Elon Musk is about to move the goalpost on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program in a masterful way that will allow him to claim a win.
Don’t be fooled.
I asked Grok, Musk’s “truth-seeking AI”, to list all of the CEO’s timelines for Tesla achieving self-driving and then compared them to reality:
2015: Predicted full autonomy by 2018.
Reality: Not achieved; Tesla cars still required human supervision.
2016: Claimed full autonomy from LA to New York by 2017, all Teslas as robotaxis by 2020.
Reality: Did not happen; FSD remained in development.
2018: Full self-driving capability in “3 to 6 months”.
Reality: Missed, FSD still required human supervision.
2019: Early access FSD by year-end, full unsupervised driving in 2020.
Reality: Limited beta release in 2020, but not unsupervised.
2020: Very close to Level 5, quantum leap in FSD.
Reality: FSD Beta launched, but still Level 2 with human oversight.
2021: Full self-driving, 1 million robo-taxis by year-end.
Reality: Neither achieved; FSD remained in beta.
2022: Full self-driving by end of 2022 or May 2023.
Reality: Did not reach this milestone; FSD still not fully autonomous.
2023: Reiterated confidence in achieving full self-driving.
Reality: No full autonomy achieved; continued FSD improvements but still supervised.
2024: Announced unsupervised FSD in Texas and California for Q2 2025.
Reality: As of early 2025, this has not yet been launched.
2025: Specified launch of unsupervised FSD in Texas for June 2025.
Reality: As of now, this has not been confirmed to have occurred; the timeline is still within the projected future, so no definitive comparison to reality can be made yet.
That’s about as embarrassing as it gets, but many Tesla supporters still don’t care because they believe that now it’s going to finally happen.
As the last point states, Tesla is still within the latest timeline of “unsupervised FSD in Texas in June 2025.”
The problem is that what Tesla is planning to launch in Austin in June has very little to do with what Musk has been promising and selling to Tesla FSD buyers since 2016.
As the latest data shows, Tesla FSD is still far from unsupervised self-driving in customer vehicles, which was promised, but it has improved significantly in the last few months. The combination of the improvement and the fact that Musk can’t take many more losses with missed FSD timelines has pushed Tesla to find a solution: Waymo.
Musk has pooh-poohed Waymo’s approach to self-driving for years. He claimed its geo-fenced, mapped, teleoperation-supported approach wouldn’t scale.
Yet, that’s almost exactly what Tesla is about to launch in Austin this year.
The planned teleoperation, combined with the service being limited to Austin, points to Tesla launching a geo-fenced service where it will optimize FSD performance in Austin and use teleoperation to support the vehicles.
That’s exceptionally close to Waymo’s product, which has been available in many cities for years, including in Austin more recently.
As for the long-anticipated unsupervised self-driving capability in all customer vehicles produced since 2016, it looks like Musk is too scared to share a timeline after being consistently wrong for a decade.
Electrek’s Take
I can almost guarantee what will happen: Tesla will launch this project and claim to have achieved “unsupervised self-driving.”
Elon and his Tesla influencer simps will pump this up while blurring the line between this product and FSD in customer vehicles to give the impression that Tesla is still a leader in self-driving.
When, in fact, Tesla will only have achieved what Waymo delivered years ago.
Tesla won’t be closer to delivering what it promised and sold to owners since 2016: unsupervised self-driving capable of robotaxi driving in customer vehicles.
As of the latest data, Tesla FSD v13 is achieving about 500 miles between critical disengagement while Tesla’s own stated goal to be safer than humans is to surpass miles between collision with human drivers, which is at 700,000 miles, according to NHTSA.
This program in Austin is no more than a diversion, a moving of the goalpost, to give Tesla an impression of a win in self-driving and distract owners who have bought FSD and have been promised unsupervised self-driving capability for years.
Construction and mining giant Caterpillar has reached a major milestone for its autonomous haulage system (AHS), reaching one million tons (!) of aggregate hauled by the company’s massive self-driving trucks.
The milestone was reached as part of an ongoing collaboration between Cat and Luck Stone’s Bull Run Quarry in Chantilly, Virginia to help demonstrate the worth of Caterpillar’s in-house AHS solution, and goes a long way towards proving to doubters of autonomous technology that AHS has what it takes to safely and dependably operate in a working quarry.
Reaching the one million tons hauled autonomously milestone confirms that autonomous haulage can deliver consistent, repeatable performance. It also signals how autonomous solutions will address skilled labor shortages, improve site safety, increase operational efficiency, and upskill quarry employees to run autonomy.
With the success of the Luck Stone pilot at Bull Run, however, that mining/quarry imbalance may not be the status quo for much longer.
“This milestone is a powerful demonstration of what’s possible when we collaborate with our customers to deliver solutions for their critical needs,” explains Denise Johnson, Caterpillar Group President, Resource Industries. “Reaching one million tons hauled autonomously at Bull Run shows that autonomy isn’t just for mining – it’s scalable, reliable, and ready to transform the aggregates industry. We’re proud to collaborate with Luck Stone to lead that transformation.”
Caterpillar hopes the Bull Run project sets a precedent for the broader aggregates industry, and they continue to explore opportunities to expand autonomy across additional Luck Stone sites and operations.
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The Northwest Seaport Alliance has announced the recipients of its inaugural incentive program for zero emission drayage trucks – and they’ve turned to the logistics experts at Zeem to deploy 19 battery electric semi trucks to serve the Seattle-Tacoma gateway.
The Northwest Seaport Alliance incentive program is funded by a $6.2 million grant from the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), and will see bring 19 zero emission Class 8 semi trucks (like the Kenworth T680, shown) and their associated charging infrastructure to the Puget Sound region.
“We are thankful to the Northwest Seaport Alliance for helping the region adopt electric trucks, and we invite truck operators to experience how well they are matched to the job of hauling drayage,” says Paul Gioupis, CEO of Zeem Solutions. “We have served truck fleets for several years, and our goal is to make it a compelling business decision for fleets, that is both economically and environmentally sustainable.”
19 trucks, hundreds of charging customers
NWSA announcement event, via Zeem.
In a bid to help make electrification an even more compelling option for PNW truck fleets, the new Zeem facility won’t just serve its fleet of 19 electric semi trucks – the project also includes a charging depot that will be able to serve up to 250 electric vehicles per day, with overnight parking capacity for up to 70 vehicles, including heavy-, medium-, and light-duty vehicles.
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“Nearly 4,000 short-haul trucks serve the ports of Seattle and Tacoma, traveling to nearby distribution centers and warehouses,” reads the official press release. “… operators will be able to switch to electric trucks and charging without the large amount of upfront capital typically needed for heavy-duty EVs and charging infrastructure.”
The charging site will be located near the new I-5 exit ramp just south of SeaTac Airport, along SR-99 (International Blvd./Pacific Hwy.), convenient for nearby warehouse and distribution centers that see a large volume of truck deliveries.
Electrek’s Take
Drayage trucks are typically heavy-duty Class 8 trucks that work short haul routes from ports to warehouses or loading facilities. They frequently travel back and forth along local roadways, meaning they have a high impact on air quality in a given area. And, depending on who you believe, truck emissions represent about 6% of all seaport-related diesel pollution and about 30% of all seaport-related climate pollution in the Puget Sound region – emissions that disproportionately impact communities living near port operations and along freight corridors.
As such: more electric drayage is more good news.
We had a chance to talk to Zeem CEO, Paul Gioupis, as one of our guests on Quick Charge last summer, and a lot of that discussion is still relevant today. Give it a listen (above), then let us know what you think of all this in the comments.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Zeem Solutions.
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The California Senate dropped a controversial provision of an upcoming solar law which would have broken long-standing solar contracts with California homeowners after significant public backlash over the state’s plans to do so.
For several months now, AB 942 has been working its way through the California legislature, with big changes to the way that California treats contracts for residential solar.
The state has long allowed for “net metering,” the concept that if you sell your excess solar power to the grid, it gives you a credit that you can use to draw from the grid when your solar isn’t producing.
Some 2 million homeowners in California signed contracts with 20-year terms when they purchased their solar systems, figuring that the solar panels would pay off their significant investment over the coming decades by allowing them to sell power to the grid that they generated from their rooftops.
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But this has long been a sticking point for the state’s regulated private utilities. They are in the business of selling power, so they tend to have little interest in buying it from the people they’re supposed to be selling it to.
As a result, utilities have consistently tried to get language watering down net metering contracts inserted into bills considered by the CA legislature, and the most recent one was a bit of a doozy.
The most controversial point of AB 942 was that it would break rooftop solar contracts early. At first, it was going to break all existing contracts, then was limited to only break contracts if a homeowner sells their home. The ability to transfer these contracts was key to the buying decision for many homeowners who installed solar, as the ability to generate your own power and lower your electricity bills adds to a home’s value.
This brought anger from several rooftop solar owners and organizations associated with the industry. 100 organizations signed onto an effort to stop blaming consumers who are doing their best to reduce emissions and instead focus on the real causes of higher electricity, which the groups said are associated with high utility spending and profits.
It also resulted in several protests outside CA assemblymembers’ offices, opposing the bill. And California representatives received a high volume of comments opposing the plan to break solar contracts.
But, as of Tuesday, the language which would break rooftop solar contracts has been removed by the CA Senate’s Energy Committee, chaired by Senator Josh Becker, who led the effort. Language which blamed consumers for utility rate-hikes was also removed from the bill, according to the Solar Rights Alliance.
The bill is still not law, it has only moved out of the Energy Committee. But bills that advance through committee in California do not usually meet a significant amount of debate when they come to a floor vote, due to the Democratic supermajority in the state. It seems likely that if this bill advances to a vote, it will pass.
Electrek’s Take
The bill is still not perfect for solar homeowners. It disallows anyone with a yearly electricity bill of under $300 from getting the “California Climate Credit,” which is a refund to state utility customers paid for by California’s carbon fee on polluting industry.
The justification is thin for removing this credit from homeowners who are doing even more for the climate by installing solar… but it turns out that limitation probably won’t affect many customers, because most solar customers will still pay a yearly grid connection tax of around $300/year, and most solar customers still have a small electricity bill anyway at the end of the year.
Now, the question of a grid connection fee is another point of possible contention. This has been referred to as a “tax on the sun” in some jurisdictions, and it does feel like an attempt to nickel-and-dime customers who are contributing to climate reductions and should not be penalized for doing so. However, there is at least some rationality in the concept that they should pay to use infrastructure (but then… isn’t that the point of taxes, to build infrastructure for people to use?).
In short, even if it’s not perfect for every solar homeowner, we can consider this a win, and an example of how, at least with functional governments (unlike the US’ one), the public can and should be able to stop bad laws, or bad portions of laws, with enough public effort.
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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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