Ukraine war: Peace talks risk short-term win that rewards Putin whose red lines haven’t shifted
Donald Trump has promised peace talks and teased the prospect of ending the war in Ukraine but, in the background, there are potential complications.
Here’s what Sky News’ experts think about what America’s new military policy and these planned negotiations could mean for Russia, the US, and Ukraine – along with its aspirations to join its European allies in NATO.
A short-term win that risks rewarding Putin
by Mark Stone, US correspondent
In the Oval Office, President Trump refused to say that Ukraine is an equal member of the negotiation with Russia to end the war. That refusal marks the end of a remarkable day.
I think what we have seen over the day, from an American perspective, is the confirmation of a profound shift in American influence, power and footprint in Europe. A ground-shifting moment.
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Trump and Putin to ‘end Ukraine war’
The post-WWII principle of American leadership, of America as the leading protector of Western principles and Western territory, seems to have been deeply eroded, maybe abandoned.
For the first time, America has said that its priorities prevent it from being focused on Europe.
The call between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin is the first by a US president since Biden spoke to Putin in December 2021 – before the invasion.
Ukraine latest: Trump and Putin plan to meet
President Trump was effusive in how he framed the call which was an hour and a half long – it was positive and we’re told he sees Russia as a ‘great competitor and at times an adversary’.
We don’t know what President Trump said to President Putin, what he committed to him, what he didn’t. The US defence secretary certainly seems to have conceded some key bargaining chips to Russia – land, no NATO membership or protection for Ukraine.
Trump’s mission has been to stop the fighting. He might do that – a big short-term win for him to trumpet to the American people.
The concern in Europe is that it’s a short-term win; that it will reward Putin; that America’s retreat will weaken Europe and maybe leave Putin to fight another day.
Trump, who met Ukraine’s president in September, appears ready to concede to some of Russia’s demands. Pic: Reuters
Putin’s red lines on NATO expansion haven’t shifted
by Ivor Bennett, Moscow correspondent
We knew there’d be contact between the two leaders at some point but this is still a hugely significant moment.
It fires the starting gun on the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, and it may prove a watershed moment for other matters too – NATO unity, Ukrainian sovereignty and Russia-US cooperation.
Ukraine seems to be the issue on which everything else hinges when it comes to Washington and Moscow resuming ties – unlock that and Trump seems to believe a relationship can blossom: “We each talked about the strengths of our respective nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together”.
But at what cost? It’s a question Kyiv will be asking itself with trepidation.
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Donald Trump clearly wants to be remembered as the president who ended the war and healed the world, and it seems he’s even willing to travel to Moscow in order to make that happen.
For Bill Clinton and George W Bush it was a regular port of call, visiting five times and seven times respectively. Barack Obama came twice, but after his trip in 2013 for a G20 summit, the visits suddenly stopped. The reason – Russia annexed Crimea.
In 2000, America – under Bill Clinton – had a better relationship with Putin. Pic: AP
So given everything that’s happened since then, it would be quite the coup for the Kremlin if Donald Trump did visit.
Russia’s so-called special military operation wasn’t supposed to end in negotiations, but the leader of the free world flying into Moscow on a peace mission? You can see how Russia could spin that as a victory over the collective West.
But that’s not to say that a peace deal will be easy.
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There’s one line in the Kremlin’s read-out of the call that makes you wonder. It reads: “President Putin, for his part, mentioned the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflict”.
When Vladimir Putin talks about root causes, he means NATO expansion.
That’s what he claims is the reason for the war in Ukraine. And stating this in the call with Trump suggests his red lines haven’t shifted – no NATO membership for Ukraine, and that Kyiv must withdraw its troops from the four Ukrainian territories Russia currently occupies.
Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump he “will not back down” from Russia’s goals in Ukraine during a phone call today, the Kremlin has said.
The Russian president spoke to his US counterpart for almost an hour, and Mr Trump “again raised the issue of an early end to military action” in Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters.
In response, Mr Putin said “Russia will not back down” from its aims there, which include “the elimination of the well-known root causes that led to the current state of affairs,” Mr Ushakov said.
The phrase “root causes” is shorthand for Moscow’s argument that it was compelled to invade Ukraine in order to prevent the country from joining NATO.
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Trump and Putin’s latest call on Ukraine
Ukraine and its European allies say this is a pretext to justify what they call an imperial-style war, but Mr Trump has previously shown sympathy with Russia.
At the same time, Mr Putin told the US president that Russia is ready to continue negotiating, the aide said.
The Russian president said any prospective peace deal must see Ukraine give up its NATO bid and recognise his country’s territorial gains.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, seen with Mr Trump in June, is pushing for Ukraine to join NATO. Pic: Reuters
He also briefed Mr Trump on agreements made last month, which saw Russia and Ukraine exchange prisoners of war and dead soldiers.
Specific dates for the third round of peace talks in Istanbul were not discussed – nor was the US decision to halt some shipments of critical weapons to Ukraine.
Mr Putin and Mr Trump’s call came after the Pentagon confirmed some weapons due to be sent to Ukraine have been held as it reviews military stockpiles.
The paused shipments include air defence missiles and precision-guided artillery, two people familiar with the situation have said.
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The decision led to Ukraine calling in the acting US envoy to Kyiv on Wednesday to underline the importance of military aid from Washington.
Kyiv also cautioned that the move would weaken Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against intensifying Russian airstrikes and battlefield advances.
Mr Putin and Mr Trump’s phone call was the sixth they have publicly disclosed since the US president returned to the White House in January.
Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill’ has been passed by the US congress, sending it to the president to sign into law.
The controversial tax breaks and spending cuts package cleared its final hurdle as the Republican-controlled House of Representatives narrowly approved the bill with a 218-214 vote.
The bill delivers tax breaks Mr Trump promised in his 2024 election campaign, cuts health and food safety programmes, and zeroes out dozens of green energy incentives.
According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO), it will lower tax revenues by $4.5trn over 10 years and add $3.4trn to the US’s $36.2trn debt.
But despite concerns over the 869-page bill’s price tag – and its hit to healthcare programmes – Republicans largely lined up in support, with just two rebelling on the vote.
House Speaker Mike Johnson is congratulated following the vote. Pic: Reuters
Every Democrat in Congress voted against the bill, blasting it as a giveaway to the wealthy that will leave millions of Americans uninsured.
House Speaker Mike Johnson made the Republicans’ closing argument for the bill, telling Congress: “For everyday Americans, this means real, positive change that they can feel.”
Earlier, the House’s Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries gave a record-breaking eight-hour and 44-minute speech against it.
“The focus of this bill, the justification for all of the cuts that will hurt everyday Americans, is to provide massive tax breaks for billionaires,” he said.
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The bill’s spending cuts largely target Medicaid, the health programme that covers 71 million Americans on low incomes.
It will tighten enrolment standards, institute a work requirement and clamp down on a funding mechanism used by states to boost federal payments.
The changes could leave nearly 12 million people without health insurance, according to the CBO.
On the other side of the ledger, it will stave off tax increases that were due to hit most Americans at the end of the year, when tax cuts from President Trump’s first term were due to expire.
It also sets up new tax breaks for overtime pay, seniors and tipped income.
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The bill narrowly passed the US Senate on Tuesday after vice president JD Vance cast the deciding vote to break a 50-50 tie.
Mr Trump will sign it into law on Friday at 5pm local time (10pm in the UK), the White House said.
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