elon Musk is about to move the goalpost on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program in a masterful way that will allow him to claim a win.

Don’t be fooled.

I asked Grok, Musk’s “truth-seeking AI”, to list all of the CEO’s timelines for Tesla achieving self-driving and then compared them to reality:

  • 2015: Predicted full autonomy by 2018.
    • Reality: Not achieved; Tesla cars still required human supervision.
  • 2016: Claimed full autonomy from LA to New York by 2017, all Teslas as robotaxis by 2020.
    • Reality: Did not happen; FSD remained in development.
  • 2018: Full self-driving capability in “3 to 6 months”.
    • Reality: Missed, FSD still required human supervision.
  • 2019: Early access FSD by year-end, full unsupervised driving in 2020.
    • Reality: Limited beta release in 2020, but not unsupervised.
  • 2020: Very close to Level 5, quantum leap in FSD.
    • Reality: FSD Beta launched, but still Level 2 with human oversight.
  • 2021: Full self-driving, 1 million robo-taxis by year-end.
    • Reality: Neither achieved; FSD remained in beta.
  • 2022: Full self-driving by end of 2022 or May 2023.
    • Reality: Did not reach this milestone; FSD still not fully autonomous.
  • 2023: Reiterated confidence in achieving full self-driving.
    • Reality: No full autonomy achieved; continued FSD improvements but still supervised.
  • 2024: Announced unsupervised FSD in Texas and California for Q2 2025.
    • Reality: As of early 2025, this has not yet been launched.
  • 2025: Specified launch of unsupervised FSD in Texas for June 2025.
    • Reality: As of now, this has not been confirmed to have occurred; the timeline is still within the projected future, so no definitive comparison to reality can be made yet.

That’s about as embarrassing as it gets, but many Tesla supporters still don’t care because they believe that now it’s going to finally happen.

As the last point states, Tesla is still within the latest timeline of “unsupervised FSD in Texas in June 2025.”

The problem is that what Tesla is planning to launch in Austin in June has very little to do with what Musk has been promising and selling to Tesla FSD buyers since 2016.

As the latest data shows, Tesla FSD is still far from unsupervised self-driving in customer vehicles, which was promised, but it has improved significantly in the last few months. The combination of the improvement and the fact that Musk can’t take many more losses with missed FSD timelines has pushed Tesla to find a solution: Waymo.

Musk has pooh-poohed Waymo’s approach to self-driving for years. He claimed its geo-fenced, mapped, teleoperation-supported approach wouldn’t scale.

Yet, that’s almost exactly what Tesla is about to launch in Austin this year.

The CEO confirmed that Tesla’s plan is a “paid unsupervised self-driving ride-hailing service using an internal fleet of Tesla vehicles” in Austin in June.

We reported that Tesla was looking to hire people to work in teleoperation to support its self-driving vehicles shortly after announcing its plan for unsupervised ride-hailing services in Texas and California last year.

The planned teleoperation, combined with the service being limited to Austin, points to Tesla launching a geo-fenced service where it will optimize FSD performance in Austin and use teleoperation to support the vehicles.

That’s exceptionally close to Waymo’s product, which has been available in many cities for years, including in Austin more recently.

As for the long-anticipated unsupervised self-driving capability in all customer vehicles produced since 2016, it looks like Musk is too scared to share a timeline after being consistently wrong for a decade.

Electrek’s Take

I can almost guarantee what will happen: Tesla will launch this project and claim to have achieved “unsupervised self-driving.”

Elon and his Tesla influencer simps will pump this up while blurring the line between this product and FSD in customer vehicles to give the impression that Tesla is still a leader in self-driving.

When, in fact, Tesla will only have achieved what Waymo delivered years ago.

Tesla won’t be closer to delivering what it promised and sold to owners since 2016: unsupervised self-driving capable of robotaxi driving in customer vehicles.

As of the latest data, Tesla FSD v13 is achieving about 500 miles between critical disengagement while Tesla’s own stated goal to be safer than humans is to surpass miles between collision with human drivers, which is at 700,000 miles, according to NHTSA.

This program in Austin is no more than a diversion, a moving of the goalpost, to give Tesla an impression of a win in self-driving and distract owners who have bought FSD and have been promised unsupervised self-driving capability for years.

Then you had the HW3 situation into the mix, and you have quite the mess.

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Affirm plans to bring Buy Now, Pay Later debit cards to more users through deal with FIS

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Affirm plans to bring Buy Now, Pay Later debit cards to more users through deal with FIS

PayPal Inc. co-founder and Affirm’s CEO Max Levchin on center stage during day one of Collision 2019 at Enercare Center in Toronto, Canada.

Vaughn Ridley | Sportsfile | Getty Images

Affirm, the online lender founded by Max Levchin, expanded beyond credit and entered the debit market four years ago with a card that let users pay over time. Now the company is making it possible for banks to offer that service to their customers.

Affirm, which pioneered the buy now, pay later business (BNPL), has partnered with FIS in a deal that will allow the fintech company to offer the pay-over-time service to its banking clients and their millions of individual customers.

Any bank that partners with FIS will be able to provide its own version of the Affirm Card, which launched in 2021, without asking customers to adopt a new piece of plastic. Consumers can access Affirm’s biweekly and monthly installment plans and have the money automatically deducted from their checking account.

There are approximately 230 million debit card users in the U.S., according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. BNPL services have traditionally been tied to credit cards or standalone financing products, rather than to debit offerings.

Affirm CEO on earnings: Consumer is thriving and shopping across the board

“Consumers today are looking for innovative and user-friendly experiences that give them flexibility and control over their money,” Jim Johnson, co-president of banking solutions at FIS, said in the press release. Affirm’s offering can help banks “offer more competitive, differentiated services through their own banking channels,” he said.

Affirm has over 335,000 merchants in its network, ranging from travel booking sites and concert ticket providers to jewelry stores and electronics providers. By bringing BNPL into the debit world, Affirm aims to provide consumers more alternatives to credit.

In its earnings report last week, Affirm reported better-than-expected quarterly revenue and posted a surprise profit from the holiday period. The stock rocketed 22% after the announcement.

Affirm’s active consumer base grew 23% year over year to 21 million users. The Affirm Card now has 1.7 million active users, up more than 136% from the year-ago quarter. Card volume has more than doubled.

In June, Affirm and Apple announced plans for U.S. Apple Pay users on iPhones and iPads to be able to apply for loans directly through Affirm.

WATCH: PayPal shares plunge 12% despite earnings beat as growth slows in card processing

PayPal shares plunge 12% despite earnings beat as growth slows in card processing

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British oil major BP reports sharp drop in fourth-quarter profit, vows strategy reset

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British oil major BP reports sharp drop in fourth-quarter profit, vows strategy reset

The BP logo is displayed outside a petrol station near Warminster in Wiltshire, England, on Aug. 15, 2022.

Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

British oil major BP on Tuesday posted a sharp drop in fourth-quarter profit on weaker refining margins, announcing a $1.75 billion share buyback and a pledge to “fundamentally” reset its strategy.

The energy firm posted underlying replacement cost profit (RC profit) — used as a proxy for net profit — at $1.169 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $2.99 billion in the same period of last year and with an analyst forecast of $1.2 billion, according to a LSEG poll.

The company attributed its quarterly 48% drop in RC profit to “weaker realized refining margins, higher impact from turnaround activity, seasonally lower customer volumes and fuels margins and higher other businesses & corporate underlying charge.”

BP’s net debt hit just shy of $23 billion in the fourth quarter, increasing 10% year-on-year. Capital expenditure (capex) hit $3.7 billion in the October-December period, a steep drop from the $4.7 billion of fourth quarter 2024.

Despite this, the embattled energy company launched a $1.75 billion share buyback for the fourth quarter, with a dividend per ordinary share of $0.08. Analysts had previously questioned whether BP would slow down its share repurchases to reconcile its balance sheet.

“BP has guided to buybacks of $1.75bn to 1Q results, although no guidance is given beyond this. We had expected a cut to a lower run-rate with results, although there was some uncertainty whether the reduction in buyback would be given with the CMD or results. We continue to expect BP to reduce its buyback programme,” RBC analysts said Tuesday.

In its business breakdown, BP noted a 15% year-on-year drop in the RC profit performance of its gas & low carbon energy to $1.84 billion, despite a sharp recovery from $1 billion in the previous quarter. Oil production and operations jumped 37% on an annual basis, while the company flagged an overall “weak” contribution from its oil trading division following weaker refining margins.

BP shares were little changed following the results, down just 0.13% at 08:40 a.m. London time.

Reset

In a statement accompanying the results, CEO Murray Auchincloss said the company has been “reshaping” its portfolio with a “strong progress” in cutting costs and a planned further overhaul ahead.

“We now plan to fundamentally reset our strategy and drive further improvements in performance, all in service of growing cash flow and returns. It will be a new direction for bp,” he said.

Oil majors have weathered a turn in tide over the past year, as crude prices retreated after initial support following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine and Western and G7 sanctions against Moscow’s barrels. In a January trading update, BP flagged higher corporate costs, lower fourth-quarter realized refining margins and one-off charges linked to its bio-ethanol acquisition.

BP has broadly underperformed its peers, with shares falling roughly 9% over the last year to the end of last week — compared with 6% gains for Shell. The stock gained ground on Monday, following weekend reports that activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake in the struggling oil major, fueling speculation that the influential hedge fund could pressure the energy company to shift gears on its core oil and gas businesses.

Speculation has otherwise long mounted over whether BP could become a takeover target – though the company’s  £74-billion size could pose a challenge for suitors.

BP has sought to turn its fortunes through a major restructuring that included a downsize in leadership amid Auchincloss’ efforts to deliver at least $2 billion of cash savings by the end of 2026. In January, the firm expanded its cost-cutting drive to cut 4,700 of roles and last week revealed it is seeking buyers for its Ruhr Oel GmbH German refinery assets. But concerns linger over the clarity of BP’s strategic direction amid its sprawling green energy ambitions — with the company due to supply its next strategic update on Feb. 26.

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Chicago EV deals, Amazon delivery vans for all, and visits from the FBI!

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Chicago EV deals, Amazon delivery vans for all, and visits from the FBI!

On today’s wheelin’ and dealin’ episode of Quick Charge, we take a look at a $9,140 deal on a 2025 Nissan LEAF*** in Chicago, things you can do with a robotic lawnmower, and talk about the tough times Tesla is experiencing while its CEO asks if you’ve seen Kyle.

We’ve also got some fresh new additions to our list of 0% interest EV and PHEV financing offers, a hot new commercial electric van heading to market, and an industry icon reaches a new, multibillion dollar threshold of ZEV funding. All this and more – enjoy!

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.

Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show.

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